AI in tech industry employment: correlation or causation

1,160 Views | 27 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by AustinAg2K
Logos Stick
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ChatGPT was first released to the public on November 30, 2022.

We are now 2/10ths of 1 percent lower than where we would be on tech share as a percentage of total employment based on the slope going back to 2005. A 20 year trend has been reversed.

Based on this data, it seems AI is negatively impacting tech employment. Change my mind. If you want to blame offshoring, please provide some data.

Quote:

Meanwhile, software development job postings on Indeed have dropped -71% since the February 2022 peak.

Postings are now -33% below pre-pandemic levels.




infinity ag
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AI is just an excuse for CEOs to cut jobs. They are always looking for reasons to hide their failures. Other than some basic use cases, AI isn't doing much YET that warrants firing 10k and 20k people. The real reason is these guys effed up, want to offshore, so blame AI while filing for more H1Bs because... yes... "we cannot find skills in America so we have to look in India".

Notice that no company tells us what exactly they do that uses AI that needs firing people. The only things they say is they now have a chatbot which replaces customer support, and some old stuff like that. They know Americans cannot tolerate details, so they gaslight us like this.

Don't fall for it man.
Logos Stick
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infinity ag said:

AI is just an excuse for CEOs to cut jobs. They are always looking for reasons to hide their failures. Other than some basic use cases, AI isn't doing much YET that warrants firing 10k and 20k people. The real reason is these guys effed up, want to offshore, so blame AI while filing for more H1Bs because... yes... "we cannot find skills in America so we have to look in India".

Don't fall for it man.


Data?
infinity ag
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Logos Stick said:

infinity ag said:

AI is just an excuse for CEOs to cut jobs. They are always looking for reasons to hide their failures. Other than some basic use cases, AI isn't doing much YET that warrants firing 10k and 20k people. The real reason is these guys effed up, want to offshore, so blame AI while filing for more H1Bs because... yes... "we cannot find skills in America so we have to look in India".

Don't fall for it man.


Data?


Give me data that AI is the reason for firing people. Other than "Mr CEO said" there is none.
They want to cut costs, they want to offshore, they use AI as a good reason to hide underneath.

I don't believe CEOs.
Logos Stick
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Jassy says he needs more money for the AI race, so he's cutting even more.

Quote:

Amazon announced layoffs of 16,000 corporate employees on January 28, 2026, marking the second major round in three months after 14,000 cuts in October 2025, primarily affecting AWS, Retail, Prime Video, and HR to reduce management layers and boost efficiency.


CEO Andy Jassy attributed the move to "rising competition over AI," aligning with Amazon's $100 billion+ investment in AI infrastructure, though reports emphasize broader cost controls following pandemic-era overhiring.


infinity ag
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Logos Stick said:

Jassy says he needs more money for the AI race, so he's cutting even more.

Quote:

Amazon announced layoffs of 16,000 corporate employees on January 28, 2026, marking the second major round in three months after 14,000 cuts in October 2025, primarily affecting AWS, Retail, Prime Video, and HR to reduce management layers and boost efficiency.


CEO Andy Jassy attributed the move to "rising competition over AI," aligning with Amazon's $100 billion+ investment in AI infrastructure, though reports emphasize broader cost controls following pandemic-era overhiring.





Jassy is just gassy again.

Don't believe him or any other mega-CEO.
aggie93
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infinity ag said:

AI is just an excuse for CEOs to cut jobs. They are always looking for reasons to hide their failures. Other than some basic use cases, AI isn't doing much YET that warrants firing 10k and 20k people. The real reason is these guys effed up, want to offshore, so blame AI while filing for more H1Bs because... yes... "we cannot find skills in America so we have to look in India".

Notice that no company tells us what exactly they do that uses AI that needs firing people. The only things they say is they now have a chatbot which replaces customer support, and some old stuff like that. They know Americans cannot tolerate details, so they gaslight us like this.

Don't fall for it man.

The reality is that AI is making it much more efficient for coding. Look at something like Claude, it is making people far more productive once they learn how to use it. Thus you will end up with the need for fewer employees who are more productive. Ironically this will hit the offshore jobs harder because most of those jobs are less technical and more repetitive. Robotics is also going to have a massive impact across a broad spectrum of industries. If you look at Optimus and their competitors it is going to be a dramatic shift in the next few years. That's just one example.

