core PCE rises to 2.9%

8,022 Views | 125 Replies | Last: 6 mo ago by TTUArmy
flown-the-coop
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Learn to code.

And why do they not have jobs anymore? Can they not go work somewhere else? Historic low unemployment is why Powell and others say no rate cuts.

And by the way, 300 jobs v national security is absolutely America First.
No Spin Ag
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J. Walter Weatherman said:

flown-the-coop said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:


Sure, as those would be effective conservative policies. Almost like the policy itself is important and whether or not other countries with economies a fraction of the size of ours have tariffs is completely irrelevant to this discussion.

America First is the most conservative of all conservative policies.

Trump is using tariffs to make America First.


Not sure the 300 factory workers who don't have jobs anymore thanks to tariffs are super worried about whatever "America First" benefits we are getting from them.

The thing most people, especially the ones on the left, don't get about Trump's fiscal/DOGE/etc. policies/actions, is that they help and harm people who are on the left AND the right.

What I hope is that when all the dust settles, and everyone who's been negatively affected by his policies, they will be able to find new sources of income, and the country as a whole will be not only better but on a lasting trajectory.

If not, then this will all have been done in vain.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
Max Stonetrail
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Crap. I agree with No Spin.

It's the long game.

I lost my cushy job when the IT market crashed after the Y2K boom and am not without sympathy for job losses, but they happen every day. People with any kind of mild work ethic are much more resilient than they are given credit for.
KerrAg76
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Total BS lies. JD reduced 8% of their workforce in Bidens last 2 years. This is just continuation of their problems. This is not tariff CAUSED.
J. Walter Weatherman
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flown-the-coop said:

Learn to code.


Spoken like a true big government liberal.

Quote:



And why do they not have jobs anymore? Can they not go work somewhere else? Historic low unemployment is why Powell and others say no rate cuts.




They lost their current jobs because of Trump's tariffs. They will find find another one, but it's a pretty black and white cause/effect.

Quote:


And by the way, 300 jobs v national security is absolutely America First.


That's one perspective. My point was that the people who are actually impacted by these corporate tax increases and are just trying to keep food on the table aren't going to care about whatever vague "America First/National Security" benefits we are getting. You may not care about them and think they just need to suck it up, but that doesn't change the facts.
J. Walter Weatherman
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It's in their earnings report. You can choose to believe them or not. They're not just going to eat $600MM in new costs.
J. Walter Weatherman
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No Spin Ag said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:

flown-the-coop said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:


Sure, as those would be effective conservative policies. Almost like the policy itself is important and whether or not other countries with economies a fraction of the size of ours have tariffs is completely irrelevant to this discussion.

America First is the most conservative of all conservative policies.

Trump is using tariffs to make America First.


Not sure the 300 factory workers who don't have jobs anymore thanks to tariffs are super worried about whatever "America First" benefits we are getting from them.

The thing most people, especially the ones on the left, don't get about Trump's fiscal/DOGE/etc. policies/actions, is that they help and harm people who are on the left AND the right.

What I hope is that when all the dust settles, and everyone who's been negatively affected by his policies, they will be able to find new sources of income, and the country as a whole will be not only better but on a lasting trajectory.

If not, then this will all have been done in vain.


100% agreed. People are resilient and most will figure it out. Whether they blame him/republicans for the negative impacts be a large factor in 2026 and 2028, and ironically if the democrats take back over most of these likely go away anyways.
flown-the-coop
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J. Walter Weatherman said:


That's one perspective. My point was that the people who are actually impacted by these corporate tax increases and are just trying to keep food on the table aren't going to care about whatever vague "America First/National Security" benefits we are getting. You may not care about them and think they just need to suck it up, but that doesn't change the facts.

Pretty funny you resort to name calling me a lib. You got me.

You may be amazed that there are principled people out there that can understand that they suffered a personal consequence as a result of a policy they may actually support or they acknowledge is for the greater good.

