Daniel Horowitz and Steve Deace of the Blaze both keep saying everyday they are going to drop a huge debt bomb on Trump's lap during his second term. They are saying this debt bomb will lead to a 2008 level market correction or even a 1930s style depression unless Trumps takes major steps to stop it.

After going through horrible inflation and skyrocketing prices during the Biden admin, the country cannot take anymore financial uncertainty.

Deace and Horowitz are saying Trump needs to use budget reconciliation to make real major cuts to spending and entitlements like Medicaid, Food stamps, SNAP, WIC, TANF, Obamacare subsidies, and IRA aka Biden's Green New Scam to try to lessen the blow.

Hopefully Scott Bessent knows what he is doing. I don't know anything about him. Jerome Powell should also have his job performance evaluated by Trump.

I do know that Russell Vought, who will be the new director of OMB, is the best pick Trump has made for his new administration according to Ned Ryun and Tucker Carlson.

I just don't understand what this debt bomb, that could lead to a depression like the 1930s or a major recession like 2008-2009, Deace and Horowitz keep talking about is?

The interest on our debt exceeds tax revenue. This means we have to print money to keep our government functioning and printed money leads to inflation.

This is just an opinion, based on nada but observation.

You can't operate on a massive deficit forever.

End of story.

The deficit last year is around 1.8 trillion. My guess is this year it will be 2 trillion.

Truth is they been printing money since 1913

Funky Winkerbean said:

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The interest on our debt exceeds tax revenue. This means we have to print money to keep our government functioning and printed money leads to inflation.

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This isn't true, or even close to being true. US federal revenue in FY2023 was about 4.5 trillion dollars, with interest payments on the debt being about 660 billion.

Trigon Jin said:

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This is just an opinion, based on nada but observation.

You can't operate on a massive deficit forever.

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I don't know if we can, either, but we are sure going to find out. Non-defense discretionary spending is slightly less than 1 trillion dollars, meaning that if the federal government did literally nothing other than fund the military, pay interest on debt, and fund entitlements, it would still be close to a trillion dollars in debt per year.

YokelRidesAgain said:

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Funky Winkerbean said:

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The interest on our debt exceeds tax revenue. This means we have to print money to keep our government functioning and printed money leads to inflation.

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This isn't true, or even close to being true. US federal revenue in FY2023 was about 4.5 trillion dollars, with interest payments on the debt being about 660 billion.

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I should've included uncontrollable expenses as well..ss, Medicare, etc..

I think it is reference to this:

TheWoodlandsTxAg said:

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Hopefully Scott Bessent knows what he is doing. I don't know anything about him. Jerome Powell should also have his job performance evaluated by Trump.

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Don't get your hopes up for Soros boy.

DOGE will diffuse it (somewhat). The biggest issue is entitlements.

I don't recell Horowitz mentioning this much on his Twitter. @FinanceLancelot has been hammering the impending bond market trouble

Finally people are starting to get it!

They're choking the world of Dollars, so foreign nations & banks are forced to dump US treasuries significantly below face value. That's why they engineered the 2020 inflationary crisis, now it's deflation.

We're entering the final phase. https://t.co/JZ6Twfq4MO pic.twitter.com/QroNv4YNGu

— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) January 11, 2025

U.S. 10 year yield just hit 4.76%.
Buckle up 🤪 https://t.co/toa95yppeq pic.twitter.com/W57q4bfysZ

— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) January 10, 2025

It isn't a coincidence Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026.

It doesn't matter what Trump says or does, Powell will execute the plan that has been playing out the last 6 years, bringing about The Great Reset.pic.twitter.com/8yXtHUl3V2 https://t.co/YsVqhsdp0i

— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) January 11, 2025

🚨 Japan's 10 year yield just hit 1.2%, about to go vertical.

Deflationary Asian Financial Crisis 2.0 forcing govs to dump US treasuries before maturity, allowing the US to take them out of circulation.
This will turn into an international banking crisis in 2025 @SantiagoAuFund https://t.co/w7NHrWGKHG pic.twitter.com/SRmornHyDW

— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) January 10, 2025

Central banks have just engineered the worst crisis we've ever seen and now it's ready to go.