The world is changing really fast.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan
Logos Stick
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infinity ag said:

Logos Stick said:

Jassy says he needs more money for the AI race, so he's cutting even more.

Quote:

Amazon announced layoffs of 16,000 corporate employees on January 28, 2026, marking the second major round in three months after 14,000 cuts in October 2025, primarily affecting AWS, Retail, Prime Video, and HR to reduce management layers and boost efficiency.


CEO Andy Jassy attributed the move to "rising competition over AI," aligning with Amazon's $100 billion+ investment in AI infrastructure, though reports emphasize broader cost controls following pandemic-era overhiring.





Jassy is just gassy again.

Don't believe him or any other mega-CEO.



Do you believe the tech giants are massively spending on AI? If so why, since per you, it doesn't increase productivity and doesn't replace labor. What is the end goal of the massive spend? Based on what I see, the main players have spent almost $1 trillion thus far.
japantiger
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Logos Stick said:

Jassy says he needs more money for the AI race, so he's cutting even more.

Quote:

Amazon announced layoffs of 16,000 corporate employees on January 28, 2026, marking the second major round in three months after 14,000 cuts in October 2025, primarily affecting AWS, Retail, Prime Video, and HR to reduce management layers and boost efficiency.


CEO Andy Jassy attributed the move to "rising competition over AI," aligning with Amazon's $100 billion+ investment in AI infrastructure, though reports emphasize broader cost controls following pandemic-era overhiring.




In 2018, Amazon employed 647,500. In their Q3 earnings, their employment was 1,578,000. This represents 1% of their staffing.
“It was miraculous. It was almost no trick at all, he saw, to turn vice into virtue and slander into truth, impotence into abstinence, arrogance into humility, plunder into philanthropy, thievery into honor, blasphemy into wisdom, brutality into patriotism, and sadism into justice. Anybody could do it; it required no brains at all. It merely required no character.”
Joseph Heller, Catch 22
infinity ag
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Logos Stick said:

infinity ag said:

Logos Stick said:

Jassy says he needs more money for the AI race, so he's cutting even more.

Quote:

Amazon announced layoffs of 16,000 corporate employees on January 28, 2026, marking the second major round in three months after 14,000 cuts in October 2025, primarily affecting AWS, Retail, Prime Video, and HR to reduce management layers and boost efficiency.


CEO Andy Jassy attributed the move to "rising competition over AI," aligning with Amazon's $100 billion+ investment in AI infrastructure, though reports emphasize broader cost controls following pandemic-era overhiring.





Jassy is just gassy again.

Don't believe him or any other mega-CEO.



Do you believe the tech giants are massively spending on AI? If so why, since per you, it doesn't increase productivity and doesn't replace labor. What is the end goal of the massive spend? Based on what I see, the main players have spent almost $1 trillion thus far.


Yes, they are. The question is why.
My thoughts.

A tech company cannot be seen as sitting silent and not having an amazing thing they are working on. Meta did it with "Metaverse". I don't for a moment think Zuck is such a doofus that he didn't think it would fail, but he went along with it anyway. Why? Because it keeps investors interested and the stock price up. That is it. I am sure if not at the beginning, Zuck knew that this wasn't going anywhere. He kept on pumping it until the next big thing came along (AI). Then he quietly dumped Metaverse and is laying people off whom he glorified at one point.

Now everyone is on the AI bandwagon. No one really knows where this is heading or the money making use cases, but they have a general idea of what is needed and do not want to be left behind. Big time FOMO at play. The CEOs want to be seen as "investing in tech of the future". Why? Same old reason - to keep investors interested and buying their stock and to not get fired for not having a vision. They are safe if they have a bad vision that does not pan out but if they have no vision, they are screwed. So every tech CEO has a grand vision they blather about.

You and I have not gone inside Amazon and seen exactly how they use AI to increase productivity. I am in tech (not at Amazon) and I use Claude to wrote code to help my various projects like my investing work. It is amazing. But will Claude do without me? No. It makes me very efficient but remove me and Claude just sits there. Some jobs can be eliminated and replaced by AI but only naive clueless people think AI is replacing 10s of 1000s of people. If it is, I want to see it and I have questions. Robots are replacing people in warehouses and they are saving costs there, that is great and is actually efficiency. Firing here and claiming you need to hire in India? NO. Not buying that.

