YouBet said:

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aTmAg said:

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And DOGE can't do anything without the consent of the RINOs in congress. I expect DOGE to last a year tops as when Musk and Vivek leave in frustration.

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This. Everyone is putting a lot of Hope in DOGE. Hope is not a strategy as someone famously said. Congress has no desire to cut spending.

DOGE has no power other than the bully pulpit so it will take massive, unprecedented social media X pressure by Elon and Vivek to get anything done at all. At most, we may get some Discretionary cuts but they will be rounding errors.

Our deficit this last year was $1.8T. Discretionary spending is $1.8T. So, you have to cut ALL Discretionary just to break even on the year and then you have to maintain that discipline for many years to get the debt down.

We are f'ed and everyone is delusional about what DOGE can and will do.

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Are you Daniel Horowitz from the Blaze and Conservative Review Podcast?

You sound 100 percent like him on this issue. Word for word.

Daniel Horowitz is probably the best policy guy on the whole American Right. Sadly Horowitz and Steve Deace are on the out with Trump after the primary because they both backed Desantis big time.

I am a Desantis supporter but I still voted for Trump in the Texas primary because Desantis left after coming in second in Iowa, and Haley still hadn't dropped out.

It's not an impossible task to reduce the federal government and its spending to responsible/manageable levels and balance the budget.

First, you could cut 10% of the federal workforce and almost nothing would change other than having a smaller cheaper government. There are currently 15 executive departments with multiple overlapping programs, staffing, and directors. The span of control is too large and contributes to the problem of bureaucracies existing to perpetuate themselves. Consolidate Interior and Agriculture to one, consolidate State, Defense, Veterans Affairs, and Homeland Security to one National Security department, combine commerce and labor departments, combine Transportation and Energy into one department, and combine HHS and HUD. Eliminate department of education who employs 4200 employees and spent over $80 Billion spent and did not educate anyone. Now you have 7 departments well within reasonable span of control, redundancies are eliminated and coordinated alignment of priorities are under one director.

Then un-cap social security taxes and reset rates on a lookahead basis to ensure neutral impact to budget.
Next Medicare/Medicaid - could be cut 20% by not reimbursing blatant and obvious fraud, and further shored up by increasing patient out of pocket responsibilities.
Defense spending prioritization - I'm as big a defense supporter as they come, but there is no potential conflict that needs 1500 F-35's and 10 carriers that doesn't go nuclear-we need the armed forces ready for today not Persian Gulf Gulf War III.

All of those changes can happen well within 24 months and every American who has led an organization through difficult times knows this is just the low hanging fruit.

policywonk98 said:

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YokelRidesAgain said:

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Funky Winkerbean said:

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The interest on our debt exceeds tax revenue. This means we have to print money to keep our government functioning and printed money leads to inflation.

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This isn't true, or even close to being true. US federal revenue in FY2023 was about 4.5 trillion dollars, with interest payments on the debt being about 660 billion.

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You are only partially right here and perhaps the reality is what they are talking about when it comes to talking debt bomb. I don't watch or listen to anything Blaze related so I'm unsure of context.

It's true that interest pmt on debt is not close to Fed tax revenue . Back in 21 the deficit plus interest on debt was certainly close if not over tax revenue. That deficit did go back down however.

Using FY23 paints much rosier picture on interest pmt on debt. FY23 is Oct 22 - Sep 23. We are in the middle of FY 25 at this point and we are going to pass $1T.

The scary part here is that from 2018-2023 the interest on debt doubled from 300B to your stated 660B.

This number is set to double again in less time from 2023-2026.

Our interest on debt was about 1.75% of GDP back in 2019. It's approaching 3.5% of GDP now.

Meanwhile the deficit spending continues to grow.

This entire conversation doesn't even touch what is going on with unfunded liabilities.

People need to wake up. Something radical needs to happen. DOGE won't event scratch the surface if entitlements are off the table for reform. Clinton and the 95 GOP Congress proved things can be done to start going in the right direction but 1999- 2024 showed that both GOP and Dems have a way for allowing things to go way off the rails very fast.

Radical economic growth will certainly help if it's possible, but the balance between austerity and economic growth will be tricky. Debt and Deficit spending was a manageable problem for several decades. It's now close to spiraling out of control.

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This doesn't even get half the stars his post did and is actual current reality.

Fact: There is nothing we can do to cover our annaul deficits without issuing more bonds.
Fact: Bond purchasers are signaling that they will no longer accept lower returns for buying our bonds.

