lol Ask google to list the taxes that Americans pay, and then ask CHAT to do it.

AustinAg2K said:

---

So, what happens with AI once it has taken enough traffic away from it's source sites that they can no longer stay afloat? Where will it get new information?

---

But Google is not a source, its an indexer,. Bing, Brave and Baidu, the same.

Companies don't currently build crawl/index because it's almost impossible to take search share away from Google. Building the indexing and crawl is a whole lot easier with AI. It's a commodity now.

Logos Stick said:

---

AustinAg2K said:

---

So, what happens with AI once it has taken enough traffic away from it's source sites that they can no longer stay afloat? Where will it get new information?

---

Google is not a source, its an indexer,. Bing, Brave and Baidu, the same.

Companies don't currently build crawl/index because it's almost impossible to take search share away from Google. Building the indexing and crawl is a whole lot easier with AI. It's a commodity now.

---

I think you're missing what I am saying. Currently, websites make a lot of money from ads. With traditional search, someone searches something on Google, and Google provides a link to the website. The user goes to site, is presented a page with ads, and the company makes money. That's what pays for the site, and obviously, the more people go to the site, the more money they make.

In the AI world, when someone searches for something, they don't get a link to the original site. They get a summary of what the site said, and traffic is never driven to the original source. The original site makes no money from it, and will eventually go out of business. What happens when all the news sites, blogs, etc. go out of business? Where will the AI models get new information?

In a related note, Reddit announced they will go to a login model to be able to access the site. Similar to X or Facebook, no more extensive browsing without logging in.

Quote:

---

Reddit CEO Steve Huffman told CNBC in an interview that the company's shrinking search-referral traffic from Google played a major role in its planned efforts to require people to become "logged-in" users.

A previous Google search update designed to surface "authentic" content from internet forums helped Reddit grow its user base over the past few years, but the search giant's continued push on AI overviews and related chatting features has negatively impacted referral traffic.

"I think fundamentally that relationship between Google and the rest of the internet is evolving, and so for us, this means a continued focus on our core users that come to Reddit directly," Huffman said.

Previous Google algorithm changes would "kind of come and go," Huffman said, but the company's AI efforts represent "a fundamental shift in how the Google product works, from being a traffic driver to whatever's going on now."

---

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/29/reddit-rddt-q3-2026.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/29/microsoft-google-ai-capex-estimates.html

And a part of the NASDAQ sell-off today was related to lower hyperscaler capex projections than anticipated.

Windy City Ag said:

---

Just reading the KPIS in the earnings call:

Gemini App now has north of a billion users and is scaling faster than any Alphabet product launch in the company's history

Cloud revenue absolutely surged as mentioned

Google queries are still growing very quickly

Their tensor chip architecture is now funneling into Anthropic, Apple, and other firms tech stack

The Gemini 4 Carbon release now puts their Frontier model at #1 in most benchmarking approaches.

It sure seems like Alphabet will continue to own every digital highway going forward and monetize it pretty well.

Tesla and Alphabet are such contrasts in messaging and corporate strategy.

Musk claims capabilities that don't exist and paints ludicrously ambitious development and growth targets as achievable, snaring some fanboys along the way

Alphabet actually does the work behind the scenes and developments best in class stuff.

---

Yes, I think ultimately it will be Google that will be the AI winner or one of the winners. I don't think Musk will be one of them, neither will Microsoft or Amazon. Google has the entire ecosystem and can easily buy what they may not have.

ErnestEndeavor said:

---

In a related note, Reddit announced they will go to a login model to be able to access the site. Similar to X or Facebook, no more extensive browsing without logging in.

Quote:

---

Reddit CEO Steve Huffman told CNBC in an interview that the company's shrinking search-referral traffic from Google played a major role in its planned efforts to require people to become "logged-in" users.

A previous Google search update designed to surface "authentic" content from internet forums helped Reddit grow its user base over the past few years, but the search giant's continued push on AI overviews and related chatting features has negatively impacted referral traffic.