End goal is simple. AI will run its course just like cryptocurrency and NFTs (no one talks about this now) and something new will come up. All the CEOs will abandon AI projects, fire all the AI grifters and hire people in this new tech. AI infra will be written off just like Zuck wrote off Metaverse. Rinse and repeat. Stock price stays high and CEO keeps his job for "vision". They make some money along the way.

Which is why I say, stop thinking about being an employee, become an investor. That is where the money is and will be.
infinity ag
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japantiger said:

Logos Stick said:

Jassy says he needs more money for the AI race, so he's cutting even more.

Quote:

Amazon announced layoffs of 16,000 corporate employees on January 28, 2026, marking the second major round in three months after 14,000 cuts in October 2025, primarily affecting AWS, Retail, Prime Video, and HR to reduce management layers and boost efficiency.


CEO Andy Jassy attributed the move to "rising competition over AI," aligning with Amazon's $100 billion+ investment in AI infrastructure, though reports emphasize broader cost controls following pandemic-era overhiring.




In 2018, Amazon employed 647,500. In their Q3 earnings, their employment was 1,578,000. This represents 1% of their staffing.


I am sure there a lot of devils in the details.

They layoff highly paid people in the US and replace them with people in India or H1Bs. Almost as highly paid.

The 1.5M number means nothing as a large number would be bus drivers, janitors, warehouse people who have low salaries.

Fire high salaried in the US, replace in India and fool people that layoffs are small percentage-wise.

They want to turn the US into a country of HVACs, plumbers and electricians, which is what some Boomers here prescribed that we become.
jh0400
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Tech companies overhired coming out of COVID due to the amount of money what was being poured into them based on the amount of money that was injected into the system to keep the economy afloat. While AI is a contributor, a lot of this is still an unwind of those decisions and policies.
hph6203
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COVID -> Remote Work -> Hire managers to make sure remote work is actually work and not laptop by the pool day -> Vaccine -> Return to Office -> No longer need adult daycare employees at the same rate -> Layoffs of daycare workers
japantiger
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infinity ag said:

japantiger said:

Logos Stick said:

Jassy says he needs more money for the AI race, so he's cutting even more.

Quote:

Amazon announced layoffs of 16,000 corporate employees on January 28, 2026, marking the second major round in three months after 14,000 cuts in October 2025, primarily affecting AWS, Retail, Prime Video, and HR to reduce management layers and boost efficiency.


CEO Andy Jassy attributed the move to "rising competition over AI," aligning with Amazon's $100 billion+ investment in AI infrastructure, though reports emphasize broader cost controls following pandemic-era overhiring.




In 2018, Amazon employed 647,500. In their Q3 earnings, their employment was 1,578,000. This represents 1% of their staffing.


I am sure there a lot of devils in the details.

They layoff highly paid people in the US and replace them with people in India or H1Bs. Almost as highly paid.

The 1.5M number means nothing as a large number would be bus drivers, janitors, warehouse people who have low salaries.

Fire high salaried in the US, replace in India and fool people that layoffs are small percentage-wise.

They want to turn the US into a country of HVACs, plumbers and electricians, which is what some Boomers here prescribed that we become.

Or, you could just read their statements where they tell you they represent a portion of their 350k corporate workers in AWS, Alexa, Prime, Devises, Supply Chain and Advertising in the US, Canada, Costa Rica, Europe and Asia.

As my senior drill instructor used to say. "There're three things you can count on privates...the sun gonna rise, the sun gonna set and the private don't ****ing no". There's three things you can count on "....InfinityAg gonna claim corporate super villain sending the highest paid American jobs to Indian slave laborers"...
“It was miraculous. It was almost no trick at all, he saw, to turn vice into virtue and slander into truth, impotence into abstinence, arrogance into humility, plunder into philanthropy, thievery into honor, blasphemy into wisdom, brutality into patriotism, and sadism into justice. Anybody could do it; it required no brains at all. It merely required no character.”
Joseph Heller, Catch 22
Charpie
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jh0400 said:

Tech companies overhired coming out of COVID due to the amount of money what was being poured into them based on the amount of money that was injected into the system to keep the economy afloat. While AI is a contributor, a lot of this is still an unwind of those decisions and policies.

