I'm trying to steelman our current position. Based on what Marco Rubio said, it seems our stated reason to extract mineral and other income from Ukraine is to:

- strengthen Ukraine's position at the negotiating table
- increase US incentive to reach an agreement
- provide a "type" of security guarantee in the form of US assets on the ground in the future
- Putin will not dare cross President Trump

If we read this the way it seems to be presented, this essentially creates a US-vassal state in Ukraine, where we absolutely do have a vested (economic) interest in a new, ongoing status quo.

I have a couple of problems squaring this with the discussions though. I'll say President Trump uses a kind of chaos speed jiu jitsu when negotiating - nobody seems to know what he is and isn't serious about - so this all may well be intentional. But here's the dissonance:

- it seems to be pretty clear the mineral rights etc. are for payment for past aid, not future
- the US seems to have avoided explicit security guarantees
- this would seem to actually increase the perception of Ukraine as a US satellite which is the claimed casus belli for Russia
- this would also seem to increase the chance of future conflict in the case of a weaker US president
- I don't really understand why we would extract such weighty concessions - what really look like war reparations - out of Ukraine, who is not the aggressor in this conflict

I'll summarize and let anyone explain it to me: if Ukraine becoming a non-Russian puppet state by way of color revolution was so egregiously a violation of Russian security, how is Ukraine becoming an explicit US economic interest not moreso? How does this not increase tensions between Russia and the US?

Moving to a transactional negotiation vs. a war is the objective I think. This is simpler then vs. us sending them ATACMS etc. to shoot at Russians.

An economic contractual relationship would outlast the current government, and allow the negotiation to proceed on the basis of a similar mineral deal as well (but different, in terms of cooperation etc) with Russia to end the **** show.

I don't think this actually addresses the underlying issue. Loss of Ukraine as a key buffer of the west for Russia is the explicit stated reason for this conflict - stripping aside other geopolitical imperatives. The example always given is "what if Russia installed a friendly government in Mexico?" etc.

Deep US economic ties seem to be much more of a long term security threat than a pro-western ruling regime.

If Putin knew he would be 3 years in with a stalemate, do you think he would have invaded.

He has plenty of incentive to get out now except he needs to save face. That will include some concessions, but it will also include some plausible excuses to pull back. A non military US presence is such an excuse.

PA24 said:

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I don't think Ukraine has the commercial minerals they claim they have and that is why Z wouldn't sign. That is fraud and he knows it.

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I don't think Trump cares. He just wants to close a deal that makes himself look like a winner.

PA24 said:

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I don't think Ukraine has the commercial minerals they claim they have and that is why Z wouldn't sign. That is fraud and he knows it.

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I don't think he's that honest.

What stops Europe from taking our place on negotiation for the minerals and provide more military support for security? Can the US negotiate out of the deal?

agz win said:

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What stops Europe from taking our place on negotiation for the minerals and provide more military support for security? Can the US negotiate out of the deal?

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They have no military7

The deal is a sham without a security guarantee. Trump doesn't want to give it. Trump is just trying to give Putin an out for now.

Z wants the guarantee because he knows Putin can't be trusted. During the press conference a reporter asked what happens if Putin goes in and Trump said he won't because of the agreement like that gives any comfort.

It's like believing nobody will steal your crap because it's illegal to steal.

Think Afghanistan. Trump negotiates a withdrawal. The executions that's the other guys problem.

The worst thing that can happen is some private U.S. company is given the rights and profits from it but the U.S. taxpayers fund their security.

Z wants security guarantee
trump wants Nobel peace prize
Putin needs an out for now.

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Loss of Ukraine as a key buffer of the west for Russia is the explicit stated reason for this conflict - stripping aside other geopolitical imperatives.

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Well, I don't agree with this premise, so not much to debate/discuss. I don't really care one iota who runs Kiev or the Donbas, and fewer than 5 percent of Americans could find Crimea or the Donetsk People's Republic on a map.

SA68AG said:

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PA24 said:

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I don't think Ukraine has the commercial minerals they claim they have and that is why Z wouldn't sign. That is fraud and he knows it.

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I don't think Trump cares. He just wants to close a deal that makes himself look like a winner.

