Fireman said:

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donkeykick90 said:

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Sazerac said:

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Aren't they just "lost" as they are in storage with no key?

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Correct, they are lost in the sense that they are in some computer, or wallet in which no one remembers their seed phrase to get in. There's a story out there of a guy who paid millions to search a landfill to find an old hard drive worth many millions of BTC. Those address will remain dormant forever.

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I suspect there will be treasure hunters one day that attempt to figure out the seeds of these wallets. While likely futile, many will try and perhaps it can be done once computing power reaches a certain point.

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IMO if someone finds an old laptop or Hardrive containing bitcoin they'll need a quantum computer to crack the seed phrase riddle.

BlueTaze said:

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The gov can just call up Larry Fink at any point and it's game over for BTC. The largest holder dumps, over leveraged holders like Saylor get margin calls, forced sells, panic, crash, gameover.

Not saying that is going to happen. But that's how fragile it is. It ends in a rat tail chart, only question is how high it goes for how long before that.

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Govern me harder, Daddy. Protect me from self-sovereignty and financial freedom, its too scary!

You don't need any device or hardware - you only need the seed phrase. You could guess and check all day long if you wanted too.....but the chances of finding anything is

1 in 1000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 of finding a wallet with anything in it.

I read Lowery's "Softwar" when it came out after reading excepts of his thesis on LinkedIn. I bought a print copy that I have since loaned out and don't recall whom to. Wish I had it back.

exp said:

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Blackrocks 25 bps rake on their current holdings has already exceeded $100 million annually. That figure will only grow.

To the guy who sold Bitcoin and is waiting for a dip, I'm sorry that happened to you and I recommend you study Bitcoin more so you understand what you own(ed). Brutal.

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I've owned physical bitcoin since 2017, and I remember several cycles of it going up, then a major crash and then up to new ATH's and repeat. My worry is that I sold too early in the cycle. Oh, and not that it really matters but I didn't sell my physical bitcoin (and never will), just a good bit of IBIT. It is definitely hard to watch and I know I have left a lot of profit on the table, but you know as well as I do there will be a major pull back as there always is. And I will just see it as a major buying opportunity.

It will pull back to $150k after it soars to $250k or more. That will be your buying opportunity. We are just starting the bull run right now if you compared to previous halving cycles.

ac04 said:

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but i was told governments would 100% definitely ban bitcoin.

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If they can't they'll find a way to regulate it and screw over the public with it.

Where's the $100B+ gonna come from to fund this? Won't be congress.

Diet Cokehead said:

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It will pull back to $150k after it soars to $250k or more. That will be your buying opportunity. We are just starting the bull run right now if you compared to previous halving cycles.

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Ppl fail to realize that moving the market cap from here is vastly different than what it took in "previous cycles". Secondly, a count of like 3 to 4 does not make a trend or actionable historic pattern

More than that

FBI confiscations could be one?

I'd say once you are on your 4th, 5th, or 6th account posting about the same topic, you have a problem and should stop…

exp said:

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Blackrocks 25 bps rake on their current holdings has already exceeded $100 million annually. That figure will only grow.

To the guy who sold Bitcoin and is waiting for a dip, I'm sorry that happened to you and I recommend you study Bitcoin more so you understand what you own(ed). Brutal.

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I feel sorry for people who think Blackrock is their ally when they come riding into town on an asset.

@NFLPlayerProps said:

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BlueTaze said:

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The gov can just call up Larry Fink at any point and it's game over for BTC. The largest holder dumps, over leveraged holders like Saylor get margin calls, forced sells, panic, crash, gameover.

Not saying that is going to happen. But that's how fragile it is. It ends in a rat tail chart, only question is how high it goes for how long before that.

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Govern me harder, Daddy. Protect me from self-sovereignty and financial freedom, its too scary!

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Nah you got it backwards. I would love BTC to succeed and destroy the Fed and central banking.

The only ones who think that will happen are those who trust daddy gov to back down and do what's best for them.

The only way gov will listen to us is thru the barrel of a gun, not some cyber asset.

The strongest arguement for buying BTC is that it hasn't yet reached the market cap for gov to destroy it. Plenty of room to run before that happens.

Regardless of your thoughts on Bitcoin, this is a much better plan with government money that 90% of the bull**** they do currently.

The more I read on this, think this probably doesn't happen. problematic to source the money, requires Congress passing laws, there are still regulation holes to be fixed with the crypto industry, and skeptical this would be a popular way to spend tax payer money to the average voter. Though crypto special interests groups and some influential folks who own a lot of Bitcoin are certainly paying a lot of money to politicians to try.

Pumping up the price of Bitcoin to make Bitcoin owners richer was not high on the to-do list for most voters RE why Trump got elected; this would be a controversial adventure for Trump to get to sucked into.

That's better - keeping the physical Bitcoin and trading ETF shares with your fiat slush fund.

I was worried you were one of those guys who only has a Coinbase account and sold it all for a "profit" in IRS utility tokens.

Pumpkinhead said:

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The more I read on this, think this probably doesn't happen. problematic to source the money, requires Congress passing laws, there are still regulation holes to be fixed with the crypto industry, and skeptical this would be a popular way to spend tax payer money to the average voter. Though crypto special interests groups and some influential folks who own a lot of Bitcoin are certainly paying a lot of money to politicians to try.

Pumping up the price of Bitcoin to make Bitcoin owners richer was not high on the to-do list for most voters RE why Trump got elected; this would be a controversial adventure for Trump to get to sucked into.

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Problematic to source the money??? JFC man they issue unlimited TBills for insanely stupid crap and the Fed will monetize all of it.