By pulling the liquidity rug away they've set the stage for another crisis, all that's needed is the trigger/narrative. https://t.co/2RhyVZhH5c pic.twitter.com/tas2TgrN22

— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) January 6, 2025

TRM said:

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I don't recell Horowitz mentioning this much on his Twitter. @FinanceLancelot has been hammering the impending bond market trouble

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[Edited to removed repetitious X posts. No other edits. When replying to another poster, please do not quote with all of the attachments included. Thanks -- Staff]

Oh. Thanks for the info.

I don't use twitter. All of the twitter links I pull up, I get from google searches. When I search on google for a political commentator, the 5 most recent tweets come up. I don't remember Horowitz tweeting about it.

Daniel Horowitz has been talking about an "impending debt bomb" a bunch on his Podcast the Conservative Review with Daniel Horowitz.

You can listen to the episodes by clicking on the name of the episode, and then pressing the purple play button.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/conservative-review-with-daniel-horowitz/id1065050908

We are 36T in debt. The annual spend on all Discretionary spending is equal to the annual deficit.

That's the debt bomb. You don't recover from that.

So much overthinking here.

So what does all this mean in layman's terms? Major depression? Stock market crash?

Explain all of that to me like I'm 5.


Stock pile gold, silver, lead and food bad?

Or, maybe buy some tools and keep money out of the market for 6 years bad?

Or, nothing will come of this like every other doomsday scenario I've read about and expected in the last 5 years?

The govt will have 3 choices: cut all spending 40%, print money which will to hyperinflation, or declare bankruptcy. None of the choices are good.

Larry Burkett predicted this in his 1980's book The Coming Economic Earthquake". The only problem was his timing was off 40 years.

They can also raise taxes.

Ordinary Man said:

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The govt will have 3 choices: cut all spending 40%, print money which will to hyperinflation, or declare bankruptcy. None of the choices are good.

Larry Burkett predicted this in his 1980's book The Coming Economic Earthquake". The only problem was his timing was off 40 years.

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From a moderate-leftist point of view, I'd be okay with cutting 40%. My problem is where those cuts take place. Some of these departments President Trump says will be eliminated shouldn't be. But I have no problem with their budgets being scaled back. I'm sorry, but my son, after a severely life-threatening injury, benefited from Head Start. Wiping the Department of Education off the map means that we'd be living a totally different life right now. Yes, I know it's anecdotal and biased. But, let's not cut funding where societal good happens.

Ordinary Man said:

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The govt will have 3 choices: cut all spending 40%, print money which will to hyperinflation, or declare bankruptcy. None of the choices are good.

Larry Burkett predicted this in his 1980's book The Coming Economic Earthquake". The only problem was his timing was off 40 years.

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I don't know who to believe anymore. The web is overflowing with doomsday messages. I think in part because it's good for selling books and getting clicks. Eventually they will claim they were right but then market corrections are inevitable.

I don't believe anyone has the market pulse and they don't know when the next correction will occur.

TA-OP said:

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Ordinary Man said:

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The govt will have 3 choices: cut all spending 40%, print money which will to hyperinflation, or declare bankruptcy. None of the choices are good.

Larry Burkett predicted this in his 1980's book The Coming Economic Earthquake". The only problem was his timing was off 40 years.

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From a moderate-leftist point of view, I'd be okay with cutting 40%. My problem is where those cuts take place. Some of these departments President Trump says will be eliminated shouldn't be. But I have no problem with their budgets being scaled back. I'm sorry, but my son, after a severely life-threatening injury, benefited from Head Start. Wiping the Department of Education off the map means that we'd be living a totally different life right now. Yes, I know it's anecdotal and biased. But, let's not cut funding where societal good happens.

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Only 3% of the federal budget is classified as education.

Over half of all spending is Social Security and entitlements. That's where the vast majority of cuts have to come from.

