Recent grad "unemployment" is greatly undercounted

7,168 Views | 91 Replies | Last: 4 mo ago by deddog
Over_ed
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As a recovering "tech" professor, I've had something stuck in my craw for a couple of months. Until recently I was taking classes post retirement, and have personally witnessed good students not being able to get one interview.

I've seen unemployment rates for recent grads bandied on F16 as about as 6% - 8% as opposed say 4-5% for all, and the feeling seems to be: "well, not as bad as we thought."

I wanted to clarify that a bit.

Counting Unemployment

Almost all students work. Let's say I work 20 hours per week waiting table. I am employed.
Even if I work 1 hour per week, I am still employed, according to the BLS.

If I graduate college, and don't have a job. I'm going to have to keep working. Thus, I never show up as unemployed.

The BLS stat for under-employed is U6. however, this metric is not broken down by age nor by groups like "recent grad".

Underemploment

A more meaningful number: more than 42% of recent grads are underemployed (not needing a college degree.

On the good side (I guess) its been much worse: In March, 1994 about 48% of recent grads were underemployed.

On the bad side, after 15 years of steady decline (excepting COVID) - underemployment is on the rise since 2023, and has climbed 2.5 points (6%) in just the last 18 months.


https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market#--:explore:underemployment

Sorry for the long post.
Who?mikejones!
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College is probably a bad idea for most students. Go learn to be an eletrician, plumber, welder and hundreds of other high paying alternatives and you will probably never be looking for a job
LMCane
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the U-6 has never recovered to pre- COVID levels
rocky the dog
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Elections are when people find out what politicians stand for, and politicians find out what people will fall for.
Lone Stranger
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Would it surprise anyone that 10% of college grads today don't have any knowledge/skills/degrees that make them desirable to invterview; or haven't effectively put those down on paper well enough to interest someone (let alone have spelling/grammar errors; or haven't bothered to meet any grads they can network with; or would rather boomerang home back to mom and dad and sponge off them aren't working full time?

Because of people like OP and his ilk the college degree is no longer the litmus test it used to be. Employers realized that quite some time ago.....ivory tower types....don't want to admit it.
Sims
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In my opinion it's more a function of education than it is the job market.

To reiterate the previous poster, many of these students should have never gone to an expensive 4 year school.

In my experience, many good students are not good employees. They're not learning through, in most cases, iterative, socratic thought processes. That has been replaced by rote memorization. They start interviewing and it becomes obvious very quickly which ones get it and which ones were just there to pass a test.

When I hire FP&A or accounting roles, I'm no longer requiring a CPA. Something I've learned is the CPAs that "get it" operationally are more expensive than we're typically looking for unless we're willing to stretch. The balance of that CPA group that we can always afford often includes the ones that can't think through the practical application of a standard in the real world rather than a text book example. That's not to say they can't be trained, they absolutely can be. Frankly, if I know going in that there is a significant amount of development to be done, I'm just as open to hiring a non-CPA and going through the process.

Paper on the wall today means a lot less than it used to.

EclipseAg
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Not to be a broken record, but we need to sharply limit all forms of immigration -- and especially H-1Bs -- and make jobs for American citizens a priority.

Doing so would solve so many problems.

I've seen a sea change on Twitter in the last year or so where more and more younger people are speaking out against immigration and restoring the American dream for American citizens. I hope that continues.
deddog
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Who?mikejones! said:

College is probably a bad idea for most students. Go learn to be an eletrician, plumber, welder and hundreds of other high paying alternatives and you will probably never be looking for a job

Until someone figures out how to use a robot to do it. No job is safe at this point.
deddog
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Over_ed said:

As a recovering "tech" professor, I've had something stuck in my craw for a couple of months. Until recently I was taking classes post retirement, and have personally witnessed good students not being able to get one interview.


