The Fed is now projected to lower rates in December, not next month.

CPI 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.3%
CPI Core 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.3%

CPI 2.3% YoY, Exp. 2.4%
CPI Core 2.8% YoY, Exp. 2.8%

Quote:

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The consumer price index, which measures the costs for a broad range of goods and services, rose 0.2% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.3%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. The monthly reading was in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate and slightly below the annual forecast for 2.4%.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/13/cpi-inflation-april-2025.html

But tariffs ALWAYS cause inflation because they are dollar-for-dollar passed on to consumers.

Those numbers MUST be wrong.

We've learned two things in the past week, the Fed and the NBA draft lottery are rigged

That's now two consecutive months where inflation numbers were cooler than expected, correct?

FireAg said:

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That's now two consecutive months where inflation numbers were cooler than expected, correct?

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The annual rate has dropped every month since Trump took office.

CORE CPI readings:

Logos Stick said:

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FireAg said:

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That's now two consecutive months where inflation numbers were cooler than expected, correct?

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The annual rate has dropped every month since Trump took office.

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#orangemanwinning

It's going to be disappointing to some that tariffs did not cause inflation to skyrocket as some were predicting…

i still struggle to believe any of these numbers. what i do know is when i buy things they don't seem cheaper. it seems like this is good news and i think what trump is doing to rework global supply chains is the right move but i am not so certain we are out of the woods yet. it is a delicate balancing act and need to be careful that we don't spin to deflation.

Annual inflation rate hit 2.3% in April, less than expected and lowest since 2021

@JeffCoxCNBCcom

The consumer price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.3%, its lowest since February 2021.

Core CPI also increased 0.2% for the month, while the year-over-year level was 2.8%.

Egg prices tumbled, falling 12.7%, though they were still up 49.3% from a year ago.

While the April CPI figures were relatively tame, the Trump tariffs remain a wild card in the inflation picture, depending on where negotiations go between now and the summer.

Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:

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i still struggle to believe any of these numbers. what i do know is when i buy things they don't seem cheaper. it seems like this is good news and i think what trump is doing to rework global supply chains is the right move but i am not so certain we are out of the woods yet. it is a delicate balancing act and need to be careful that we don't spin to deflation.

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You do realize that in a capitalist country with inflation the prices are NOT going to come down.

they are only going to RISE LESS.

else you need to be hoping for DEFLATION- which is actually worse for the economy.

FireAg said:

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That's now two consecutive months where inflation numbers were cooler than expected, correct?

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Isn't that the definition of a recession? /Jen Raggedy Ann

Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:

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i still struggle to believe any of these numbers. what i do know is when i buy things they don't seem cheaper. it seems like this is good news and i think what trump is doing to rework global supply chains is the right move but i am not so certain we are out of the woods yet. it is a delicate balancing act and need to be careful that we don't spin to deflation.

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You have to remember that annual inflation data is looking at YOY.

The red candles below represent monthly data trailing one year back. So each current candle lines up with a red candle from a year ago.

For many commodities, we are currently comparing to elevated prices from a year ago.

But but but.....the Fed and Swamp experts told me inflation and recession were happening ...

Everything the legacy media and democrats say is a lie ... Everything

Over Mother's Day Trump:
Trade deal with GB
Trade deal with China
Prescription drug cut 60% - 90%
Hamas US citizen hostage released
India-Pakiatan cease fire
Houthis stop shooting at ships

Democrats:
Broke into illegal alien detention center and got arrested
Protested against White South African immigrants
Complained we got a free plane

LMCane said:

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Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:

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i still struggle to believe any of these numbers. what i do know is when i buy things they don't seem cheaper. it seems like this is good news and i think what trump is doing to rework global supply chains is the right move but i am not so certain we are out of the woods yet. it is a delicate balancing act and need to be careful that we don't spin to deflation.

---

You do realize that in a capitalist country with inflation the prices are NOT going to come down.

they are only going to RISE LESS.

else you need to be hoping for DEFLATION- which is actually worse for the economy.

---

Deflation is actually badly needed. It's the ONLY thing that will bring balance back between the income classes. It's the only thing that will make housing more affordable.

What people usually root for is for the FED to ease, which actually EXPANDS the money supply, crushes purchasing power, but makes borrowing cheap. In this scenario, you can stretch your affordability through leverage, but everything you have to buy with cash becomes more expensive.

Yes, deflation would come coupled with a recession, possibly a depression. But we are never going back to a healthy economy with a healthy dollar without it. Short term pain for long term gain is the ideal scenario. But nobody wants the short term pain. And the people with the most to lose during the short term pain are the ones at the top making all the decisions.

Even with all of those tariffs? But the DEMS promised inflation would be out of control by now. I don't know who to believe!

LMCane said:

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Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:

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i still struggle to believe any of these numbers. what i do know is when i buy things they don't seem cheaper. it seems like this is good news and i think what trump is doing to rework global supply chains is the right move but i am not so certain we are out of the woods yet. it is a delicate balancing act and need to be careful that we don't spin to deflation.

