Whats up with the Baylor/BYU line?

BYU -3?

Latrobe said:

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Whats up with the Baylor/BYU line?

BYU -3?

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bookmakers know baylor being ranked in top 10 is a joke.

Latrobe said:

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Whats up with the Baylor/BYU line?

BYU -3?

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Probably a pick em on a neutral field. I would have it at BYU -2.5 in Provo, so -3 sounds right.

Agreed, Baylor overrated as usual.

texasaggie2015 said:

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Week two picks. I'll add to this post as I find more plays.

Duke at Northwestern under 58.5: This total just keeps moving up and it's reached the point where I have to play it. I have no idea why it's so high. Duke is a bad football team but we're all familiar with Mike Elko and I have no doubt he'll come up with a game plan to limit a Northwestern offense that doesn't scare me in the first place. Wildcats held Nebraska to a respectable 28 points in a win in their opener... and this Duke offense is much worse. I expect a 31-17 type game. The under should hit.

South Alabama at Central Michigan -4.5: I don't blame you one bit if you cringe as you place this bet but you should be confident. This is a pretty good Chippewas team led by Jim McElwain and they just put up 44 points against Oklahoma State in Stillwater. The bad news is they gave up 50+... but the good news is South Alabama doesn't have near the weapons the Cowboys do. This is a tough road trip for a Jags team that flat out sucks on the road... they're 4-25 as the road team since 2017. The Chippewas are rested and the better team. Lay the points.

Washington State +17.5 at #19 Wisconsin: I'm well aware that Washington State wasn't impressive last week against Idaho, but I'm a firm believer in transfer QB Cam Ward and think he's going to be one of the most electric players in the country as the year goes on. That being said, the Wisconsin defense won't make it easy for him and the Cougars... but I do think Ward will make enough plays to keep this within the number. The Badgers only blowout teams that can't throw, and Cam Ward can throw the football. The Badger offense will also dominate time of possession and pound the football which will give them less time to ultimately pull away. 17.5 points is too much. Take the Coogs and the points.

Maryland -27 at Charlotte: Look, I hate taking four touchdown favorites on the road... so if I'm doing it, it's with good reason. Charlotte just might be the worst FBS team in college football. The offense is rough (they're down to their third string QB) and the defense is even worse (they've given up 40+ to both William and Mary and FAU). Maryland looked rusty in week one against Buffalo but I expect things to gel this weekend. They have a tendency of putting up big numbers in non conference play. Taulia Tagovailoa and the Terps will score 50+ in this one and should cover the large spread.

Houston +4.5 at Texas Tech: It's certainly not an easy spot for the Coogs having to travel to Lubbock, but I do believe they're the better team so I'll gladly take the points here. Normally I'll avoid betting on a team when I already have big money on their season win total, but I'm making an exception in this one. Houston had a tough time with a pesky UTSA team last week, but expect a much better performance this week. They should keep this close and cover the spread. I also wouldn't be opposed to taking the money line here.

Northern Illinois +6.5 at Tulsa: This line popped out to me immediately. I don't think the Golden Hurricanes are a full touchdown better than NIU even at home. I think this spread should be closer to 2.5 in favor of Tulsa, so I'll gladly take the Huskies to cover 6.5. Look, Tulsa just isn't very good and NIU is a legit MAC contender. The Huskies showed signs of rust against Eastern Illinois last week, but they'll be ready to play and this should be a close game from start to finish.

Kentucky +5.5 at Florida: Week two can be very profitable if you're able to find spots where there may be an overreaction from week one. I think that might be the case here as Florida comes off a great win against Utah. I'll give Florida credit, it was a fantastic win... but if it wasn't for that win, I think this game would be close to a pick em. I need to see more from the Gators before I buy in and this is a classic let down spot against a solid conference opponent. Kentucky didn't blow anyone away last week but they were likely looking ahead to this matchup. This should be a close game and I expect the Cats to keep it within the number at The Swamp.