This has been going on since the entire Biden administration, and it isn't better yet. Biden admin was anti-business, so that makes sense.
Not really better so far under Trump (he will need time). Restricting H1s is one issue, but the other is jobs moving overseas. If we don't figure that shi$ out + AI, this country is in trouble.
Gaw617
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This has nothing to do with the economy or companies this is about the education system and the type of kids that are being raised today. Very few young people have the interpersonal skills it requires to manage risk and deal with conflicting perspectives. Very few have strong theoretical knowledge that can be applied to real business problems. They have sat behind their phones with usernames and have been taught what to think not how to think. It's sad to see how ill equipped kids are coming into the workforce today.
Detmersdislocatedshoulder
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i hate to break it to you but alot of people are going to be under employeed over the next few years due to AI. that will most likely include myself.

better start making plans now, which i am or you will be in a rough patch in the not to distant future.
deddog
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Gaw617 said:

This has nothing to do with the economy or companies this is about the education system and the type of kids that are being raised today. Very few young people have the interpersonal skills it requires to manage risk and deal with conflicting perspectives. Very few have strong theoretical knowledge that can be applied to real business problems. They have sat behind their phones with usernames and have been taught what to think not how to think. It's sad to see how ill equipped kids are coming into the workforce today.

I know really good engineering kids, that are having trouble finding jobs out of college. My kids were looking for internships. The company I used to work at had 2 internships in Austin. And 40 in Bangalore.
And a lot of the engineering programs at Texas A&M are really top notch. I've been impressed by how much my kids learnt. And yet, their peers are all having trouble.

Companies are not hiring in the US. They are hiring overseas. That's a problem and it can't be fixed by asking kids who are good engineering material to be plumbers instead.

Picard
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EclipseAg said:

Not to be a broken record, but we need to sharply limit all forms of immigration -- and especially H-1Bs -- and make jobs for American citizens a priority.

Doing so would solve so many problems.

I've seen a sea change on Twitter in the last year or so where more and more younger people are speaking out against immigration and restoring the American dream for American citizens. I hope that continues.


This right here. And India coming online with Starlink and other infrastructure growth is a huge threat to the US workforce.

Logos Stick
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Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:

i hate to break it to you but alot of people are going to be under employeed over the next few years due to AI. that will most likely include myself.

better start making plans now, which i am or you will be in a rough patch in the not to distant future.


Not trying to be an A, but what kinds of plans should one be making? If you are educated and trained to do X, its not easy to skill up for something else, especially if you are working full time in the role of X.

I do agree that it's coming and will most likely be a waterfall type event unfortunately.
SunrayAg
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As the parent of 2 recent Texas A&M graduates… don't get me started.

Graduating during covid insanity was bad enough.

And it doesn't help matters that our beloved university invested exactly 0 minutes combined in helping them find employment opportunities.
Who?mikejones!
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deddog said:

Who?mikejones! said:

College is probably a bad idea for most students. Go learn to be an eletrician, plumber, welder and hundreds of other high paying alternatives and you will probably never be looking for a job

Until someone figures out how to use a robot to do it. No job is safe at this point.



True. But, I think we are a ways off from having robots replace these sorts of workers in mass. I dont think that's the same for most white collar position where a bot can do the work much easier.

Eventually, im sure we will get to a place where robots are setting the plumbing(electrical, mechanical, welding, etc) in a house/building, but it doesn't seem like the easiest trade to simply through a robot in there.

I have seen robot roofers and drywall hangers. But, neither of those really require too much skill to begin with.
Who?mikejones!
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deddog said:

Gaw617 said:

This has nothing to do with the economy or companies this is about the education system and the type of kids that are being raised today. Very few young people have the interpersonal skills it requires to manage risk and deal with conflicting perspectives. Very few have strong theoretical knowledge that can be applied to real business problems. They have sat behind their phones with usernames and have been taught what to think not how to think. It's sad to see how ill equipped kids are coming into the workforce today.

I know really good engineering kids, that are having trouble finding jobs out of college. My kids were looking for internships. The company I used to work at had 2 internships in Austin. And 40 in Bangalore.
And a lot of the engineering programs at Texas A&M are really top notch. I've been impressed by how much my kids learnt. And yet, their peers are all having trouble.

