Ag_of_08 said:

---

Unless wages start to keep up and inflation goes down, yes they will be unfortunately

---

Nah. The same demographic phenomenon that is going to suppress housing costs is going to boost wages. boomers are exiting the workforce at much higher numbers than Z is entering it. That has to lead to rising wages. We aren't going to see a slow down in deficit spending until the boomers are substantially all gone because from where we are today we have no choice but to print our way through their retirement. But the wage increases are going to happen as well. They will offset each other some but we will still see real wage growth over the next 10-15 years as the younger boomers enter retirement.

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

tysker said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

Buck Turgidson said:

---

Psycho Bunny said:

---

Buck Turgidson said:

---

Mr. Fingerbottom said:

---

All by design

Deflation coming soon

& no that's not a good thing

---

Not a good thing if you are a seller. People sitting on cash might like it (until their cash is spent).

---

Why I'm sitting on gold and silver. Hope for the best, be ready for the absolute worse.

---

Gold and silver are an inflation hedge, but will not help in a deflationary period.

---

Correct. That's because we value them in dollars. So while they are actually pretty stable in value, moving up and down based on supply and demand, in dollars, they would be falling during a deflationary period.

---

We value everything in USD, so we should be really trying to find assets whose value will be reduced less by deflation pressures. Historically, RE, gold, AAA bonds, I-Bonds, and bank/energy/consumer good stocks that paid dividends fit that bill. I think the concern is some of the more levered bank/energy/consumer good companies may be wiped out if deflation happens fast enough, and you don't know which ones they will be until it happens. (Think Enron, SVB, HTZ)

---

I agree in theory. But go look at historical gold charts. Price moves higher in general as the money supply expands. It will be drop as the money supply shrinks. You might feel safer in gold than in stocks, but is losing 40% really much better than losing 60%? The safest place to be during true deflation is cold

---

What banks would be the safest to hold large sums of a person's money?
Local banks like a Frost or a worldwide bank like PNC?

DP

ETS

aggiehawg said:

---

Mr. Fingerbottom said:

---

AggieVictor10 said:

---

Trump will fix it

---

Of course


But the interim will be bad for many



Thanks establishment

---

There was some pain for awhile when Reagan came in and began to clean up the mess. It wasn't only Carter's mess, however. Both LBJ and Nixon contributed heavily to creating the environments.

---

Lot easier to clean up back then though.

PA24 said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

tysker said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

Buck Turgidson said:

---

Psycho Bunny said:

---

Buck Turgidson said:

---

Mr. Fingerbottom said:

---

All by design

Deflation coming soon

& no that's not a good thing

---

Not a good thing if you are a seller. People sitting on cash might like it (until their cash is spent).

---

Why I'm sitting on gold and silver. Hope for the best, be ready for the absolute worse.

---

Gold and silver are an inflation hedge, but will not help in a deflationary period.

---

Correct. That's because we value them in dollars. So while they are actually pretty stable in value, moving up and down based on supply and demand, in dollars, they would be falling during a deflationary period.

---

We value everything in USD, so we should be really trying to find assets whose value will be reduced less by deflation pressures. Historically, RE, gold, AAA bonds, I-Bonds, and bank/energy/consumer good stocks that paid dividends fit that bill. I think the concern is some of the more levered bank/energy/consumer good companies may be wiped out if deflation happens fast enough, and you don't know which ones they will be until it happens. (Think Enron, SVB, HTZ)

---

I agree in theory. But go look at historical gold charts. Price moves higher in general as the money supply expands. It will be drop as the money supply shrinks. You might feel safer in gold than in stocks, but is losing 40% really much better than losing 60%? The safest place to be during true deflation is cold

---

What banks would be the safest to hold large sums of a person's money?
Local banks like a Frost or a worldwide bank like PNC?

---

Going to have to do your research. Would start by looking at call reports. You want low CRE exposure, low provisions for credit losses, and you don't want a bank who tapped significantly into BTFP and is now increasing borrowing from the discount window. Lastly, if they are offering money market returns above 5%, it's because they NEED your money, not because they are generous.

There's a service that has been researching every single public bank in the country and ranking them according to safety. It's a paid service. I have not subscribed and am not affiliated. But I do read all of their free articles. They dive into balance sheets pretty in depth. SaferBankingResearch - Identifying some of the strongest banks

Here's an example of a fairly detailed article that shows you how they assess a bank's risks using First & People's in Kentucky. Simply reading their articles can help you determine what to look for.