"I think fundamentally that relationship between Google and the rest of the internet is evolving, and so for us, this means a continued focus on our core users that come to Reddit directly," Huffman said.

Previous Google algorithm changes would "kind of come and go," Huffman said, but the company's AI efforts represent "a fundamental shift in how the Google product works, from being a traffic driver to whatever's going on now."

---

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/29/reddit-rddt-q3-2026.html

---

The woke b@sturds banned me. IP ban! So I cannot even create a new login unless I change ISPs.



I hope Reddit turns into smoke and ashes.

Quote:

---

Yes, I think ultimately it will be Google that will be the AI winner or one of the winners. I don't think Musk will be one of them, neither will Microsoft or Amazon. Google has the entire ecosystem and can easily buy what they may not have.

---

I don't know. The AWS numbers posted last night were pretty astounding. Amazon is moving towards literally a trillion in revenue from that business. It is hard to get my head around that.

Andy Jassey was talking about his expectations for the market. He think their are 6-8 models already that are good enough for most corporate workloads and expects many others to come online and catch up. The winners are the 3rd parties that can plug and play models to customer needs, not the model builders themselves.

In that world, OpenAI and Anthropic look like very shaky investments at current valuations.

Windy City Ag said:

---

Quote:

---

Yes, I think ultimately it will be Google that will be the AI winner or one of the winners. I don't think Musk will be one of them, neither will Microsoft or Amazon. Google has the entire ecosystem and can easily buy what they may not have.

---

I don't know. The AWS numbers posted last night were pretty astounding. Amazon is moving towards literally a trillion in revenue from that business. It is hard to get my head around that.

Andy Jassey was talking about his expectations for the market. He think their are 6-8 models already that are good enough for most corporate workloads and expects many others to come online and catch up. The winners are the 3rd parties that can plug and play models to customer needs, not the model builders themselves.

In that world, OpenAI and Anthropic look like very shaky investments at current valuations.

---

I agree with you completely on the 3rd parties being the winners.

I've seen perplexity get super intuitive just in the last 2-3 months where the common office schmuck can just tell it plainly what they want and it gets 80% of the way there.

The 3rd parties will make it easy for dumbasses to be productive and that's like 80% of the market on the corporate/enterprise side of the biz.

I see a major market pullback/pain as we work through all this. But damn the tech is sick and world changing.

I'm proud to say I've almost never knowingly used Google. I occasionally use Bing which is almost as evil but slightly less so...depending on who you ask....and what you are talking about.

But most of the time I'm using AI which is mostly using APIs or its own search index and sometimes third-party search providers which could be Bing or Google.

Windy City Ag said:

---

Quote:

---

Yes, I think ultimately it will be Google that will be the AI winner or one of the winners. I don't think Musk will be one of them, neither will Microsoft or Amazon. Google has the entire ecosystem and can easily buy what they may not have.

---

I don't know. The AWS numbers posted last night were pretty astounding. Amazon is moving towards literally a trillion in revenue from that business. It is hard to get my head around that.

Andy Jassey was talking about his expectations for the market. He think their are 6-8 models already that are good enough for most corporate workloads and expects many others to come online and catch up. The winners are the 3rd parties that can plug and play models to customer needs, not the model builders themselves.

In that world, OpenAI and Anthropic look like very shaky investments at current valuations.

---

AWS had the first mover advantage (as far as I know) and they became the standard quickly. Everyone else came later. No doubt, AWS is the biggest dog but I was just saying that GCP is much easier to use. AWS has been made needlessly complex and is less user-friendly. I am certified in both so I have spent a good amount of time on these platforms.
But that is just cloud, Google is far ahead in AI. They have all the important pieces and I think will be a bigger winner than Amazon is in the long run.

That said, I am curious what an AI model will look like and do in the next 5 years. Will it stall out? Or take over the world?

