People on ESPN are saying "what does dak need to do to get paid?". I'm thinking how about score a td in the biggest game of the year (philly)

Dak is around the 10th-14th best qb in the league imho. QBs in this range can win a sb, but need an awesome team around them. The paradox is if u pay him, the chances of having a good team around him is low due to salary cap constrains.

Teams that win the sb (even make the playoffs) often have either 1) superstar qb getting paid like a superstar or 2) rooking contract qb.

Dak didn't win his crappy division this year with a rookie contract. Go thru the roster and take away ~$30 mil (daks raise) of players and how can their chances possibly go up?

I don't care what the rams or Vikings do with their qbs. Just because others overpay doesn't mean we should.

I'd rather draft a young kid and take my chances he pay off in the next four years. I like dak a lot but the salary cap situation for above avg qbs is messed up right now.

Am I wrong? Can you win with a 10-14 qb getting paid over $30mil per year?

There is almost zero chance Dallas lets Dak walk so not even sure its worth a discussion. At this point I agree with you that he's the kinda QB that can win a title, but he needs things around him to be hitting on all cylinders. He's always going to need a good OL, a good running back, and good WRs. He's also not likely to win a title without a very good defense . I think Dallas has a good not great group at OL, RB, and WRs so that really just leaves defense. Dallas has made mistakes every year by not bringing in a true playmaking safety and hopefully that move in itself takes the D up a notch and gets Dallas back into contention.

"There is almost zero chance Dallas lets Dak walk so not even sure its worth a discussion"

You are probably right. With that said, I'm more interested in if they should let him walk... I think teams find an above avg qb and think 'we need to sign him at all costs', then their cap gets screwed up and they are out of the playoffs (see the Rams).

Just like the cap screws rookie contract RB's (get used up and tossed) and needs to be adjusted, the cap kind of screws teams with above avg (but not great) qb's like Dak/Stafford/Cousing etc. Eventually, teams will get smarter and correct for this. As it is, teams all play the 'so and so got this much money so we have to pay our guy more' game. The problem is so and so wasn't worth what they got paid.

the cowboys have the 17th pick I believe. Last year, the closest qb to that slot was Dwayne Haskins who makes $3.6mil per year. Would you rather have Dak at $30m+ or Haskins at a tenth of this? If Dak had made a deep playoff run (or even won the division last year), I'd be more inclined to say I'd choose Dak and his salary. Like I said, take away $30mil of players off the cowboys (a non-playoff team) and how good are they going to be? I'd probably take a QB in the draft and take my chances. Likely not to happen, but I think it is the best move over the next four years (maximizes the chances of a deep playoff win).

benMath08: thank you for the data which are supporting my hypothesis (paying market value for an above avg but not great QB isn't usually a good move)

I should mention that the highest QB pay to win the SB (Peyton Manning) really had a crappy year as I recall (he sucked and was super fortunate to have an all time defense).

who are the 9-13 QBs better than dak?

I don't think the data really shows that.

I think it shows that Mahomes and Watson really skew the data...and QBs are signing deals every year, so a team will make the playoffs in year 2 or 3, rather than Year 1...but they aren't the top QB signed anymore.

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who are the 9-13 QBs better than dak?

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I had trouble getting to 9. Brees, Brady, Mahomes, Rodgers, Wilson, Jackson,...

There are definitely outliers, this probably isn't enough data and I'm not a statistician.

2018 Ravens were second in QB spending because of Joe Flacco, but made the playoffs because of Lamar Jackson. That's at least one data point skewing the results in favor of spending more money.

I think the data show that if you want to consistently make the playoffs, you need to either have a legit top 5-8 QB getting paid as such, or a remarkable QB on his rookie deal. If your QB isn't consensus top 5-8 (and the number here is certainly up for debate) then you need to start over with a rookie or get lucky on a Ryan Tannehill type pickup.

I think most people would put Dak somewhere around 8th to 10th best QB in the league, obviously with some room for discussion. Very few people would place Dak in the top tier.

The problem will be if he gets paid at a top 3 level. The salaries for QB scale so high that it would be almost as if the Cowboy's had 10 million less in salary cap than other teams. The opposite situation of the Patriots who effectively have had 10 million more in cap space for the better part of a decade.

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I think most people would put Dak somewhere around 8th to 10th best QB in the league, obviously with some room for discussion. Very few people would place Dak in the top tier.

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I gave you 6 names that everyone would agree are better than Dak.

Who else are you adding to this list? Cousins? Stats Padford? Current iteration of Big Ben?

