The Global Fertility Crisis is worse than you think

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flown-the-coop
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In reply to tysker • 9:06a, 5/19/26
AG
Great, what is optimal permanent population of Japan? The United States?

For the latter, is it 110 million? 220 million? 1 billion?

You have to determine that number before talk about managing fertility, population incline or decline, etc.

Prior to making that determination, the rest is just theoretical academic circle jerking.
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Fitch
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9:10a, 5/19/26
AG
I don't think it's generally appreciated exactly how upending this paradigm shift is going to be over the near and long term, and how quickly.

We've already seen the last largest cohort of college students enter into universities. Every successive school year behind them is smaller. Run the clock out another 10 years and housing demand starts plateauing then declining. Same for sales growth.

We're going to see the same dynamic that afflicted all the small towns that dried up, got old and shuttered because a generation or two of kids went off to college and never came home begin to play out broadly across cities and states.

I've had the good fortune to travel Rome and Japan in the last couple of years, and and it's very weird seeing this dynamic play out but a decade or two more advanced. Rome especially, where there were virtually no kids to be seen, anywhere. Home values drop due to demand contraction, equity markets fight headwinds of smaller demand bases. Not pessimistic, just basic math.

Really do hope for the best for the West in this one.
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Urban Ag
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In reply to Gilligan • 9:11a, 5/19/26
AG
Gilligan said:
I'm ok with less people.

I'm ok with less people too.

I am not ok with the mental and emotional health aspects of people not creating family. This is disastrous for the human race and it's already playing out, especially with women.

Ask yourself, if your primary motivation is not a better future for your kids and grandkids, than what is it? Why would you really care about the future of your country if you're convinced you'll be fine until death and there is nothing more for you to be invested in after you're gone?

This is exactly why 50 year old women ram ICE agents with their car. It's why so many couldn't care less about of national debt. It's why so many in this country are singularly focused on social issues with little to no regards for anything else.

This is unprecedented in human history. De-population can be compensated for, over time, with technology. The non breeders can choose extinction. But getting there is going to be one bloody mess.
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YouBet
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In reply to tysker • 9:11a, 5/19/26
AG
tysker said:
flown-the-coop said:
YouBet said:
flown-the-coop said:
K2-HMFIC said:
flown-the-coop said:
K2-HMFIC said:
YouBet said:
flown-the-coop said:
I smoke weed, play video games and made lots of money.

Only had one kid though.

From my observation, the fertility rate explodes when you add in pine trees, trailer parks, crystal meth with a healthy dose of government handouts.

Somewhere there has to be a happy medium.

And we need less people, not more. You cannot continue to increase both population and standard of living with finite resources.

Why we abandoned that basic understanding is beyond me.


You also can't maintain government spending and intrusion with fewer people. But we all know we will face a battle on that front because they absolute will not voluntarily give up any power or funding. They will pick up the slack on the latter with AI, tech, and robotics. We face the potential of becoming a massive techno police state, if we don't push back.

Funding all of that will be the trick.

The interview dug into that...

For rich countries, in order to increase taxable income you'll have to import more people or cut social services.

Neither of those are very popular options.


The folks who write these articles do so because they no longer have jobs in the Socialist Parties Central Planning Committees.

FTC...you want to debate the argument on it's merits, or do you want to throw meaningless aspersions?

I discussed the merits.

There is absolutely zero reason to populate the earth or a particularly country with as many people as possible.

Once you decide on that, then we can have an endless debates on what the right number is.


FTR, you are setting up an argument that no one made and then knocking it down.


See bolded part. But if you are growing population then you are heading to a theoretical max. Else, you are deciding the right number.

Per your own comments you recognize Japan had the stones to manage decline. We should be proactive and manage our decline starting now.

Japan is managing the decline like hospice manages a dying person's pain. Its economy is a polished turd with a low ceiling. The Japanese are just too polite to speak truth to the bull*****


But I think that's the likely reality of any country that is going into decline. Mitigating negative impacts and outcomes is going to be the challenge with this.

They are also the first (and only?) western country with a still intact original culture attempting to do it. They are learning on the job, if you will, and they don't yet have all of the hopium AI/robotics tech yet in place that the the tech futurists all now say will be our saving grace to mange the decline in a constructive manner.
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Sid Farkas
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In reply to DallasAg 94 • 9:12a, 5/19/26
AG
DallasAg 94 said:
Abortion.

yeah and birth control too.

This long-term trend probably goes hand-in-hand with AI and robotics to keep productivity gains trending upward while population shrinks.