Companies are not hiring in the US. They are hiring overseas. That's a problem and it can't be fixed by asking kids who are good engineering material to be plumbers instead.




Yeah this is also a major problem. The American worker is too expensive, and, more likely to be a "social" problem. The total cost of hiring America isnt worth the benefits
infinity ag
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Who?mikejones! said:

College is probably a bad idea for most students. Go learn to be an eletrician, plumber, welder and hundreds of other high paying alternatives and you will probably never be looking for a job


hahahhahahhahahh

Our kids become electricans and sewage workers and Rajesh's son and Chang's daughter become AI engineers and Doctors.

Noice.


infinity ag
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EclipseAg said:

Not to be a broken record, but we need to sharply limit all forms of immigration -- and especially H-1Bs -- and make jobs for American citizens a priority.

Doing so would solve so many problems.

I've seen a sea change on Twitter in the last year or so where more and more younger people are speaking out against immigration and restoring the American dream for American citizens. I hope that continues.


Now we have a very smart opinion.
The problem is our country hates us. They would rather employ foreigner's kids than our kids with the excuse that they make a few dollars more. Apparently It is okay to destroy the country for short term gains and label it "capitalism" and "conservatism".
Hoyt Ag
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I am a manager of coal power plants. Am I worried about my specific role being taken by AI, not really. But coal is being phased out of CO by 2030. Then I have to decide if I want to move within the company in a new role or take severance and leave. I Got my PMP cert last year and am doing more online classes to make me more marketable when I need to find a new role. Being a 42yo white male is screened out by most applicant tracking systems. I need to make sure I can work for about 10-12 years from now, then I can semi-retire then and not worry about such a high paying job any longer.
infinity ag
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deddog said:

Over_ed said:

As a recovering "tech" professor, I've had something stuck in my craw for a couple of months. Until recently I was taking classes post retirement, and have personally witnessed good students not being able to get one interview.


This has been going on since the entire Biden administration, and it isn't better yet. Biden admin was anti-business, so that makes sense.
Not really better so far under Trump (he will need time). Restricting H1s is one issue, but the other is jobs moving overseas. If we don't figure that shi$ out + AI, this country is in trouble.


deddog is right too.
H1B is one small part of the puzzle. L1 and other kinds of visas are misused too. L1 visa has NO CAPS!

Where I think I disagree with him is that I think the government needs to act. Tariff corporations for hiring overseas.
infinity ag
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deddog said:

Gaw617 said:

This has nothing to do with the economy or companies this is about the education system and the type of kids that are being raised today. Very few young people have the interpersonal skills it requires to manage risk and deal with conflicting perspectives. Very few have strong theoretical knowledge that can be applied to real business problems. They have sat behind their phones with usernames and have been taught what to think not how to think. It's sad to see how ill equipped kids are coming into the workforce today.

I know really good engineering kids, that are having trouble finding jobs out of college. My kids were looking for internships. The company I used to work at had 2 internships in Austin. And 40 in Bangalore.
And a lot of the engineering programs at Texas A&M are really top notch. I've been impressed by how much my kids learnt. And yet, their peers are all having trouble.

Companies are not hiring in the US. They are hiring overseas. That's a problem and it can't be fixed by asking kids who are good engineering material to be plumbers instead.




Right. If you say "we need to make it economically viable, we will turn into skeletons 6 feet under by then.
Tariff corps NOW. Trump is getting countries to obey, they will fall in line here also.

"Go become a plumber" is very 1950s.
ABATTBQ87
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SunrayAg said:

As the parent of 2 recent Texas A&M graduates… don't get me started.

Graduating during covid insanity was bad enough.

And it doesn't help matters that our beloved university invested exactly 0 minutes combined in helping them find employment opportunities.

I have been a manufacturing recruiter for 27 years, always exploring creative ways to engage college students with my companies. In my opinion, the best college program is Kettering University's Cooperative and Experiential Education.