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Exactly. Trump wants the win. 4 years from now if Russia invades again that's somebody else's problem. Whatever economic gain is to be had from the minerals wouldn't be enough for the U.S. to defend it. You're trusting Russia not to do it despite potential weak president in the future.

agz win said:

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What stops Europe from taking our place on negotiation for the minerals and provide more military support for security? Can the US negotiate out of the deal?

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Last chart I saw US is like 70 something percent of total NATO spending on military. Europe has next to nothing

SA68AG said:

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PA24 said:

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I don't think Ukraine has the commercial minerals they claim they have and that is why Z wouldn't sign. That is fraud and he knows it.

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I don't think Trump cares. He just wants to close a deal that makes himself look like a winner.

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Do you even breathe air?

This is simple. Do not over think it.

Putin has no reason to stop. He can keep pressing until he gets over thrown by his political adversary's. Russia has nukes. Russia is rearming and can (unless something internally changes) keep throwing the Russian and NK soldiers into the meat grinder for years to come.

Ukr is not more efficient at killing Russians and are taking losses everyday. At some point Ukr will be broken by Russia unless there are additional boots on the ground to help with numbers.

Trump can't persuade Putin to stop by being antagonistic. The promise of building an economic alliance allows for the US to provide protection by having an economic stake in Ukr. This allows the US to not have to be antagonistic by threatening military escalation. It is a win win for everyone.

Zelenskyy has been through an awful lot. I get how he could come off the rails. Trump was right to toss him out of the WH. It is just unfortunate, but it is salvageable.

I would hope the next time Zelenskyy is back in the Oval Office he is wearing a suit and both sides show extreme humility.

But the notion that Trump doesn't car is stupid and shallow. Sorry to be so blunt.

We do not need any US presence in Ukraine. They can Ship us their oil for repayment. Let the Europeans get involved with their supposed rare earth minerals. They can't be trusted.

The most corrupt country in Europe and we need to GTFO and stay out.

FCBlitz said:

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SA68AG said:

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PA24 said:

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I don't think Ukraine has the commercial minerals they claim they have and that is why Z wouldn't sign. That is fraud and he knows it.

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I don't think Trump cares. He just wants to close a deal that makes himself look like a winner.

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Do you even breathe air?

This is simple. Do not over think it.

Putin has no reason to stop. He can keep pressing until he gets over thrown by his political adversary's. Russia has nukes. Russia is rearming and can (unless something internally changes) keep throwing the Russian and NK soldiers into the meat grinder for years to come.

Ukr is not more efficient at killing Russians and are taking losses everyday. At some point Ukr will be broken by Russia unless there are additional boots on the ground to help with numbers.

Trump can't persuade Putin to stop by being antagonistic. The promise of building an economic alliance allows for the US to provide protection by having an economic stake in Ukr. This allows the US to not have to be antagonistic by threatening military escalation. It is a win win for everyone.

Zelenskyy has been through an awful lot. I get how he could come off the rails. Trump was right to toss him out of the WH. It is just unfortunate, but it is salvageable.

I would hope the next time Zelenskyy is back in the Oval Office he is wearing a suit and both sides show extreme humility.

But the notion that Trump doesn't car is stupid and shallow. Sorry to be so blunt.

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I think Trump cares a lot about making a deal. I don't think he cares if the mineral interests are as substantial as being claimed.

Part of this is Trump wants the rest of Europe/NATO to step up with providing security. He knows as soon as the US says we'll provide security those chicken****s won't do anything.

Oddly enough CNN's Kaitlin Collins asked a question during the Trump-Vance-Zelenskyy meeting that teed this exact issue up for Trump to drive home to Z. Instead of seizing the opportunity, Trump made a joke about CNN going under - LULZ I know, he GOT her!!!

A couple of minutes later the reported from Poland asked the question about trusting Putin and the rest is history.

I really question how valuable these minerals are


Are they proven and accessible?
Do we have that much demand?
Are there cheaper safer sources?

Would we depend on the Ukrainians mining and shipping minerals to us? Would we spend Billions with our machinery and employees in their country? Hell no to both.

They can sell their minerals/ oil and pay in cash. Again, the most corrupt country in Europe for decades. No way we want any operations in their country. Surely Trump realizes that and this is just part of the negotiating plan.