Has anyone reviewed these guys '23 & '24 outlooks?

Remember, those who call for recessions and depressions are always eventually right.

scary scary things that control us

Rocky Rider said:

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Ordinary Man said:

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The govt will have 3 choices: cut all spending 40%, print money which will to hyperinflation, or declare bankruptcy. None of the choices are good.

Larry Burkett predicted this in his 1980's book The Coming Economic Earthquake". The only problem was his timing was off 40 years.

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I don't know who to believe anymore. The web is overflowing with doomsday messages. I think in part because it's good for selling books and getting clicks. Eventually they will claim they were right but then market corrections are inevitable.

I don't believe anyone has the market pulse and they don't know when the next correction will occur.

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See my earlier post. That is the only fact you need to know.

What comes next we do know, but just not when. What I can tell you is the only reason we haven't already defaulted is because we are the one-eyed man in the land of the blind and we are the majority reserve currency. If/when the latter ceases, then hold onto your butts.

Regardless, our debt payments are now higher than both Defense and Medicare and about to exceed Health. Once it does that the only line item higher than Debt Interest is Social Security.

We just ran our third largest deficit in US history in 2024 and it's only getting worse. It's a major f'ing problem.

aggiebrad94 said:

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Has anyone reviewed these guys '23 & '24 outlooks?

Remember, those who call for recessions and depressions are always eventually right.

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Anyone who tries to predict the timing of the pain that comes from our excessive debt is playing a fools game. But that doesn't make it any less impactful. It's right in front of us in plain sight, and we keep whistling past the graveyard as if everything is ok. The amount we're spending on interest on the debt is now approaching what we spend on national defense. That's just the interest... not one nickel is actually going to reduce the debt.

Can you tell me any other entity that continued to spend past their means with no consequences? They don't exist. Individuals and companies that do it eventually go bankrupt. They say bankruptcy comes on very slowly -- and then when it happens -- it happens very quickly. There is a breaking point you get to where the house of cards collapses.

For the US, it will be some combination of higher inflation, higher taxes, higher interest rates, and severe cuts to government spending. Those can become a bit circular, where one causes the other(s) to spiral. None of them are good for economic activity or asset valuations. Will it be a sudden, catastrophic crash, or instead a decades long period of economic misery? I wouldn't dare guess the timing, because I would be wrong if I did. But the big picture is very clear... all the ingredients are here today, and our leaders of both political parties continue to ignore them because dealing with it would cause pushback from voters.

TA-OP said:

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Ordinary Man said:

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The govt will have 3 choices: cut all spending 40%, print money which will to hyperinflation, or declare bankruptcy. None of the choices are good.

Larry Burkett predicted this in his 1980's book The Coming Economic Earthquake". The only problem was his timing was off 40 years.

---

From a moderate-leftist point of view, I'd be okay with cutting 40%. My problem is where those cuts take place. Some of these departments President Trump says will be eliminated shouldn't be. But I have no problem with their budgets being scaled back. I'm sorry, but my son, after a severely life-threatening injury, benefited from Head Start. Wiping the Department of Education off the map means that we'd be living a totally different life right now. Yes, I know it's anecdotal and biased. But, let's not cut funding where societal good happens.

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First let me say I'm glad your son survived whatever happened and he's here to drive your interest in this conversation. Everything pales in comparison to the health and safety of our kids.

I think you're in a tough spot with Dept of Education. I mostly think Head Start is a good thing though I will say we're watching daycares close at an accelerating pace right now because Head Start has taken on the 4 year olds and some 3's. That's a whole lot of small businesses being put out of business. Seen it first hand. My preference honestly would be that families needing help paying for daycare receive subsidies like we have in Brazos County and I assume most of the rest of the state and nation. That keeps preschool aged care in the hands of small businesses and away from the bureaucrats.