I think OpenAI will get acquired in the next couple of years. Anthropic will take longer but it will be bought as well.

infinity ag said:

---

Windy City Ag said:

---

Quote:

---

Yes, I think ultimately it will be Google that will be the AI winner or one of the winners. I don't think Musk will be one of them, neither will Microsoft or Amazon. Google has the entire ecosystem and can easily buy what they may not have.

---

I don't know. The AWS numbers posted last night were pretty astounding. Amazon is moving towards literally a trillion in revenue from that business. It is hard to get my head around that.

Andy Jassey was talking about his expectations for the market. He think their are 6-8 models already that are good enough for most corporate workloads and expects many others to come online and catch up. The winners are the 3rd parties that can plug and play models to customer needs, not the model builders themselves.

In that world, OpenAI and Anthropic look like very shaky investments at current valuations.

---

AWS had the first mover advantage (as far as I know) and they became the standard quickly. Everyone else came later. No doubt, AWS is the biggest dog but I was just saying that GCP is much easier to use. AWS has been made needlessly complex and is less user-friendly. I am certified in both so I have spent a good amount of time on these platforms.
But that is just cloud, Google is far ahead in AI. They have all the important pieces and I think will be a bigger winner than Amazon is in the long run.

That said, I am curious what an AI model will look like and do in the next 5 years. Will it stall out? Or take over the world?

I think OpenAI will get acquired in the next couple of years. Anthropic will take longer but it will be bought as well.

---

No one is going to want to take on the debt of OpenAI or Anthropic.

AustinAg2K said:

---

infinity ag said:

---

Windy City Ag said:

---

Quote:

---

Yes, I think ultimately it will be Google that will be the AI winner or one of the winners. I don't think Musk will be one of them, neither will Microsoft or Amazon. Google has the entire ecosystem and can easily buy what they may not have.

---

I don't know. The AWS numbers posted last night were pretty astounding. Amazon is moving towards literally a trillion in revenue from that business. It is hard to get my head around that.

Andy Jassey was talking about his expectations for the market. He think their are 6-8 models already that are good enough for most corporate workloads and expects many others to come online and catch up. The winners are the 3rd parties that can plug and play models to customer needs, not the model builders themselves.

In that world, OpenAI and Anthropic look like very shaky investments at current valuations.

---

AWS had the first mover advantage (as far as I know) and they became the standard quickly. Everyone else came later. No doubt, AWS is the biggest dog but I was just saying that GCP is much easier to use. AWS has been made needlessly complex and is less user-friendly. I am certified in both so I have spent a good amount of time on these platforms.
But that is just cloud, Google is far ahead in AI. They have all the important pieces and I think will be a bigger winner than Amazon is in the long run.

That said, I am curious what an AI model will look like and do in the next 5 years. Will it stall out? Or take over the world?

I think OpenAI will get acquired in the next couple of years. Anthropic will take longer but it will be bought as well.

---

No one is going to want to take on the debt of OpenAI or Anthropic.

---

Debt is nothing for American companies (or people). If the tech is good, there will be a buyer. It will be someone with deep pockets like Google, Amazon or Microsoft. Maybe Elon Musk in some way.

infinity ag said:

---

AustinAg2K said:

---

infinity ag said:

---

Windy City Ag said:

---

Quote:

---

Yes, I think ultimately it will be Google that will be the AI winner or one of the winners. I don't think Musk will be one of them, neither will Microsoft or Amazon. Google has the entire ecosystem and can easily buy what they may not have.

---

I don't know. The AWS numbers posted last night were pretty astounding. Amazon is moving towards literally a trillion in revenue from that business. It is hard to get my head around that.

Andy Jassey was talking about his expectations for the market. He think their are 6-8 models already that are good enough for most corporate workloads and expects many others to come online and catch up. The winners are the 3rd parties that can plug and play models to customer needs, not the model builders themselves.

