Say good bye to the Global Reserve Status

6,354 Views | 64 Replies | Last: 18 days ago by Sims
Dungeon Crawler Carl
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They are telling you whats coming soon..... Countries are going to walk away from the US dollar for trade settlement and investment.

What are the realistic options on the table for us?

  • Default on the $39 Trillion
  • Inflate the currency via money printing
  • Revalue gold and issue gold backed treasury bonds
  • War
  • Other
Our leaders over the last few generations really screwed us, now it's everyone's turn to take a bite of the **** sandwich......Are you prepared?
Psycho Bunny
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Whether I get life's question right or wrong free will is an illusion.
Life is a game that plays us.
Are we dreaming of life or is life dreaming of us.
Applied Energy
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Been tryna tell ya'll we needed to end the Global Reserve status (via Bitcoin)...

10+ years running
rocky the dog
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Elections are when people find out what politicians stand for, and politicians find out what people will fall for.
Colonel Kurtz
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4
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I've said it a thousand times.

We will NEVER pay off our debt. We can't.

We owe roughly 1/3 - 1/4 of the entire existing worldwide money supply.

And we won't default.

My best bet is war wherein we refuse to pay money to combatant countries, thereby canceling that portion of our debt.

And we will most likely agree to help defend our allies in return for cancellation of the debt we owe them.

The other option, inflating ourselves out of it, seems to be an incredibly drastic move that I don't think a politician of any persuasion would want to entertain. Nobody wants to create a second Great depression.
Sid Farkas
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Paraphrasing Churchill: The US Dollar is the worst currency in the world, except for all the rest.

The US has 4% of the world's population and 25% of GDP with 60% of capital markets. We have the most mature and robust civil legal system...not to mention the fact that we (along with top allies in Japan and Israel) have a death grip on technology...

Good luck lolBrazil and China...It'll take a lot more than this agreement to change that.
Gaeilge
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The USD will be the global reserve currency until well after I am dead...I am 37
Sims
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Dungeon Crawler Carl said:




They are telling you whats coming soon..... Countries are going to walk away from the US dollar for trade settlement and investment.

What are the realistic options on the table for us?

  • Default on the $39 Trillion
  • Inflate the currency via money printing
  • Revalue gold and issue gold backed treasury bonds
  • War
  • Other
Our leaders over the last few generations really screwed us, now it's everyone's turn to take a bite of the **** sandwich......Are you prepared?

Is that available anywhere other than tiktok via twitter? There's not much about that video that appears to be legitimate.

It also ignores an extremely important variable to trade which is demand. Bilateral trade between Brazil and China in 2025 was app. $171B. Between Brazil and the US was $120B in 2024 - then tariffs happened because we know the source of the (Chinese) goods flowing through Brazil to the US - and in 2025 that bilateral number is closer to $40B. Between China and the US, trade in 2024 was around $700B with nearly 70% of that being imports to the US from China.

That's a lot to say...the entity buying all this stuff is the US.

These countries want to do bilateral settlement in something other than dollars? That's going to leave a mark but it's not a checkmate...or even system threatening move in and of itself.

Once they can replace the US demand for goods...particularly discretionary goods...then we're talking threat level midnight. We're not there yet.

Plus, none of this captures any discussion of stablecoins which in essence can serve to rob monetary sovereignty from foreign nations and allow their population to deal directly with USD personally and commercially where they may not have had access through domestic banks before.
Dungeon Crawler Carl
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Apparently it's from 2023 when he was a senator. But that doesn't change the overall results. He was just being honest.

And then there is this.... ran it through google AI for confirmation.



https://www.ft.com/content/c948b978-c22b-44b7-ba3d-4798e641e673
Quote:

In early February 2026, Chinese President Xi Jinping issued an explicit call for the renminbi (RMB) to attain global reserve currency status. While Beijing has long pursued internationalization, the directness of this declarationpublished in the Communist Party's flagship journal Qiushimarks a significant shift from cautious promotion to an overt challenge to the U.S. dollar's hegemony.

Strategic Objectives
Xi outlined a vision for China to become a "financial powerhouse" anchored by a "powerful currency". Key pillars of this strategy include:
  • Widespread Use: Expanding the RMB's role in international trade, cross-border investment, and foreign exchange markets.
  • Reserve Status: Positioning the yuan as a primary asset for central banks to hold as a safeguard against market volatility and U.S. sanctions.
  • Parallel Infrastructure: Strengthening the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) to rival the Western-led SWIFT system and promoting e-CNY (digital yuan) for direct international settlement.
  • Institutional Strength: Developing a powerful central bank, globally competitive financial institutions, and deep international financial centers.
Current Context and Timing
The remarks were originally delivered in a private 2024 speech to regional officials but were strategically released in February 2026. Analysts suggest the timing capitalizes on:
  • U.S. Dollar Weakness: The dollar has recently fallen to a four-year low, with central banks beginning to rethink their exposure amid U.S. political uncertainty.
  • Market Shifts: Gold prices reaching record highs of over $5,500 an ounce have created an opening for alternative reserve assets.
  • Geopolitical Fractures: Global "ruptures" and tensions have increased the desire for a strategic counterweight to limit U.S. financial leverage.