This. This is a right size measure for Amazon.
CrockerCock00
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Many companies, like American Airlines, are bypassing the H-1Bs and just opening up physical locations in India (Hyderabad in American's case) and badging them as employees and shifting US jobs to India. No H-1Bs needed, no RIF because they still have the same number of employees, but 30% of their IT jobs are shifting over there.
infinity ag
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japantiger said:

infinity ag said:

japantiger said:

Logos Stick said:

Jassy says he needs more money for the AI race, so he's cutting even more.

Quote:

Amazon announced layoffs of 16,000 corporate employees on January 28, 2026, marking the second major round in three months after 14,000 cuts in October 2025, primarily affecting AWS, Retail, Prime Video, and HR to reduce management layers and boost efficiency.


CEO Andy Jassy attributed the move to "rising competition over AI," aligning with Amazon's $100 billion+ investment in AI infrastructure, though reports emphasize broader cost controls following pandemic-era overhiring.




In 2018, Amazon employed 647,500. In their Q3 earnings, their employment was 1,578,000. This represents 1% of their staffing.


I am sure there a lot of devils in the details.

They layoff highly paid people in the US and replace them with people in India or H1Bs. Almost as highly paid.

The 1.5M number means nothing as a large number would be bus drivers, janitors, warehouse people who have low salaries.

Fire high salaried in the US, replace in India and fool people that layoffs are small percentage-wise.

They want to turn the US into a country of HVACs, plumbers and electricians, which is what some Boomers here prescribed that we become.

Or, you could just read their statements where they tell you they represent a portion of their 350k corporate workers in AWS, Alexa, Prime, Devises, Supply Chain and Advertising in the US, Canada, Costa Rica, Europe and Asia.

As my senior drill instructor used to say. "There're three things you can count on privates...the sun gonna rise, the sun gonna set and the private don't ****ing no". There's three things you can count on "....InfinityAg gonna claim corporate super villain sending the highest paid American jobs to Indian slave laborers"...


My rule No 1: Don't trust corporations. Always verify what the CEO says.

So "they tell you" means nothing to me unless I see irrefutable data that is not doctored.

And yes, the goal is to replace high paid American jobs to Indian slaves. They are subservient, lower paid and easy to fire.
infinity ag
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CrockerCock00 said:

Many companies, like American Airlines, are bypassing the H-1Bs and just opening up physical locations in India (Hyderabad in American's case) and badging them as employees and shifting US jobs to India. No H-1Bs needed, no RIF because they still have the same number of employees, but 30% of their IT jobs are shifting over there.


Good.
Then Trump applies planned 25% tariffs on offshored jobs. Let them hire as many as they like in India, but pay up.
japantiger
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infinity ag said:

japantiger said:

infinity ag said:

japantiger said:

Logos Stick said:

Jassy says he needs more money for the AI race, so he's cutting even more.

Quote:

Amazon announced layoffs of 16,000 corporate employees on January 28, 2026, marking the second major round in three months after 14,000 cuts in October 2025, primarily affecting AWS, Retail, Prime Video, and HR to reduce management layers and boost efficiency.


CEO Andy Jassy attributed the move to "rising competition over AI," aligning with Amazon's $100 billion+ investment in AI infrastructure, though reports emphasize broader cost controls following pandemic-era overhiring.




In 2018, Amazon employed 647,500. In their Q3 earnings, their employment was 1,578,000. This represents 1% of their staffing.


I am sure there a lot of devils in the details.

They layoff highly paid people in the US and replace them with people in India or H1Bs. Almost as highly paid.

The 1.5M number means nothing as a large number would be bus drivers, janitors, warehouse people who have low salaries.

Fire high salaried in the US, replace in India and fool people that layoffs are small percentage-wise.

They want to turn the US into a country of HVACs, plumbers and electricians, which is what some Boomers here prescribed that we become.

Or, you could just read their statements where they tell you they represent a portion of their 350k corporate workers in AWS, Alexa, Prime, Devises, Supply Chain and Advertising in the US, Canada, Costa Rica, Europe and Asia.