In that world, OpenAI and Anthropic look like very shaky investments at current valuations.

---

AWS had the first mover advantage (as far as I know) and they became the standard quickly. Everyone else came later. No doubt, AWS is the biggest dog but I was just saying that GCP is much easier to use. AWS has been made needlessly complex and is less user-friendly. I am certified in both so I have spent a good amount of time on these platforms.
But that is just cloud, Google is far ahead in AI. They have all the important pieces and I think will be a bigger winner than Amazon is in the long run.

That said, I am curious what an AI model will look like and do in the next 5 years. Will it stall out? Or take over the world?

I think OpenAI will get acquired in the next couple of years. Anthropic will take longer but it will be bought as well.

---

No one is going to want to take on the debt of OpenAI or Anthropic.

---

Debt is nothing for American companies (or people). If the tech is good, there will be a buyer. It will be someone with deep pockets like Google, Amazon or Microsoft. Maybe Elon Musk in some way.

---

$700 billion isn't nothing, even for the largest American companies. The only way Google (or Amazon, etc.) buys someone like Anthropic is if Anthropic can't make it's commitment to Google, and they decide it is better to take over Anthropic than let them fail and not get any payments.

AustinAg2K said:

---

infinity ag said:

---

AustinAg2K said:

---

infinity ag said:

---

Windy City Ag said:

---

Quote:

---

Yes, I think ultimately it will be Google that will be the AI winner or one of the winners. I don't think Musk will be one of them, neither will Microsoft or Amazon. Google has the entire ecosystem and can easily buy what they may not have.

---

I don't know. The AWS numbers posted last night were pretty astounding. Amazon is moving towards literally a trillion in revenue from that business. It is hard to get my head around that.

Andy Jassey was talking about his expectations for the market. He think their are 6-8 models already that are good enough for most corporate workloads and expects many others to come online and catch up. The winners are the 3rd parties that can plug and play models to customer needs, not the model builders themselves.

In that world, OpenAI and Anthropic look like very shaky investments at current valuations.

---

AWS had the first mover advantage (as far as I know) and they became the standard quickly. Everyone else came later. No doubt, AWS is the biggest dog but I was just saying that GCP is much easier to use. AWS has been made needlessly complex and is less user-friendly. I am certified in both so I have spent a good amount of time on these platforms.
But that is just cloud, Google is far ahead in AI. They have all the important pieces and I think will be a bigger winner than Amazon is in the long run.

That said, I am curious what an AI model will look like and do in the next 5 years. Will it stall out? Or take over the world?

I think OpenAI will get acquired in the next couple of years. Anthropic will take longer but it will be bought as well.

---

No one is going to want to take on the debt of OpenAI or Anthropic.

---

Debt is nothing for American companies (or people). If the tech is good, there will be a buyer. It will be someone with deep pockets like Google, Amazon or Microsoft. Maybe Elon Musk in some way.

---

$700 billion isn't nothing, even for the largest American companies. The only way Google (or Amazon, etc.) buys someone like Anthropic is if Anthropic can't make it's commitment to Google, and they decide it is better to take over Anthropic than let them fail and not get any payments.

---

Well, Amazon could be in the mix to buy because they just scrapped their entire proprietary AI strategic plan this week because it failed and they are so far behind. Amazon and Apple have been the biggest losers in the AI arms race.

YouBet said:

---

AustinAg2K said:

---

infinity ag said:

---

AustinAg2K said:

---

infinity ag said:

---

Windy City Ag said:

---

Quote:

---

Yes, I think ultimately it will be Google that will be the AI winner or one of the winners. I don't think Musk will be one of them, neither will Microsoft or Amazon. Google has the entire ecosystem and can easily buy what they may not have.

---

I don't know. The AWS numbers posted last night were pretty astounding. Amazon is moving towards literally a trillion in revenue from that business. It is hard to get my head around that.