What's going to happen is they are going to try QE again. This time, it's not going to work. QE is an expansion of the money supply, not from printing, but from the FED taking on more of the debt itself, keeping that higher amount of debt as its reserve requirement, and being able to loan 10x that amount back to the banks. But for that to work, there has to be demand for that new supply of money. And when the demand doesn't show up, that new supply of money gets hung around the neck of the FED and devalued taxpayer like a noose.

Nobody can predict the exact top. But it's not hard to understand conditions that lead a fall and that the fall is absolutely coming. Being prepared does not mean timing the top. It means protecting yourself in the moments that lead to the eventual top so that you aren't annihilated. The overwhelming majority have no protection. They think their equity in their house, their stock portfolio balance, their bond holdings, and entities like the broke FDIC will save them. None of those will survive.

No, they're gonna try to hit 4-6% gdp, which will have a huge impact on debt if cuts are made.

Also, anyone predicting black swans can be ignored

policywonk98 said:

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YokelRidesAgain said:

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Funky Winkerbean said:

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The interest on our debt exceeds tax revenue. This means we have to print money to keep our government functioning and printed money leads to inflation.

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This isn't true, or even close to being true. US federal revenue in FY2023 was about 4.5 trillion dollars, with interest payments on the debt being about 660 billion.

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You are only partially right here and perhaps the reality is what they are talking about when it comes to talking debt bomb. I don't watch or listen to anything Blaze related so I'm unsure of context.

It's true that interest pmt on debt is not close to Fed tax revenue . Back in 21 the deficit plus interest on debt was certainly close if not over tax revenue. That deficit did go back down however.

Using FY23 paints much rosier picture on interest pmt on debt. FY23 is Oct 22 - Sep 23. We are in the middle of FY 25 at this point and we are going to pass $1T.

The scary part here is that from 2018-2023 the interest on debt doubled from 300B to your stated 660B.

This number is set to double again in less time from 2023-2026.

Our interest on debt was about 1.75% of GDP back in 2019. It's approaching 3.5% of GDP now.

Meanwhile the deficit spending continues to grow.

This entire conversation doesn't even touch what is going on with unfunded liabilities.

People need to wake up. Something radical needs to happen. DOGE won't event scratch the surface if entitlements are off the table for reform. Clinton and the 95 GOP Congress proved things can be done to start going in the right direction but 1999- 2024 showed that both GOP and Dems have a way for allowing things to go way off the rails very fast.

Radical economic growth will certainly help if it's possible, but the balance between austerity and economic growth will be tricky. Debt and Deficit spending was a manageable problem for several decades. It's now close to spiraling out of control.

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Simpson-Bowles seems like a million years ago nowadays. I wonder if some of 'deep staters' that rejected the plan and have since left Congress wish they could go back and change their votes.

Yewenjie said:

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No, they're gonna try to hit 4-6% gdp, which will have a huge impact on debt if cuts are made.

Also, anyone predicting black swans can be ignored

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Daniel Horowitz and Steve Deace both correctly predicted the Black Swans of the George Floyd Riots and COVID. Hopefully nothing happens and we have 4 years of prosperity, but Deace and Horowitz have an excellent track record of predicting black swan events.

TheWoodlandsTxAg said:

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YouBet said:

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aTmAg said:

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And DOGE can't do anything without the consent of the RINOs in congress. I expect DOGE to last a year tops as when Musk and Vivek leave in frustration.

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This. Everyone is putting a lot of Hope in DOGE. Hope is not a strategy as someone famously said. Congress has no desire to cut spending.

DOGE has no power other than the bully pulpit so it will take massive, unprecedented social media X pressure by Elon and Vivek to get anything done at all. At most, we may get some Discretionary cuts but they will be rounding errors.

Our deficit this last year was $1.8T. Discretionary spending is $1.8T. So, you have to cut ALL Discretionary just to break even on the year and then you have to maintain that discipline for many years to get the debt down.

We are f'ed and everyone is delusional about what DOGE can and will do.

---

Are you Daniel Horowitz from the Blaze and Conservative Review Podcast?

You sound 100 percent like him on this issue. Word for word.

Daniel Horowitz is probably the best policy guy on the whole American Right. Sadly Horowitz and Steve Deace are on the out with Trump after the primary because they both backed Desantis big time.

I am a Desantis supporter but I still voted for Trump in the Texas primary because Desantis left after coming in second in Iowa, and Haley still hadn't dropped out.

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No. Actually, not sure who that is. Have heard that name but have never looked at Blaze or heard that podcast.