---

You do realize that in a capitalist country with inflation the prices are NOT going to come down.

they are only going to RISE LESS.

else you need to be hoping for DEFLATION- which is actually worse for the economy.

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i am familiar yes and you do realize what you described is disinflation not deflation.

what i am stating is you can see disinflation because those can be the beginning signs of deflation which as you said is bad for the economy.

You the man HA~!

Agree with you on all points but would prefer to just get down to a lower deficit and then keep nibbling away

we have seen the country can't stomach large changes.

Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:

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i still struggle to believe any of these numbers. what i do know is when i buy things they don't seem cheaper. it seems like this is good news and i think what trump is doing to rework global supply chains is the right move but i am not so certain we are out of the woods yet. it is a delicate balancing act and need to be careful that we don't spin to deflation.

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Prices of items will never reduce a lot unless something bad happens.

What is your source for that chart? Bloomberg?

samurai_science said:

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Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:

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i still struggle to believe any of these numbers. what i do know is when i buy things they don't seem cheaper. it seems like this is good news and i think what trump is doing to rework global supply chains is the right move but i am not so certain we are out of the woods yet. it is a delicate balancing act and need to be careful that we don't spin to deflation.

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Prices of items will never reduce a lot unless something bad happens.

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Unless you consider gasoline an item. Gasoline is going down, and it's a good thing.

You're thinking of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, which is the textbook definition of a recession. Conversely, two consecutive quarters of declining inflation is a good thing.

Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:

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i still struggle to believe any of these numbers. what i do know is when i buy things they don't seem cheaper. it seems like this is good news and i think what trump is doing to rework global supply chains is the right move but i am not so certain we are out of the woods yet. it is a delicate balancing act and need to be careful that we don't spin to deflation.

---

You would need deflation for things to get "cheaper". On average, nothing is getting cheaper, the price is just increasing less rapidly.

If Trump can keep inflation near 2.0% per year and push unemployment up just a little bit, the Fed should be forced to lower interest rates in order to fulfill its dual mandate. If they don't, then it's just evidence that Powell is purely partisan.

Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:

---

i still struggle to believe any of these numbers. what i do know is when i buy things they don't seem cheaper. it seems like this is good news and i think what trump is doing to rework global supply chains is the right move but i am not so certain we are out of the woods yet. it is a delicate balancing act and need to be careful that we don't spin to deflation.

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All I know is that Blue Bell just went up to $9.50 a half gallon at my local grocery store. Inflation has done what the great Blue Bell Famine of 2015 couldn't.... I'm buying more store brand ice cream.

Science Denier said:

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samurai_science said:

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Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:

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i still struggle to believe any of these numbers. what i do know is when i buy things they don't seem cheaper. it seems like this is good news and i think what trump is doing to rework global supply chains is the right move but i am not so certain we are out of the woods yet. it is a delicate balancing act and need to be careful that we don't spin to deflation.

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Prices of items will never reduce a lot unless something bad happens.

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Unless you consider gasoline an item. Gasoline is going down, and it's a good thing.

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So are eggs...

Heineken-Ashi said:

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LMCane said:

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Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:

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i still struggle to believe any of these numbers. what i do know is when i buy things they don't seem cheaper. it seems like this is good news and i think what trump is doing to rework global supply chains is the right move but i am not so certain we are out of the woods yet. it is a delicate balancing act and need to be careful that we don't spin to deflation.

---

You do realize that in a capitalist country with inflation the prices are NOT going to come down.

they are only going to RISE LESS.

else you need to be hoping for DEFLATION- which is actually worse for the economy.

---

Deflation is actually badly needed. It's the ONLY thing that will bring balance back between the income classes. It's the only thing that will make housing more affordable.

What people usually root for is for the FED to ease, which actually EXPANDS the money supply, crushes purchasing power, but makes borrowing cheap. In this scenario, you can stretch your affordability through leverage, but everything you have to buy with cash becomes more expensive.

Yes, deflation would come coupled with a recession, possibly a depression. But we are never going back to a healthy economy with a healthy dollar without it. Short term pain for long term gain is the ideal scenario. But nobody wants the short term pain. And the people with the most to lose during the short term pain are the ones at the top making all the decisions.

---

deflation is regressive. It greatly increases the debt load for those holding debt. (which also includes our country). it would be in every way terrible.

LMCane said:

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Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:

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i still struggle to believe any of these numbers. what i do know is when i buy things they don't seem cheaper. it seems like this is good news and i think what trump is doing to rework global supply chains is the right move but i am not so certain we are out of the woods yet. it is a delicate balancing act and need to be careful that we don't spin to deflation.

---

You do realize that in a capitalist country with inflation the prices are NOT going to come down.

they are only going to RISE LESS.

else you need to be hoping for DEFLATION- which is actually worse for the economy.

---

exactly, look at the history of the CPI vs the PPI. CPI never recedes. Its why PPI is a better indicator than CPI despite everyones focus on the CPI.

hamean02 said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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LMCane said:

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Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:

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i still struggle to believe any of these numbers. what i do know is when i buy things they don't seem cheaper. it seems like this is good news and i think what trump is doing to rework global supply chains is the right move but i am not so certain we are out of the woods yet. it is a delicate balancing act and need to be careful that we don't spin to deflation.

