I occasionally consult for a Mitsubishi plant in Indiana that makes large household applicances. Prior to Trump's 1st term they had offshored and were down to 10 maintenance people keeping things from deteriorating. When Trump did the steel tarriffs his 1st term they ramped to 4300 employees in about 6 months and continued at that level for a number of years. During Biden they started ramping down quickly although not to their non-operations level. They have been ramping back up quickly again.

Similar story at an Aisan auto parts plant in a different IN town. Econ Dvpt types are saying the same thing is happening there and a lot of other plants. Some companies are announcing "new plants" but a lot of other global companies already had vacant/dormant facilities here that they have the flexibility to ramp up and down quickly.

If I remember correctly, Sec 232 and 301 tariffs to protect domestic steel and aluminum companies put in place under Trump remained largely the same, if not increased slightly, during the Biden administration.

Roughly during the same time period I worked for the largest steel producer in the US...we were directed to under report capacity utilization to further support/influence the 232 and 301 tariffs. We also increased prices during the time period since a floor had been created by the tariffs.

FobTies said:

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The US needs to lead in robotics and automation. We outsourced for cheap human labor. Replace cheap Asians with domestic robots.

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Better than giving the work to China or India

Just make sure the robots are made in America

Sims said:

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It's interesting Trump doesn't get the benefit of wait and see when people think he's made the wrong choice.

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Well one reason he doesn't get the benefit of the doubt is we have all seen this movie in his first term and we know that press releases don't equal factories being opened

Another reason is there is no way this is going to work. Maybe focused tariffs on a few key industries that you want to bring back and working with our allies to focus on the worst players in the international trade area might have worked.

Declaring war on everybody is not IMO a sound strategy

I'm doing my best not to sound like a sycophant, but for everything that Trump misunderstands, and I think there is a lot...he very clearly understands how to wield power. Right now, he's got it and he's using it.

We've signed new trade deals with the EU, Japan, Philippines, Indonesia. A mini-deal with India is pending as a more broad FTA is worked out. Bessent and Chinese VPremier have jointly announced a framework (yeah, that's nothing, I get it, but it's bilateral communication none the less).

I think the perception of what Trump is doing is different than what Trump is doing. What's very different this time around is the people Trump brough in to execute his vision are actually executing his vision rather than counterproductive stalling or outright subterfuge.

I agree 100% with those saying announcements are one things, let's see action and then we can decide. I think that is by far the most even handed way to look at it. The problem I have is when there is actual action and execution of a cohesive plan (like it or not, it's his plan) a large percentage of people just ignore it like it never happened. It's similar to the sunshine pumper and pot banger argument when someone takes the position that, "I'd love to be proved wrong, but this isn't gonna work." It's disingenous because you win either way.

ETA: This picture perfectly encapsulates Trumps intuition on and the use of his buly pulpit. I think it's extremely difficult to argue with his political skill.

I just look at him blowing up NAFTA which was probably warranted.
then 6 years later blowing up the deal he negotiated and signed. That replaced NAFTA


Using Canadian Lumber as an example raising the tariffs on Canadian Lumber help the domestic lumber industry but there is a reason why Canadian lumber is cheaper and taxing it just makes things more expensive

If American Lumber was as cheap as Canadian lumber we wouldn't have to tariff Canadian Lumber

Sq 17 said:

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I just look at him blowing up NAFTA which was probably warranted.
then 6 years later blowing up the deal he negotiated and signed. That replaced NAFTA


Using Canadian Lumber as an example raising the tariffs on Canadian Lumber help the domestic lumber industry but there is a reason why Canadian lumber is cheaper and taxing it just makes things more expensive

If American Lumber was as cheap as Canadian lumber we wouldn't have to tariff Canadian Lumber

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I think your example is a great one and where the I think the biggest disconnect between what Trump is trying to do and what people think Trump is trying to do.

Trump is a populist and mercantlist. He's not trying to make everything cheaper. He's trying to protect American industry. There will be people that pay more and he's fine with it because he THINKS there will be net benefit overall.

Now, that leads to the discussion of the knock on effects of more expensive lumber and the downstream impacts in construction, manufacturing and whatever else...That's perfectly fair area for criticism. There's also the consideration domestic lumber industry, trucking, property values, tax base and that's mostly ignored in favor of the first.

The example I added above about steel pricing and protectionism is an obvious negative mark for protectionism and malicious behavior by a company seeking profit over value to the detriment of US consumers so I'm not unaware of that motivation and inclination.

Trump is perfectly fine with the greater good, as long as it is 2nd fiddle to American interest. That's the biggest difference between him and the post ww2 paradigm.