You have zero knowledge as to how those who may have lost their jobs feel. BTW - as mentioned, John Deere has a large AI focus and I suspect they have HIRED as much if not more than they have fired. BTW - John Deere is exactly flat since liberation day to about 5 minutes ago. How do I know, I have 400 shares. How much you holding of Deere?

Put some skin in the game and we can discuss company fundamentals and outlook.
Logos Stick
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KerrAg76 said:

Total BS lies. JD reduced 8% of their workforce in Bidens last 2 years. This is just continuation of their problems. This is not tariff CAUSED.


Non sequitur. Just because it was not the cause before does not mean it's not a cause or the cause now. They literally took a charge in their income statement. Did they commit fraud:

Quote:

John Deere reported a $200 million pretax charge-off due to tariffs in Q3 2025, contributing to a year-to-date tariff expense of approximately $300 million.

BigRobSA
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Kansas Kid said:

flown-the-coop said:

So Caterpillar exposed itself to this by shifting its sourcing of materials, particularly steel and aluminum, and I am supposed to think this is bad?

That Caterpillar may have to cut come margins in order to source domestically, which is the point - particularly of the Section 232 tariffs, and this is... bad?

Seems to me like the Caterpillar article is a prime example of America winning here.

Even if they source in the US, they pay higher prices. Us prodcuers increase their price to match the import alternatives. Put simply, if you were the CEO of Cleveland Cliffs and the import price with tariffs goes from $4000 to $5000 after a 25% tariff increase, why wouldn't you increase your price from $4000 to just under $5000 (or up to $5000).

They source from all over, and have made changes to work with this tariff debacle, but because the govt has made it so hard to manufacture here, they're not able to source locally for most things.

Tariffs are idiotic. We need to do things to bring mfg, especially tech, pharma and a few other more important things, back to the US. Tariffs don't do that.
flown-the-coop
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J. Walter Weatherman said:

It's in their earnings report. You can choose to believe them or not. They're not just going to eat $600MM in new costs.

Its not nothing to sneeze at, but Deere is a pretty solid company and that $600 million would be around 10% of net income. In other words, they have some margin to play with and the wood chippers are not falling from the sky to eat everyone because of tariffs.

And most all analysts list the overall ag market as the driver of a negative outlook with tariffs mentioned either secondary or as an "and also".
Sims
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Logos Stick said:

KerrAg76 said:

Total BS lies. JD reduced 8% of their workforce in Bidens last 2 years. This is just continuation of their problems. This is not tariff CAUSED.


Non sequitur. Just because it was not the cause before does not mean it's not a cause or the cause now. They literally took a charge in their income statement. Did they commit fraud:

Quote:

John Deere reported a $200 million pretax charge-off due to tariffs in Q3 2025, contributing to a year-to-date tariff expense of approximately $300 million.



From an accounting standpoint...the why matters in this case.

If they have a long term supply contract at a fixed cost and now their import prices have increased - that would require a tariff related charge off.

If they overseas inventory that will at some point be imported to the US to supply domestic production - that would require a tariff related charge off.

If they have overseas production to support domestic sales, they may have an impairment charge to the value of the asset because of the economic value change that tariffs introduce - that would require a tariff related charge off.

At the end of the day, it could just be a write down reconcilation between GAAP and IFRS.
Ragoo
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I don't realize f16 housed so many poors.
samurai_science
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Ragoo said:

I don't realize f16 housed so many poors.

J. Walter Weatherman
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flown-the-coop said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:


That's one perspective. My point was that the people who are actually impacted by these corporate tax increases and are just trying to keep food on the table aren't going to care about whatever vague "America First/National Security" benefits we are getting. You may not care about them and think they just need to suck it up, but that doesn't change the facts.

Pretty funny you resort to name calling me a lib. You got me.

You may be amazed that there are principled people out there that can understand that they suffered a personal consequence as a result of a policy they may actually support or they acknowledge is for the greater good.

You have zero knowledge as to how those who may have lost their jobs feel. BTW - as mentioned, John Deere has a large AI focus and I suspect they have HIRED as much if not more than they have fired. BTW - John Deere is exactly flat since liberation day to about 5 minutes ago. How do I know, I have 400 shares. How much you holding of Deere?