Andy Jassey was talking about his expectations for the market. He think their are 6-8 models already that are good enough for most corporate workloads and expects many others to come online and catch up. The winners are the 3rd parties that can plug and play models to customer needs, not the model builders themselves.

In that world, OpenAI and Anthropic look like very shaky investments at current valuations.

---

AWS had the first mover advantage (as far as I know) and they became the standard quickly. Everyone else came later. No doubt, AWS is the biggest dog but I was just saying that GCP is much easier to use. AWS has been made needlessly complex and is less user-friendly. I am certified in both so I have spent a good amount of time on these platforms.
But that is just cloud, Google is far ahead in AI. They have all the important pieces and I think will be a bigger winner than Amazon is in the long run.

That said, I am curious what an AI model will look like and do in the next 5 years. Will it stall out? Or take over the world?

I think OpenAI will get acquired in the next couple of years. Anthropic will take longer but it will be bought as well.

---

No one is going to want to take on the debt of OpenAI or Anthropic.

---

Debt is nothing for American companies (or people). If the tech is good, there will be a buyer. It will be someone with deep pockets like Google, Amazon or Microsoft. Maybe Elon Musk in some way.

---

$700 billion isn't nothing, even for the largest American companies. The only way Google (or Amazon, etc.) buys someone like Anthropic is if Anthropic can't make it's commitment to Google, and they decide it is better to take over Anthropic than let them fail and not get any payments.

---

Well, Amazon could be in the mix to buy because they just scrapped their entire proprietary AI strategic plan this week because it failed and they are so far behind. Amazon and Apple have been the biggest losers in the AI arms race.

---

Apple appears wholly lost at this point. Siri is nearly useless as an "assistant". I bought a Mac 3-1/2 years ago to have the integration with iPhone and Messages and now wonder if that wasn't a mistake or at least a wasted learning curve. I'm increasingly invested in Claude as a primary tool which is obviously platform agnostic and have a hard time figuring out why I care if I'm using Mac/iOS or Windows/Android.

I said when Jobs died it was time to short Apple and that's increasingly looking correct. Cook isn't a visionary in any way and Apple is just another hardware company at this point. While I believe Mac OS is better than Windows I'm pretty well convinced their value is based on inertia more than being a great product.

Quote:

---

I said when Jobs died it was time to short Apple and that's increasingly looking correct.

---

LOFL. This board kills me sometimes.


Jobs died on 10/5/2011. Apple shares were trading for $11 bucks. It is trading today at $344 per share having advanced 27% this year alone.

It revenue and profits have absolutely exploded since Jobs death, but yeah it was the right call to go short then.

YouBet said:

---

AustinAg2K said:

---

infinity ag said:

---

AustinAg2K said:

---

infinity ag said:

---

Windy City Ag said:

---

Quote:

---

Yes, I think ultimately it will be Google that will be the AI winner or one of the winners. I don't think Musk will be one of them, neither will Microsoft or Amazon. Google has the entire ecosystem and can easily buy what they may not have.

---

I don't know. The AWS numbers posted last night were pretty astounding. Amazon is moving towards literally a trillion in revenue from that business. It is hard to get my head around that.

Andy Jassey was talking about his expectations for the market. He think their are 6-8 models already that are good enough for most corporate workloads and expects many others to come online and catch up. The winners are the 3rd parties that can plug and play models to customer needs, not the model builders themselves.

In that world, OpenAI and Anthropic look like very shaky investments at current valuations.

---

AWS had the first mover advantage (as far as I know) and they became the standard quickly. Everyone else came later. No doubt, AWS is the biggest dog but I was just saying that GCP is much easier to use. AWS has been made needlessly complex and is less user-friendly. I am certified in both so I have spent a good amount of time on these platforms.
But that is just cloud, Google is far ahead in AI. They have all the important pieces and I think will be a bigger winner than Amazon is in the long run.

That said, I am curious what an AI model will look like and do in the next 5 years. Will it stall out? Or take over the world?

