BQ78 said:

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I don't get this and really wonder if it works as designed. Personally, if my preferred candidate is behind or appears to be, it motivates me more to get to the voting booth.

On the other hand, with lukewarm voters if your preferred candidate seems to have it in the bag why vote when the Game Box is calling you to play?

Please explain it to me like a five year old if this really works and how this helps a candidate to be "ahead."

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They have done this in Mexico for decades, so apparently it works.

It also sets up some expectations for unexpected… more like unexplainable… results.

The more noise in the system the more it can be manipulated.

LOYAL AG said:

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This phenomenon has played out across all elections in the Trump era, it's not limited to him. Conservative candidates outperform the polls nearly universally at this point. It is what it is.

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Your thesis is false.

The polls were very accurate in 2018 and 2022, and polls in off year elections and special elections have, if anything, underestimated the performance of Democratic candidates.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/what-if-the-polls-are-wrong-again

2018 midterm results: Final RealClearPolitics average on the generic House ballot was D +7.3, actual result was D + 8.4.

2022 midterm results: Final RealClearPolitics average on the generic House ballot was R+2.6, actual result was R +2.8.

Libs are excited to be polled. Conservatives not so much.

YokelRidesAgain said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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This phenomenon has played out across all elections in the Trump era, it's not limited to him. Conservative candidates outperform the polls nearly universally at this point. It is what it is.

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Your thesis is false.

The polls were very accurate in 2018 and 2022, and polls in off year elections and special elections have, if anything, underestimated the performance of Democratic candidates.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/what-if-the-polls-are-wrong-again

2018 midterm results: Final RealClearPolitics average on the generic House ballot was D +7.3, actual result was D + 8.4.

2022 midterm results: Final RealClearPolitics average on the generic House ballot was R+2.6, actual result was R +2.8.

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Interesting. Thanks for that. I'll have to do some more homework. I've read that polling is basically trash and has been for a decade with the Trump numbers playing out across all elections.

If you're correct it reflects the cult of personality around Trump, at least I think it does. His supporters turn out for him but they aren't enthusiastic voters in general. I can believe that.

We saw the same phenomenon for Biden who received 14m more votes than any Democrat in history then those people vanished when it was time to vote for Harris. /s

I've been polled once or twice. The process is frustrating. Typically the questions are very poorly worded and designed to produce the desired outcome.

1. When you think about the <random political party>, which answer better captures your mood?
a. The <random political party> is horrific, and continues to commit unspeakable acts.
b. The <random political party> is terrible, and represents the worst of society

2. The good party holds a view on <topic>. The <random political party> has attacked that view. Which answer better reflects what needs to happen?
a. The <random political party> needs to be declared the enemy of the people
b. The <random political party> needs to be censored and dispersed.

And so on... None of the responses permit saying that the question is garbage.

Language is full of 'feel' vs 'fact'. Perception vs reality. Anyone can make any poll say anything.

Mark Twain said something about statistics.

LOYAL AG said:

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We saw the same phenomenon for Biden who received 14m more votes than any Democrat in history then those people vanished when it was time to vote for Harris. /s

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Another counterintuitive result is that the magnitude of the polling error in Trump's three elections was actually greatest in 2020.

Trump overperformed the RCP average by 1.1 points in 2016, 1.6 points in 2024, and a whopping 2.7 points in 2020. For whatever reason, the polls consistently miss a segment of Trump voters.

The general belief is that these are disproportionately composed of the "'missing white voters" in the Rust Belt that the Romney campaign was counting on in 2012. I thought these voters were imaginary; and the Romney campaign (and most of this board) thought they were going to swing the election. Turns out we were both wrong: they did exist, but they didn't have any interest in voting for Romney. This same general demographic were also undercounted in the 1992 polls, resulting in a significant overperformance for Ross Perot.

sam callahan said:

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A lot of people's vote is no deeper than wanting to be on the winning side.

A lot.

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I would have to disagree. There may be some but no way it is a lot. Otherwise Trump would never have won as one example.

Rocky Rider said:

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Libs are excited to be polled. Conservatives not so much.

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phrasin

Polls are designed by politicians and their campaigns to influence not report. They would be ignored by any lukewarm intelligence if not given legs by a money hungry media, which insists on beating the drum continually to fill airtime and stir up the rubes.

The only people who respond to polls are doing so in hopes of influencing low IQ others.K