Put some skin in the game and we can discuss company fundamentals and outlook.


As do you. We're obviously both assuming, but common sense would dictate that if someone is now being forced to take unemployment for a few months because of tariffs, they are more likely to be not happy about that than say "welp not sure where my next paycheck is going to come from but hey at least we stuck it to China/some nebulous America First benefit."

Or, to put it more clearly - they'd rather have just kept their job. In some ways it mirrors Covid, where a bunch of bureaucrats who never had to think about if they were going to get paid making absurd decisions that impacted tens of millions of people, without having to face any consequences of those decisions.

Nothing wrong with having the opinion that whatever real life, immediate pain people experience directly because of an arguably (in my opinion) unnecessary policy, is worth whatever benefit actually comes from this - I disagree but everyone's entitled to their own opinion. What doesn't make sense is to just ignore it as if people losing their jobs is no big deal, "learn to code", etc. YMMV.
Ragoo
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samurai_science said:

Ragoo said:

I don't realize f16 housed so many poors.


ha! Guess I should proof my posts before calling out the board for *****ing about sub 3 price index. If this board spent as much time invested into actually making more money you wouldn't need to whine about a little bit of inflation.
samurai_science
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Ragoo said:

samurai_science said:

Ragoo said:

I don't realize f16 housed so many poors.



ha! Guess I should proof my posts before calling out the board for *****ing about sub 3 price index. If this board spent as much time invested into actually making more money you wouldn't need to whine about a little bit of inflation.

You can post on a board and make money. Well maybe not you, but others can. Ironic, that you are also on F16 and whining about others whining. Maybe if you spent less time whining about F16 you would have time to proofread.
Apollo79
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Ragoo said:

samurai_science said:

Ragoo said:

I don't realize f16 housed so many poors.



ha! Guess I should proof my posts before calling out the board for *****ing about sub 3 price index. If this board spent as much time invested into actually making more money you wouldn't need to whine about a little bit of inflation.

its because Trump is in office orange man bad 24 7 around here.
Deputy Travis Junior
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flown-the-coop said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:


Sure, as those would be effective conservative policies. Almost like the policy itself is important and whether or not other countries with economies a fraction of the size of ours have tariffs is completely irrelevant to this discussion.

America First is the most conservative of all conservative policies.

Trump is using tariffs to make America First.


America first should make the country better long term. Instituting tariffs that let fat, complacent companies continue to be fat and complacent while China is racing ahead in many areas (cars, energy, batteries) is not making us better long term. If you don't believe me, read the CEO of ford's comments on Chinese cars and how they're better than what we're building.

To be fair, I think Trump is dropping barriers in AI and crypto, but some of the manufacturing policies and tariffs are nuts. At this point, China is better at high tech manufacturing than we are and it's not that close. We should be inviting those companies here so that we can learn their techniques, not erecting barriers to keep them out.
Ragoo
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Deputy Travis Junior said:

flown-the-coop said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:


Sure, as those would be effective conservative policies. Almost like the policy itself is important and whether or not other countries with economies a fraction of the size of ours have tariffs is completely irrelevant to this discussion.

America First is the most conservative of all conservative policies.

Trump is using tariffs to make America First.


America first should make the country better long term. Instituting tariffs that let fat, complacent companies continue to be fat and complacent while China is racing ahead in many areas (cars, energy, batteries) is not making us better long term. If you don't believe me, read the CEO of ford's comments on Chinese cars and how they're better than what we're building.

To be fair, I think Trump is dropping barriers in AI and crypto, but some of the manufacturing policies and tariffs are nuts. At this point, China is better at high tech manufacturing than we are and it's not that close. We should be inviting those companies here so that we can learn their techniques, not erecting barriers to keep them out.
fat or complacent notwithstanding it is difficult for an American company to compete head to head with a Chinese company when the standard of living and benefit expectation is on a scale of US McMansion vs dirt floors. You either need to be protectionist or expect a lowering of living standard. A little hyperbolic but the general sentiment holds true.
Deputy Travis Junior
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China isn't beating us because they have cheap labor. They're beating us because their manufacturing processes are better, higher tech, and more automated.
No Spin Ag
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Deputy Travis Junior said:

China isn't beating us because they have cheap labor. They're beating us because their manufacturing processes are better, higher tech, and more automated.