Oregon State at Fresno State PK: I'll be transparent. I do worry that Fresno State might be looking ahead to their matchup with USC next week. That being said, when you can take the better team at home as a pick em, you gotta pull the trigger. Oregon State is coming off a nice win against Boise State, but that had more to do with the Broncos crapping their pants than anything else. I believe they turned the ball over four times in the first half. Give the Beavers credit for taking advantage, but I don't want to overreact to the result. Fresno State is the better team and I expect senior QB Jake Haener to lead his team to a nice home win in this spot.

Mississippi State -10.5 at Arizona: Mike Leach and #Pac12AfterDark in the same game? Inject that into my veins. I had Arizona as one of the worst P5 teams in college football heading into the year and that hasn't changed even after last week's win over San Diego State. The Aztecs played horribly and I'm far from sold on the Wildcats. Mississippi State has the much better team and I expect Will Rogers to have his way with the Wildcat defense and quiet the crowd early... if there's even a crowd to begin with. The Dogs will roll here and cover the spread with ease.

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We're on opposing ends on this one, but I ended up taking Florida to cover. You may be right that we are overreacting to Kentucky's lukewarm performance last week. Kentucky may be able to bottle up Richardson but if not they are in trouble.

I decided not to bet Mississippi State but I'm watching them closely… very interesting team. They have a chance to be really good.

Week 2 card:

Georgia State +7.5 vs. North Carolina
UTSA -2.5 at Army
Kansas State -7.5 vs. Missouri
Tennessee -6 at Pitt
Tennessee/Pitt over 67
Illinois -4 vs. Virginia
West Virginia-13.5 vs. Kansas
Florida -6 vs. Kentucky
Hawaii +51.5 at Michigan
ML Parlay: Penn State/Notre Dame/Air Force/Texas A&M/West Virginia/Oklahoma/Auburn

Season: 5-7-1

Rough start for me so definitely fade my picks but I'm pretty excited for this card.

Fair enough. Good luck!

Adding one....

Eastern Michigan +11.5 at Louisiana Lafayette: I think this should be closer to Eastern Michigan +7.5 and think the line is inflated a bit due to the Cajuns recent success. Billy Napier is gone. QB Levi Lewis graduated. Lots of other starters on both sides have moved on. This is not the same ULL team and I expect them to take a big step back this year. Eastern Michigan has a pretty potent passing attack and will be able to score the ball against ULL defense. The Eagles leave a lot to be desired defensively, but ULL doesn't quite have the weapons on offense to pull away. ULL should win this game, but EMU has enough to keep it within the number. Look for a 6-10 point Cajuns victory and an Eagles cover.

texasaggie2015 said:

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Week two picks. I'll add to this post as I find more plays.

Duke at Northwestern under 58.5: This total just keeps moving up and it's reached the point where I have to play it. I have no idea why it's so high. Duke is a bad football team but we're all familiar with Mike Elko and I have no doubt he'll come up with a game plan to limit a Northwestern offense that doesn't scare me in the first place. Wildcats held Nebraska to a respectable 28 points in a win in their opener... and this Duke offense is much worse. I expect a 31-17 type game. The under should hit.

South Alabama at Central Michigan -4.5: I don't blame you one bit if you cringe as you place this bet but you should be confident. This is a pretty good Chippewas team led by Jim McElwain and they just put up 44 points against Oklahoma State in Stillwater. The bad news is they gave up 50+... but the good news is South Alabama doesn't have near the weapons the Cowboys do. This is a tough road trip for a Jags team that flat out sucks on the road... they're 4-25 as the road team since 2017. The Chippewas are rested and the better team. Lay the points.

Washington State +17.5 at #19 Wisconsin: I'm well aware that Washington State wasn't impressive last week against Idaho, but I'm a firm believer in transfer QB Cam Ward and think he's going to be one of the most electric players in the country as the year goes on. That being said, the Wisconsin defense won't make it easy for him and the Cougars... but I do think Ward will make enough plays to keep this within the number. The Badgers only blowout teams that can't throw, and Cam Ward can throw the football. The Badger offense will also dominate time of possession and pound the football which will give them less time to ultimately pull away. 17.5 points is too much. Take the Coogs and the points.