We can get to that steady state if we survive a generation or two of bed-wetting commies who boo AI commencement speakers and vote against data centers and other issues in their general self-interest.
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Over_ed
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In reply to aggie93 • 9:14a, 5/19/26
AG
aggie93 said:
Gilligan said:
I'm ok with less people.

Only because you don't realize what that really means. The only thing that might save us is robotics.

This truly is the answer.

You're not going to get women to broadly stop working. Not going to be able to pay single earners (1 spouse working) with dependents more than couples. Tax laws play at the margins...

Robots could substantially increase production/gdp per person without requiring society to u-turn, which is not going to happen. And when production per person increases, affluence will as well. This will at least ETA - help remove the financial causes of the fertility crisis.

Whether it will be enough, who knows? And yes, it does create a whole new host of challenges.
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YouBet
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In reply to Urban Ag • 9:15a, 5/19/26
AG
Urban Ag said:
Gilligan said:
I'm ok with less people.

I'm ok with less people too.

I am not ok with the mental and emotional health aspects of people not creating family. This is disastrous for the human race and it's already playing out, especially with women.

Ask yourself, if your primary motivation is not a better future for your kids and grandkids, than what is it? Why would you really care about the future of your country if you're convinced you'll be fine until death and there is nothing more for you to be invested in after you're gone?

This is exactly why 50 year old women ram ICE agents with their car. It's why so many couldn't care less about of national debt. It's why so many in this country are singularly focused on social issues with little to no regards for anything else.

This is unprecedented in human history. De-population can be compensated for, over time, with technology. The non breeders can choose extinction. But getting these is going to be one bloody mess.


Agreed. Some countries are going to manage this better and others. Japan has inherent advantage of being a small, island country that has mostly never allowed open immigration. They won't have to deal with culture wars like we will on their way down.

We are going to have a f'ing mess in this country which will be eclipsed by the **** show in some European countries like the UK, France, and Germany.
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Larry Mondello
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In reply to tysker • 9:15a, 5/19/26
AG
tysker said:

As an example, I would say, at its core, being a Texan and even being an Aggie is not much different today than it was 20, 30, or even 50 years ago. Has it ebbed and flowed and changed around the edges? Sure. But at it's core it's still basically the same.

I'm guessing you are fairly young. From experience I can tell you the values of Texans was significantly different 50 years ago. Gone is the self reliance and willingness to take responsibility for one's actions/efforts replaced by a growing sense of entitlement and belief that "others/government" have an obligation to address any needs or wants.
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K2-HMFIC
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In reply to infinity ag • 9:15a, 5/19/26
infinity ag said:
Muslims are breeding like rats though.

And we fund them with our taxes esp in blue states.


Not according to the data…
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Maroon Dawn
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9:18a, 5/19/26
AG
There's no sending women back home at this point.

We need to stop being cowards and accept artificial womb technology is the future and depending on natural human reproduction doesn't work anymore.

Combine it with subsidies that then massively increase for each kid over replacement. Plus you're probably going to effectively have government run child farms that raise large groups of "extra" kids to meet demand not met by parents

It will be a Brave New World but the other option is extinction which is unacceptable
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Urban Ag
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9:18a, 5/19/26
AG
I was in Costco yesterday and this gal in front of my son and I had four boys probably between the ages of 3 and 10 and she was pregnant. I wanted to high five her but decided that might be weird.
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Got a Natty!
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In reply to Gilligan • 9:19a, 5/19/26
AG
Gilligan said:
I'm ok with less people.

I am also. And with these projected demographics, society might be in much better place within the next 2 to 3 generations.
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AgNav93
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In reply to Gilligan • 9:19a, 5/19/26
AG
Gilligan said:
I'm ok with less people.

Ya. I fail to see to see the downside of any of this. I just hope Ilive long enough to see it.
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YouBet
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In reply to K2-HMFIC • 9:19a, 5/19/26
AG
K2-HMFIC said:
infinity ag said:
Muslims are breeding like rats though.

And we fund them with our taxes esp in blue states.


Not according to the data…


The nuance I did not see in this article is the reason why people assume and are shocked by Latin America's massive TFR decline is because so many have ended up here and then contributed to our higher birth rates. Mexico's TFR has been equal or below ours for some time. Well, they outsource their population to the USA and have been for decades so it's no surprise that our TFR is higher than theirs. Not the sole cause but a contributor.
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YouBet
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In reply to AgNav93 • 9:20a, 5/19/26
AG
AgNav93 said:
Gilligan said:
I'm ok with less people.

Ya. I fail to see to see the downside of any of this. I just hope Ilive long enough to see it.