I'm merely looking at our current income statement + our balance sheet. Then you factor the following:

• ~55% of the populace pays nothing in income taxes and a large portion of that group actually has a negative tax rate. So, that's more than half of potential taxpayers already off the hook with zero expectations of ever having to contribute.
• "Mandatory" spending will not be cut. The chaos and revolt from that by most of the population, non-taxpayers and otherwise, would cause an immediate halt to any talk of doing it. Even many of the conservatives on here have said no to this because they "deserve theirs". Both parties have already said there will no cuts to any Mandatory spending.
• So, all that leaves you with is Discretionary spending, which again, is equal to our deficit....and obviously cutting all of Discretionary is a laughable ask.

Thus, even getting to break even is virtually impossible. It will take massive growth in tax receipts garnered through the government generally staying out of the private sector's way to offset the deficit. Can you generate an extra $2.0T per year from that once or twice? Maybe, but doubtful. Can you then continue generating enough new tax receipts every year to offset ever increasing spending? No way in hell.

We are going to ride this to collapse. All empires and nations eventually fall. We shall to and are simply closer to the end than we are to the beginning at this point.

TheWoodlandsTxAg said:

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Yewenjie said:

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No, they're gonna try to hit 4-6% gdp, which will have a huge impact on debt if cuts are made.

Also, anyone predicting black swans can be ignored

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Daniel Horowitz and Steve Deace both correctly predicted the Black Swans of the George Floyd Riots and COVID. Hopefully nothing happens and we have 4 years of prosperity, but Deace and Horowitz have an excellent track record of predicting black swan events.

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No. No they don't.

Yewenjie said:

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No, they're gonna try to hit 4-6% gdp, which will have a huge impact on debt if cuts are made.

Also, anyone predicting black swans can be ignored

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LOL! That's not going to happen, even using Obama's revised GDP definition.

Everything you posted in your bullet points is spot on.

We need to amend the tax code to where the bottom wage earners all pay at least a net 10% Fed income tax rate. Everyone. No exceptions. This will make them at least pretend to care about government spending

Do that and eliminate Medicaid and you have almost eradicated the deficit. Add in growth and we have begun to right the ship.

None of that should be controversial when the alternative is a complete collapse.

As the USD continues to surge, it increases the cost of debt here, and around the world. The Fed will likely work to weaken the dollar behind the scenes.

When the entire ponzi scheme house of cards fails it will make the Great Depression look like a weekend picnic.

Everyone knows the consequences of our deficit spending and national debt, but none of the politicians will do anything about it, just kick the can down the road, mostly because nobody knows what the tipping point will be and what will trigger the failure and economic collapse., so they assume it doesn't matter and won't happen.

But 100% it WILL happen. My guess is it will happen in the next 50-75 years. Hopefully the USA can survive (not a certainty) and rebuild/restore a federal government of/by/for the people and answerable to the people, limited in scope to it's original intent (Article 1 section 8 and ONLY Article 1 section 8, all else left to the states).

GAC06 said:

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Funky Winkerbean said:

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The interest on our debt exceeds tax revenue. This means we have to print money to keep our government functioning and printed money leads to inflation.

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34 people starred this

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The most recent data for December 2024 is out.

The US govt had total revenue (taxes, fees, tariffs) of $454 billion. The US govt paid $140 billion in interest on the national debt.

31% of all govt revenue was consumed by interest payments on the debt.

It is actually worse than… pic.twitter.com/M0pwVttA42

— Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) January 14, 2025

Jarrin' Jay said:

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When the entire ponzi scheme house of cards fails it will make the Great Depression look like a weekend picnic.

But 100% it WILL happen. My guess is it will happen in the next 50-75 years.

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That's a loooong time. We have the baby boomers leaving the workforce and AI/automation entering over next decade. That means way less retirement flows going into the S&P. IMO, this dynamic is the most probable trigger of the beginning of a great depression type correction. But unlike the GD, most of our modern society is totally incapable of dealing with extreme hardship......which will make it worse as you point out.

We have been in a 45 year bull market with full employment and growing private retirement. Anyone under 60 knows nothing else. The bid on S&P has been steady and growing, but won't last forever. A 20-30% reduction in flows into the S&P over a relatively short period, while at the same time most people have the capability in their pocket to sell/short.....its something to be mindful of. Not sure the Fed will be able to QE out of it.

The only positive is that all of these nonsense woke mind virus topics will totally evaporate. No one, not even woke leftists, will care in truly hard times.

My guess would be 2030s timeframe that these concerns begin to materialize.

FobTies said:

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Jarrin' Jay said:

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When the entire ponzi scheme house of cards fails it will make the Great Depression look like a weekend picnic.

But 100% it WILL happen. My guess is it will happen in the next 50-75 years.