Will Shadow Banking Bankrupt Your Bank? - SaferBankingResearch

DallasAg 94 said:

---

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

DallasAg 94 said:

---

I look at our Insurance renewal... we're sub 3 on Interest rate... there is no chance people are going to buy houses.

Our escrow is now 144% of our P&I.

Part of it is the value of the house has more than doubled since we bought it... so the Taxes have grown rapidly. And then, if you want to be Insured for the full value... well, you'll Insured for twice what you paid.

The Squeeze is on.

---

The house doesn't need to be insured to the property value, just the cost to rebuild. My in-laws place has absolutely skyrocketed in value strictly because of the land value, so the rate of insurance increase for them has not been nearly the same as the total property valuation.

---

Technically, doesn't the Insurance just need to cover the loan?!

---

No.

In 1978 we had a 16.5% rate, I had friends at 18-19%+ rates

You also had rotary phones and believed in the moon landing

What is your point?

And pong, Pac-Man, ms Pac-Man, Atari, etc.

kb2001 said:

---

Deflation can spiral and quickly, all non-liquid assets devalue, and the real cost of debt increases. If you have debt, this can be crushing. Most companies carry debt, this is where the real pain comes in. Once jobs start getting cut, and salaries start dropping, anybody with a mortgage or a car payment could quickly find themselves in over their head. We've seen expectations for car loans get insane the last decade, even going out to 8 year loans, which is crazy.

The risks of deflation are substantial, and our economic system is very scared of this happening. This is why it's designed to maintain 1-2% rate of inflation, that is the target. For better or worse, this is the system we live in.

---

People looking forward to deflation have never experienced it.

Locked in on our first mortgage in 93 at 7.375. Loan officer congratulated me on getting such a great rate.

Burdizzo said:

---

kb2001 said:

---

Deflation can spiral and quickly, all non-liquid assets devalue, and the real cost of debt increases. If you have debt, this can be crushing. Most companies carry debt, this is where the real pain comes in. Once jobs start getting cut, and salaries start dropping, anybody with a mortgage or a car payment could quickly find themselves in over their head. We've seen expectations for car loans get insane the last decade, even going out to 8 year loans, which is crazy.

The risks of deflation are substantial, and our economic system is very scared of this happening. This is why it's designed to maintain 1-2% rate of inflation, that is the target. For better or worse, this is the system we live in.

---

People looking forward to deflation have never experienced it.

---

Only people older than 91 have experienced it outside of 1 year blips in 1949 and 2009. And those people would have been babies when it was going on.

When I graduated from high school, mortgage rates were 16% and home prices had risen suddenly. Bought my first piece of raw land about two years out of A&M….guy owner financed it at 8.25% on a seven-year full amortization. Felt darn lucky to get those terms. Those payments consumed 50% of my then take home. The ladies didn't care much for my beater truck and spartan lifestyle. Most of them said "adios amigo, please don't be wasting my time." That mortgage on land which did not live on helped me avoid some very superficial women.

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

Burdizzo said:

---

kb2001 said:

---

Deflation can spiral and quickly, all non-liquid assets devalue, and the real cost of debt increases. If you have debt, this can be crushing. Most companies carry debt, this is where the real pain comes in. Once jobs start getting cut, and salaries start dropping, anybody with a mortgage or a car payment could quickly find themselves in over their head. We've seen expectations for car loans get insane the last decade, even going out to 8 year loans, which is crazy.

The risks of deflation are substantial, and our economic system is very scared of this happening. This is why it's designed to maintain 1-2% rate of inflation, that is the target. For better or worse, this is the system we live in.

---

People looking forward to deflation have never experienced it.

---

Only people older than 91 have experienced it outside of 1 year blips in 1949 and 2009. And those people would have been babies when it was going on.

---

But we can observe the Japanese.

Muy said:

---

Empty nester and sold the last house for over 2x what I paid 9 years earlier. Bought a smaller single story 40-year old home and completely remodeled it and invested the rest of what I made on the other house. Couldn't be happier with the smaller house, lower taxes and utility costs.

---

I thought we were going to do that, but now I'm not so sure. I'm recently retired and still have three high schoolers. Even when they leave home, the kids and my wife have made it clear we must keep the big house so they can all visit and bring the future grandkids. Oddly, that's exactly what my parents did - bought the largest house they ever owned at 70 and had everybody over a lot, including sleepovers with all 5 grandkids at the same time. I always expected to get a little house in an age restricted subdivision once the kids left.