The collapse of the consumer economy

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Ciboag96
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6:09p, 9/18/26
Was at a function listening to a conversation. This guy, saying he was an economist by trade, said the mad rush to immigrate millions from the third-world into Europe/Canada/US is a naive defense against collapsing demographics, which, as a consumer-based economy, can't afford a sustained drop in consumption. Our entire system is built on consumer growth.

He said immigrants children adopt the same cultural birth rate decline, though in Muslim population it's a slower decline. Still a decline, though.

Also, GDP per capita growth is not necessarily linear with population, it's correlated more to "skilled population".

So, this guy predicted an eventual economic system evolution, with uneven market rotations, becoming more zero-sum in volume, likely witnessing further consolidations and a shift toward maintenance/refurbish/repair/make-nicer (service) over growth/replacement/brand new/the-newest-thing, etc.

He called it the "Maintenance Economy". Said some use "Adaptation Economy".
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CascadiaAg
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6:43p, 9/18/26
that vast vast majority of these people are not going to find jobs that allow them to be middle class (or better) , which means they will have limited money to participate in the "consumer economy"

and with white collar jobs at some risk to AI and outsourcing, there is even less chance to elevate social position.

unless we curtail the illegal immigration and send them back, we are just going to become a 2nd world ****hole in 20 years or less.

let the consumer economy shake itself out. it will have to do so anyways. better to have it shake out with less parasites feeding at the government trough that overinflating our population for some mythical "solution".
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An L of an Ag
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6:49p, 9/18/26
AG
Oh no, an economist is preaching gloom and doom!!

That's NEVER happened!
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YouBet
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6:56p, 9/18/26
AG
It's a reasonable take.
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5Amp
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8:08p, 9/18/26
Reminds me of Global warming B.S.

\
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YouBet
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In reply to 5Amp • 8:10p, 9/18/26
AG
5Amp said:
Reminds me of Global warming B.S.

\


Really? That first paragraph is fact. Everyone knows this.

The only real debatable thing is the switch from a consumer economy to a maintenance economy. And, frankly, we better hope we keep enough skill sets or grow it to be able to maintain stuff going forward.
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ABATTBQ11
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8:18p, 9/18/26
AG
Disagree.

Many manufacturers have learned to preempt this by using specialized parts that are sold at a price that makes repair uneconomical and aren't economical for aftermarket manufacturers to reproduce. Think control or input boards. A lot of things are also made and sealed in ways where they can't be repaired.

Another issue is that technology can get left behind. Think of trying to use an original iPhone today. It simply wouldn't have the bandwidth to browse or do anything online. Electronics can and will also just go out of support, with no security or functionality updates. People are stuck buying new every few years.

Planned obsolescence may not be something intentionally put into consumer products, but they are not designed to be maintained and repaired like they used to.

Now, some things like vehicles and air conditioners that have common parts across many years or models will be different, but those are also not the heart of the consumer economy.
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5Amp
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8:19p, 9/18/26
A.I. and robotics are a game changer. Within 10 years the economy will be twice what is now.
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AggieVictor10
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8:19p, 9/18/26
AG
Sounds like some lib being wrong
“…What?”

- Joe Biden
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BadMoonRisin
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8:24p, 9/18/26
AG
Well good news, the collapse of the West wont be because of fertility anymore, it will be because Europe will have been conquered by Mohamadeans in just 3 decades without a shot fired because someone believed in this ****-for-brains "theory" in the OP which is has more swiss-cheese holes than Mathusianism.

They were diagnosed with high blood pressure, and instead chose experimental treatments that lead to late stage cancer. Great job.

The replacement-level-fertility "bomb" was just the clever marketing to excuse the moron leftists to believe and think that this is a "good thing".

It's not. It's not even debatable that the people that they let into these countries have no skills, no economic benefit, and are for the most part, a drain economically; not to mention parasites that commit fraud en mass and take advantage of the system and often have the gall to come here and **** on our countries to our faces and lecture us, aided by liberal ******s, that we are racist for having a problem with it.

No Western country has taken on third world migrants in the last 30 years and have become more safe, more prosperous, or more successful. The statistics are clear on that. Diversity is our Strength is the biggest Orwellian lie in history.

If they would have realized this and saw that it didnt align with their goal of increased "workers", they would have turned back in the early aughts or 90s. They havent, and the invasions have become more and more brazen.
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Houston Lee
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8:37p, 9/18/26
AG
We consume energy, food, medicine, liquids, office supplies and sundry items every day, all day long. No change in consumers for this.

We consume electronics, appliances, automobiles, clothing and furniture on a case by case basis over a long period of time.

Then there is maintenance and services industry's for everything to keep it all running or replace it.

There will always be consumers and always be jobs. There will always be "money" or goods exchanged for services.

There are about 3 billion people on the planet that have no or unreliable energy/electricity. How the hell is "AI" going to take over their world?

People need to calm down.

The government is worried about more people because they need TAXPAYERS to get money for all their programs and fraud.
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YouBet
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In reply to BadMoonRisin • 8:47p, 9/18/26
AG
BadMoonRisin said:
Well good news, the collapse of the West wont be because of fertility anymore, it will be because Europe will have been conquered by Mohamadeans in just 3 decades without a shot fired because someone believed in this ****-for-brains "theory" in the OP which is has more swiss-cheese holes than Mathusianism.

They were diagnosed with high blood pressure, and instead chose experimental treatments that lead to late stage cancer. Great job.

The replacement-level-fertility "bomb" was just the clever marketing to excuse the moron leftists to believe and think that this is a "good thing".

It's not. It's not even debatable that the people that they let into these countries have no skills, no economic benefit, and are for the most part, a drain economically; not to mention parasites that commit fraud en mass and take advantage of the system and often have the gall to come here and **** on our countries to our faces and lecture us, aided by liberal ******s, that we are racist for having a problem with it.

No Western country has taken on third world migrants in the last 30 years and have become more safe, more prosperous, or more successful. The statistics are clear on that. Diversity is our Strength is the biggest Orwellian lie in history.

If they would have realized this and saw that it didnt align with their goal of increased "workers", they would have turned back in the early aughts or 90s. They havent, and the invasions have become more and more brazen.


I feel like I'm reading something different than everyone else on this thread. What that economist is saying is essentially what you are saying. And he's not necessarily agreeing with the suicidal immigration that the West has pushed for last several years. He's simply stating a fact of life in that first paragraph. There is no disputing what he said there.

There is certainly a debate on some wholesale shift from a consumer economy to a maintenance economy as he predicts.
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BadMoonRisin
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In reply to YouBet • 8:59p, 9/18/26
AG
Fair enough.

"If All the Economists Were Laid End to End, They Would Not Reach a Conclusion".

If I had a nickel for every time I heard that in Allen. George Bernard Shaw (probably).
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Logos Stick
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In reply to Ciboag96 • 11:29a, 9/19/26
I guess that guy has never heard of AI and Robotics.
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bmks270
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12:19p
AG
Prefer a high trust, highly competent, society that is slow growth or negative growth, but you can trust your neighbors, don't have petty and violent crimes, vs. a zero trust growth economy facing a competency crisis where everyone is scamming and defrauding each other, with low skill lower intelligence immigrants straining the welfare systems.

The main criteria for migrants needs to be adoption of American values, primarily the embracing and supporting of our constitution and capitalism.
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