I think OpenAI will get acquired in the next couple of years. Anthropic will take longer but it will be bought as well.

---

No one is going to want to take on the debt of OpenAI or Anthropic.

---

Debt is nothing for American companies (or people). If the tech is good, there will be a buyer. It will be someone with deep pockets like Google, Amazon or Microsoft. Maybe Elon Musk in some way.

---

$700 billion isn't nothing, even for the largest American companies. The only way Google (or Amazon, etc.) buys someone like Anthropic is if Anthropic can't make it's commitment to Google, and they decide it is better to take over Anthropic than let them fail and not get any payments.

---

Well, Amazon could be in the mix to buy because they just scrapped their entire proprietary AI strategic plan this week because it failed and they are so far behind. Amazon and Apple have been the biggest losers in the AI arms race.

---

I disagree about Apple.
It has no need to be the "winner". It plans to just sit this one out and see who the winner is and make deals with them to use their tech. Let these other companies spend the bug bucks and take on the risk.

Very smart. That is why they have so few layoffs.

I might agree with you about Amazon. Not much talk about them and AI compared to the others.

Windy City Ag said:

---

Quote:

---

I said when Jobs died it was time to short Apple and that's increasingly looking correct.

---

LOFL. This board kills me sometimes.


Jobs died on 10/5/2011. Apple shares were trading for $11 bucks. It is trading today at $344 per share having advanced 27% this year alone.

It revenue and profits have absolutely exploded since Jobs death, but yeah it was the right call to go short then.

---

And? I didn't say it was an immediate change but it's undeniable Apple isn't an innovative company anymore. If you took that comment literally that's on you. It was a comment about how much different I expected Apple to be in the wake of his death. It's taken time, honestly longer than I expected, but Apple is headed the wrong way relative to their competitors. They have significant inertia with iPhone and Mac but when is the last time the created something that change the market like Siri? Yeah, I can come with anything either. Their "walled garden" is seemingly their entire business model now.

I say that as a guy using an iPhone 16 and MacBook Pro. This isn't Jobs company.

Quote:

---

Well, Amazon could be in the mix to buy because they just scrapped their entire proprietary AI strategic plan this week because it failed and they are so far behind. Amazon and Apple have been the biggest losers in the AI arms race.

---

I don't think many people in the industry would agree with this.

The firms that sidestep the shareholder value destroying task of developing an insanely expensive and soon to be commoditized native frontier models and instead focus on maintaining the more profitable platform will be the winners. "AI" . . .really just LLMs and Bots . . . .is going to be a commodity, swappable plug in to a larger service ecosystem that is purchased for confidentiality, security, and reliability.

Logos Stick said:

---

Ducks4brkfast said:

---

I've almost completely replaced Google searches with AI.

---

Same, I rarely if ever use Google anymore.

---

I was that way for a bit, but I've gone back to Google more because the AI was feeding me garbage.

Quote:

---

And? I didn't say it was an immediate change but it's undeniable Apple isn't an innovative company anymore. If you took that comment literally that's on you.

---

Apple finally learned. The reason it was almost put to death by Microsoft is that Jobs was more focused on cranking out shiny objects than winning the larger ecosystem battle.

Apple would probably be a less successful stock today if he had lived and maintained control.

LOYAL AG said:

---

Windy City Ag said:

---

Quote:

---

I said when Jobs died it was time to short Apple and that's increasingly looking correct.

---

LOFL. This board kills me sometimes.


Jobs died on 10/5/2011. Apple shares were trading for $11 bucks. It is trading today at $344 per share having advanced 27% this year alone.

It revenue and profits have absolutely exploded since Jobs death, but yeah it was the right call to go short then.

