Teslag said:

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Walter E. Kurtz said:

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State inspectors reviewed and approved Mystics flood response plan on July 2, just 2 days before the flood.

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We discussed this a bit back, looks like it was just a state health department inspection, not a detailed look at their flood safety plan.

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The regulators check to see if you have the minimum requirements and if you do, they will sign it off. It is up to the owner of the plan to properly execute the plan.

CollieLover1138 said:

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the second camp wasn't in existence in 2013.

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Good catch. Looks like only 7 structures in the second camp are in the flood plain. That still doesn't account for all possibilities.

Some people may consider posting less.

it accounts for the logical ones.

The state did approve Mystic's emergency plans 2 days before the disaster. That's part of the inspection with camps. It's clearly stated in the reporting about the inspection and I am familiar with the process as I worked in the field office of a Hunt TX camp.

Also found through their minutes that the Upper Guadalupe River Authority approved a contractor for a flood warning system on April 17. Director at Waldemar, former director and part owner of La Junta and Dick Eastland were all on the board and it was approved unanimously.

Teslag said:

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The current flood map was dated 2011.

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There was a map in existence in 2000 that is very similar. Grid E2 is roughly were the camp is.
https://map1.msc.fema.gov/firm?id=48265C0250E

5Amp said:

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Teslag said:

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Walter E. Kurtz said:

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State inspectors reviewed and approved Mystics flood response plan on July 2, just 2 days before the flood.

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We discussed this a bit back, looks like it was just a state health department inspection, not a detailed look at their flood safety plan.

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It does not matter even if it was the proper authorities who reviewed the response plan, the camp's flood response plan didn't work.

The regulators check to see if you have the minimum requirements and if you do, they will sign it off. It is up to the owner of the plan to properly execute the plan. Obviously, their plan was not implemented as written and that is a huge problem for the camp management.

With senior titles come perks and accolades but also responsibility and ownership.

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This is what I suspected would be the issue, flood evac plans are only as good as the people implementing them, if you have a plan but don't implement it properly or are not staffed properly to implement it then it's gonna be a problem.

The other obvious answer is to build in a safer spot but that's not always feasible or possible

FM 949 said:

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it accounts for the logical ones.

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Well logically there's about 26 large structures in the floodplain that clearly aren't sheds based on imagery. Jeeze, you can "logically" look at the BFE and the associated LOMR's elevation certifications to clearly see that some of those closer to the river more than likely not included.

5Amp said:

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Teslag said:

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Walter E. Kurtz said:

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State inspectors reviewed and approved Mystics flood response plan on July 2, just 2 days before the flood.

---

We discussed this a bit back, looks like it was just a state health department inspection, not a detailed look at their flood safety plan.

---

It does not matter even if it was the proper authorities who reviewed the response plan, the camp's flood response plan didn't work.

The regulators check to see if you have the minimum requirements and if you do, they will sign it off. It is up to the owner of the plan to properly execute the plan. Obviously, their plan was not implemented as written and that is a huge problem for the camp management.

With senior titles come perks and accolades but also responsibility and ownership.

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I'm just really hesitant to blame the owner's for their plans or actions. They obviously cared about this place and the well being of these girls. It's possible their plan was the best one possible and was carried out well and nature still won.

Remember these plans aren't geared towards 100-year/500-year events. I don't doubt they could have executed this plan for a 10-year flood event.

Teslag said:

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5Amp said:

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Teslag said:

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Walter E. Kurtz said:

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State inspectors reviewed and approved Mystics flood response plan on July 2, just 2 days before the flood.

---

We discussed this a bit back, looks like it was just a state health department inspection, not a detailed look at their flood safety plan.

---

It does not matter even if it was the proper authorities who reviewed the response plan, the camp's flood response plan didn't work.

The regulators check to see if you have the minimum requirements and if you do, they will sign it off. It is up to the owner of the plan to properly execute the plan. Obviously, their plan was not implemented as written and that is a huge problem for the camp management.

With senior titles come perks and accolades but also responsibility and ownership.

---

I'm just really hesitant to blame the owner's for their plans or actions. They obviously cared about this place and the well being of these girls. It's possible their plan was the best one possible and was carried out well and nature still won.