And all thanks to every American company that sent its manufacturing business overseas for the past 50-60 years.

Had that not happened, who knows how much better off we would be, and worse off they would be.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
BusterAg
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Deputy Travis Junior said:

China isn't beating us because they have cheap labor. They're beating us because their manufacturing processes are better, higher tech, and more automated.

Is it your contention that Chinese innovation around manufacturing is superior to US innovation around manufacturing?
It takes a special kind of brainwashed useful idiot to politically defend government fraud, waste, and abuse.
IslanderAg04
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Logos Stick said:

doubledog said:

So Tariffs are responsible for 0.3% increase and not government spending or interest rates. Got it.


I don't care what the cause is. Rates should not be lowered right now, but I expect they will do it anyway because of Trump's tantrums.


What was your take in 2021-2022?
Deputy Travis Junior
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BusterAg said:

Deputy Travis Junior said:

China isn't beating us because they have cheap labor. They're beating us because their manufacturing processes are better, higher tech, and more automated.

Is it your contention that Chinese innovation around manufacturing is superior to US innovation around manufacturing?


Correct. They're significantly more automated than we are + use a lot more robots.
BusterAg
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Deputy Travis Junior said:

BusterAg said:

Deputy Travis Junior said:

China isn't beating us because they have cheap labor. They're beating us because their manufacturing processes are better, higher tech, and more automated.

Is it your contention that Chinese innovation around manufacturing is superior to US innovation around manufacturing?


Correct. They're significantly more automated than we are + use a lot more robots.

And it was Chinese companies that invented these robots and automation techniques?
It takes a special kind of brainwashed useful idiot to politically defend government fraud, waste, and abuse.
Kansas Kid
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BusterAg said:

Deputy Travis Junior said:

BusterAg said:

Deputy Travis Junior said:

China isn't beating us because they have cheap labor. They're beating us because their manufacturing processes are better, higher tech, and more automated.

Is it your contention that Chinese innovation around manufacturing is superior to US innovation around manufacturing?


Correct. They're significantly more automated than we are + use a lot more robots.

And it was Chinese companies that invented these robots and automation techniques?


In many cases yes. They have a lot of brand new plants that have great economy of scale while many of our steel plants have outdated technology which is why US steel being purchased will be great for keeping those plants going because they will invest to make them better but likely they will still be less efficient.

Go see how many engineers and scientists China graduates a year vs the US where a lot of our degrees are in areas like gender studies and philosophy and you will see why they are out innovating us in many areas. They also steel IP as well which helps (don't think for a minute our companies won't also try to reverse engineer Chinese technology).
Ragoo
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Deputy Travis Junior said:

China isn't beating us because they have cheap labor. They're beating us because their manufacturing processes are better, higher tech, and more automated.
have you ever been in a Chinese manufacturing facility?

I don't think hundreds of US workers are sitting in the dark at a tiny desk Dremel tooling negatives by lamp light.

On top of that Chinese manufacturing builds on site apartments. They expect their employees and families to live there. They work 6-12s. Their entire culture around work is different. Very subservient.
Ragoo
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Kansas Kid said:

BusterAg said:

Deputy Travis Junior said:

BusterAg said:

Deputy Travis Junior said:

China isn't beating us because they have cheap labor. They're beating us because their manufacturing processes are better, higher tech, and more automated.

Is it your contention that Chinese innovation around manufacturing is superior to US innovation around manufacturing?


Correct. They're significantly more automated than we are + use a lot more robots.

And it was Chinese companies that invented these robots and automation techniques?


In many cases yes. They have a lot of brand new plants that have great economy of scale while many of our steel plants have outdated technology which is why US steel being purchased will be great for keeping those plants going because they will invest to make them better but likely they will still be less efficient.