Maryland -27 at Charlotte: Look, I hate taking four touchdown favorites on the road... so if I'm doing it, it's with good reason. Charlotte just might be the worst FBS team in college football. The offense is rough (they're down to their third string QB) and the defense is even worse (they've given up 40+ to both William and Mary and FAU). Maryland looked rusty in week one against Buffalo but I expect things to gel this weekend. They have a tendency of putting up big numbers in non conference play. Taulia Tagovailoa and the Terps will score 50+ in this one and should cover the large spread.

Houston +4.5 at Texas Tech: It's certainly not an easy spot for the Coogs having to travel to Lubbock, but I do believe they're the better team so I'll gladly take the points here. Normally I'll avoid betting on a team when I already have big money on their season win total, but I'm making an exception in this one. Houston had a tough time with a pesky UTSA team last week, but expect a much better performance this week. They should keep this close and cover the spread. I also wouldn't be opposed to taking the money line here.

Northern Illinois +6.5 at Tulsa: This line popped out to me immediately. I don't think the Golden Hurricanes are a full touchdown better than NIU even at home. I think this spread should be closer to 2.5 in favor of Tulsa, so I'll gladly take the Huskies to cover 6.5. Look, Tulsa just isn't very good and NIU is a legit MAC contender. The Huskies showed signs of rust against Eastern Illinois last week, but they'll be ready to play and this should be a close game from start to finish.

Kentucky +5.5 at Florida: Week two can be very profitable if you're able to find spots where there may be an overreaction from week one. I think that might be the case here as Florida comes off a great win against Utah. I'll give Florida credit, it was a fantastic win... but if it wasn't for that win, I think this game would be close to a pick em. I need to see more from the Gators before I buy in and this is a classic let down spot against a solid conference opponent. Kentucky didn't blow anyone away last week but they were likely looking ahead to this matchup. This should be a close game and I expect the Cats to keep it within the number at The Swamp.

Oregon State at Fresno State PK: I'll be transparent. I do worry that Fresno State might be looking ahead to their matchup with USC next week. That being said, when you can take the better team at home as a pick em, you gotta pull the trigger. Oregon State is coming off a nice win against Boise State, but that had more to do with the Broncos crapping their pants than anything else. I believe they turned the ball over four times in the first half. Give the Beavers credit for taking advantage, but I don't want to overreact to the result. Fresno State is the better team and I expect senior QB Jake Haener to lead his team to a nice home win in this spot.

Mississippi State -10.5 at Arizona: Mike Leach and #Pac12AfterDark in the same game? Inject that into my veins. I had Arizona as one of the worst P5 teams in college football heading into the year and that hasn't changed even after last week's win over San Diego State. The Aztecs played horribly and I'm far from sold on the Wildcats. Mississippi State has the much better team and I expect Will Rogers to have his way with the Wildcat defense and quiet the crowd early... if there's even a crowd to begin with. The Dogs will roll here and cover the spread with ease

Eastern Michigan +11.5 at Louisiana Lafayette: I think this should be closer to Eastern Michigan +7.5 and think the line is inflated a bit due to the Cajuns recent success. Billy Napier is gone. QB Levi Lewis graduated. Lots of other starters on both sides have moved on. This is not the same ULL team and I expect them to take a big step back this year. Eastern Michigan has a pretty potent passing attack and will be able to score the ball against ULL defense. The Eagles leave a lot to be desired defensively, but ULL doesn't quite have the weapons on offense to pull away. ULL should win this game, but EMU has enough to keep it within the number. Look for a 6-10 point Cajuns victory and an Eagles cover.

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Not a shabby 7-3 day. Fantastic start to the year.

I like these for the first week of NFL action. Fingers crossed.