Here is a brief description of their program:

Students alternate 11-week academic terms with 12-week terms of progressively challenging work with an approved employer. Students will also participate in professional development modules designed to integrate academic and work experiences at key points in their progression. The minimum requirement for a work term is six weeks (240 hours) of work to receive credit for the term.*

Co-op managers serve as a liaison between the employer partner, the student, and the university. They help address any concerns and ensure a successful co-op experience for all parties. Co-op managers are highly qualified professionals, a valuable resource, who coach students throughout the entire experiential learning program. Students will learn career-readiness skills and enhance their professionalism by following the advice of co-op managers.

The co-op team also develops and maintains employer relationships and promotes co-op positions to students seeking employment. The co-op office maintains the employment records of all students in the Connect system. It is therefore essential for students to update their co-op manager on any changes to their employment status as they work toward meeting co-op requirements.
deddog
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infinity ag said:

Who?mikejones! said:

College is probably a bad idea for most students. Go learn to be an eletrician, plumber, welder and hundreds of other high paying alternatives and you will probably never be looking for a job


hahahhahahhahahh

Our kids become electricans and sewage workers and Rajesh's son and Chang's son become AI engineers and Doctors.

Noice.



You haven't used a plumber? Those hourly rates are pretty dang good.
There's nothing wrong with those jobs, but just like not everyone is good at college, not everyone is good at plumbing either.
Hoyt Ag
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Don't feed the troll. His schtick is tired and laughable.
infinity ag
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deddog said:

infinity ag said:

Who?mikejones! said:

College is probably a bad idea for most students. Go learn to be an eletrician, plumber, welder and hundreds of other high paying alternatives and you will probably never be looking for a job


hahahhahahhahahh

Our kids become electricans and sewage workers and Rajesh's son and Chang's son become AI engineers and Doctors.

Noice.



You haven't used a plumber? Those hourly rates are pretty dang good.
There's nothing wrong with those jobs, but just like not everyone is good at college, not everyone is good at plumbing either.


Nothing wrong in being a plumber. Or a sewage worker, we need all of them in a community.
However, if someone is good at programming or software design or management, don't tell him to become an HVAC guy. Of course I don't mean "you", I meant for the folks who make that reco,
infinity ag
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Hoyt Ag said:

I am a managr of coal power plants. Am I worried about my specific role being taken by AI, not really. But coal is being phased out of CO by 2030. Then I have to decide if I want to move within the company in a new role or take severance and leave. I Got my PMP cert last year and am doing more online classes to make me more marketable when I need to find a new role. Being a 42yo white male is screened out by most applicant tracking systems. I need to make sure I can work for about 10-12 years from now, then I can semi-retire then and not worry about such a high paying job any longer.


How do they know you are white?
The only way they may guess is from your name but you may be black too in some cases. Or even Asian. The only way is your Linkedin profile but ATS does not look at that.

The only way ATS knows is when you answers those "optional" questions in an application about race and gender and pronouns (reduced now). Pick "will not disclose" . You may be getting screened out because of your honesty. I never give out that info. Only thing I say is I am not handicapped in any way.
One Louder
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SunrayAg said:

As the parent of 2 recent Texas A&M graduates… don't get me started.

Graduating during covid insanity was bad enough.

And it doesn't help matters that our beloved university invested exactly 0 minutes combined in helping them find employment opportunities.


That surprises me. We had a really good career center a few years ago. What happened?
infinity ag
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One Louder said:

SunrayAg said:

As the parent of 2 recent Texas A&M graduates… don't get me started.

Graduating during covid insanity was bad enough.

And it doesn't help matters that our beloved university invested exactly 0 minutes combined in helping them find employment opportunities.


That surprises me. We had a really good career center a few years ago. What happened?


A&M's career center was AMAZING back in the 90s. Koldus building, if I remember right. Had to fill up a floppy disk and submit it and schedule interviews with employers on campus. That is how I got my job and A&M let us do it as many times as we wanted.