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I'm starting to think this. To successfully move all those girls out of harms way, they would have basically started to do it the night before.

your posts today are coming across like this:

like you're looking for any reason to discredit things.

Teslag said:

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5Amp said:

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Teslag said:

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Walter E. Kurtz said:

---

State inspectors reviewed and approved Mystics flood response plan on July 2, just 2 days before the flood.

---

We discussed this a bit back, looks like it was just a state health department inspection, not a detailed look at their flood safety plan.

---

It does not matter even if it was the proper authorities who reviewed the response plan, the camp's flood response plan didn't work.

The regulators check to see if you have the minimum requirements and if you do, they will sign it off. It is up to the owner of the plan to properly execute the plan. Obviously, their plan was not implemented as written and that is a huge problem for the camp management.

With senior titles come perks and accolades but also responsibility and ownership.

---

I'm just really hesitant to blame the owner's for their plans or actions. They obviously cared about this place and the well being of these girls. It's possible their plan was the best one possible and was carried out well and nature still won.

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That is not how government regulators think, not my experience with them. Your written plan should be fail safe.

We are all still in shock and grieving from this event, a lot of unanswered questions are yet to be addressed.

FM 949 said:

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your posts today are coming across like this:

like you're looking for any reason to discredit things.

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Why are you trying so hard to be certain this LOMR pertains to the cabins in question when it's clear it may not be? Automatically assuming it is so is just as bad as automatically assuming the opposite. And Im not doing either, simply stating there's no way to know or even assume from that LOMR.

What else would someone do a LOMR in 2013 for?

riverrataggie said:

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Teslag said:

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5Amp said:

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Teslag said:

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Walter E. Kurtz said:

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State inspectors reviewed and approved Mystics flood response plan on July 2, just 2 days before the flood.

---

We discussed this a bit back, looks like it was just a state health department inspection, not a detailed look at their flood safety plan.

---

It does not matter even if it was the proper authorities who reviewed the response plan, the camp's flood response plan didn't work.

The regulators check to see if you have the minimum requirements and if you do, they will sign it off. It is up to the owner of the plan to properly execute the plan. Obviously, their plan was not implemented as written and that is a huge problem for the camp management.

With senior titles come perks and accolades but also responsibility and ownership.

---

I'm just really hesitant to blame the owner's for their plans or actions. They obviously cared about this place and the well being of these girls. It's possible their plan was the best one possible and was carried out well and nature still won.

---

I'm starting to think this. To successfully move all those girls out of harms way, they would have basically started to do it the night before.

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Spot on. The plan just wasn't good enough to handle a once a century event. They were overwhelmed. End of story. We are broken hearted here in Kerr County.

FM 949 said:

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What else would someone do a LOMR in 2013 for?

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To lower their flood insurance on some of the cabins. But we don't know which ones were surveyed to not be in a SFHA.

FM 949 said:

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What else would someone do a LOMR in 2013 for?

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To be able to insure as many structures as possible that are shown to be in a FEMA floodmap. This does not mean that all structures will qualify. That's the only reason. If you have almost 30 insurable structures in a floodplain would you want as many as you could insured, even if it couldn't be all of them?

If only Camp Mystic had deaths, and there were one or two more scattered throughout the county maybe we could blame this whole tragedy on their emergency management. At the end of the day, many people thought this couldn't happen to them. There are a few who were awarded by being overly cautious or lucky - I believe Mo-Ranch & Jellystone evacuated early, while other camps weren't in session. This won't happen again because generational knowledge of the river has been disrupted and any changes made from here on out will remember and honor these lost souls.

Agreed, and that's why I say the greatest fix going forward isn't alarms or plans or things like that. It's simply awareness of how fast and how sudden this river can flood and how unforgiving it is when it does. People will now evacuate or seek higher ground much earlier.

Or play by the river during the day and sleep in the hills at night. And I've camped by the Guadalupe River more than once.

KerrAg76 said:

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riverrataggie said:

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Teslag said:

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5Amp said:

---

Teslag said:

---

Walter E. Kurtz said:

---

State inspectors reviewed and approved Mystics flood response plan on July 2, just 2 days before the flood.

---

We discussed this a bit back, looks like it was just a state health department inspection, not a detailed look at their flood safety plan.