O 47.5 for Rashod Bateman
Ravens -7
Giants +7

Latrobe said:

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Just placed my first bets of the year:

App State and NC: Over 56.5

Cin +2.5 at Dallas (Week 2)

Kentucky -16.5 at Miami, Oh

Astros to win the American League at +160

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Man, I wish I would have laid more down on this......

Cin is -7 currently.

Zachary Klement said:

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I like these for the first week of NFL action. Fingers crossed.

O 47.5 for Rashod Bateman
Ravens -7
Giants +7

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Nice

Looking to stay red hot this year... here's my plays so far:

Purdue ML (-115) at Syracuse: I have Purdue at about -6.5 on a neutral field, so this should be around Purdue -3 at Syracuse. For those new to betting, money line (ML) means you're picking Purdue to win straight up. Tricky spot going on the road for Purdue but they should win by a field goal or so. Don't overthink this one. Pick the better team.

Western Kentucky +6.5 at Indiana: Indiana's secondary struggled mightily against Idaho last week, and I think WKU has the weapons to expose them and keep this game close the whole way. This is also a lookahead spot for the Hoosiers as they travel to Cincinnati next week. I think the Hilltoppers will be more motivated and they're also coming off a bye...so they should be well rested and ready to go. They should keep this within the number.

Kansas at Houston -9.5: I actually do think Kansas is much improved this year and Lance Leipold has done a fantastic job there. You gotta think it's only a matter of time before a bigger program comes calling. That said, Houston is the much better football team and this number is off. I think this is an overreaction to Kansas' overtime win over West Virginia last week. I have UH as a two touchdown favorite, so I'm trusting my numbers. Clayton Tune should have his way with the Jayhawk secondary and I expect the Coogs to get off to a fast start and never look back. Take Houston here.

Arkansas State at Memphis -14: This is another game where my numbers do not match what the oddsmakers came up with at all. I know this isn't the same caliber Memphis team we've seen over the last 8 years or so, but they're still lightyears ahead of Arkansas State. The Red Wolves just simply suck. Don't put stock into what they did against Grambling.. Grambling is a bad team. And I know they kept it somewhat respectable against Ohio State but we all know the Buckeyes didn't care about that game. My numbers have this at Memphis -20.5 and I think they'll win by at least three touchdowns. Lay the points and ride with the Tigers.

Buffalo at Coastal Carolina -14: I LOVE this spot for Coastal Carolina. Buffalo is off to an 0-2 start this season, and after losing to Holy Cross on a Hail Mary, I highly doubt they'll be motivated on the road in a brutal spot for them. Yes, Coastal Carolina almost suffered an unexplainable loss to Gardner-Webb... but they won the game and I expect them to be desperate to shake it off and make a statement. I often defer to the better coaching staff in spots like this. Coastal Carolina and Jamey Chadwell have the edge there and it's not even close. I expect a 45-17 type game and an easy cover. I think we're seeing a massive overreaction after Coastal's close call last week and this line should be closer to -20.

Kansas at Houston over 57.5: I'm already on Houston -9.5, but I'm jumping on this total too. This Houston offense is legit with senior QB Clayton Tune and one of the best WRs in the country in Nathaniel Dell. The other side of the ball has been a problem for them as they give up 30 PPG. Kansas still stinks but they're improving fast like I mentioned before and the offense is way ahead of their defense. They should be able to get to 21-28 points in this one and I think the Cougar offense will easily get to 40+. 45-24 final score sounds right and this would get us over the total and give us a Houston cover as well. Lock it in.

North Texas +3 at UNLV: Take note that the line is North Texas +2.5 and I'm buying a half point to get to +3 to be safe. I don't have a lot to say about this one, but I strongly believe the wrong team is favored and the market is overreacting to UNLV playing a P5 school (Cal) close last week. This is a great spot to fade them. Not only does Cal stink and you shouldn't put too much stock into the result, but this is a classic letdown spot for a G5 team coming off a hard fought game on the road. North Texas is just the better team and my numbers disagree with the line. I have North Texas as a 6-point favorite on a neutral field so this line should be around UNT -3 or -3.5.

