TommyBrady said:
Russia can't beat Ukraine but they are going to attack all of Europe instead. Solid line of thinking.
You jest, but there is a lot of logic behind it. War is costly in money and lives, and Europe doesn't want to be directly involved in a full blown war because of that. The threat is enough to influence decision making.
And even if Russia went to war with Europe, now would be the best time. This is probably the least likely we'll ever be to intervene, so they'd potentially only be fighting Europe. Remember, NATO Article 5 only requires support/assistance, not be actual military support and fighting. Europe may also be reluctant to engage in any kind of protracted conflict because that means a lot of dead Europeans and a larger migrant population percentage. They also probably don't want to throw migrants or second generation immigrants into the gifting because then they'll be left with battle hardened and trained North Africans and Middle Easterners coming back.
And Russia doesn't have to roll Europe like we did Germany or Iraq for it to be a win. Anything that disrupts European aid to Ukraine would weaken their ability to resist drone attacks and assaults. If they can occupy the Europeans, they can use the distraction to maybe finally make a breakthrough in Ukraine.
There is also the potential that they invade some smaller Eastern European countries, dig in within an area, and the Western Europeans intervene only to stop their advance and not retake territory because it is too costly. Russia gets land, and the European alliance is ultimately weakened by mistrust.
There are a lot of potential benefits to Russia. The only downside is losing men and material, and they don't seem to care.