Go see how many engineers and scientists China graduates a year vs the US where a lot of our degrees are in areas like gender studies and philosophy and you will see why they are out innovating us in many areas. They also steel IP as well which helps (don't think for a minute our companies won't also try to reverse engineer Chinese technology).
you ever worked with a Chinese engineer? Similar to an Indian engineer. Does math well, don't know **** about practical application.
Duckhook
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MemphisAg1 said:

But Trump says there's no inflation!

Somebody's about to get fired.
Deputy Travis Junior
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This is head in the sand stupidity. They're profitably churning out high tech, $15k cars that have the CEO of ford's jaw on the floor, and you're pretending that they're hand turning screwdrivers to make cheap crap by candlelight.

https://fordauthority.com/2025/07/ford-ceo-jim-farley-says-chinese-vehicles-have-higher-quality-than-western-cars/

While speaking at the 2025 Aspen Ideas Festival, Farley once again touched on the subject of Chinese vehicles, stating that "their cost, their quality of their vehicles is far superior to what I see in the west."

We can't keep pretending that we have a decade+ lead on them. We need to get competitive fast, not enact a bunch of tariffs that remove competitive pressures and continue giving longshoremen sweetheart deals for manual labor while the rest of the world automates.
flown-the-coop
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Seems like Ford should find a CEO that has some pride and is not some ***** willow representative for President Xi.

Yet another reason Ford sucks.

I cannot imagine a soy boy so feckless he brags about how much better the Chicoms are than his own company.

What a wuss. Or stupid idiot. Or both.
samurai_science
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Deputy Travis Junior said:

This is head in the sand stupidity. They're profitably churning out high tech, $15k cars that have the CEO of ford's jaw on the floor, and you're pretending that they're hand turning screwdrivers to make cheap crap by candlelight.

https://fordauthority.com/2025/07/ford-ceo-jim-farley-says-chinese-vehicles-have-higher-quality-than-western-cars/

While speaking at the 2025 Aspen Ideas Festival, Farley once again touched on the subject of Chinese vehicles, stating that "their cost, their quality of their vehicles is far superior to what I see in the west."

We can't keep pretending that we have a decade+ lead on them. We need to get competitive fast, not enact a bunch of tariffs that remove competitive pressures and continue giving longshoremen sweetheart deals for manual labor while the rest of the world automates.


They also don't have unions weighing them down
Ragoo
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Deputy Travis Junior said:

This is head in the sand stupidity. They're profitably churning out high tech, $15k cars that have the CEO of ford's jaw on the floor, and you're pretending that they're hand turning screwdrivers to make cheap crap by candlelight.

https://fordauthority.com/2025/07/ford-ceo-jim-farley-says-chinese-vehicles-have-higher-quality-than-western-cars/

While speaking at the 2025 Aspen Ideas Festival, Farley once again touched on the subject of Chinese vehicles, stating that "their cost, their quality of their vehicles is far superior to what I see in the west."

We can't keep pretending that we have a decade+ lead on them. We need to get competitive fast, not enact a bunch of tariffs that remove competitive pressures and continue giving longshoremen sweetheart deals for manual labor while the rest of the world automates.
I've been in a massive Chinese manufacturing center. I have seen it with my own eyes. Are you calling me a liar?
deddog
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BusterAg said:

Deputy Travis Junior said:

BusterAg said:

Deputy Travis Junior said:

China isn't beating us because they have cheap labor. They're beating us because their manufacturing processes are better, higher tech, and more automated.

Is it your contention that Chinese innovation around manufacturing is superior to US innovation around manufacturing?


Correct. They're significantly more automated than we are + use a lot more robots.

And it was Chinese companies that invented these robots and automation techniques?


Nope, but does that matter?

The Chinese have a significant advantage over us because they share (stolen) IP at the government level.
So imagine if some chinese steals IP from Verizon. Previously, that IP was only known to some Verizon employees.

That IP is now available to a very-large pool of Chinese engineers. The chances of someone innovating there are much higher, simply because a lot many more people have access to the information.
 
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