Are you ignoring the down sides, or just don't think they will happen?

You must be an extreme optimist.
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Martels Hammer
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9:24a, 5/19/26
What will be radically different in Texas 25 years from now concerning this topic?

50?

For some reason, I'm having a hard time playing this one out of my mind
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SteveA
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In reply to Spergin • 9:25a, 5/19/26
AG
Quote:
The only solution that works is reducing female employment and income and increasing male employment and income. You can see this in all types of stats: one of the most interesting being lottery winners. Male winners get married and have kids. Female winners either get divorced or become promiscuous or even more single.

who hurt you?
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RyanAg08
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9:25a, 5/19/26
AG
Part of this is basic biology. Lack of suitable mates and lack of desire. If both weren't lacking, people would be banging all the time regardless of economic and technological factors.
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Kozmozag
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9:26a, 5/19/26
U.s wont peak until 2080(projected). Its a problem for our grandkids.
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Logos Stick
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9:28a, 5/19/26
One big issue is that the decline won't be geographically isolated. That means all the current infrastructure - electrical grid, roads, bridges, water, sewage, etc... - will have to be maintained with fewer people to do it. That's a disaster in the making.

It also means an inverted triangle as far as population and age. There be fewer working people to service the total population going forward. Hopefully AI and automation can fill that gap.
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tysker
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In reply to Larry Mondello • 9:29a, 5/19/26
AG
Larry Mondello said:
tysker said:

As an example, I would say, at its core, being a Texan and even being an Aggie is not much different today than it was 20, 30, or even 50 years ago. Has it ebbed and flowed and changed around the edges? Sure. But at it's core it's still basically the same.

I'm guessing you are fairly young. From experience I can tell you the values of Texans was significantly different 50 years ago. Gone is the self reliance and willingness to take responsibility for one's actions/efforts replaced by a growing sense of entitlement and belief that "others/government" have an obligation to address any needs or wants.

I'm not young, and people are coming here to get away from the overzealousness of other countries and even other states. Texas skews younger because of work opportunities and the chance to make something of yourself, which may not be as possible in other parts of the country or even the world.

Furthermore, I'm guessing you're old and rely on government entitlement programs that my generation (GenX) and future generations don't expect to see.
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Logos Stick
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In reply to Kozmozag • 9:30a, 5/19/26
CBO says 2056.

"Starting in 2030, annual deaths exceed annual births, and net immigration accounts for all population growth."

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61879
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No Spin Ag
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In reply to SteveA • 9:31a, 5/19/26
SteveA said:
Quote:
The only solution that works is reducing female employment and income and increasing male employment and income. You can see this in all types of stats: one of the most interesting being lottery winners. Male winners get married and have kids. Female winners either get divorced or become promiscuous or even more single.

who hurt you?


I'm going to go out on a limb and say a woman? Maybe more than one?
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
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K2-HMFIC
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In reply to YouBet • 9:32a, 5/19/26
YouBet said:
K2-HMFIC said:
infinity ag said:
Muslims are breeding like rats though.

And we fund them with our taxes esp in blue states.


Not according to the data…


The nuance I did not see in this article is the reason why people assume and are shocked by Latin America's massive TFR decline is because so many have ended up here and then contributed to our higher birth rates. Mexico's TFR has been equal or below ours for some time. Well, they outsource their population to the USA and have been for decades so it's no surprise that our TFR is higher than theirs. Not the sole cause but a contributor.



It's an interesting question, but from what I'm reading is that the drop across LATAM is also in countries who aren't sending sig numbers of people to the US (Chile, Brazil, Bolivia, etc) and even in the Mexico example, we're not getting a lot of sustained Mexican immigrants anymore (mainly Central America).
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YouBet
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In reply to Logos Stick • 9:32a, 5/19/26
AG
Logos Stick said:
One big issue is that the decline won't be geographically isolated. That means all the current infrastructure - electrical grid, roads, bridges, water, sewage, etc... - will have to be maintained with fewer people to do it. That's a disaster in the making.

It also means an inverted triangle as far as population and age. There be fewer working people to service the total population going forward. Hopefully AI and automation can fill that gap.


Exactly but many just seem to think that won't be a big deal. Wait until something critical breaks and there is no one around to fix it and backups aren't readily available because we've gone digital with everything.
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RyanAg08
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In reply to Spergin • 9:34a, 5/19/26
AG
Three of my wife's friends are still single in their mid to late 30s. All of them have expressed sadness over the potential loss of never having children. All of them followed the "boss babe" path.
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BonfireNerd04
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In reply to Logos Stick • 9:34a, 5/19/26
Logos Stick said:
One big issue is that the decline won't be geographically isolated. That means all the current infrastructure - electrical grid, roads, bridges, water, sewage, etc... - will have to be maintained with fewer people to do it. That's a disaster in the making.