Ag with kids
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Talk about selective editing...

Here's the WHOLE video...




Notice that he is SENATOR Rubio in it...not Secretary of State. That's because he's talking about the failures of the Biden administration with regard to China...
You can turn off signatures, btw
Sims
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China can't obtain global reserve status with their currency without upending their entire monetary system. It would be a death knell for China's domestic economy for the renminbi to gain global reserve status.

Triffin's paradox would say that a global reserve currency can provide 2 of the following but not all 3 for the issuer

Capital mobility
monetary autonomy
exchange rate management

You can't do all three.

The US elects monetary autonomy and capital mobility - we are subject to inflation and structural trade defiicits.

China would have to give up it's currency manipulation & to a large degree it's domestic capital controls to achieve global reserve status. If that happens, their domestic economy implodes and gobs more internal capital floods out of the country than has been allowed in the last few decades.
MouthBQ98
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We exploit the hell out of this almost to the point of risking it all collapsing, but we are still very much the least bad option. Nothing else is yet currently close. We are still the biggest economy with the biggest non-faked GDP snd the most powerful military to back it. Whose currency is reliable enough to challenge?
ErnestEndeavor
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Exactly. Is a major currency manipulator and they are actually 300% more in debt than we are. If our debt situation is bad theirs is apocalyptic.
BTKAG97
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4 said:

My best bet is war wherein we refuse to pay money to combatant countries, thereby canceling that portion of our debt.

And we will most likely agree to help defend our allies in return for cancellation of the debt we owe them.

Just a note regarding war:

As of early 2025, foreign countries and investors hold approximately $9.1 trillion to $9.4 trillion in U.S. federal debt, representing roughly 30-32% of total publicly held U.S. Treasury securities. Japan is the largest foreign holder, with roughly $1.1 trillion in holdings, followed by China and the United Kingdom.
Sims
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4 said:

The other option, inflating ourselves out of it, seems to be an incredibly drastic move that I don't think a politician of any persuasion would want to entertain. Nobody wants to create a second Great depression.

We do this everyday. They love it.

Essentially the goal would be to keep nominal GDP growth rate above the average interest rate on government debt.

The common coliquial used today is "run it hot."

You're essentially growing government receipts at a quicker pace than you are growing debt service payments (all else being equal). Unfortunately, not all else is equal and the higher receipts tend to just get used for other excessive, new budget adventures.
TAMU1990
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Why don't we eliminate all of the fraud and downsize government? That sounds like a good start.
Signel
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It is cute that people actually thing China could replace us with the Yuan. China needs us way way way more than we need them......
one MEEN Ag
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Once again, what exactly is a currency anyway? Currencies are just access to a walled garden of businesses who do business in those currencies.

and

Currency represents half a trade.

If I buy a million barrels of oil from China, they are going to want me to pay in chinese Yuan. I now have to figure out what to do with a gazirrion chinese dollars. My choices are: Buy something from their walled garden (Yuan) to complete the trade or trade my currency to someone who wants Yuan and will do the same.

I trade oil for Yuan and then Yuan for some chinese commodity, lets say steel.

At the end of the day I've just traded oil for steel but doing so with efficient liquidity.

If Brazil and China want to trade amongst themselves, great. Both of those countries suck at having stable currencies. Nobody wants to hold onto them for fear the other country is going to debase their currency.
But also, if everyone is always demanding their local currency, everyone winds up with realistically 60-70 different currencies. And that becomes unsustainable.

So while everything is going to become looser, it will not become untangled until there is a currency more stable than american dollars.

BusterAg
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TAMU1990 said:

Why don't we eliminate all of the fraud and downsize government? That sounds like a good start.

I think if we eliminated fraud in the US government, we could possibly pay of the debt in something like 10 years.

If we got serious about fraud, we could probably seize about $5 trillion to $10 trillion in fraudulently gained assets.
BusterAg
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The US will not fall from reserve status until the consumption of the rest of the world catches up to us.

We consume a ton. People want to sell to our consumers. They need $'s to do that.

The reason we consume a ton is we create a ton of value due to hard work, financial rewards for intelligent risk taking, and a culture that facilitates and rewards innovation. We do that better than everyone else, and its not even close.

