I've been looking some into advanced analytics, particularly for receivers. It seems that WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating) is one of the most widely used formulas and one of the more reliable (yet relatively simple) statistics available for predicting fantasy receiving points.
A short article on some advanced analytics: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/69265/446/why-receiver-air-yards-matter?pg=1
The formula for WOPR is 1.5 * Target Share + 0.7 * Share of Team Air Yards. Essentially it's a combination of a receiver's share of the team's targets and targeted yards. The higher WOPR, the better.
The following site has a good sortable table for receivers' WOPR and PPR fantasy points. The idea being that a player with high WOPR and low fantasy points is a good buy-low candidate, and vice versa. Supposedly a player's WOPR even after the first 1 or 2 games is a good predictor of fantasy points for the remainder of the season (nowhere near 100% accurate, but significantly better than only looking at receiving yards or fantasy points through the first 2 games).
http://airyards.com/tables.html
There are two particular players that stand out to me through Week 10, and leads me to my main question in this post.
Marqise Lee - 0.62 WOPR
Brandin Cooks - 0.48 WOPR
At first glance, this would indicate Lee is predicted to outperform Cooks for the remainder of the season. However, if I understand correctly, WOPR is only a factor of a player's opportunity share on his own team. Obviously his actual fantasy production would then also be impacted by his team's overall passing performance.
As a rough example, since WOPR is a sum of target share and air yards share, I assume that dividing WOPR by 2 would roughly give that player's % share of the team's total passing yardage. Thus, Lee would be expected to get 31% of his team's passing production, and Cooks would be 24%. The Jaguars are averaging 207.8 passing YPG, while the Patriots are averaging 301.6 passing YPG. Based on this, I would expect their receiving YPG going forward to be:
Marqise Lee - 64 YPG (31% x 207.8)
Brandin Cooks - 72 YPG (24% x 301.6)
TLDR: In my research on fantasy football advanced analytics, the consensus statistic for predicting receiver production seems to be WOPR which (my understanding) is a player's share of his team's passing production. But wouldn't a major factor be the team's passing production as a whole? I haven't come across anything yet that seems to factor this in. Ideally something like the Air Yards table linked above. Has anyone else found anything helpful on this? Obviously you could just take the team's passing YPG into account as I did above. That's fairly helpful at Week 10 in the season, but fairly useless in the first couple weeks of the season.
A short article on some advanced analytics: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/69265/446/why-receiver-air-yards-matter?pg=1
The formula for WOPR is 1.5 * Target Share + 0.7 * Share of Team Air Yards. Essentially it's a combination of a receiver's share of the team's targets and targeted yards. The higher WOPR, the better.
The following site has a good sortable table for receivers' WOPR and PPR fantasy points. The idea being that a player with high WOPR and low fantasy points is a good buy-low candidate, and vice versa. Supposedly a player's WOPR even after the first 1 or 2 games is a good predictor of fantasy points for the remainder of the season (nowhere near 100% accurate, but significantly better than only looking at receiving yards or fantasy points through the first 2 games).
http://airyards.com/tables.html
There are two particular players that stand out to me through Week 10, and leads me to my main question in this post.
Marqise Lee - 0.62 WOPR
Brandin Cooks - 0.48 WOPR
At first glance, this would indicate Lee is predicted to outperform Cooks for the remainder of the season. However, if I understand correctly, WOPR is only a factor of a player's opportunity share on his own team. Obviously his actual fantasy production would then also be impacted by his team's overall passing performance.
As a rough example, since WOPR is a sum of target share and air yards share, I assume that dividing WOPR by 2 would roughly give that player's % share of the team's total passing yardage. Thus, Lee would be expected to get 31% of his team's passing production, and Cooks would be 24%. The Jaguars are averaging 207.8 passing YPG, while the Patriots are averaging 301.6 passing YPG. Based on this, I would expect their receiving YPG going forward to be:
Marqise Lee - 64 YPG (31% x 207.8)
Brandin Cooks - 72 YPG (24% x 301.6)
TLDR: In my research on fantasy football advanced analytics, the consensus statistic for predicting receiver production seems to be WOPR which (my understanding) is a player's share of his team's passing production. But wouldn't a major factor be the team's passing production as a whole? I haven't come across anything yet that seems to factor this in. Ideally something like the Air Yards table linked above. Has anyone else found anything helpful on this? Obviously you could just take the team's passing YPG into account as I did above. That's fairly helpful at Week 10 in the season, but fairly useless in the first couple weeks of the season.