Look at Detroit: A city of 650k people with infrastructure left over from 1950 when it had 1.8 million people.
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SteveA
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In reply to RyanAg08 • 9:36a, 5/19/26
AG
Quote:
Three of my wife's friends are still single in their mid to late 30s. All of them have expressed sadness over the potential loss of never having children. All of them followed the "boss babe" path.

Are they hot?
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K2-HMFIC
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In reply to BonfireNerd04 • 9:37a, 5/19/26
BonfireNerd04 said:
Logos Stick said:
One big issue is that the decline won't be geographically isolated. That means all the current infrastructure - electrical grid, roads, bridges, water, sewage, etc... - will have to be maintained with fewer people to do it. That's a disaster in the making.


Look at Detroit: A city of 650k people with infrastructure left over from 1950 when it had 1.8 million people.



I think this could be a big deal if fertility rates continue but I think there's some reason for optimism that the "delayed" birth model will kick in the next few years and slow things down.
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Urban Ag
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In reply to AgNav93 • 9:37a, 5/19/26
AG
AgNav93 said:
Gilligan said:
I'm ok with less people.

Ya. I fail to see to see the downside of any of this. I just hope Ilive long enough to see it.

The downside is we are denying the natural order.

When I met my wife in the fall of 1997 she was a first year elementary teacher. Her job was being a teacher. Her career was to meet Mr Right, get married, and have babies. By comparison, my job and career were the same. I was motivated to make lots of money, have cool stuff, have a hot girlfriend, and have lots of fun.

Over time she "won". Marriage, kids, and some level of domestication. During the third trimester with our first kid, I went to see our pastor because I was having guilt about really not feeling anything for our child. He just laughed and said you'll be fine, wait until he's born and get back to me. He was 100% right.

My point is this. As a male, I probably could have gone through life living for myself. I would have had regrets at some point but that's what a Porsche is for. By contrast, my wife would be in an institution if she didn't have children. There is also the distinct chance I may not even be alive right now. I was reckless and impulsive before marriage and kids.

Women need motherhood. Period. Men need their own family to reign in our destructive nature. It really is science.
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No Spin Ag
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In reply to RyanAg08 • 9:38a, 5/19/26
RyanAg08 said:
Three of my wife's friends are still single in their mid to late 30s. All of them have expressed sadness over the potential loss of never having children. All of them followed the "boss babe" path.


They have until their early 40s, per the Google, to still safely have kids. And they don't need to be in a relationship with a man for that.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
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YouBet
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In reply to RyanAg08 • 9:41a, 5/19/26
AG
RyanAg08 said:
Three of my wife's friends are still single in their mid to late 30s. All of them have expressed sadness over the potential loss of never having children. All of them followed the "boss babe" path.


4 of the 6 women that were on my immediate team from my corporate gig still don't have kids. All mid 30s now and pushing the envelope. Two are married and two are not.

(Full self disclosure: my wife and I never had kids so we are part of the problem).
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K2-HMFIC
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In reply to YouBet • 9:43a, 5/19/26
YouBet said:
RyanAg08 said:
Three of my wife's friends are still single in their mid to late 30s. All of them have expressed sadness over the potential loss of never having children. All of them followed the "boss babe" path.


4 of the 6 women that were on my immediate team from my corporate gig still don't have kids. All mid 30s now and pushing the envelope. Two are married and two are not.

(Full self disclosure: my wife and I never had kids so we are part of the problem).


BOOOOOOOO!!!!!
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Got a Natty!
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In reply to RyanAg08 • 9:43a, 5/19/26
AG
RyanAg08 said:
Three of my wife's friends are still single in their mid to late 30s. All of them have expressed sadness over the potential loss of never having children. All of them followed the "boss babe" path.

Not too long ago my wife and I were counting the number of friends who never had children. The majority of these friends are females. I was shocked how many childless people we know. Most of them are our college friends, We are both Aggies.

I think we came up with around 20 couples we know fairly well who do not have children.
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JobSecurity
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In reply to Martels Hammer • 9:48a, 5/19/26
AG
Martels Hammer said:
What will be radically different in Texas 25 years from now concerning this topic?

50?

For some reason, I'm having a hard time playing this one out of my mind


Nothing. TFR is not net population growth. Until/unless texas is no longer desirable for employment, weather, cost of living, etc it isn't an issue.
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