---

That's a loooong time. We have the baby boomers leaving the workforce and AI/automation entering over next decade. That means way less retirement flows going into the S&P. IMO, this dynamic is the most probable trigger of the beginning of a great depression type correction. But unlike the GD, most of our modern society is totally incapable of dealing with extreme hardship......which will make it worse as you point out.

We have been in a 45 year bull market with full employment and growing private retirement. Anyone under 60 knows nothing else. The bid on S&P has been steady and growing, but won't last forever. A 20-30% reduction in flows into the S&P over a relatively short period, while at the same time most people have the capability in their pocket to sell/short.....its something to be mindful of. Not sure the Fed will be able to QE out of it.

The only positive is that all of these nonsense woke mind virus topics will totally evaporate. No one, not even woke leftists, will care in truly hard times.

My guess would be 2030s timeframe that these concerns begin to materialize.

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The boomers are already leaving the workforce and have been for a decade. Statistically speaking the inflection point of their retirement was Q4-2022 so they're on the downhill side. By 2040 most of that generation will have died. The impact of them aging out of the job market is already being felt with tight labor and rising wages and that will continue for years.

What we aren't talking about for some reason is the availability of homes. Gen Z has been told they'll never be able to own a home and that's just nonsense. As the boomers age into assisted living and eventually die there's going to be a massive supply of homes coming onto the market and prices will stall or even retreat. It may be into their 30's before it happens but home ownership will be easier for Z than it has been for the millennials because of the surge in supply from the boomers dying. My family alone owns three homes by parents 72 and older. My sister and I own our homes and my BIL is dead so those homes will either be sold outright or shuffled into the hands of grandkids that are Gen Z.

Prosperdick said:

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I wonder how much entitlement fraud is taking place. I wonder how much savings can occur by simply tightening up the controls for those handouts.

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Entitlements fraud is >10%, maybe >20% https://t.co/ehp8lRTyBv

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 17, 2025

Prosperdick said:

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Prosperdick said:

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I wonder how much entitlement fraud is taking place. I wonder how much savings can occur by simply tightening up the controls for those handouts.

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Entitlements fraud is >10%, maybe >20% https://t.co/ehp8lRTyBv

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 17, 2025

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Perhaps adding some more people to look into things like this might help find more?

No Spin Ag said:

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Prosperdick said:

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Prosperdick said:

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I wonder how much entitlement fraud is taking place. I wonder how much savings can occur by simply tightening up the controls for those handouts.

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Entitlements fraud is >10%, maybe >20% https://t.co/ehp8lRTyBv

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 17, 2025

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Perhaps adding some more people to look into things like this might help find more?

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The better play is to just end them all.

Remember: COVID money was found to be up to 50% fraudulent/stolen.

The Government should cease all handouts for 6 months and see what reality is on the ground.

FobTies said:

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Jarrin' Jay said:

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When the entire ponzi scheme house of cards fails it will make the Great Depression look like a weekend picnic.

But 100% it WILL happen. My guess is it will happen in the next 50-75 years.

---

That's a loooong time. We have the baby boomers leaving the workforce and AI/automation entering over next decade. That means way less retirement flows going into the S&P. IMO, this dynamic is the most probable trigger of the beginning of a great depression type correction. But unlike the GD, most of our modern society is totally incapable of dealing with extreme hardship......which will make it worse as you point out.

We have been in a 45 year bull market with full employment and growing private retirement. Anyone under 60 knows nothing else. The bid on S&P has been steady and growing, but won't last forever. A 20-30% reduction in flows into the S&P over a relatively short period, while at the same time most people have the capability in their pocket to sell/short.....its something to be mindful of. Not sure the Fed will be able to QE out of it.

The only positive is that all of these nonsense woke mind virus topics will totally evaporate. No one, not even woke leftists, will care in truly hard times.

My guess would be 2030s timeframe that these concerns begin to materialize.

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Nobody alive today knows anything but bull market. 60's and 70's were a blip on the radar and the beginning of the rapid expansion of the money supply and the monetization of debt. 2000-2008 was a blip on the radar in the context of the bull market. This thing started following th Great Depression. The cycles in between have been within the context of the larger bull. What's coming next is the cycle that follows a long-term bull.. a long-term bear.. likely 20 years long.

YouBet said:

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Remember: COVID money was found to be up to 50% fraudulent/stolen.

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Funny, at my firm, it seems like there was a correlation for a segment of new customers who had previously been recipients of PPP loans and were later found to have a high potential for engaging in ACH fraud and/or ID theft.

I've always wondered what amount of due diligence, CIP, and KYC the PPP loan admins were required to perform