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing.htm

Completion % - 13th
yards - 2nd (usually crappy teams pile on the yards)
TD - 4th
percentage passes which are TD: 12th
QBR - 5th

Depends upon which stats you like. Also, stats don't give the complete story. Dak is a leader and seems like a fine young man (no off the field nonsense) which is important. With that said, he laid a big egg in the biggest game of the year which needs to be considered.

He is young so he has upside. Definitely can argue that he is top ten.

Off the top of my head:

Definitely ahead of Dak:
Rodgers
Mahomes
Lamar Jackson
R. wilson
D. Watson


In the same ballpark as Dak:
Jimmy G
Stafford
Cousins
Goff
Wentz
Josh Allen
Kyler (a bit early but I'll put him here)
Brees (old)
Brady (old)

Generously, you could put Dak sixth. Realistically, he is in a mix with a bunch of guys between 6 and 12...

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I think the data show that if you want to consistently make the playoffs, you need to either have a legit top 5-8 QB getting paid as such, or a remarkable QB on his rookie deal. If your QB isn't consensus top 5-8 (and the number here is certainly up for debate) then you need to start over with a rookie or get lucky on a Ryan Tannehill type pickup.

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It doesn't really make much sense, as your "remarkable QB" is a Top 5-8 guy anyway.

You're basically saying that you need a Top 8 QB to have an expectations of playoffs every year. I think everyone agrees with that.

I will add that the strength of your division goes a long way in determining your playoff potential as well. Brees was a WC team at 13-3 and paid for it.

I think he is saying that a top QB can win games quasi-singlehandedly so it is possible to win a SB with your QB taking up a huge amount of the cap.

For non-elite QB's (perhaps outside of top 5-8) they need a good team around them and their cap hit won't allow this.

therefore, either have an elite QB paid like an elite QB OR have a rookie contract QB and hope you hit paydirt during that contract.

What you can't do is have a non-elite QB being paid close to what an elite QB would get.

The way QB salaries scale I honestly wonder if the Chiefs can make the playoffs if they give Mahomes what people are thinking they're going to give him. I guess we'll see but the only time in the last 5 years that the top-paid QB position made the playoffs was the 2016 Falcons (which to be fair should have won the super bowl if not for Kyle Shanahan).

To go even further, a top-5 paid QB position team has had 25 "chances" to make the playoffs in the last 5 years. They have only made the playoffs for 11 out of those 25. I'm saying it may not even matter if you have a hall of fame QB, if they are getting paid in the top 5 for that position then in the last 5 years you miss the playoffs more often than you make it. The salary cap hurdle is that high.

I'm almost thinking the cap needs to be tweeked to accommodate this problem. As it is, the top QB's will cripple their team's caps which you don't want...

Perhaps something like say your QB won't count more than the avg QB salary towards your cap (my first thought but perhaps not ideal)? Still a big advantage for having a rookie QB contract, but no where near the big deal it is now. Like I mentioned, Dak could be looking at a $30M raise this offseason, that's a lot for the cap to absorb.

They also need to tweek the cap/rookie payscale to get RB's more $$. Right now they get run into the ground for peanuts then get tossed in the scrap heap.

lespaul said:

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People on ESPN are saying "what does dak need to do to get paid?". I'm thinking how about score a td in the biggest game of the year (philly)

Dak is around the 10th-14th best qb in the league imho. QBs in this range can win a sb, but need an awesome team around them. The paradox is if u pay him, the chances of having a good team around him is low due to salary cap constrains.

Teams that win the sb (even make the playoffs) often have either 1) superstar qb getting paid like a superstar or 2) rooking contract qb.

Dak didn't win his crappy division this year with a rookie contract. Go thru the roster and take away ~$30 mil (daks raise) of players and how can their chances possibly go up?

I don't care what the rams or Vikings do with their qbs. Just because others overpay doesn't mean we should.

I'd rather draft a young kid and take my chances he pay off in the next four years. I like dak a lot but the salary cap situation for above avg qbs is messed up right now.

Am I wrong? Can you win with a 10-14 qb getting paid over $30mil per year?

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I find this argument strange and very wrong minded.
There are maybe only one or two guys alive that can win one without a strong team around them. I would be curious who you think can win one without a strong team around them? It's nonsensical thinking.

Mahomes can win games with a good team around him.

I saw D. Watson almost win games singlehandedly this year (eventually that didn't work anymore against really good teams)

Non-elite guys need an awesome team around them (that is the word I used).

You're not winning the superbowl without a good team so I agree with you. But to be Dilfer or Flacco and win it, you need an awesome team around you.

Dak had a very good team around him this year (that's why they were favored in 15 games) and still couldn't win a crappy division.

