ntxVol said:

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This is a bunch of pie in the sky BS.

1) Where's the money come from to build all these robots?

2) Who's going fix them when they break? Another robot?

Lol, come on folks. There's never going to be any sort of highly automated manufacturing utopia. Don't be dumb, robots are EXPENSIVE. Human labor will always be cheaper, way way cheaper.

UBI is just another way to remove people from the workforce and drive up labor costs, which eventually brings people back into the workforce. That has to be the stupidest idea of all.

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I'm in MFG and we're converting lines to automated, robot-heavy, lines. We have 2 and 5 year plans. The plans require fewer and fewer laborers, in general. Buuuuuuuut, they're known to be cheapskates and will probably get the lowest-cost/highest-downtime equipment.

ntxVol said:

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This is a bunch of pie in the sky BS.

1) Where's the money come from to build all these robots?

2) Who's going fix them when they break? Another robot?

Lol, come on folks. There's never going to be any sort of highly automated manufacturing utopia. Don't be dumb, robots are EXPENSIVE. Human labor will always be cheaper, way way cheaper.

UBI is just another way to remove people from the workforce and drive up labor costs, which eventually brings people back into the workforce. That has to be the stupidest idea of all.

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Naive.

I really need to learn how to maintain and fix robots.

ntxVol said:

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This is a bunch of pie in the sky BS.

1) Where's the money come from to build all these robots?

2) Who's going fix them when they break? Another robot?

Lol, come on folks. There's never going to be any sort of highly automated manufacturing utopia. Don't be dumb, robots are EXPENSIVE. Human labor will always be cheaper, way way cheaper.

UBI is just another way to remove people from the workforce and drive up labor costs, which eventually brings people back into the workforce. That has to be the stupidest idea of all.

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Feel like I'm talking to myself some days.

Chinese labor is much cheaper than American labor. Yet the Chinese are racing to fully automate much of their manufacturing.

Robots will do it cheaper than humans. Robots do manufacturing better than humans. Robots will build manufacturing robots - compounding their advantages.

And, AI can generally easily control robots for manufacturing.

I am not sure why you think this is "pie in the sky"? It is already happening. What would it take to convince you?

TexAgs91 said:

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Democrats demand 'robot tax' as AI reportedly threatens to replace 100M US jobs

The government has to keep raking in the money...

Dems want companies to pay a levy for each human position replaced by machines, tech or algorithms.

Was there a tax on lightbulb and power companies when the lightbulb was invented and put all the candlestick makers out of business?

Who will pay all the human calculators? Typewriter manufacturers? Elevator lift operators? The Kodak employees? The Blockbuster Video employees? The phonebooth manufacturers?

Where did the government get its income from with each industry that vanished in the 19th and 20th centuries?

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One thing to keep in mind on this. The Dem staffers who wrote the report generated these results by asking AI to predict. Literally, Garbage In Garbage Out. :-)

Will there be job losses, yes!

But this report simply churns the water. Or is it chums the water?

BigRobSA said:

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ntxVol said:

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This is a bunch of pie in the sky BS.

1) Where's the money come from to build all these robots?

2) Who's going fix them when they break? Another robot?

Lol, come on folks. There's never going to be any sort of highly automated manufacturing utopia. Don't be dumb, robots are EXPENSIVE. Human labor will always be cheaper, way way cheaper.

UBI is just another way to remove people from the workforce and drive up labor costs, which eventually brings people back into the workforce. That has to be the stupidest idea of all.

---

I'm in MFG and we're converting lines to automated, robot-heavy, lines. We have 2 and 5 year plans. The plans require fewer and fewer laborers, in general. Buuuuuuuut, they're known to be cheapskates and will probably get the lowest-cost/highest-downtime equipment.

---

How are they justifying the cost? Lower labor cost? Doubtful, more likely improved quality or yield resulting in higher throughput. Still need skilled workers to maintain it. Less unskilled labor in exchange for more skilled. Cost per unit goes down with increased throughput but overall labor costs probably aren't much different.

I've NEVER seen automation take place to reduce labor cost because it's never worked that way... ever.

Over_ed said:

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ntxVol said:

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This is a bunch of pie in the sky BS.

1) Where's the money come from to build all these robots?

2) Who's going fix them when they break? Another robot?

Lol, come on folks. There's never going to be any sort of highly automated manufacturing utopia. Don't be dumb, robots are EXPENSIVE. Human labor will always be cheaper, way way cheaper.