Louisiana Tech +34 at Clemson: Yeah I know, this one made me cringe too but hear me out. Clemson doesn't really blow out teams in non-conference play. They're 1-7 against the spread in September in the last three seasons. They also haven't covered in 6 straight games when favored by 30+. Oh, and they also have a huge game against Wake Forest this week. Will the Tigers lose this game? Absolutely not. But I do think Dabo Swinney wants to come out of this game healthy and ready for conference play and will keep things vanilla. No need to run up the score. Louisiana Tech likes to sling the ball around and will score enough points to keep this within the number. Hell, 45-14 is a win for us. Lock it in.

boy09 said:

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Zachary Klement said:

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I like these for the first week of NFL action. Fingers crossed.

O 47.5 for Rashod Bateman
Ravens -7
Giants +7

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Nice

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Really lucked into that Bateman O, got it all on one catch, but I'll take it!

I also had a parlay that had:
U 51.5 for the Cowboys-Bucs game
Giants +7
Eagles ML
Ravens -7

I had a feeling the Giants were going to win and wish I went with my gut and took them ML.

I like the Giants again this week and think the Browns should be easy money -6 against the Jets.

Adding a couple:

Kansas at Houston over 57.5: I'm already on Houston -9.5, but I'm jumping on this total too. This Houston offense is legit with senior QB Clayton Tune and one of the best WRs in the country in Nathaniel Dell. The other side of the ball has been a problem for them as they give up 30 PPG. Kansas still stinks but they're improving fast like I mentioned before and the offense is way ahead of their defense. They should be able to get to 21-28 points in this one and I think the Cougar offense will easily get to 40+. 45-24 final score sounds right and this would get us over the total and give us a Houston cover as well. Lock it in.

North Texas +3 at UNLV: Take note that the line is North Texas +2.5 and I'm buying a half point to get to +3 to be safe. I don't have a lot to say about this one, but I strongly believe the wrong team is favored and the market is overreacting to UNLV playing a P5 school (Cal) close last week. This is a great spot to fade them. Not only does Cal stink and you shouldn't put too much stock into the result, but this is a classic letdown spot for a G5 team coming off a hard fought game on the road. North Texas is just the better team and my numbers disagree with the line. I have North Texas as a 6-point favorite on a neutral field so this line should be around UNT -3 or -3.5.

Week 2: 6-4
Season: 11-11-1

Decent bounce back. Still hanging out around the .500 line.

Picks coming later today.

texasaggie2015 said:

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Adding a couple:

Kansas at Houston over 57.5: I'm already on Houston -9.5, but I'm jumping on this total too. This Houston offense is legit with senior QB Clayton Tune and one of the best WRs in the country in Nathaniel Dell. The other side of the ball has been a problem for them as they give up 30 PPG. Kansas still stinks but they're improving fast like I mentioned before and the offense is way ahead of their defense. They should be able to get to 21-28 points in this one and I think the Cougar offense will easily get to 40+. 45-24 final score sounds right and this would get us over the total and give us a Houston cover as well. Lock it in.

North Texas +3 at UNLV: Take note that the line is North Texas +2.5 and I'm buying a half point to get to +3 to be safe. I don't have a lot to say about this one, but I strongly believe the wrong team is favored and the market is overreacting to UNLV playing a P5 school (Cal) close last week. This is a great spot to fade them. Not only does Cal stink and you shouldn't put too much stock into the result, but this is a classic letdown spot for a G5 team coming off a hard fought game on the road. North Texas is just the better team and my numbers disagree with the line. I have North Texas as a 6-point favorite on a neutral field so this line should be around UNT -3 or -3.5.

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Looking at the KU/Houston over as well. I think you're correct on this one.

Other totals I'm considering:
Oklahoma/Nebraska under
Kansas State/Tulane over
BYU/Oregon over

Here's another...

