The Flight 93 administration, the fourth turning, and the rise of the network state

2,725 Views | 23 Replies | Last: 5 mo ago by LOYAL AG
Its Texas Aggies, dammit
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Balaji Srinivasan co-founded 23andMe and was the CTO of Coinbase. His book The Network State is on my to-read list.

He calls the current US administration the Flight 93 administration because of his belief that a retreat by the US from a global empire to a regional power in a multi-polar world in inevitable. In other words, the plane is going down and they are trying to make the landing as smooth as possible.

His thesis can be summarized as follows:

Global Power Shift: Global economic and military power has decisively shifted from the West (US/Europe) to Asia (China). The US is seen as an empire in decline, facing an insurmountable sovereign debt crisis.

China's Dominance: Modern China is an unparalleled manufacturing and military superpower that can out-produce any rival, making a conventional war over a place like Taiwan unwinnable for the US.

The Fall of the Dollar: The US business model of global "dollar hegemony" is collapsing as it retreats from its global empire. This shrinking tax base for the dollar will lead to hyperinflation and a severe drop in American living standards.

The Internet as the New Balancing Force: After the fall of the dollar-based system, the intangible "free Internet" will be the next major civilizational force. It can generate universal ideas and enable the creation of new, voluntary societies ("network states").

Ideas Over Force: While China dominates physically, it is an "idea importer." The Internet can balance China not through force, but by creating attractive, alternative societal models that people, including Chinese nationals, may voluntarily choose, creating a new form of ideological balance of power.

If his theories are correct, how can we as individuals best position ourselves for what is coming, especially in ways that will still benefit us if the theories don't play out as he predicts?
Who?mikejones!
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Get married, have kids, go to work. Same as usual for individuals
bonfarr
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He sounds FOS to me and I disagree on his take on China.
HumpitPuryear
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China is not going to allow ideas over force within its borders. The average Chinese citizen is as locked down as the average East German during the Cold War. And probably more so because of how completely the CCP has implemented surveillance and it is tightening its grip not relaxing it.
YouBet
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Certainly elements of truth in what he says but he's ignoring China's own financial crisis which is worse than ours.

Also, a country that can only project power over land isn't an unparalleled military superpower. We aren't going to beat them in China, but we can cut them off from the imports they need to power and feed their country.

He's ignoring obvious deficiencies that China has.
YouBet
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I also think he's overestimating the internet leading to "network states". You can't live physically on the internet. You can ****post all day long but it's not going to change your physical reality.
BQ_90
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Chyna is arshol
Hank the Grifter
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I think it's incredibly tacky for him to use Flight 93 as an analogy/metaphor for his political theory.
Max Stonetrail
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TDS manifests itself in many delusional ways.

No way the US retreats to a regional power. I guess if we had another limp wristed leader like Obama it could appear we were heading that direction, but there is just too much desire and drive in enough people in the US to let that hold us back that much.

And Flight 93 analogy is inaccurate and tacky.
HollywoodBQ
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Lost me at Balaji Srinivasan

What's the Flight 93 analogy?

We can fight back but we're still going to die?
lb3
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HumpitPuryear said:

China is not going to allow ideas over force within its borders. The average Chinese citizen is as locked down as the average East German during the Cold War. And probably more so because of how completely the CCP has implemented surveillance and it is tightening its grip not relaxing it.
This.
doubledog
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Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

Balaji Srinivasan co-founded 23andMe and was the CTO of Coinbase. His book The Network State is on my to-read list.

He calls the current US administration the Flight 93 administration because of his belief that a retreat by the US from a global empire to a regional power in a multi-polar world in inevitable. In other words, the plane is going down and they are trying to make the landing as smooth as possible.



With Global power comes Global responsibilities. For the US it is that we must police the world and that sucks.
Captain Pablo
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"China's Dominance: Modern China is an unparalleled manufacturing and military superpower that can out-produce any rival, making a conventional war over a place like Taiwan unwinnable for the US."

this

China is set to dominate the world

The west is dying

It was a good run

PS - in before the "China is collapsing" F16 nonsense
Heineken-Ashi
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China makes our money printer look like the original printing press. There is no world where they are or will be financially stable.
TheCurl84
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Yeah OP don't waste your time on that crap.
titan
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Hank the Grifter said:

I think it's incredibly tacky for him to use Flight 93 as an analogy/metaphor for his political theory.

Its so forced and stupid, it undermines much of the layed out theory. It is so silly an analogy it makes it look like agit-prop. Its really off-putting simplistic.

This part MAY be true,

Quote:

He calls the current US administration the Flight 93 administration because of his belief that a retreat by the US from a global empire to a regional power in a multi-polar world in inevitable. In other words, the plane is going down and they are trying to make the landing as smooth as possible.

BUT only in the sense of it may be the near future truth for EVERYBODY. In other words, multi-polar world literally. Russia regional, China regional, etc. No pre-imminent power able to decide course of things over others. I could just see that happening if our ability to order and guard world trade fades too much.