My son is at a top ranked engg school and there is practically no career center. They have outsourced it Linkedin. I am astounded when I found out. Looks like A&M's CC is gone too.
ABATTBQ87
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Hoyt Ag said:

I am a managr of coal power plants. Am I worried about my specific role being taken by AI, not really. But coal is being phased out of CO by 2030. Then I have to decide if I want to move within the company in a new role or take severance and leave. I Got my PMP cert last year and am doing more online classes to make me more marketable when I need to find a new role. Being a 42yo white male is screened out by most applicant tracking systems. I need to make sure I can work for about 10-12 years from now, then I can semi-retire then and not worry about such a high paying job any longer.

That is 100% False; I've used many Applicant tracking systems, and that is not a function; now if the recruiters are told to ignore you, that is another issue.
TMfrisco
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My daughter graduated in May. She spent the Spring job hunting. She applied for 56 jobs (not jobs over her head), interviewed 25 times and received one offer. Fortunately a job she liked.

She was a 4.0 from Mays. Smart. Talks well to anyone. Sorority President. Buck Weirus winner. Selected to work for the Collegiate Council for 2 years. Sorority woman of the year. Good internships. Etc, Etc... In other words, the resume was good.

At her graduation my nephew said, "If she is having a hard time finding a job, what are the 'normal' kids doing".

I think the technical kids and engineers are doing ok - everyone else, not so much. I would agree the "underemployment" is high.
Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno
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TMfrisco said:

My daughter graduated in May. She spent the Spring job hunting. She applied for 56 jobs (not jobs over her head), interviewed 25 times and received one offer. Fortunately a job she liked.

She was a 4.0 from Mays. Smart. Talks well to anyone. Sorority President. Buck Weirus winner. Selected to work for the Collegiate Council for 2 years. Sorority woman of the year. Good internships. Etc, Etc... In other words, the resume was good.

At her graduation my nephew said, "If she is having a hard time finding a job, what are the 'normal' kids doing".

I think the technical kids and engineers are doing ok - everyone else, not so much. I would agree the "underemployment" is high.


What was her major
Who?mikejones!
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infinity ag said:

deddog said:

Gaw617 said:

This has nothing to do with the economy or companies this is about the education system and the type of kids that are being raised today. Very few young people have the interpersonal skills it requires to manage risk and deal with conflicting perspectives. Very few have strong theoretical knowledge that can be applied to real business problems. They have sat behind their phones with usernames and have been taught what to think not how to think. It's sad to see how ill equipped kids are coming into the workforce today.

I know really good engineering kids, that are having trouble finding jobs out of college. My kids were looking for internships. The company I used to work at had 2 internships in Austin. And 40 in Bangalore.
And a lot of the engineering programs at Texas A&M are really top notch. I've been impressed by how much my kids learnt. And yet, their peers are all having trouble.

Companies are not hiring in the US. They are hiring overseas. That's a problem and it can't be fixed by asking kids who are good engineering material to be plumbers instead.




Right. If you say "we need to make it economically viable, we will turn into skeletons 6 feet under by then.
Tariff corps NOW. Trump is getting countries to obey, they will fall in line here also.

"Go become a plumber" is very 1950s.


Bro, my plumber and electrician make more than 200k a year. My hvac guy more.

If you're going to go to college and get anything other than degree in a credentialed field, I'd seriously push going tje trade route. And, (me speaking to my kids) if you do choose to go to college, youd better get your ass to the top of the class, be involved, and get advanced degrees.

Whatever path one chooses, do it 100%

Also, what do you have against plumbers, electricians, etc.?
MaroonStain
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Hoyt Ag said:

Don't feed the troll. His schtick is tired and laughable.


Yep. That poster is Vader and Azulag hedge level restarted with their trolling. Likely a 3rd or 4th sock too.
tysker
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Dont worry guys, with all of these tariffs, we'll have plenty of manufacturing jobs reshoring any day now
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