If we did fall out of reserve status, we would suffer from pretty heavy inflation. However, the $ would get very weak very fast, and the entire world would fall into a depression because they wouldn't be able to sell as much to the US anymore. Our purchase of imports would plummet.
javajaws
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BusterAg said:

TAMU1990 said:

Why don't we eliminate all of the fraud and downsize government? That sounds like a good start.

I think if we eliminated fraud in the US government, we could possibly pay of the debt in something like 10 years.

If we got serious about fraud, we could probably seize about $5 trillion to $10 trillion in fraudulently gained assets.

We can't end fraud fast enough to outpace the growth in interest debt.

So, no - that won't realistically work.
Phatbob
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We are the fastest camper by far. The bear has pretty much all the other ones to eat first before it gets to us. It's a big problem, but we've made sure everyone else will collapse before us.
13B
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4 said:

I've said it a thousand times.

We will NEVER pay off our debt. We can't.

We owe roughly 1/3 - 1/4 of the entire existing worldwide money supply.

And we won't default.

My best bet is war wherein we refuse to pay money to combatant countries, thereby canceling that portion of our debt.

And we will most likely agree to help defend our allies in return for cancellation of the debt we owe them.

The other option, inflating ourselves out of it, seems to be an incredibly drastic move that I don't think a politician of any persuasion would want to entertain. Nobody wants to create a second Great depression.

So, your best, first option is WW3?
Kansas Kid
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BusterAg said:

The US will not fall from reserve status until the consumption of the rest of the world catches up to us.

We consume a ton. People want to sell to our consumers. They need $'s to do that.

The reason we consume a ton is we create a ton of value due to hard work, financial rewards for intelligent risk taking, and a culture that facilitates and rewards innovation. We do that better than everyone else, and its not even close.

If we did fall out of reserve status, we would suffer from pretty heavy inflation. However, the $ would get very weak very fast, and the entire world would fall into a depression because they wouldn't be able to sell as much to the US anymore. Our purchase of imports would plummet.

The real reason we are the reserve currency is because we have the best military. That has always been what determines the world currency (although that country has also been one of the leading economics which you need to be to have the strongest military)
Sims
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Kansas Kid said:

BusterAg said:

The US will not fall from reserve status until the consumption of the rest of the world catches up to us.

We consume a ton. People want to sell to our consumers. They need $'s to do that.

The reason we consume a ton is we create a ton of value due to hard work, financial rewards for intelligent risk taking, and a culture that facilitates and rewards innovation. We do that better than everyone else, and its not even close.

If we did fall out of reserve status, we would suffer from pretty heavy inflation. However, the $ would get very weak very fast, and the entire world would fall into a depression because they wouldn't be able to sell as much to the US anymore. Our purchase of imports would plummet.

The real reason we are the reserve currency is because we have the best military. That has always been what determines the world currency (although that country has also been one of the leading economics which you need to be to have the strongest military)

Agreed.. to answer one MEEN Ag's question a bit tongue in cheek...

What is currency? Whatever the sovereign power says it is.
one MEEN Ag
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Kansas Kid said:

BusterAg said:

The US will not fall from reserve status until the consumption of the rest of the world catches up to us.

We consume a ton. People want to sell to our consumers. They need $'s to do that.

The reason we consume a ton is we create a ton of value due to hard work, financial rewards for intelligent risk taking, and a culture that facilitates and rewards innovation. We do that better than everyone else, and its not even close.

If we did fall out of reserve status, we would suffer from pretty heavy inflation. However, the $ would get very weak very fast, and the entire world would fall into a depression because they wouldn't be able to sell as much to the US anymore. Our purchase of imports would plummet.

The real reason we are the reserve currency is because we have the best military. That has always been what determines the world currency (although that country has also been one of the leading economics which you need to be to have the strongest military)

Also, America is not going to surrender its technological and hegemonic advantage in global military deployment to another country. You have to take it by force. There is basically no other nation on earth that can do what america does militarily. And no one will be allowed to become a true peer rival in capabilities either.

No one else will challenge america's military might head on, and you can't replace reserve currency status through subversion. Eventually a future iteration of America will get tired of Chinese adversarial subversion and go salt Carthage.


BusterAg
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javajaws said:

BusterAg said:

TAMU1990 said:

Why don't we eliminate all of the fraud and downsize government? That sounds like a good start.

I think if we eliminated fraud in the US government, we could possibly pay of the debt in something like 10 years.

If we got serious about fraud, we could probably seize about $5 trillion to $10 trillion in fraudulently gained assets.

We can't end fraud fast enough to outpace the growth in interest debt.

