Not a Browns fan but I think Holmgren would be making a huge mistake doing this. The Browns really need to draft a top notch defensive player in this draft and maybe catch a quarterback in the 2nd round. Their defense was terrible last year. How many picks would they lose trying to get a deal like this? Plus Im not really that sold on Bradford.

Based on the draft pick trade value chart, it would take something like:

- The Browns' 1st (#7) in 2010 and 1st in 2011

- The Browns' 1st (#7), 2nd (#38), both 3rds (#71 & 85) in 2010 and a 2nd or 3rd in 2011


Basically, the 1st overall pick is so valuable because your draft isn't dependent on anyone else that it costs a ton to move up to it from outside the 2nd or 3rd overall pick.

quote:

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- The Browns' 1st (#7), 2nd (#38), both 3rds (#71 & 85) in 2010 and a 2nd or 3rd in 2011

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#1
for
#7
#38
#38 or so(2011)
#71
#85

What a ripoff. Bradford better be a HOF for me not to label a trade like that a steal for the Rams. Not to mention that St Louis went up with the better QB, imo, Clausen - in additional to the all the other picks.

As a Browns fan, I would be devestated to see that many quality picks (that you all are mentioning) be traded just to move up to select Bradford. Too many needs on this team right now.

The good news is that Holmgren has said in front of the media that he's not going to mortgage the farm just to move up. He even jokingly referred to Mike Ditka's trade a while back when explaining his position on the matter.

That said, if the Browns were to package up only a "modest" group of picks to get Bradford and the team execs really believe he could be a franchise QB, I say do it. It's such a critical position and imperative to the team's success, for which you can look at the lack of success we've had in the past 10 years and make a clear correlation to the level of QB play that we've experienced during that time (less Derek Anderson's 2007 season when we went 10-6).

Why wouldn't they want to trade their entire draft for one can't miss player?

That would be a dumb move. I don't think any of this year's QB's will be franchise types, but I do agree that I'd put money on Clausen to be the most successful. He is talented, but also used to getting beat up and losing. He has proven that he plays through pain and still does well. He had multiple games where he led come from behind wins, or at the least gave them a chance. Those are the QB's that tend to do well in the NFL. Outside of Sanchez & Peyton, there aren't many success stories from QB's that played on stacked programs. They aren't used to playing from behind and their team not having a huge talent advantage 90% of the time. If I were a GM, I'd always question that much less mortgage your draft for one.

I'll never understand the draft values of the NFL.

Santonio Holmes/Randy Moss- 5th

Brandon Marshall- two 2nds

Donovan McNabb- 2nd and 3rd/4th

Roy Williams- 1st and 3rd (I just threw up in my mouth)

Sam Bradford?- possibly all the mess above

It all depends on what value you put on said player and how caught up you are in "the moment".

Would be a completely foolish move. The Browns are far from a QB away from being a contender. Keep building.

I doubt the Browns want to draft another ND QB anytime soon.

as already stated in this thread..that trade would be an act of complete dumbassery.

quote:

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Santonio Holmes/Randy Moss- 5th

Brandon Marshall- two 2nds

Donovan McNabb- 2nd and 3rd/4th

Roy Williams- 1st and 3rd (I just threw up in my mouth)

Sam Bradford?- possibly all the mess above

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because lots of things factor into it. how old is the player? how many years will you get that player for? how many good years are you going to get? how much will it cost you? what are your alternatives at that position? are there other risks with the player (will he quit on you? get arrested? fail a drug test? kill your team?).

not saying some of the trades you mentioned were smart, but there are lots of factors that the average fan doesn't really take into account, when they're simply looking at the player and saying "well, that guy's better than the average 3rd rounder, so why are they only getting a 3rd rounder for him?".

another factor is the market at the given time. if jerry had waited and passed on RW, he probably could have gotten boldin for less this year. much like a lot of things in life, timing is everything.

moving up to #1 costs less than you think- clearly the Rams don't want to take a $50 million dollar risk-

browns really aren't that bad for a new qb - their offensive line is stout

Bradford is the only QB worth a sheet in this draft

And Bradford has done what exactly during his college years to make you believe he is "it"??? Frankly I don't think there is a qb in this draft that isn't full of questions

Bradford has the intelligence to be great- he's got the size and the arm- much better prospect than Stafford from last year

After looking at the picks that Basketball & Chain listed above, I was curious as to where these trade values come from.

Probably old news to you all, but there is a NFL draft-pick value chart which sheds some light on the accuracy of Basketball & Chain's comment about what would be needed for the Brown's to move up from #7 to #1 overall.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/news/story?id=2410670

I guess it makes sense for the #1 overall pick to be valued so high because the entire population of players is available when you pick, but it does seem odd to value the #1 overall pick as twice as valuable as the #7 pick.

The other thing you have to take into account when valuing the draft pick is the class available.

If you have Peyton Manning available to go number 1, that pick was probably a lot more valuable to Indy than Detroit's #1 was last year for Matt Stafford.

Do you think INdy would have traded the Peyton Manning pick for #7 and next year's #1 from anyone? I don't think so. Conversely, I think Detroit would have been happy to take Oakland's #7 and this year's number #1 for Stafford. And watching Detroit take Heyward-Bey or Crabtree would have been hilarious.

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much better prospect than Stafford from last year

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Umm...no. And not based on his rookie performance, but pre-draft.

And that trade would be awful. Defense in first round, QB in second, and do what you can to get more picks, move up to the get the QB you want in the 2nd, etc. The Browns aren't at a point where they can sacrifice quantity of picks.

quote:

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but there is a NFL draft-pick value chart

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it is old news in the sense that it is old and not really used that much anymore.

Uh, in what way or fashion is Bradford a better prospect than Stafford? He's a little taller, but that's it. Stafford's arm puts everyone but Cutler & couple of others to shame. He didn't have injury concerns (yes, Bradford is "healed", but lets see what happens when he gets driven into the turf on that shoulder again). Stafford got beat up in college too and was used to NFL speed from SEC defenses, Bradford played against bad defenses for all but a few games in his college career. Oh, and Stafford got a 38 on the Wonderlic.

quote:

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it is old news in the sense that it is old and not really used that much anymore.

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McShay was on Mike & Mike this morning referring to the points needed and the translation into picks, for what the Browns would need to give up to pick #1. So I think the concept is still in place, but perhaps the graph is outdated and the values have changed, since it was created in 2004.

Obviously, this is just a base line chart with many variables that could cause the actual trade to differ, but it’s interesting to use as a starting point to formulate a "what it would take" scenario for a trade.

but perhaps the graph is outdated and the values have changed, since it was created in 2004.
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exactly. That system will find the bottom of the file very shortly. It might be used to get the conversation going, but I would say that's it.

I agree with Syd that Clausen will be the best qb pickup. He has the skills and knows how to fight through adversity. I just dont know why there is so much hype around Bradford. Yes he was a good college quarterback that played on some great teams. That shoulder injury is not going to go away though and I do not think he has what it takes to play on a struggling team much less take them to the top of the division. The Browns play in a defense heavy division and they need to draft that way.