Sims said:

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I'm sorry he hurt you

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I'm not. I love it

BigRobSA said:

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Over_ed said:

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I'm not sure where you are getting your data?

If you throw out the pandemic years, wherein many were literally paid not to work... 2018 through 2024 are, exclusively, the 5 lowest unemployment years in the last 30. So far, 2025 is on track to be the seventh lowest unemployment rate (out of the last 30 years).

Average American personal debt has been in the range of 50 - 60,000 dollars (adjusted for inflation) for the last 20 years. There was an uptick last year to ~61,000 dollars.

Man, am I missing something?

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UE numbers have been cooked like Enron books since Clinton.

You also have to include participation rate, reality, etc.


As usual, govt numbers are asshoe.

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In every administration, every day of the week, and twice on Sunday.

AJ02 said:

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I know one of my biggest suppliers is currently working to get the capital to set up a processing plant domestically to produce a raw material that China currently provides 80% of the world's supply of. Hopefully they don't scrap it before completion. But to say the tariffs aren't bringing manufacturing back is not true. It just takes a while.

Different supplier of mine says they have two of their suppliers currently working to set up a domestic manufacturing option as well.

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In the meantime those proposed plants will have to be built increasing the amount of work for construction.
Made in America Agenda Delivers Manufacturing Boom

• AbbVie
• Apple
• Century Aluminum
• Ford
• GE Appliances

These companies say they're investing more in U.S. manufacturing as tariffs go into effect

• Johnson & Johnson's plan to invest $55 billion in U.S. manufacturing
• Illinois-based medical device company Abbott Laboratories said in a statement Wednesday that a $500 million investment in manufacturing, research and development capabilities at plants in Illinois and Texas
• Chobani, known for its Greek-style yogurt, is expanding manufacturing in New York State
• Honda Motor this week said it is moving production of its Civic Hybrid Hatchback from Japan to the U.S.

Well, well, well!

Quote:

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JPMorgan economists argue that actual tariff rates in June were lower than headline averages suggest because importers switched to countries with lower tariffs or to domestic producers. WSJ (free link)

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sanangelo said:

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Well, well, well!

Quote:

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JPMorgan economists argue that actual tariff rates in June were lower than headline averages suggest because importers switched to countries with lower tariffs or to domestic producers. WSJ (free link)

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That is likely true but we're still obviously generating a lot of tariff revenue.

"Tariffs will increase inflation"

Just something that people say who make money from the selling out of America to enrich themselves at the cost of fellow Americans.

I see that among some posters here and then on digging deeper, it comes out that they work for a company which outsources a lot and without that, they would lose their jobs. Americans have become selfish. Then there is greed also. Rich people want to get even richer at the cost of America and fellow citizens. Then they gaslight them calling them lazy and advise them to get into HVAC or become a plumber.

All completely missing the point.

Trump's tariffs are good for the long term. If we want to be successful, we have to have a level playing field. We cannot have India impose 100% tariff on us while we, with white man's burden/guilt, allow them 0% while they come and decimate our industries while protecting theirs. No longer.

Semi conductor layoffs starting again, hold on to your butts

samurai_science said:

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Semi conductor layoffs starting again, hold on to your butts

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It is okay. Maybe the business model is bad.
As long as these crooks don't try to cheat us by filing for 100000 H1Bs to replace them. If they do, slam the hammer on them and throw the CEO in jail.

CDUB98 said:

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Quote:

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GE Appliances plans to shift production of refrigerators, gas ranges and water heaters out of China and Mexico as part of a more than $3 billion investment to expand its U.S. operations in Kentucky, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee and South Carolina.

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The details.

Trump is all about these kinds of announcements, but in reality, none of them are actually executing.

The devil is in the details.

GE can announce they're going to mass produce a bunch of green dildos for the WNBA, but that doesn't mean they actually will do it.

Wait to see if something actually happens.

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Good point…Just like this post. Anyone can make anything up.

BusterAg said:

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Over_ed said:

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FobTies said:

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The US needs to lead in robotics and automation. We outsourced for cheap human labor. Replace cheap Asians with domestic robots.

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Yes, it is the only way to bring maufacturing back. Unfortunately, it will greatlly reduce the count of jobs, but much better our robots, within our nation's bounds, than Chinese robots in China.

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Someone has to build the robots, too.

We are better at innovating than China. Building robots requires workers. Let's build the robots here, too.

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Robots will build robots

Over_ed said:

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FobTies said:

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The US needs to lead in robotics and automation. We outsourced for cheap human labor. Replace cheap Asians with domestic robots.

