https://www.reddit.com/r/Infographics/comments/1ttisjf/only_1_in_5_of_15_million_polymarket_traders_ever/#:~:text=This%20lines%20up%20almost%20exactly,story%20from%20on%2Dchain%20data.

https://www.reddit.com/r/EconomyCharts/comments/1t46gos/on_polymarket_the_journal_found_67_of_profits_go/#:~:text=To%20be%20perfectly%20fair%2C%20this,small%20group%20hits%20the%20jackpot.

Listening to the radio this morning and heard numerous ads for Polymarket as the taking the lowest cut for sports betting - so the best place to gamble.

Thought I would give my 2 cents, for anyone interested. BTW, I used to be a gambler - blackjack card counter/poker. But I haven't gambled for many years.

Polymarket is really good at prediction. I look at it conceptually as a kissing cousin to Bayesian -strengthened by participants having real stakes on the outcome and participants having generally better than average knowledge about the underlying events. Pretty cool stuff for us stat nerds.

Polymarket can be a sucky place for retail bettors to bet.

WSJ did a study -- .1% of Polymarket bettors took 67% of all polymarket profits.
These winning bettors used frequent, high-speed trading; reacted to new information faster; and used arbitrage and better pricing models to extract two-thirds of the value of all bets placed. DOH!

(see links at top)

My advice, if you use Polymarket to sports bet - make the bet before the start of the game and hold it until the end.

If you use Polymarket to live-bet during a game (or leave open buy/sell orders unattended) then you are competing against the guys in the WSJ study. And your odds of profit plummet.

How do you actually bet there? Isn't it not allowed in the US? I just don't get how that works.

Are you posting links to Reddit threads to support some sort of argument? I'm very confused.

aggie93 said:

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How do you actually bet there? Isn't it not allowed in the US? I just don't get how that works.

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Legality -- generally OK, but varies by state. The CFTC is the federal regulatory authority. The feds say it is legal for (essentially) all betting - including sports betting. Several states are fighting - they don't want thier betting/lotteries have competition. Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, and Ohio for example. Feds are suing them on supremacy claim.

Pinochet said:

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Are you posting links to Reddit threads to support some sort of argument? I'm very confused.

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The reddit posts are studies (including one by WSJ) that say, in essence, that playing against sophisticated investors in the prediction markets is almost certainly a bad bet. They skim off 2/3rds of the profit, meaning that retail bettors basically have terrible odds of ever seeing a profit.

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if you use Polymarket to sports bet - make the bet before the start of the game and hold it until the end.

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So why not just use a "normal" bookie if that's what you are going to do. Seems this takes away the whole point of polymarket.

The best part about Kalshi and Polymarket is how the Feds are protecting them from state anti-gambling regulation because they call themselves "prediction markets" which is totally not the same thing as gambling.

And the best way to not lose money is to not participate.

Betting is always a losing effort unless you're using computers and algorithms etc. easiest way to make money is to work, don't be an idiot and time in the market(no matter the market).

Stay tuned for more cheat codes.

Bookies are illegal and they break your leg if you don't pay. You obviously have never seen law and order.

Im Gipper said:

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Quote:

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if you use Polymarket to sports bet - make the bet before the start of the game and hold it until the end.

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So why not just use a "normal" bookie if that's what you are going to do. Seems this takes away the whole point of polymarket.

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I've seen several Texags F16 postings about betting on Polymarket. Most/many posters probably don't understand the headwinds they are facing.

Heard the commercials (I guess NBA finals) again this morning and thought I would make a post discussing the cons and how to avoid them.

Like I said, I don't gamble any longer and certainly didn't expect much positive feedback, but thought some might find the info helpful, particularly how much is weighted against you when you do "sophisticated" strategies.

But for those Texags want to make simple, *legal* bets polymarket is easy. Just download the app at polymarket.com and away you go.

* some states have passed legislation against, but feds are fighting.

My interest in Polymarket is it predictive ability, vis-a-vis polling, etc. Once a data nerd...

ErnestEndeavor said:

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The best part about Kalshi and Polymarket is how the Feds are protecting them from state anti-gambling regulation because they call themselves "prediction markets" which is totally not the same thing as gambling.

And the best way to not lose money is to not participate.

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Of course not. Sorry, don't have winky face.

Sports betting ads even invading F16 now. It really is that insidious…

I'm glad I never had the "gambling gene." It just never did anything for me.

I love going to the casino. I get the itch about every 3-4 years. I'll play craps with a few hundred dollars for hours win or lose. Then I'm sick of it for another few years. Having constant access to this will not be good. Gamifying everything will not be good.

The day that I stopped gambling was the day when I realized that there were professional gamblers out their who viewed an amateur like me as a sucker and the means to line their wallets.