A new plan to tackle our national debt

3,010 Views | 26 Replies | Last: 10 mo ago by lb3
techno-ag
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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-new-plan-might-be-taking-shape-in-washington-to-help-manage-explosive-u-s-debt-d4f4a309

Quote:

George Saravelos, a strategist at Deutsche Bank, has devised a new framework for how the U.S. could better manage its debt without actually doing much to reduce it. He calls it the "Pennsylvania Plan," after Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington. Elements of the proposal appeared to have already been implemented, he said.

Saravelos's proposal wouldn't do much to alleviate the national debt. In fact, it would most likely push yields on long-dated Treasurys higher. But it could buy the U.S. more time to fix the problem, which is critical considering that the appetite in Washington for raising income taxes on individuals and businesses remains quite limited, according to Saravelos.

The broad strokes involve reducing the reliance on foreign investors to absorb much of the supply of newly issued U.S. debt, while adopting policies that encourage U.S. pension funds and other domestic investors to step in and buy more.

While reducing the deficit by either raising taxes or cutting spending would certainly help address the debt, Saravelos said there is simply no appetite in Washington to tackle the debt head on.


Good. I like to hear bold ideas tackling seemingly intractable problems.

Quote:

The administration's advocacy for stablecoins - cryptocurrencies typically pegged to the dollar, usually at $1 per coin - could help the administration put Saravelos's plan into action, since stablecoins are often backed by Treasury bills and other ultra-safe assets. Their growing use could boost demand for U.S. debt.

Also, the push for exempting Treasurys from banking leverage ratios could increase banks' capacity to absorb more government bonds.


Okay. Worth a try. Probably can't hurt to throw crypto in the mix. We are already almost beyond the point of no return as it is.

Quote:

In Saravelos's view, the biggest vulnerability facing the U.S. economy isn't the national debt, or the yawning trade deficit in goods. Instead, the fact that foreign investors own far more U.S. assets than U.S. investors own of foreign assets means the U.S. has become dangerously dependent on foreign money.


Wowzers. That's a good point.

Quote:

If nothing is done to change this, it could potentially destabilize the Treasury market if more foreign investors choose to move their money elsewhere, Saravelos said. Deutsche Bank has highlighted signs that foreign investors have started to pull their money from U.S. assets since Trump unveiled his "liberation day" tariffs on April 2, although it appears to be a gradual process so far.


I'm all for trying something. Best idea I think I've heard is to freeze federal spending for a couple years. No cuts but no mandatory increases either. Eventually things even out.
Trump will fix it.
CDUB98
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Quote:

while adopting policies that encourage U.S. pension funds and other domestic investors to step in and buy more.
Ask the Enron employees how their 401k did following this kind of idea.....
Biz Ag
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Quote:

But it could buy the U.S. more time to fix the problem, which is critical considering that the appetite in Washington for raising income taxes on individuals and businesses remains quite limited, according to Saravelos.
Not to mention those congressional pansies who have no appetite for CUTTING GOVERNMENT SPENDING.

We don't have a government revenue problem in this country, we have a GOVERNMENT SPENDING PROBLEM.
itsyourboypookie
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The debt will get shifted to your balance sheet with favorable interest, and the banks will be on the hook for collecting it.

People who can, will pay, people who can't or DGAF won't.

Then they will run it back up.

It's a made up number anyways
Agwinner03
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Biz Ag said:

Quote:

But it could buy the U.S. more time to fix the problem, which is critical considering that the appetite in Washington for raising income taxes on individuals and businesses remains quite limited, according to Saravelos.
Not to mention those congressional pansies who have no appetite for CUTTING GOVERNMENT SPENDING.

We don't have a government revenue problem in this country, we have a GOVERNMENT SPENDING PROBLEM.
Bingo.

The current government could tax everyone at 100% and still spend more than they bring in. This isn't hard, congress just lacks any balls to do what is needed.
No Spin Ag
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itsyourboypookie said:

The debt will get shifted to your balance sheet with favorable interest, and the banks will be on the hook for collecting it.

People who can, will pay, people who can't or DGAF won't.

Then they will run it back up.

It's a made up number anyways


Same as it ever was.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
Aggie95
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I'm not smart enough to understand all of this, but like you said, it's worth looking at as doing nothing is disastrous However, if it truly "buys time to fix the problem"...that just gives politicians more time to do exactly nothing, which is what they are doing now..
Krombopulos Michael
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Why not just use space cash to pay off the debt?

Gator92
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Aggie95 said:

I'm not smart enough to understand all of this, but like you said, it's worth looking at as doing nothing is disastrous However, if it truly "buys time to fix the problem"...that just gives politicians more time to do exactly nothing, which is what they are doing now..
If more interest is earned by domestic investors, more tax revenue earned.

Foreign investment isn't taxed...
rocky the dog
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Elections are when people find out what politicians stand for, and politicians find out what people will fall for.
Get Off My Lawn
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The plan is (and always has been) super simple: spend less.
Tbone
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Biz Ag said:

Quote:

But it could buy the U.S. more time to fix the problem, which is critical considering that the appetite in Washington for raising income taxes on individuals and businesses remains quite limited, according to Saravelos.
Not to mention those congressional pansies who have no appetite for CUTTING GOVERNMENT SPENDING.