Louisiana Tech +34 at Clemson: Yeah I know, this one made me cringe too but hear me out. Clemson doesn't really blow out teams in non-conference play. They're 1-7 against the spread in September in the last three seasons. They also haven't covered in 6 straight games when favored by 30+. Oh, and they also have a huge game against Wake Forest this week. Will the Tigers lose this game? Absolutely not. But I do think Dabo Swinney wants to come out of this game healthy and ready for conference play and will keep things vanilla. No need to run up the score. Louisiana Tech likes to sling the ball around and will score enough points to keep this within the number. Hell, 45-14 is a win for us. Lock it in.

Thoughts?

Shallowminded14 said:

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Thoughts?

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Not sure on that first parlay - no idea what to do with A&M… something tells me we aren't dead yet.

I like the 2nd parlay a lot.

Season: 11-11-1

Week 3:

*Texas A&M -6 vs. Miami
*Kansas/Houston over 58
*Tulane/Kansas State over 47.5
*Nevada/Iowa over 39
*Mississippi State -2.5 at LSU
*SMU +3 at Maryland
*ML Parlay: Utah/Pitt/Iowa/Wake Forest/Memphis
App State/Kansas State/Iowa State/Georgia

Keep an eye on Jacksonville State/Tulsa. I haven't seen a line yet (most FCS vs FBS lines don't come out until Friday) but I project it to be around Tulsa -14.5 or so and it wouldn't surprise me if it's smaller than that. I'll take the points with the Gamecocks there and may even sprinkle the moneyline. They will keep that game close.

Update: Well I'm on the same page with the oddsmakers... Tulsa -7. Wow.

Late addition: Vanderbilt +2.5

ND/Cal u41

BYU +3.5
KANSAS +8.5
o52 COLORADO STATE vrs WASHINGTON STATE
u73 SMU vrs MARYLAND
WASHINGTON -3
u57 UTSA vs TEXAS
u71 FRESNO STATE vs USC

ML parlay : APP STATE/USC/tu/HOUSTON/WAZZU/WASHINGTON/MARYLAND/PITT

Miami +7.5

Noon Games:

WAS PK
NYG PK
MIA +3.5
PIT +2.5
CAR/NYG u43.5
TB -.5 1Q

ATTD:

Terry McLaren
Deandre Swift
Antonio Gibson
Jeff Wilson Jr
Mike Evans

This was my NFL card…

Chargers +4.5 at Chiefs WIN
Jaguars +3.5 vs. Colts WIN
Ravens -3.5 vs. Dolphins LOSS
Packers -10 vs. Bears WIN
Bengals ML vs. Cowboys LOSS

Debating adding Monday night games…

amg405 said:

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Season: 11-11-1

Week 3:

*Texas A&M -6 vs. Miami
*Kansas/Houston over 58
*Tulane/Kansas State over 47.5
*Nevada/Iowa over 39
*Mississippi State -2.5 at LSU
*SMU +3 at Maryland
*ML Parlay: Utah/Pitt/Iowa/Wake Forest/Memphis
App State/Kansas State/Iowa State/Georgia

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2-4 day.

13-15-1 season.

Bengals killed me, wiped out my small earnings from saturday

2 out of the 5 parlays I had hit and I basically broke even. Cashed in live betting the Louisville game

9-16-1 overall in CFB
9-9 NFL

* in straight up picks.

Plays this week:

Central Michigan +28 at Penn State
Appalachian State -7 vs James Madison
Houston/Rice over 51.5
Old Dominion -5 vs Arkansas State
Southern Miss +13 at Tulane
Arkansas/Texas A&M under 48.5
Kansas State +13 at Oklahoma
Boston College +17.5 at Florida State

BAYLOR +2.5 @ IOWA STATE
BAYLOR +120
SOUTH CAROLINA -23.5 vs CHARLOTTE
TENNESSEE -10.5 vs FLORIDA
NAVY/EAST CAROLINA U48.5
IOWA/RUTGERS O34
DUKE +7 @ KANSAS
USC -5.5 @ OREGON STATE
OREGON/WAZZU O57.5

Lets have a day, Yall!