UBI is just another way to remove people from the workforce and drive up labor costs, which eventually brings people back into the workforce. That has to be the stupidest idea of all.

---

Feel like I'm talking to myself some days.

Chinese labor is much cheaper than American labor. Yet the Chinese are racing to fully automate much of their manufacturing.

Robots will do it cheaper than humans. Robots do manufacturing better than humans. Robots will build manufacturing robots - compounding their advantages.

And, AI can generally easily control robots for manufacturing.

I am not sure why you think this is "pie in the sky"? It is already happening. What would it take to convince you?

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Give me one example of adding robot automation to reduce labor cost. Who specifically is doing this right now?

Are there no companies that have automated processes in your reality? Why do you suppose they automated those processes? If you are increasing throughput by automation you are reducing the labor cost per product. That is a reduction in labor costs.

Count the number of robots. Count the number of people.



Estimates for a fully manufactured humanoid robot at scale is <$30,000 in material and manufacturing. Works 20 hours a day, 365 days a year, equivalent to 3 human workers with more precision when fully trained. That worker costs ~$75,000 per employee after accounting for non-wage costs.

This week, Figure has passed 5 months running on the BMW X3 body shop production line

We have been running 10 hours per day, every single day of production!

It is believed that Figure and BMW are the first in the world to do this with humanoid robots pic.twitter.com/zAXCbApXBJ

— Brett Adcock (@adcock_brett) October 6, 2025

hph6203 said:

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Are there no companies that have automated processes in your reality? Why do you suppose they automated those processes? If you are increasing throughput by automation you are reducing the labor cost per product. That is a reduction in labor costs.

Count the number of robots. Count the number of people.

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Labor cost has never been the primary driving force behind automation. It is only a secondary consideration.

Facility cost: How can I produce more product without the need to expand or build more facilities which need to be powered/heated/cooled... etc.

Equipment cost: How can I maximize the efficiency of the equipment i already have. Reduces the need to expand facilities.

Waste: How can I reduce waste of my raw material inputs. Reduce the amount of re-work or increase first pass yield.

Those have always been the primary driving factors for automation. What has suddenly changed to make labor cost the primary factor? I have never seen labor cost used to justify automating anything because it's so far down the list of other costs, it usually not even a consideration.

And what happened to the labor? It doesn't have to be the primary driver for labor to suffer.

You're also operating under the assumption that the robot automation is persistently more expensive than the human labor it replaces, which is not accurate. Automation robots have been falling in price over the years, human labor has been rising in price over the years. There is an intersection point where the human labor, especially in this country, exceeds the cost of the robot.

There is also an intersection point where the cost of logistics of shipping raw materials to a foreign nation to be worked into finished goods and shipped to their point of consumption will exceed the cost of domestic automated manufacture.

BTKAG97 said:

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I really need to learn how to maintain and fix robots.

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Anakin Skywalker had the same thought and look how that ended up.

Stick to moisture vaporators, please.

hph6203 said:

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And what happened to the labor? It doesn't have to be the primary driver for labor to suffer.

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Labor costs shifted from the $15hr production worker to $60hr maintenance techs. Yes, fewer employees but payroll doesn't change much. Your going to need a machine shop on-site for tooling changes. You probably already have this but it will need to be expanded. Your going to need highly skilled process engineers to get the most out of your very expensive automation. Tooling changes will require more time and cost more than in the past as well.

Even in your scenario the quantity of workers goes down, which is the point of discussion. I think you're actually understimating what's coming. They are not industrial robots that are manually automated by experts to automate manufacture. They are highly adaptable robots that can both do the production job and the maintenance job and rapidly switch between the two.

hph6203 said:

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Even in your scenario the quantity of workers goes down, which is the point of discussion. I think you're actually understimating what's coming. They are not industrial robots that are manually automated by experts to automate manufacture. They are highly adaptable robots that can both do the production job and the maintenance job and rapidly switch between the two.

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What specifically is the production job the "highly adaptable" robots will doing? The few production workers you see in automated manufacturing facilities are not dummies. How is this next generation of robots going to be different? Smarter? Lol, that equates to dangerous if you know anything about automation.

hph6203 said:

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And what happened to the labor? It doesn't have to be the primary driver for labor to suffer.