We don't have a government revenue problem in this country, we have a GOVERNMENT SPENDING PROBLEM.
Truth.
And within it, we have a government Fraud problem and potentially a government money laundering problem sending portions of that money back into politicians coffers.
one safe place
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techno-ag said:


Quote:



Saravelos's proposal wouldn't do much to alleviate the national debt. In fact, it would most likely push yields on long-dated Treasurys higher. But it could buy the U.S. more time to fix the problem, which is critical considering that the appetite in Washington for raising income taxes on individuals and businesses remains quite limited, according to Saravelos.


As should be the case for current taxpayers, we pay enough tax. Any change on the revenue side should be eliminating all refundable tax credits and getting the bottom 50% to have to pay some amount of minimum tax, there should be no free rides. Whether the minimum is $100, or $500, or $1,000, or more, someone can decide. But every adult should pay something.

But the main thing is cutting spending. Not cutting the rate of growth in spending, but making actual cuts. If they can't get that done, give me a copy of the budget and a red pen and I will make cuts, huge ones. You see, I don't have to worry about getting reelected. Would only take me part of a day.
Farmer_J
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Here's a better plan. Turn off all immigration. The savings would be exponential.
BQ_90
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Get Off My Lawn said:

The plan is (and always has been) super simple: spend less.
that's not the plan from anyone in the house, senate or white house
AtticusMatlock
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https://us.abalancingact.com/federal-budget-simulator

Can adjust the sliders and try to balance the budget yourself. It's an incredibly difficult proposition given the current debt load due to the amount of money we have to use to service the existing debt. If that wasn't a thing the balancing would be so much easier.
LOYAL AG
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I heard the other day spending is up 53% since COVID. We saw all these "one time" emergency measures yet somehow that cash just got redirected when the emergency ended. There's $2T that went out the door for the emergency and now it's just part of the annual budget. Lots of people getting rich the past five years.
techno-ag
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AtticusMatlock said:

https://us.abalancingact.com/federal-budget-simulator

Can adjust the sliders and try to balance the budget yourself. It's an incredibly difficult proposition given the current debt load due to the amount of money we have to use to service the existing debt. If that wasn't a thing the balancing would be so much easier.

Like I say, best bet may be to just freeze spending at current levels until the budget balances.
Trump will fix it.
BlueSmoke
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Maybe spend less?
Nobody cares. Work Harder
BusterAg
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techno-ag said:


Quote:

In Saravelos's view, the biggest vulnerability facing the U.S. economy isn't the national debt, or the yawning trade deficit in goods. Instead, the fact that foreign investors own far more U.S. assets than U.S. investors own of foreign assets means the U.S. has become dangerously dependent on foreign money.

You get one of these, not both:

1) Your currency serves as the primary reserve currency for the world.
2) You own more investments in foreign countries than they own in your country.

There are ramifications to being the primary reserve currency of the world, and balance of trade / investment is one of them.
It takes a special kind of brainwashed useful idiot to politically defend government fraud, waste, and abuse.
Detmersdislocatedshoulder
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it will never be paid off and that is the intent. it is not a mistake that our national debt has gone from 4 trillion to 37 trillion in under 25 years.
NormanEH
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CDUB98 said:

Quote:

while adopting policies that encourage U.S. pension funds and other domestic investors to step in and buy more.
Ask the Enron employees how their 401k did following this kind of idea.....
Got them into playboy
pfo
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What is going to happen is politicians will never cut spending, so the Fed and Treasury will borrow and print money until the dollar is worthless.

Own real estate, Bitcoin, gold, oil and gas producing minerals, rare earth minersls, and whatever else you can think of that people must have and has real intrinsic value.
tysker
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Quote:

I'm all for trying something. Best idea I think I've heard is to freeze federal spending for a couple years. No cuts but no mandatory increases either. Eventually things even out.
We're borrowing* $5.5 billion per day right now. A freeze will still result in higher payback at a rate of interest.
Remember all the bluster about USAID cuts. In 2024, it was approximately $60 billion, equivalent to about 11 days of borrowing. A freeze in spending at current rates won't even make a dent.


*Borrowing from our children's and grandchildren's future wealth and growth opportunities.
tysker
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Quote:

There are ramifications to being the primary reserve currency of the world, and balance of trade / investment is one of them.
Like trade deficits? The type that Trump and his central-planning buddies want to eliminate?
Brother Shamus
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Too bad nothing will change. Republicans congratulated DOGE on sniffing out waste and corrupt a couple months back, right before turning around and continuing the grift. Now DOGE is a thing of the past and the BBB is basically what we have all seen before.
lb3
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CDUB98 said:

Quote:

while adopting policies that encourage U.S. pension funds and other domestic investors to step in and buy more.
Ask the Enron employees how their 401k did following this kind of idea.....
Yeah, I'm not putting my 401k into treasuries. I don't care how high the rates are.

Of course a liberal congress could dictate that all retirement accounts hold T-Bills as a way to increase demand and artificially suppress rates below the rate of inflation. Of course that's what social security does and why the rate of return is somewhere between 1-2 percent for individual contributors.

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