I know growing up, it was drilled into our brain non-stop that "USSR evil", and I would never label Putin a "good" person. But what has Russia done since the Cold War that makes them enemy #1 worldwide? I mean, what things that are worse than anything our own government hasn't done?

This isn't me trying to stand up for Putin or Russia. Just looking for someone to educate me why I should hate them so much and be so fearful that they're about to take over all of Europe, and then on to take over the US?

Trying to steelman this - in the end, if the "deal" is
-Russia gets the land they've taken
-Ukraine gets firm alignment with the west and a Euro-patrolled DMZ
-US gets mineral development
-Euros get buffer and some mineral development

It seems like nobody is truly happy (great) but the US is *still* on the hook to defend its interests (not great). More interests in Ukraine mean more future potential conflict with Russia.

I can't figure out how this actually addresses the underlying triggers for the conflict… it seems like it makes them worse, but also ratchets up the deterrence aspect.

Trump wants the US to stop sending billions to Ukraine and wants billions coming into the US from Ukraine. Also peace in Europe/Ukraine/Russia is good for business and humanity.

As far as putting Americans in harms way, the OP makes a damn good point. The mineral deal would put Americans in harms way. But we could get the Hell outta there to if war breaks out again.

Then it isn't actual deterrence, and Zelensky is right.

Is there a particular reason to seriously consider that Russia felt threatened and that it's not just an excuse? It's not like there is any possible future with a Russia without nato neighbors.

Zelensky is right but he doesn't have a choice. As Trump kept saying, "he doesn't have the cards"

If he doesn't do the deal, the eventual destruction of Ukraine continues but quicker without US support.

He can do the deal and there's a chance that if the U.S. is more involved, Russia stops because they don't want to risk pissing us off. Zelensky wants it to be explicit but Trump is suggesting your security guarantee is implicit. And that really depends on how economic it is and who's president in the future.

When it comes to Israel/Palestine, the saying is "if the Palestinians put their guns down, there will be peace. If the Israelis put down their weapons there will be genocide.

if the Russians put their guns down, there will be peace. If the Ukrainians put their weapons down, no more Ukraine.

It's make you think why nobody is demanding Russia put their weapons down. Well it's because they got nukes. The lesson is never give up your nukes or rely on somebody else for your security because you're always at the whim of their benevolence.

I'm trying to steelman their argument too.

I don't personally believe it. They want the Bessarabian and Swalki gaps.

This whole thing is screwed up and there is a lot of blame to go around.

Russia broke many agreements. Ukraine broke many agreements. Even the US broke agreements in that we guaranteed security if the Ukrainians gave up their nukes. We also agree multiple times to not expand NATO Eastward and we kept doing so. I am sympathetic with the argument that any country should be able to join if they meet the requirements and the democratically elected government requests a seat at the table. Nonetheless, we did agree not to do something and we kept doing it anyway.

Russia is corrupt. Ukraine is corrupt. The U.S. (i.e, Bidens, Nuland) has been corrupt. I say all that because that is the danger of a security agreement that Zelenskyy is demanding. Trump is correct to not give in on this. If we agree to put troops into combat should tensions flare in the future, who can we confirm who is truly at blame. Just look at Donbass and the shelling and killing that was going on there years before this current war went hot. I honestly have no idea who was in the right with that whole situation because it is so muddy. I, for one, don't want my sons pledged to a war with no side has a clear cut moral superiority.

Obviously Zelenskyy doesn't give a damn about what the USA has done for Ukraine, he only cares about what the USA will do next for Ukraine. To Hell with him! $350 billion down the drain but no more to Ukraine. I would let someone else handle peace talks too. Not another penny to Ukraine. But let's find out what happened to our money. Who actually stole money l, who got kickbacks and let's make it very public and prosecute the guilty.

Update; little sweater guy went on an unproductive tweet storm which only further ensures the parties stay away from even the negotiating table.

Quote:

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ZELENSKY: We are ready to sign the minerals agreement, and it will be the first step toward security guarantees. But it's not enough, and we need more than just that. A ceasefire without security guarantees is dangerous for Ukraine. We've been fighting for three years, and Ukrainian people need to know that America is on our side.