You're also operating under the assumption that the robot automation is persistently more expensive than the human labor it replaces, which is not accurate. Automation robots have been falling in price over the years, human labor has been rising in price over the years. There is an intersection point where the human labor, especially in this country, exceeds the cost of the robot.

There is also an intersection point where the cost of logistics of shipping raw materials to a foreign nation to be worked into finished goods and shipped to their point of consumption will exceed the cost of domestic automated manufacture.

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Then you should have no problem providing an example of a company automating something specifically to reduce labor cost.

Doesn't matter why the automation gets done. The concern is idle individuals with no opportunity to earn. If I deploy 100,000 humanoid robots, because it increases the operation time of a factory/increases output over the human labor while the cost per factory may not go down, the cost per unit does and the total payment for labor falls.

hph6203 said:

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Doesn't matter why the automation gets done. The concern is idle individuals with no opportunity to earn. If I deploy 100,000 humanoid robots, because it increases the operation time of a factory/increases output over the human labor while the cost per factory may not go down, the cost per unit does and the total payment for labor falls.

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So, on a higher level. Where are the consumers for these products going to come from? With a smaller workforce, there are fewer consumers. Couple that with a declining population, it would seem that a high level of automation across every industry is not possible.

ntxVol said:

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hph6203 said:

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And what happened to the labor? It doesn't have to be the primary driver for labor to suffer.

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Labor costs shifted from the $15hr production worker to $60hr maintenance techs. Yes, fewer employees but payroll doesn't change much. Your going to need a machine shop on-site for tooling changes. You probably already have this but it will need to be expanded. Your going to need highly skilled process engineers to get the most out of your very expensive automation. Tooling changes will require more time and cost more than in the past as well.

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You ask for examples, then refute them with no idea of what is going on. Man, work with us here.

Here is a "effin" restaurant in China that brought in a dozen robots to replace a dozen workers. These robots cost $6000. Note I am talking about the working restaurant further in Kunshan, not the "must see" one. I am choosing this example as it is low value work, you are not replacing expensive trained workers.

https://insigniam.com/innovation-at-work-china-invests-heavily-in-robotics/

Humanoid are usually much more expensive, but even their costs are coming down. Morgan Stanley Research estimates the Bill of Materials for Chinese humanoid robots are ~ 1/3 of US. Largely because they are using robots to build robots. (they say $20k for humanoid robot, which is what Musk wants to sell them for.

warning loooooong pdf

https://advisor.morganstanley.com/john.howard/documents/field/j/jo/john-howard/The_Humanoid_100_-_Mapping_the_Humanoid_Robot_Value_Chain.pdf

It's a fair question, which is why I said earlier in the thread that they shouldn't be taxing robots until the problem actually arises. I personally don't buy the doomsday scenario, but I do believe manufacturing/services are going to trend towards job loss/automation/localized production to the point of consumption.

It's possible it's massively deflationary, doesn't create replacement jobs, reduces hours worked and people can consume without spending 40 hours a week working. It's possible that there's enough ramp in production with unresolvable automation that needs human labor and demand for human labor skyrockets.

There are going to be lots more robots though.

And here is one I've already posted, showing China employing (currently) >2M industrial robots.

They could be using them to hold clothes, I guess? Like Charles Barkley's exercise machines?

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3327793/chinas-population-falls-300000-strong-robot-army-keeps-factories-humming

Yep.

Ok, I can concede China's situation is unique. They have relied solely on labor and are now getting squeezed. This is part of a normal evolution that the industrialized world has already gone through.

This will have the added side effect of quality improvements as well. Soon, the term "cheap Chinese products" won't be synonymous with low quality.

ntxVol said:

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hph6203 said:

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Are there no companies that have automated processes in your reality? Why do you suppose they automated those processes? If you are increasing throughput by automation you are reducing the labor cost per product. That is a reduction in labor costs.

Count the number of robots. Count the number of people.

---

Labor cost has never been the primary driving force behind automation. It is only a secondary consideration.

Facility cost: How can I produce more product without the need to expand or build more facilities which need to be powered/heated/cooled... etc.

Equipment cost: How can I maximize the efficiency of the equipment i already have. Reduces the need to expand facilities.

Waste: How can I reduce waste of my raw material inputs. Reduce the amount of re-work or increase first pass yield.