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Yes, it is the only way to bring maufacturing back. Unfortunately, it will greatlly reduce the count of jobs, but much better our robots, within our nation's bounds, than Chinese robots in China.

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it's not the only way. It's not even the best way. The best way is to drastically shrink government, eliminate the welfare state, stop excessive money printing, and reduce regulation. If we did that, we would pick the pants off of China.

TexAgs91 said:

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BusterAg said:

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Over_ed said:

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FobTies said:

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The US needs to lead in robotics and automation. We outsourced for cheap human labor. Replace cheap Asians with domestic robots.

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Yes, it is the only way to bring maufacturing back. Unfortunately, it will greatlly reduce the count of jobs, but much better our robots, within our nation's bounds, than Chinese robots in China.

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Someone has to build the robots, too.

We are better at innovating than China. Building robots requires workers. Let's build the robots here, too.

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Robots will build robots

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Who will build the robots that build the robots?

Turtles all the way down?

BusterAg said:

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TexAgs91 said:

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BusterAg said:

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Over_ed said:

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FobTies said:

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The US needs to lead in robotics and automation. We outsourced for cheap human labor. Replace cheap Asians with domestic robots.

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Yes, it is the only way to bring maufacturing back. Unfortunately, it will greatlly reduce the count of jobs, but much better our robots, within our nation's bounds, than Chinese robots in China.

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Someone has to build the robots, too.

We are better at innovating than China. Building robots requires workers. Let's build the robots here, too.

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Robots will build robots

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Who will build the robots that build the robots?

Turtles all the way down?

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Look up the Von Neumann machine. You don't have to build a lot of robots to begin your robot empire if the few you build manually can build more robots. Besides, Tesla has a leg up already with their robotic manufacturing capabilities.

Prior to his official nomination in September, I think it would be smart for everyone to read this paper by Stephen Miran...(might as well be ghost written by Zoltan Poszar (Bretton Woods III)).

A user's guide to restructuring the global trading system

I'm confident the paper is a road map to Trump's next moves on tariffs and US debt. It ties to stablecoins, weaker dollar, onshoring...amongst other ideas.

You can skip to page 35 for a seemingly pertinent summary of current events;

Quote:

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1) There is good reason to be more cautious with changes to dollar policy than with changes to tariffs.

2) Steps to strengthen undervalued currencies will likely not be taken until risks can be mitigated. The Administration will likely wait for more confidence that inflation and deficits are lower, to limit potentially harmful increases in long yields that could accompany a change to dollar policy. Waiting for turnover at the Federal Reserve increases the likelihood that the Fed will voluntarily cooperate to help accommodate changes in currency policy.

3) Tariffs are a tool for negotiating leverage as much as for revenue and fairness. Tariffs will likely precede any shift to soft dollar policy that requires cooperation from trade partners for implementation, since the terms of any agreement will be more beneficial if the United States has more negotiating leverage. Last time, tariffs led to the Phase 1 agreement with China. Next time, maybe they will lead to a broader multilateral currency accord.

4) Therefore, I expect policy to be dollar-positive before it becomes dollar negative.

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Additional data feeding in positive for US manufacturing.

Anticipated result:

Quote:

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Ahead of the announcement, market participants anticipate that the August flash Manufacturing PMI will tick lower, to 49.5 from the current 49.8.

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Actual result:

Quote:

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Manufacturing rose, with the PMI edging up to 53.3 from 49.8, pointing to a pick-up of momentum in the sector.

Factory employment meanwhile rebounded after a decline in July to register the largest payroll gain since March 2022.

Backlogs rose at an unchanged and therefore joint-steepest rate since May 2022 in the services economy, while manufacturing backlogs also rose to the greatest extent in over three years.

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Sims said:

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Additional data feeding in positive for US manufacturing.

Anticipated result:

Quote:

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Ahead of the announcement, market participants anticipate that the August flash Manufacturing PMI will tick lower, to 49.5 from the current 49.8.

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Actual result:

Quote:

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Manufacturing rose, with the PMI edging up to 53.3 from 49.8, pointing to a pick-up of momentum in the sector.

Factory employment meanwhile rebounded after a decline in July to register the largest payroll gain since March 2022.

Backlogs rose at an unchanged and therefore joint-steepest rate since May 2022 in the services economy, while manufacturing backlogs also rose to the greatest extent in over three years.

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What happens to the numbers in the future once the backlogs are cleared?

They go down, that's called business cycle. Not sure if you're asking a leading question or you are just curious.