---

You do realize that in a capitalist country with inflation the prices are NOT going to come down.

they are only going to RISE LESS.

else you need to be hoping for DEFLATION- which is actually worse for the economy.

---

Deflation is actually badly needed. It's the ONLY thing that will bring balance back between the income classes. It's the only thing that will make housing more affordable.

What people usually root for is for the FED to ease, which actually EXPANDS the money supply, crushes purchasing power, but makes borrowing cheap. In this scenario, you can stretch your affordability through leverage, but everything you have to buy with cash becomes more expensive.

Yes, deflation would come coupled with a recession, possibly a depression. But we are never going back to a healthy economy with a healthy dollar without it. Short term pain for long term gain is the ideal scenario. But nobody wants the short term pain. And the people with the most to lose during the short term pain are the ones at the top making all the decisions.

---

deflation is regressive. It greatly increases the debt load for those holding debt. (which also includes our country). it would be in every way terrible.

---

It does not increase the debt load. It's opportunity cost. The dollars you spend paying a loan during deflation deprive you of the opportunity of using that strong dollar right now on goods and services.

Science Denier said:

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But tariffs ALWAYS cause inflation because they are dollar-for-dollar passed on to consumers.

Those numbers MUST be wrong.

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What tariffs? They've mostly not been implemented and those that are are just starting to take effect in the economy, let alone hit lagging metrics.

All the tariff haters must be sad.

japantiger said:

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But but but.....the Fed and Swamp experts told me inflation and recession were happening ...

Everything the legacy media and democrats say is a lie ... Everything

Over Mother's Day Trump:
Trade deal with GB
Trade deal with China
Prescription drug cut 60% - 90%
Hamas US citizen hostage released
India-Pakiatan cease fire
Houthis stop shooting at ships

Democrats:
Broke into illegal alien detention center and got arrested
Protested against White South African immigrants
Complained we got a free plane

---

That is a pretty GD good week. Dems please keep doing the dumbass things you have been doing

Complaining about white migrants, will play very well to white people in both parties. GREAT way to lose the suburban white lady vote

samurai_science said:

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Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:

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i still struggle to believe any of these numbers. what i do know is when i buy things they don't seem cheaper. it seems like this is good news and i think what trump is doing to rework global supply chains is the right move but i am not so certain we are out of the woods yet. it is a delicate balancing act and need to be careful that we don't spin to deflation.

---

Prices of items will never reduce a lot unless something bad happens.

---

I think we will see car pricing go down a bit, along with certain groceries. Soda will not be able to survive at $10 a damn 12 pack. Car lots are full and the manufactures will not take them back, at least the last time I checked on it

Cheap crap from Amazon and Walmart will stay cheap, especially with the trade deal in place for China, and companies sourcing elsewhere

FireAg said:

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Logos Stick said:

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FireAg said:

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That's now two consecutive months where inflation numbers were cooler than expected, correct?

---

The annual rate has dropped every month since Trump took office.

---

#orangemanwinning

It's going to be disappointing to some that tariffs did not cause inflation to skyrocket as some were predicting…

---

Tariffs can't cause both inflation and be a tax at the same time. These people need to decide which one it is.

Taxes take money out of circulation, which will reduce spending.

In order to cause inflation, you have to have more money in circulation and increased spending.

4 said:

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FireAg said:

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Logos Stick said:

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FireAg said:

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That's now two consecutive months where inflation numbers were cooler than expected, correct?

---

The annual rate has dropped every month since Trump took office.

---

#orangemanwinning

It's going to be disappointing to some that tariffs did not cause inflation to skyrocket as some were predicting…

---

Tariffs can't cause both inflation and be a tax at the same time. These people need to decide which one it is.

Taxes take money out of circulation, which will reduce spending.

In order to cause inflation, you have to have more money in circulation and increased spending.

---

The argument is that government is causing the inflation, thus it's a tax.

Of course, since we have no inflation and the tariffs have already peaked and are coming down, there won't be any inflation. But we will have government revenue with no cost to US citizens, so there is that.

japantiger said:

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But but but.....the Fed and Swamp experts told me inflation and recession were happening ...

Everything the legacy media and democrats say is a lie ... Everything

Over Mother's Day Trump:
Trade deal with GB
Trade deal with China
Prescription drug cut 60% - 90%
Hamas US citizen hostage released
India-Pakiatan cease fire
Houthis stop shooting at ships

Democrats:
Broke into illegal alien detention center and got arrested
Protested against White South African immigrants
Complained we got a free plane

---

Mucho winning! Poor sad little betas.

Per the report:

Gasoline and grocery prices have improved.

Eating out still high - 3.9% annualized
Natural gas and electricity spiked
Rents still an issue - 4% annualized

Core inflation at 2.8% annualized

Used cars down 0.5%. But expected to jump with tariffs on new cars in coming months pushing more demand to used.