---

And? I didn't say it was an immediate change but it's undeniable Apple isn't an innovative company anymore. If you took that comment literally that's on you. It was a comment about how much different I expected Apple to be in the wake of his death. It's taken time, honestly longer than I expected, but Apple is headed the wrong way relative to their competitors. They have significant inertia with iPhone and Mac but when is the last time the created something that change the market like Siri? Yeah, I can come with anything either. Their "walled garden" is seemingly their entire business model now.

I say that as a guy using an iPhone 16 and MacBook Pro. This isn't Jobs company.

---

Yep, that's right. The real problem is the last few years. The software's gotten sloppy, they keep leaning on that walled garden you mention, and they were late to the party on AI.

They still make a ton of money on iPhone and Mac because people are locked in and everything just works together, so they don't have to take any risks. Me having an iPhone 16 and a MacBook doesn't prove anything either, that's where most people in the ecosystem are.

I don't think they completely stopped innovating the day Jobs died. They just got comfortable, and the business pays them more to protect what they've got than to go build the next big thing.

Logos Stick said:

---

amercer said:

---

Tesla is a car company pretending to be a technology company. If their stock had a car company valuation it would lose 90% of its current price.

But that's a different topic

---

pretending?!

they have FSD, Optimus, batteries, solar panels, energy management software, Powerwall, supercharger network, Robotaxi, chip design, and AI compute...

---

Toyota and Honda have made robots too.

infinity ag said:

---

YouBet said:

---

AustinAg2K said:

---

infinity ag said:

---

AustinAg2K said:

---

infinity ag said:

---

Windy City Ag said:

---

Quote:

---

Yes, I think ultimately it will be Google that will be the AI winner or one of the winners. I don't think Musk will be one of them, neither will Microsoft or Amazon. Google has the entire ecosystem and can easily buy what they may not have.

---

I don't know. The AWS numbers posted last night were pretty astounding. Amazon is moving towards literally a trillion in revenue from that business. It is hard to get my head around that.

Andy Jassey was talking about his expectations for the market. He think their are 6-8 models already that are good enough for most corporate workloads and expects many others to come online and catch up. The winners are the 3rd parties that can plug and play models to customer needs, not the model builders themselves.

In that world, OpenAI and Anthropic look like very shaky investments at current valuations.

---

AWS had the first mover advantage (as far as I know) and they became the standard quickly. Everyone else came later. No doubt, AWS is the biggest dog but I was just saying that GCP is much easier to use. AWS has been made needlessly complex and is less user-friendly. I am certified in both so I have spent a good amount of time on these platforms.
But that is just cloud, Google is far ahead in AI. They have all the important pieces and I think will be a bigger winner than Amazon is in the long run.

That said, I am curious what an AI model will look like and do in the next 5 years. Will it stall out? Or take over the world?

I think OpenAI will get acquired in the next couple of years. Anthropic will take longer but it will be bought as well.

---

No one is going to want to take on the debt of OpenAI or Anthropic.

---

Debt is nothing for American companies (or people). If the tech is good, there will be a buyer. It will be someone with deep pockets like Google, Amazon or Microsoft. Maybe Elon Musk in some way.

---

$700 billion isn't nothing, even for the largest American companies. The only way Google (or Amazon, etc.) buys someone like Anthropic is if Anthropic can't make it's commitment to Google, and they decide it is better to take over Anthropic than let them fail and not get any payments.

---

Well, Amazon could be in the mix to buy because they just scrapped their entire proprietary AI strategic plan this week because it failed and they are so far behind. Amazon and Apple have been the biggest losers in the AI arms race.

---

I disagree about Apple.
It has no need to be the "winner". It plans to just sit this one out and see who the winner is and make deals with them to use their tech. Let these other companies spend the bug bucks and take on the risk.

Very smart. That is why they have so few layoffs.

I might agree with you about Amazon. Not much talk about them and AI compared to the others.

---

Said this yesterday though....they may be sitting it out now because they have no other choice at this point. They went hard into AI in the beginning with Apple Intelligence. Launched a new iOS to account for it, but it failed. They missed the window and are now on sidelines.

