knoxtom said:
So to answer the OPs question, Zelensky did one thing which could be viewed as provocation for the invasion. When Russia took Crimea Zelensky did something that could be viewed as cruel and something Putin pledged to fix.
Crimea has no water supply at all. There is no river feeding the area, no reservoir, no significant rainfall. Water WAS supplied to Crimea through a concrete canal coming from Ukraine. When Russia took Crimea, Zelensky filled this canal with concrete and shut it off. He gave a big finger to the mostly innocent residents of Crimea.
Afterwards, Putin was trucking in water for the residents and blamed Zelensky for the deaths and suffering the Crimeans endured.
A lot of this falls on Obama for failing to respond to the Crimean invasion. Russia took Crimea for the oil and nothing more and Obama should have stopped them, but he ignored it. Since Zelensky couldn't do anything to stop Russia back then (this was pre-drone) he did a kinda cruel thing to the Crimean population. Putin of course blames Zelensky for responding to his oil grab.
Thanks for this.
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The NATO thing is a news blurb that wouldn't have ever happened. This was discussed many times within the COG and with Obama, Trump1, and Biden. All agreed that NATO was not accepting Ukraine because NATO has the defense pact and they were all worried it would start WWIII as everyone knew Putin was coming after Donbras and the new Ukrainian oil fields. You see... Ukraine has enough oil to start a new oil nation state. They have Iran, Iraq, Kuwait levels of reserves. Putin owns Russia's oil and he doesn't want new competition, he wants it for himself.
Ukraine is the bread basket of Eastern Europe, and a good chunk of Africa. Don't forget that. I am sure that Putin wants all of Ukraine. If Putin gets all of Ukraine, Trump has failed.
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Putin wants a few other things out of Ukraine. He wants control of the german pipeline. He wants to have his defensive border with Poland moved to the space between the mountains near Lviv. Tanks cannot cross the mountains north of there or south of there so his border with the NATO countries will shrink by 1500 miles and be WAY more defensible. Ukraine is hard to defend, the Poland gap is not. Putin wants ALL of Ukraine and he will eventually get it if we pull out or "broker" a deal.
I don't believe you on the bold part. That's like, just your opinion, man.
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When it all started pretty much everyone knew the eventual solution would be that Donbras and the Russian sympathizers would be switching to Russia and Ukraine would keep the rest of their country. Now it looks like Trump is making a trade of more of Ukraine in exchange for Putin ignoring our grab at Greenland and the Canal.
WHAT? Pure speculation. How much money do you want to bet that this will not actually happen? This is pure fantasy.
VIVA WOLVARINES!!!
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This stuff is ALWAYS about the cash. Putin wants the oil cash for himself. Trump doesn't care about Ukraine in any way shape or form, he wants the Greenland resources. Biden wanted to partner with Zelensky and have American oil companies do the work on the Ukrainian fields. Obama didn't realize how much oil we are talking about here and ignored it. Cash, Cash, Cash.
Once you get to a certain state, it is not always about the cash. Twitter at $44B was a bad, bad deal if it was all about the cash, for example.
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The stick in the spokes in all of these money grabs came from Zelensky's rapid drone development. He wasn't supposed to stop the Russians but he almost overnight rendered their military superiority obsolete with drone attacks. When all is said and done, no matter who eventually gets the cash, the big lesson from all of this is that Zelensky made every other weapon except nukes obsolete overnight. Planes, armies, navies, tanks, everything is worthless now because he used drones so well. 100 years from now the Ukrainian invasion will be looked at as the day the world changed. There are no more strong military nations as a single terror group with mid level AI and 1000 drones can take out any billion dollar aircraft carrier they want. A tank battalion cannot stand against 1000 drones anymore. This invasion changed it all.
I agree with you that modern warefare has changed dramatically thanks to this invasion. I find the topic fascinating. But, much of the failure of the invasion was Putin's own hubris. He employed the tactics that the US employed against Iraq, twice, when those tactics were outdated. He stretched his supply lines too thin, moved too fast, and showed his weakness compared to US military.
Very good post with some really crazy positions mixed in. The best lies are always a sandwich of truth, lie, truth.
No one wants Putin to get all of Ukraine, and Trump will not trade Ukraine for the Panama Canal and Greenland. Very silly war-porn fantasy stuff.