I cannot change Ukraine's position on Russia. The Russians are killing us. Russia is the enemy, and that's the reality we face. Ukraine wants peace, but it must be a just and lasting peace. For that, we need to be strong at the negotiation table. Peace can only come when we know we have security guarantees, when our army is strong, and our partners are with us.

We want peace. That's why I came to the United States, and visited President Trump. The deal on minerals is just a first step toward security guarantees and getting closer to peace. Our situation is tough, but we can't just stop fighting and not having guarantees that Putin will not return tomorrow.

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Again, this is so counterproductive. Ukraine is not in a position to make public demands like this. Whether you agree or disagree with Trump, he does not see great strategic importance for the United States in this war. He does not believe Russia will roll through NATO-backed Europe and across the Atlantic. Because of that, continuing to try to play hardball with him is a losing strategy.

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The minerals deal is off the table the WH has said. He kept going (more at the redstate link). Concluding graf:

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The suggestion that the US hasn't stood firmly enough on Ukraine's side, even after giving somewhere in the range of $200 billion in aid while also enacting sanctions on Russia, is not going to be a good thing for relations with the White House. In short, Zelensky needs to stop talking because Trump does not respond to public pressure like this. On the contrary, it causes him to recoil, and like it or not, America doesn't have another presidential election for almost four years.

Ukraine needs a new diplomatic strategy, and it needs it in a hurry. Joe Biden is not around anymore, and Zelensky needs to accept that if he is to garner anything positive for his country. Tweet storms just reiterating his demands aren't going to accomplish anything.

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This again seems like the semi-coherent rantings of a substance abuser, imho.

Update: it appears to be true the pro-war Democrats advised Zelensky to reject the deal a third time an hour before he went to the White House. NY Post:

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A common criticism of Volodymyr Zelensky's disastrous Friday performance in the Oval Office is that he failed to read the room.
Actually, the Ukrainian president did read a room but it was the wrong room.

Before meeting Trump, Zelensky met with anti-Trump Democrats who advised him to reject the terms of the mineral deal the president was offering, according to Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.).

"Just finished a meeting with President Zelensky here in Washington. He confirmed that the Ukrainian people will not support a fake peace agreement where Putin gets everything he wants and there are no security arrangements for Ukraine," Murphy's office posted on X at 11:15 a.m. Friday.

He attached a picture of Zelensky at a conference table, with Murphy seated on the opposite side.

Forty minutes later, Zelensky arrived at the White House, where Trump met his car, smiled, shook his hand and walked him into the Oval Office.

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Logan Act, obviously. Thune/Johnson need to remove any congress critters involved from any committees as well.

nortex97 said:

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Update: it appears to be true the pro-war Democrats advised Zelensky to reject the deal a third time an hour before he went to the White House. NY Post:

Quote:

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A common criticism of Volodymyr Zelensky's disastrous Friday performance in the Oval Office is that he failed to read the room.
Actually, the Ukrainian president did read a room but it was the wrong room.

Before meeting Trump, Zelensky met with anti-Trump Democrats who advised him to reject the terms of the mineral deal the president was offering, according to Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.).

"Just finished a meeting with President Zelensky here in Washington. He confirmed that the Ukrainian people will not support a fake peace agreement where Putin gets everything he wants and there are no security arrangements for Ukraine," Murphy's office posted on X at 11:15 a.m. Friday.

He attached a picture of Zelensky at a conference table, with Murphy seated on the opposite side.

Forty minutes later, Zelensky arrived at the White House, where Trump met his car, smiled, shook his hand and walked him into the Oval Office.

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Logan Act, obviously. Thune/Johnson need to remove any congress critters involved from any committees as well.

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So we have members of Congress meeting with foreign leaders expressly to undermine the president? Yeah, thats illegal.

I think folks are missing a bigger world view on the rare earths push by Trump and staff.

China currently controls almost all rare earth minerals. We need to secure alternate sources of minerals. If Ukraine is sitting on a ton of metals we should make a deal to get them to market and loosen China's controlling position

The plus is that it helps drive peace between Ukraine and Russia by default. US heavily invested gives the US more of an "interest" in preventing Russia from continuing their aggression. And Russia now knows they aren't just going to be fighting Ukraine if they continue.

Take a bigger view and you might see the "smart" in it that it really is.