Those have always been the primary driving factors for automation. What has suddenly changed to make labor cost the primary factor? I have never seen labor cost used to justify automating anything because it's so far down the list of other costs, it usually not even a consideration.

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When labor becomes your highest cost...it tends to become a priority.

When labor becomes unionized and is a threat to your bottom line...it tends to become a priority.

When robots/automation is cheaper than labor...it tends to become a priority.


When all 3 of those happen at once? I think you see the writing on the wall here.

BTKAG97 said:

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I really need to learn how to maintain and fix robots.

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Robots can do that

About 15 years ago I was at a meeting, and one of the speakers showed a video from inside a Ford factory in Brazil. There were no people. It was one robot after another assembling cars all the way down the line. Someone asked why they couldn't do that in the US, and the presenter laughed and said the labor unions would never allow it.

ntxVol said:

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Ok, I can concede China's situation is unique. They have relied solely on labor and are now getting squeezed. This is part of a normal evolution that the industrialized world has already gone through.

This will have the added side effect of quality improvements as well. Soon, the term "cheap Chinese products" won't be synonymous with low quality.

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China already is the "cheapest" as in the lowest price mfg around.

Now their costs will go lower and their quality will be higher. I emphasize higher, because in many areas it was already higher than the US.

If they can replace a worker with a robot and lower costs further, what do American, Canadian, EU... have to do to stay competitive?

One answer is tariffs, but let's say a tariff adds 50% to the cost of a product. So, instead of paying a dollar, US consumer pays $1.50. How much additional costs should american households have to bear? How much can they bear?

Alternatively, US mfgs can add many robots. And, robots making robots which is really what will lower costs.

But, we will lose jobs. Almost certainly net jobs (after we take into accoun maintaing robots etc. new jobs.)

It is a complicated scenario, bu again, exactly what happened during Industrialization. It ain't gonna be great, at least during the transition. Maybe we do become a world of plenty? Probably not.

Rather than receive UBI, we're going to have robots at home. Just like I can buy used Amazon servers on E-Bay, we'll be able to buy used humanoid robots. There will be jailbreaks that allow us to have them mow the lawn, do laundry, etc.

Y'all are worried about the robots taking jobs? How about the impending doom that the sex robots will bring? Blow jobs every night without someone telling you to take the trash out?

I kid I kid......but seriously, someone think of the sex robots.

And just so I don't completely add nothing to the convo here. Maybe my entire knowledge of automation is wrong, but I would think robots if done correctly would be way cheaper than human labor. Yeah I guess they can break and need repair, but they can also work longer shifts and don't need health insurance, vacation days, sick days, etc.

Someone above mentioned car manufacturing plants, I think you all would be surprised at how much automation has gone into these plants already, and they aren't doing it because it is more expensive.

I would guess that it is cost prohibitive right now (As most new tech usually is), but that once it gets cheaper you will see a lot of companies try to put these robots in wherever they can.

Hell McDonald's is trying to use kiosks instead of people to take orders, pretty sure they have robots in the back preparing the food (or maybe just the fries?), banks have kiosks for everyone to make deposits/withdrawals. Gotta believe these are all trying to get their labor costs down.

TexAgs91 said:

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BTKAG97 said:

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I really need to learn how to maintain and fix robots.

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Robots can do that

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No doubt.

Yeah the idea of a human robot doing everything is probably not a realistic issue anytime soon.

It's the continuation of automating this tool or that tool.

Although it makes me wonder if the ultimate tool will eventually be a humanoid robot since it could do all the different things...

The worst it's going to be.

lb3 said:

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Rather than receive UBI, we're going to have robots at home. Just like I can buy used Amazon servers on E-Bay, we'll be able to buy used humanoid robots. There will be jailbreaks that allow us to have them mow the lawn, do laundry, etc.

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This already exists. I don't know how well they work but they exist.

We've had robot vacuum cleaners for years now that work pretty well.

YouBet said:

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lb3 said:

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Rather than receive UBI, we're going to have robots at home. Just like I can buy used Amazon servers on E-Bay, we'll be able to buy used humanoid robots. There will be jailbreaks that allow us to have them mow the lawn, do laundry, etc.

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This already exists. I don't know how well they work but they exist.

We've had robot vacuum cleaners for years now that work pretty well.

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My robot vacuum cleaner won't pick my shoes up off the floor or untangle itself when it sucks in a shoe lace. I still have to have a wife for that and that puts half my **** at risk.