Dak is tons better than Dilfer and Flacco, dude.

So, what you said is that there's probably one guy now that can win one with a 'good' team around him?

I think Dak and Watson are very similar. Very good QBs that need a strong team around them to win. I don't think that makes Dallas any diff than a dozen other teams in the league.

The market for a good QB is what it is. You let him walk and it's a crap shoot that you find someone better.

And let's not forget what kind of teams really win it all now. It's good teams that get on a hot streak. There really are no dynasties any more. You've got to have a good QB and a stout/opportunistic defense....and get on a hot streak.

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You've got to have a good QB and a stout/opportunistic defense....and get on a hot streak.

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and be healthy.

I never said dak wasn't better than dilfer and flacco. They are the worst qbs I could think of who have won a sb. And that was sometime ago before the qbs salary pinch was so out of whack

"You let him walk and it's a crap shoot that you find someone better.". I agree it is risky. With that said, I invite you to go the the cowboys roster and cut $30 mil of players and see how they improve from this years team who went 8-8. Pick your poison. Either trust Jerry can build a bargain basement team around dak OR have loads of cash to build a team and hope you find your next qb. Risky either way. With dak it isn't obvious which way to go. If it were me I'd try and find a rookie qb. A second year starter just won the super bowl. It can happen.

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With dak it isn't obvious which way to go. If it were me I'd try and find a rookie qb. A second year starter just won the super bowl. It can happen.

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This is flawed thinking. The numbers of rookie QBs that don't make it vastly outweigh the one who won a Super Bowl in the 2nd year starter.

You have a QB you can win with in your hands. Why would you want to throw all of that away?

diehard03 said:

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who are the 9-13 QBs better than dak?

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I had trouble getting to 9. Brees, Brady, Mahomes, Rodgers, Wilson, Jackson,...

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Allen and Watson need to be added. Allen has a cannon and is as good or better of a runner than Dak. I really hadn't watched him much but after Thanksgiving came away really impressed.

"You have a QB you can win with in your hands. Why would you want to throw all of that away?"

I don't want to get rid of dak. However, the equation must involve how much it costs to keep him. I'm arguing it isn't worth the cost. The cowboys couldn't win the worst division in football with dak (I scored as many TDS as dak did in the most important game of the season). Now take away ~ 4-6 starters ($30 mil) and how will they do?

Let me put it this way, what if the market for a qb like dak were 99% of the cap (while a rookie qb takes around 1% of the cap let's pretend). Would dump dak in that hypothetical extreme situation?

98Ag99Grad said:

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diehard03 said:

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who are the 9-13 QBs better than dak?

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I had trouble getting to 9. Brees, Brady, Mahomes, Rodgers, Wilson, Jackson,...

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Allen and Watson need to be added. Allen has a cannon and is as good or better of a runner than Dak. I really hadn't watched him much but after Thanksgiving came away really impressed.

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Allen's average YPA is 75% of Dak's with a worse completion percentage and a worse TD:Int ratio. He's not better than Dak.

Dak is a top 10 QB. That's coming from someone who said he wasn't going into the season. The Cowboys' problem this year was not Dak, it was Zeke and the run game overall. That and the disappearing act of Amari. He improved a lot this year.


As you look at the salaries of successful QBs over the last five years, realize that the league was dominated by guys drafted in the early 2000s/late 90s up until very recently and very few good young QBs have come into the league until recently.

Look at the names on this list for the past 20 years and think about how many of them weren't already on their second contract. Summary: not many.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Super_Bowl_starting_quarterbacks

Kaepernick, Newton, Wilson (won), Mahomes (won) and Goff, and most of those guys lost.

Brady is no longer better than Dak

So you're taking Dak over Brady for the same price?

You're asking if I would take the better quarterback?

Hmmm.


Yes.

I just wanted to make sure you were fully aware of the insanity you're speaking.

i would absolutely take dak over brady right now. i don't think its close.

No team has ever won the SB with a QB that takes up more than 13% of their cap space. For multiple reasons (already listed above) I have my doubts that Dak is the first one to pull it off.

Then cowboys need to draft a new QB because there is no QB on the market they can get that's worth a damn for under 13% of the cap

What about the formula of pay dak more now. Have a hit in 2020 season (get higher draft picks). Maybe have a hit again in 2021 (get higher draft picks). Then in 2022 Dak's contract will look great for a top 10 qb and you will have cheaper talent through the draft.

What year are you trying to optimize because you cant optimize them all and win the superbowl.

Yeah...it's a damned if you do damned if you don't situation unfortunately. Maybe I am just being overly pessimistic.