Thus, waiting it out may be their play now out of necessity.

Windy City Ag said:

---

Quote:

---

Well, Amazon could be in the mix to buy because they just scrapped their entire proprietary AI strategic plan this week because it failed and they are so far behind. Amazon and Apple have been the biggest losers in the AI arms race.

---

I don't think many people in the industry would agree with this.

The firms that sidestep the shareholder value destroying task of developing an insanely expensive and soon to be commoditized native frontier models and instead focus on maintaining the more profitable platform will be the winners. "AI" . . .really just LLMs and Bots . . . .is going to be a commodity, swappable plug in to a larger service ecosystem that is purchased for confidentiality, security, and reliability.

---

Similar to Apple response though. WSJ article this week on it. They tried and failed with their own AI strategy and are now revamping it. So they are behind the 8 ball like Apple now and may have to do what you said simply because they have no other choice.

IOW, Amazon may be so far behind they are now ahead.

YouBet said:

---

Windy City Ag said:

---

Quote:

---

Well, Amazon could be in the mix to buy because they just scrapped their entire proprietary AI strategic plan this week because it failed and they are so far behind. Amazon and Apple have been the biggest losers in the AI arms race.

---

I don't think many people in the industry would agree with this.

The firms that sidestep the shareholder value destroying task of developing an insanely expensive and soon to be commoditized native frontier models and instead focus on maintaining the more profitable platform will be the winners. "AI" . . .really just LLMs and Bots . . . .is going to be a commodity, swappable plug in to a larger service ecosystem that is purchased for confidentiality, security, and reliability.

---

Similar to Apple response though. WSJ article this week on it. They tried and failed with their own AI strategy and are now revamping it. So they are behind the 8 ball like Apple now and may have to do what you said simply because they have no other choice.

---

True, but remember.... Google was not first in Search, FB was not first in social networking, and Apple was late to phones.

I think AI has much higher barriers as far as frontier models, so that play may be completely off the table. But MS doesn't have a model, they are simply front-ending them and using their desktop monopoly to drive uptake for Copilot. Most people using Copilot don't care what LLM is being used.

Plus they are not burning money like the majors did on early failed approaches. That debt is still sitting on their books, either as real debt or PE that expects a payoff.

Logos Stick said:

---

YouBet said:

---

Windy City Ag said:

---

Quote:

---

Well, Amazon could be in the mix to buy because they just scrapped their entire proprietary AI strategic plan this week because it failed and they are so far behind. Amazon and Apple have been the biggest losers in the AI arms race.

---

I don't think many people in the industry would agree with this.

The firms that sidestep the shareholder value destroying task of developing an insanely expensive and soon to be commoditized native frontier models and instead focus on maintaining the more profitable platform will be the winners. "AI" . . .really just LLMs and Bots . . . .is going to be a commodity, swappable plug in to a larger service ecosystem that is purchased for confidentiality, security, and reliability.

---

Similar to Apple response though. WSJ article this week on it. They tried and failed with their own AI strategy and are now revamping it. So they are behind the 8 ball like Apple now and may have to do what you said simply because they have no other choice.

---

True, but remember.... Google was not first in Search, FB was not first in social networking, and Apple was late to phones.

I think AI has much higher barriers as far as frontier models, so that play may be completely off the table. But MS doesn't have a model, they are simply front-ending them and using their desktop monopoly to drive uptake for Copilot. Most people using Copilot don't care what LLM is being used.

Plus they are not burning money like the majors did on early failed approaches. That debt is still sitting on their books, either as real debt or PE that expects a payoff.

---

Right, thus my comment about them being so far behind they are ahead. Losing the initial AI race could end up being the better outcome. We will see.

Loose analogy - SWA never invested in seat back entertainment for various reasons. That ultimately worked out because mobile technology took off making it pointless and obsolete. They saved a ton of money and extra plane weight (leading to more fuel burn) over the years as a result.