As my senior drill instructor used to say. "There're three things you can count on privates...the sun gonna rise, the sun gonna set and the private don't ****ing no". There's three things you can count on "....InfinityAg gonna claim corporate super villain sending the highest paid American jobs to Indian slave laborers"...


My rule No 1: Don't trust corporations. Always verify what the CEO says.

So "they tell you" means nothing to me unless I see irrefutable data that is not doctored.

And yes, the goal is to replace high paid American jobs to Indian slaves. They are subservient, lower paid and easy to fire.

Step away from the internet for a while dude...obviously this stuff is challenging your reasoning skills
“It was miraculous. It was almost no trick at all, he saw, to turn vice into virtue and slander into truth, impotence into abstinence, arrogance into humility, plunder into philanthropy, thievery into honor, blasphemy into wisdom, brutality into patriotism, and sadism into justice. Anybody could do it; it required no brains at all. It merely required no character.”
Joseph Heller, Catch 22
Logos Stick
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jh0400 said:

Tech companies overhired coming out of COVID due to the amount of money what was being poured into them based on the amount of money that was injected into the system to keep the economy afloat. While AI is a contributor, a lot of this is still an unwind of those decisions and policies.


If you look at the graph, they doesn't explain the 2/10ths dip below the slope. That's the question, not getting rid of the bubble above it.
infinity ag
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japantiger said:

infinity ag said:

japantiger said:

infinity ag said:

japantiger said:

Logos Stick said:

Jassy says he needs more money for the AI race, so he's cutting even more.

Quote:

Amazon announced layoffs of 16,000 corporate employees on January 28, 2026, marking the second major round in three months after 14,000 cuts in October 2025, primarily affecting AWS, Retail, Prime Video, and HR to reduce management layers and boost efficiency.


CEO Andy Jassy attributed the move to "rising competition over AI," aligning with Amazon's $100 billion+ investment in AI infrastructure, though reports emphasize broader cost controls following pandemic-era overhiring.




In 2018, Amazon employed 647,500. In their Q3 earnings, their employment was 1,578,000. This represents 1% of their staffing.


I am sure there a lot of devils in the details.

They layoff highly paid people in the US and replace them with people in India or H1Bs. Almost as highly paid.

The 1.5M number means nothing as a large number would be bus drivers, janitors, warehouse people who have low salaries.

Fire high salaried in the US, replace in India and fool people that layoffs are small percentage-wise.

They want to turn the US into a country of HVACs, plumbers and electricians, which is what some Boomers here prescribed that we become.

Or, you could just read their statements where they tell you they represent a portion of their 350k corporate workers in AWS, Alexa, Prime, Devises, Supply Chain and Advertising in the US, Canada, Costa Rica, Europe and Asia.

As my senior drill instructor used to say. "There're three things you can count on privates...the sun gonna rise, the sun gonna set and the private don't ****ing no". There's three things you can count on "....InfinityAg gonna claim corporate super villain sending the highest paid American jobs to Indian slave laborers"...


My rule No 1: Don't trust corporations. Always verify what the CEO says.

So "they tell you" means nothing to me unless I see irrefutable data that is not doctored.

And yes, the goal is to replace high paid American jobs to Indian slaves. They are subservient, lower paid and easy to fire.

Step away from the internet for a while dude...obviously this stuff is challenging your reasoning skills


I was hoping for a better comeback instead of personal insults.

If you have a thought out response, I am listening.

G. hirsutum Ag
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Logos Stick said:

jh0400 said:

Tech companies overhired coming out of COVID due to the amount of money what was being poured into them based on the amount of money that was injected into the system to keep the economy afloat. While AI is a contributor, a lot of this is still an unwind of those decisions and policies.


If you look at the graph, they doesn't explain the 2/10ths dip below the slope. That's the question, not getting rid of the bubble above it.


Money got cheap; companies took advantage and took on debt to grow and/or stay afloat, then money got expensive and inflation went insane and the bills are a lot harder to pay. It's easier and faster to blame AI and cut overhead to make Wall Street happy and keep the stock price going up.
AustinAg2K
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If AI is really revolutionizing all of these things, why does it seem like only the Big Tech companies are laying off? If it's really making everyone more efficient, why wouldn't you see a bunch of layoffs from financial companies, retail companies, energy, etc. The only thing that people seem to consistently say it's useful for is coding, and even that is controversial.