So, no - that won't realistically work.

If we do eliminate fraud, it will come swiftly and ferociously.

We could potentially hit a precipice where the pace of technology development is faster than the government can hide their fraud.

How much have our AI systems evolved since this time last year when Doge was just getting started? Where will we be when the next POTUS takes office?

At some point, someone is going to have the capability to crawl through all of the dirty payments and shine a light on ERETHING! It just takes one person in a position of power that has the courage to burn the whole system down, and it goes down, fast. The government won't be able to move fast enough to counteract a motivated whistle blower with access to government systems. If the POTUS made every payment that the US government has made public, it would take hours, not days, for the weaponized autists armed with AI tools to trace down all of the corruption and shine a light on it.

Very low probability of it happening, but, if it does, it will be bloody, and happen quickly.
BusterAg
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Kansas Kid said:

BusterAg said:

The US will not fall from reserve status until the consumption of the rest of the world catches up to us.

We consume a ton. People want to sell to our consumers. They need $'s to do that.

The reason we consume a ton is we create a ton of value due to hard work, financial rewards for intelligent risk taking, and a culture that facilitates and rewards innovation. We do that better than everyone else, and its not even close.

If we did fall out of reserve status, we would suffer from pretty heavy inflation. However, the $ would get very weak very fast, and the entire world would fall into a depression because they wouldn't be able to sell as much to the US anymore. Our purchase of imports would plummet.

The real reason we are the reserve currency is because we have the best military. That has always been what determines the world currency (although that country has also been one of the leading economics which you need to be to have the strongest military)

This was definitely true in the pre-atomic age. I'm not so sure now. Kinetic imperialism is mostly gone.

The entire world economy is hooked on our consumption. You can't sell us goods without buying $'s. And, if you buy a lot of $'s and just park them in your banks, you make your currency weak against the $, and you can sell us even MORE goods. So, it is almost the reserve currency by default. Other countries hoarding dollars 1) shores up their balance sheets; 2) Makes their imports more competitive to consumers in the US; and 3) provides access to our consumers.

If the $ falls out of favor as the reserve currency quickly, everyone's economy's would implode because they couldn't export to the US anymore.
samurai_science
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Ag with kids said:

Talk about selective editing...

Here's the WHOLE video...




Notice that he is SENATOR Rubio in it...not Secretary of State. That's because he's talking about the failures of the Biden administration with regard to China...

Take the L OP
The Kraken
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Some of you really should vet anything off social media before you post it.
Yukon Cornelius
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Countries will realize why they used the dollar in the first place. Liquidity and trust.
TexasAggiesWin
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The Kraken said:

Some of you really should vet anything off social media before you post it.

They seen it on the internet, it must be true
Burnsey
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I sleep soundly knowing that for the next decade that the US will remain the world's reserve currency and that the ChiComs can go pound sand, tea, and rice.
LOYAL AG
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BusterAg said:

Kansas Kid said:

BusterAg said:

The US will not fall from reserve status until the consumption of the rest of the world catches up to us.

We consume a ton. People want to sell to our consumers. They need $'s to do that.

The reason we consume a ton is we create a ton of value due to hard work, financial rewards for intelligent risk taking, and a culture that facilitates and rewards innovation. We do that better than everyone else, and its not even close.

If we did fall out of reserve status, we would suffer from pretty heavy inflation. However, the $ would get very weak very fast, and the entire world would fall into a depression because they wouldn't be able to sell as much to the US anymore. Our purchase of imports would plummet.

The real reason we are the reserve currency is because we have the best military. That has always been what determines the world currency (although that country has also been one of the leading economics which you need to be to have the strongest military)

This was definitely true in the pre-atomic age. I'm not so sure now. Kinetic imperialism is mostly gone.

The entire world economy is hooked on our consumption. You can't sell us goods without buying $'s. And, if you buy a lot of $'s and just park them in your banks, you make your currency weak against the $, and you can sell us even MORE goods. So, it is almost the reserve currency by default. Other countries hoarding dollars 1) shores up their balance sheets; 2) Makes their imports more competitive to consumers in the US; and 3) provides access to our consumers.

If the $ falls out of favor as the reserve currency quickly, everyone's economy's would implode because they couldn't export to the US anymore.


It's not our ability to wage war. It's the Navy. Trade has always been about the ability to protect trade vessels on the open seas. Post WWII nobody could do that for themselves so we did it for everyone and we still do. If we stop doing it trade ends with the first ship that's stolen in transit by either Somali pirates or a rival nation. Trade exists because we say it does. If nations stop trading the way we want them to there's no guarantee for them that we won't be that rival nation. It just is what it is.
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