Head Start aside much of the rest of Dept of Education is just waste at best and federal overreach at worst. What we've seen with these huge federal bureaucracies is a willingness to use their power to force political opinions into what should be local decisions. Like it or not we were founded with a small central government precisely because the founders didn't want a government that tried to run everyone's lives. It's the same with the EPA, they do some good but Los Angeles is on fire with no water to fight it in part due to environmental policies taking the place of logical decisions that needed to be made to protect peoples lives and property. This particular awful decision may have been made by California and not DC but you get the point, these massive bureaucracies are staffed with myopic people unable to see the forest for the trees and invariably death and destruction follows.

I guess my point for you would be that if Head Start is worth saving let's look at grant money specifically targeted to that program without a massive bureaucracy determined to inject the federal government into places it doesn't belong like student loans and primary school curriculum, etc. we must get the federal government out of our daily lives and back into the box the founders created for it. The God complex in DC has to be eliminated. That must happen or it will be bad for all of us.

My $.02.

shack009 said:

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TA-OP said:

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Ordinary Man said:

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The govt will have 3 choices: cut all spending 40%, print money which will to hyperinflation, or declare bankruptcy. None of the choices are good.

Larry Burkett predicted this in his 1980's book The Coming Economic Earthquake". The only problem was his timing was off 40 years.

---

From a moderate-leftist point of view, I'd be okay with cutting 40%. My problem is where those cuts take place. Some of these departments President Trump says will be eliminated shouldn't be. But I have no problem with their budgets being scaled back. I'm sorry, but my son, after a severely life-threatening injury, benefited from Head Start. Wiping the Department of Education off the map means that we'd be living a totally different life right now. Yes, I know it's anecdotal and biased. But, let's not cut funding where societal good happens.

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Only 3% of the federal budget is classified as education.

Over half of all spending is Social Security and entitlements. That's where the vast majority of cuts have to come from.

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Two thirds of the budget is mandatory spending via SS, Medicare, and Medicaid.

in layman's terms we have a huge **** burger someone is going to take a huge bite of, it will be the american people. it is a two fold plan. one is to bring down america the last bastion of freedom and replace it with a one world government. it will include a great reset.

many are asking what this means, act as if ur the us govt and it's ur debt. what does it mean when u get to this point?

there are other major factors at play from the bond market, yellen timing decision of short term bond maturities etc but the end game goal and result is the same. the collapse of the american empire.

I wonder how much entitlement fraud is taking place. I wonder how much savings can occur by simply tightening up the controls for those handouts.

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The amount we're spending on interest on the debt is now approaching what we spend on national defense. That's just the interest... not one nickel is actually going to reduce the debt.

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Interest on debt already passed national defense and Medicare spending. We are already there.

Yea I think we are F'd in the long run. Thats why I have physical gold, physical silver, GLD, SLV, and BTC. IF we can get GDP up we can sustain the ponzi a little longer.

I think Ai and bots like TSLA's working on could in fact increase GDP. As a result, our debt to GDP ratio will come down. Right now, I think it's like 125% ?

As a country, we also must take a look at entitlements AND institute term limits. Term limits is the first step. Doubt the crooks would ever vote to lose their cushy money laundering jobs, however.

I honestly have no idea what to do. The banks are holding billions of unrealized losses from bonds that have cratered. The debt to GDP ratio is 120%+. Per the economic experts, when you get over 100%, it reduces GDP. Just look at Japan. The yearly interest on the debt is over $1 trillion, more than defense, which has never happened before.

You can get 20 year treasuries right now darn near 5%, but will that be near enough to break even with inflation?

There is nowhere to run.

When DOGE reduces SS and Medicare by 20%, watch all the Boomer Trump voters come crawling asking for more handouts and welfare

tysker said:

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When DOGE reduces SS and Medicare by 20%, watch all the Boomer Trump voters come crawling asking for more handouts and welfare

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They aren't touching SS or Medicare. Trump already said they weren't. The Republicans Party Platform explicitly says they won't cut SS.

The only spend with a chance of getting cut is Discretionary.

And DOGE can't do anything without the consent of the RINOs in congress. I expect DOGE to last a year tops as when Musk and Vivek leave in frustration.