Transcript from interview - this info is free on YouTube.
What Should Folks Do If/When We Hit $100 Silver and $5,000 Gold: Sell, Buy More, or Continue Holding?
Andy Schectman argues that reaching these round-number milestones shouldn't prompt selling, as gold and silver have historically been denied true price discovery due to market manipulation. He points to unprecedented delivery volumes on the Comexover 110 million ounces of silver in the last 40 daysas evidence of sustained demand from sophisticated, well-funded entities like central banks and sovereign nations. These deliveries outpace anything seen before, even surpassing the tech boom's impact on stocks, and suggest the metals are repricing to reflect their real value amid global distrust in fiat systems.
He views short-term corrections as normal and even beneficial, driven by leverage and positioning rather than surplus supply. Schectman stresses that the real risk isn't a price drop but future scarcity, where premiums could skyrocket and physical metal becomes hard to obtain. He promises to signal when it's time to exit but insists we're far from that point, with indicators like high lease rates and Shanghai premiums signaling market tightness.
Overall, he advocates balancing short-term caution with long-term conviction, noting that attempts to suppress priceslike margin hikeshave failed against cash-rich buyers. This shift from past cycles, where speculation was easily quashed, points to a prolonged uptrend.
At Current Delivery Rates, Is There a Timeline for Draining Exchanges Like the LBMA or Comex?
At current flows, Schectman warns that exchanges could face significant strain, potentially draining within months if trends persist. He cites expert David Jensen's analysis of the LBMA, which holds 700-800 million ounces, much of it tied to ETFs and not for sale, leaving a disputed 140 million-ounce float against 2 billion ounces of paper contracts. Comex has seen record deliveries68 million ounces in December alonesuggesting sovereign players are "papercutting" the West to death by quietly accumulating without blowing up the system.
He attributes delays to a lack of instant gratification mindset; nations avoid aggressive buying to prevent panics, but U.S. actions like tariffs (framed as reshoring) aim to counter this. Past events, like Bear Stearns' collapse from silver shorts, illustrate the risksif a failure to deliver occurs, it could trigger contagion across financial markets.
Schectman ties this to historical suppression for military and economic reasons, like Gibson's paradox, but notes trust erosion post-Russia sanctions accelerates the drain. He urges watching deliveries as the key indicator, predicting chaos if unaddressed.
How Does The Global Return To Mercantilism Impact Metal Scarcity?
Schectman agrees we're shifting from globalization to mercantilism, where nations prioritize self-interest over cooperation, scrambling for strategic metals like silver. He credits analysts like Michael Every for foreseeing this return to historical norms, where countries like China never fully abandoned mercantilism and now exploit Western openness. This "me first" mindset drives hoarding, with sovereigns building reserves amid eroding trust in U.S. Treasuries and weaponized dollars.
He connects this to dual trends: true price discovery after suppression, and increasing scarcity as silver miningmostly a byproduct of other metalscan't ramp up quickly. Nations compete aggressively, using tools like BRICS networks for local currency trades backed by gold, bypassing SWIFT. The U.S., under Trump, is responding by reshoring and flipping bank positions from short to long, exposing European shorts.
This geopolitical Game of Thrones, as Schectman calls it, amplifies scarcity, potentially pushing prices far higher. He sees it as essential for national security, urging the U.S. to prioritize manufacturing and borders to avoid insolvency.
Adam also has an interesting interview out with Rick Rule
regarding oil & gas stocks.