Coincidentally, Big Tech is also who expanded the most during covid.
japantiger
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infinity ag said:

japantiger said:

infinity ag said:

japantiger said:

infinity ag said:

japantiger said:

Logos Stick said:

Jassy says he needs more money for the AI race, so he's cutting even more.

Quote:

Amazon announced layoffs of 16,000 corporate employees on January 28, 2026, marking the second major round in three months after 14,000 cuts in October 2025, primarily affecting AWS, Retail, Prime Video, and HR to reduce management layers and boost efficiency.


CEO Andy Jassy attributed the move to "rising competition over AI," aligning with Amazon's $100 billion+ investment in AI infrastructure, though reports emphasize broader cost controls following pandemic-era overhiring.




In 2018, Amazon employed 647,500. In their Q3 earnings, their employment was 1,578,000. This represents 1% of their staffing.


I am sure there a lot of devils in the details.

They layoff highly paid people in the US and replace them with people in India or H1Bs. Almost as highly paid.

The 1.5M number means nothing as a large number would be bus drivers, janitors, warehouse people who have low salaries.

Fire high salaried in the US, replace in India and fool people that layoffs are small percentage-wise.

They want to turn the US into a country of HVACs, plumbers and electricians, which is what some Boomers here prescribed that we become.

Or, you could just read their statements where they tell you they represent a portion of their 350k corporate workers in AWS, Alexa, Prime, Devises, Supply Chain and Advertising in the US, Canada, Costa Rica, Europe and Asia.

As my senior drill instructor used to say. "There're three things you can count on privates...the sun gonna rise, the sun gonna set and the private don't ****ing no". There's three things you can count on "....InfinityAg gonna claim corporate super villain sending the highest paid American jobs to Indian slave laborers"...


My rule No 1: Don't trust corporations. Always verify what the CEO says.

So "they tell you" means nothing to me unless I see irrefutable data that is not doctored.

And yes, the goal is to replace high paid American jobs to Indian slaves. They are subservient, lower paid and easy to fire.

Step away from the internet for a while dude...obviously this stuff is challenging your reasoning skills


I was hoping for a better comeback instead of personal insults.

If you have a thought out response, I am listening.



You posted a cartoon super villain plot as rationale for your position...and you expect a thought out response?
“It was miraculous. It was almost no trick at all, he saw, to turn vice into virtue and slander into truth, impotence into abstinence, arrogance into humility, plunder into philanthropy, thievery into honor, blasphemy into wisdom, brutality into patriotism, and sadism into justice. Anybody could do it; it required no brains at all. It merely required no character.”
Joseph Heller, Catch 22
hph6203
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It's not. I'm in the camp it will cause disruption but it has not to a significant degree yet. 5 years and it will be a valid talking point. Today it's just COVID corrections.
jh0400
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AustinAg2K said:

If AI is really revolutionizing all of these things, why does it seem like only the Big Tech companies are laying off? If it's really making everyone more efficient, why wouldn't you see a bunch of layoffs from financial companies, retail companies, energy, etc. The only thing that people seem to consistently say it's useful for is coding, and even that is controversial.

Coincidentally, Big Tech is also who expanded the most during covid.


You'd be hard pressed to find a software company that hasn't done layoffs in the last 2-3 years. Public companies have been forced to become profitable, a lot of public companies have gone private and completely revamped their cost structures, and venture funding for non-AI companies isn't what it used to be. The other thing that may be happening is that companies are reducing HC spend to allocate dollars to infrastructure for AI model training. That's the expensive part.
infinity ag
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nm
AustinAg2K
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hph6203 said:

It's not. I'm in the camp it will cause disruption but it has not to a significant degree yet. 5 years and it will be a valid talking point. Today it's just COVID corrections.


This is where I'm at. It's biggest effect will be in 5-10 years. I think comparison to dotcom in the 90s is very accurate. Eventually this thing is going to pop and we'll have a huge crash. My prediction is that in the next year or two OpenAI will fail (there no way they can meet their spending), and that will kick things off. After the dust settles there will be more if a focus on AI profitability and you'll have new Unicorns emerge that are much stronger financially. That's when you'll really see useful products.
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