His thesis can be summarized as follows:

Quote:

Global Power Shift: Global economic and military power has decisively shifted from the West (US/Europe) to Asia (China). The US is seen as an empire in decline, facing an insurmountable sovereign debt crisis.



Blunt force can overcome debt crisis. It may not be fair or sporting or conservative but it does work if you have sufficient power. That is not why we were in decline, it was Leftism, Postmodernism, or hell, even as that other thread says, "Feminization."

And no, it has not shifted decisively to China. The comparison one poster said above about East Germany has some truth to it. If you stifle individual thought to much you reach a kind of grand stability but not innovation --that even happened to dynastic China previously.

Quote:

China's Dominance: Modern China is an unparalleled manufacturing and military superpower that can out-produce any rival, making a conventional war over a place like Taiwan unwinnable for the US.



Again, Taiwan's importance is a certain window--- if we have rulers that bluntly overcome the issue that allowed that production to not be here (which is being fixed) that will matter less. Also as far as Asia area, don't discount the reborn Imperial Japan if they knit together an Asian coalition counter. They may rapidly create a technological gap lead over China's that produces unforeseen advantages.

So we go back to the first quote. There may be truth that the near future may be a multi-polar world, but if so, in the sense of pre-World War I with no off-the-dial preiminent power, and everyone somewhat competing to various degrees. Or it may be like Classical period where there was a reduced only Eastern Rome jockeying with Persia, but in uneasy balance after the Pax Roman and loss of the West.

OR, if you have a continued present course victory in 2028, you are probably looking at more a Later Roman revival and America having another run at considerable power, but in its hemisphere mostly. But that will also be true of Russia and China.

Fireman
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Bitcoin is your parachute for the hyperinflation. I see folks on the trading threads talking about selling all their holdings and going to cash/dollars because they are worried about a market crash, and I cringe. Buy real estate, gold or something, but don't be in dollars.
AgGrad99
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Quote:

China's Dominance: Modern China is an unparalleled manufacturing and military superpower that can out-produce any rival, making a conventional war over a place like Taiwan unwinnable for the US.


MouthBQ98
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China is in NO WAY currently competitive with our military power and does not look to be soon.

They have some critical strategic weaknesses:

1. Insufficient domestic food production and fossil fuels for their population and industrial needs.

2. One coastline that is entirely hemmed in by the USA and American Allies or nations with more friendliness towards the USA than China due to recent regional aggression by China.

3. China's northern border is Siberian Russia and desert and open plains. Their Southern and Westenn borders are the world's roughest tallest mountain ranges, and the nations they have fought with and compete with in trade like Myanmar and Vietnam. They are geographically isolated to a significant degree if their coastline can be blockaided. The USA has a navy that can do that.

4. China has a very big production advantage in some areas but the USA still has considerable capacity, plenty of resources, and two coastlines giving access to the entire world fairly easily.

In the end, any shooting war would be very harmful to both parties so any actual conflict will be a cold one of economic and diplomatic struggle, and espionage.
cecil77
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The book was written in 2022.

Trump.

Needs to write a new book.

IMO we've reach the end of the Fourth Turning and the next First Turning is imminent, maybe 2-3 years.
titan
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cecil77 said:

The book was written in 2022.

Trump.

Needs to write a new book.

IMO we've reach the end of the Fourth Turning and the next First Turning is imminent, maybe 2-3 years.

OH! That makes a huge difference. So "Flight 93" and these projection are some kind of prediction author was making about continued Bidenian Democrat ruleof the time. That trajectory.

So he didn't even account for a full bore revival attempt and about-face.

That changes a great deal, but on the post above since really was only going with the multi-polar take, I don't have to change much. That kind of world could still result from what seeing -- in fact, may be more likely.
Thunderstruck xx
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Sounds like some indian dude who hates America and has TDS's wet dream.
dmart90
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About his "school" :
Quote:

The Network School, a school for people interested in developing "network nations" and "decentralized countries." Located in Forest City, Johor, Malaysia, the school had an initial enrollment of 150. Students are required to have an admiration of "Western values," to believe Bitcoin is the successor to the US Federal Reserve, and to trust AI over human courts and judges.

Western values? Sure.
Bitcoin succeeding the US Federal Reserve? Bull*****
Trust AI over human judges and courts? F*** that noise.
LOYAL AG
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Captain Pablo said:

"China's Dominance: Modern China is an unparalleled manufacturing and military superpower that can out-produce any rival, making a conventional war over a place like Taiwan unwinnable for the US."

this

China is set to dominate the world

The west is dying

It was a good run

PS - in before the "China is collapsing" F16 nonsense


Two problems here.

1. A blockade ends China. All we have to do is sit out of reach of their navy and sink every inbound oil tanker.

2. There's a reason they were never a power before globalization. They can't do this on their own. They are unquestionably the biggest beneficiary of globalization and as it unwinds they will fall the hardest. They aren't capable of running the world. They are entirely dependent on global trade and wholly incapable of doing that on their own. There isn't a world where global trade exists without the US Navy which means there isn't a world where China dominates the global economy. It isn't possible.
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