---

It does not matter even if it was the proper authorities who reviewed the response plan, the camp's flood response plan didn't work.

The regulators check to see if you have the minimum requirements and if you do, they will sign it off. It is up to the owner of the plan to properly execute the plan. Obviously, their plan was not implemented as written and that is a huge problem for the camp management.

With senior titles come perks and accolades but also responsibility and ownership.

---

I'm just really hesitant to blame the owner's for their plans or actions. They obviously cared about this place and the well being of these girls. It's possible their plan was the best one possible and was carried out well and nature still won.

---

I'm starting to think this. To successfully move all those girls out of harms way, they would have basically started to do it the night before.

---

Spot on. The plan just wasn't good enough to handle a once a century event. They were overwhelmed. End of story. We are broken hearted here in Kerr County.

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And we are here for you. My daughter was at Kickapoo during all of this and I can't imagine what some of the parents and others are going through. This goes for everyone who was impacted throughout Texas. I have many extended family ties to the directors and owners of many of those camps, some who lost their lives.

I know people here are trying to figure out how to make sure this doesn't happen again, but you can't beat Mother Nature.

While it may be scenic to build a house close to a river, that is a recipe for disaster.

Build it on high ground. If you want something on the river, build a deck or something that you can use in good weather but would never hang out on during large thunderstorms and approaching floods. Or maybe a little camping area or small primitive cabin for when the weather is good.

A nephew learned this lesson last week. Built very nice home in town on the river. Was evacuated at about 5' of water in home.

Teslag said:

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CollieLover1138 said:

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and those 15 structures roughly line up with the number of buildings in the flats.

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This isn't shown. And I stand corrected. There are over 40 habitable structures located in Camp Mystic according to property records (and the deed to which the LOMR refers). There's no way to know what 15 structures this LOMR applies to without the supporting exhibits.

https://esearch.kerrcad.org/Property/View/19022?year=2025&ownerId=588726

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This is a standard appraisal district parcel data print out, nothing but references. I will research FIRM maps and get the applicable data tomorrow am. PE CFM and ~35 year practice civil here.

Also a CFM. I pulled firm maps and looked over the LOMR but couldn't identify the structures listed in the LOMR to the buildings they reflected on the ground.

Teslag said:

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Also a CFM. I pulled firm maps and looked over the LOMR but couldn't identify the structures listed in the LOMR to the buildings they reflected on the ground.

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LOMR wouldn't show structures, just contours and associated CWSELs. Might there be LOMA(s) for buildings? Assuming all if the Mystic structures predate FIRM maps. County Floodplain Administrator would regulate future Zone A/AE buildings, or at least I would expect as much. Did some street/drainage design in City of Kerrville ~27 years ago so my personal experience of Kerr county process is obsolete. Whatever the county guys are reviewing and/or approving via their permit protocols is gonna get tightened up big time. Tragic events bring change to what was.

Dumb question but having a brain fart. What is a CFM?

Certified floodplain manager

Someone just posted the determination that listed structures removed by elevation certification. We couldn't identify which specific buildings however

https://map1.msc.fema.gov/data/48/L/14-06-0124A-480419.pdf?LOC=03e7a058cff367b902241de73e8a1b86

Teslag said:

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Certified floodplain manager

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Hmm. Thanks. Learn something new everyday. Had no idea such a designation even existed.

aggiehawg said:

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Teslag said:

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Certified floodplain manager

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Hmm. Thanks. Learn something new everyday. Had no idea such a designation even existed.

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Very similar to the Assistant to the Regional Manager

eric76 said:

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While it may be scenic to build a house close to a river, that is a recipe for disaster.

Build it on high ground. If you want something on the river, build a deck or something that you can use in good weather but would never hang out on during large thunderstorms and approaching floods. Or maybe a little camping area or small primitive cabin for when the weather is good.

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A friend of mine had a house in Hunt, which is now nothing but a slab. Normally he and his family spend the entire month of July there, but this year they were waiting until after the 4th to go. By the grace of God they decided to wait.

Hide your wallets and most importantly your kids. pic.twitter.com/ok7JLWUjW7

— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) July 9, 2025

They need to be escorted away from there.

That's correct. It doesn't mean much beyond someone that does H&H modeling. These guys typically don't deal with real world things. Usually modeling jockeys.