Securing Bitcoin is of strategic national interest in case the dollar hegemony fails. Michael Saylor gives a very compelling argument for this in his recent talk to Cantor Fitzgerald which I recommend all of you watch. It's a long video so you can start at this time stamp for Strategic Reserve risk reward

BTW I don't think it'll happen either. I think Trump will issue a token executive order to reclassify the Bitcoin they already hold as a "reserve" but not actually buy any more. We'll see.

Diet Cokehead said:

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It will pull back to $150k after it soars to $250k or more. That will be your buying opportunity. We are just starting the bull run right now if you compared to previous halving cycles.

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Good strategy. I've been tracking along with these charts
https://charts.bitbo.io/rainbow/
If price action continues similarly to previous cycles I could easily see the peak of this bull run anywhere between $150 - $250K BTC with a bear run touching $100K-$125K

Y axis is Log BTC/USD
X axis historical BTC dates along with each halving


My other favorite char is their low cycle multiple
https://charts.bitbo.io/cycle-low-multiple/

We are in era 4 right now, could see a high cycle multiple of 15-20x
Great charts and analysis at this site, highly recommend studying them.
I've been DCA'ing BTC since 2019. 10-15 years from now I won't regret all the fiat I've put in.


You get bitcoin at the price you deserve.

aggiebq03+ said:

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I'd say once you are on your 4th, 5th, or 6th account posting about the same topic, you have a problem and should stop…

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I know folks that *literally* make millions in oil, gas, commercial real estate, tanning salons, etc. I have a neighbor that has made a fortune on NVIDIA stock.

None of them take to message boards to tell people about it and how stupid they are for not doing the same.

Bitcoin people are so bizarre.

Sazerac said:

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Only 21M will ever be created. Closing in on 20M

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so if the USA has 1 million BTC and China has 1.5 million BTC

the rest of the world is going to be fighting over 18 million BTC between them

is this bullish or bearish?

one can make the argument that China and the USA cornering the market would be bearish as no one will be able to buy those coins

lummis' bill was submitted 7/31/24 and the committee has already reviewed. i believe the republicans' goal is to pass this bill in the first 100 days of trump's term. i don't expect much resistance from democrats as being anti-crypto is not a wise position politically at the moment. and they're the minority anyway, i don't think anyone is going to be opposed enough to filibuster. i think the chances of the bill getting passed are 50/50 at the absolute minimum.

i do think there is a chance that trump just re-brands the current stash to "strategic reserve" as someone else already mentioned to check that box without having to really do anything.

ultimately i think the choices for treasury secretary, fed chair, and SEC chair are probably more important than the reserve in the short term anyway.

Hey man, some people only bounce off the surface of Bitcoin's depth and can only see the $Price.

Doesn't mean that's what you should focus on.

I'm more interested, at this point, what Hyperbitcoinization is going to do to people.

https://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/speculative-attack/

Strong Currencies Replace Weak Currencies

• Strong, stable currencies have historically driven out weaker ones in the international market due to their superior qualities.
• These strong currencies include: Persian daric coin, Greek tetradrachma, Macedonian stater, Roman denarius, Italian florins, ducats and pounds sterling.
• These strong currencies consistently gain dominance in international trade, while weaker currencies lose value.

Bitcoin Increasing Value

• The price of bitcoin increases relative to other currencies due to the network effect, adoption, and investor speculation.
• The value of bitcoin rises as they become more widely accepted and used as money globally.
• Bitcoin gain more desirability and preference as their adoption increases.
• As bitcoin gain more market share and usage.

Currency Crises and Bitcoin Adoption

• In times of economic distress or uncertainty, people are more likely to adopt bitcoin due to their perceived safety and stability.
• As more individuals and institutions adopt bitcoin, their perceived value and utility increase.
• Inflation and economic crises drive people towards bitcoin as the preferred, stable currency.
• Bitcoin are increasingly used as money, as store of value, and for international trade.

Mainstream Consumers Misunderstanding Bitcoin

• Many mainstream consumers may not fully grasp the potential and advantages of using bitcoin as money.
• They may misunderstand the underlying technology's benefits and overlook its potential.
• Many people are unaware of the benefits of using bitcoin for transactions.

Bitcoin Foundation's Initiative

• The Bitcoin Foundation pays tribute to bold assertions about the currency.
• Their initiative honors those who make strong, assertive, or forward-looking statements about the future of bitcoin.
• Bold assertions about bitcoin and their advantages are celebrated on the Bitcoin Foundation's platform.
• The Bitcoin Foundation's mission is to promote and advance bitcoin as global currency.

Hyperbitcoinization

• Strong Currencies Have Historically Replaced Weak Currencies

Throughout history, strong currencies have consistently outperformed weak currencies. Strong currencies have gained dominance in international trade and commerce, while weak currencies have lost value and usage. Strong currencies have replaced weaker ones, as people increasingly prefer them for transactions.

• Weak Currencies Lose Value Faster

Inflation and weak currencies are intertwined. As the government prints more money, the money supply grows faster than the public's inflation expectations. The government must inflate even more to maintain the illusion of affordability. The weaker the currency becomes, the faster it loses value.

Hyperbitcoinization refers to an event where bitcoin rapidly replace weak currencies as the dominant currency. The process is rapid because it is caused by increasing preference for bitcoin.

Hyperbitcoinization should be accompanied by economic growth and widespread adoption.

Hyperbitcoinization refers to an event where bitcoin rapidly replace weaker currencies as the dominant currency.

Hyperbitcoinization can be difficult to understand or envision after it occurs compared to other economic systems.

Hyperbitcoinization refers to an event where bitcoin rapidly replace weak currencies as the dominant currency. The process is rapid because it is driven by increasing demand and preference for bitcoin.

In summary:

• Strong currencies have historically replaced weak ones due to their strength, stability, and acceptance.
• Weak currencies lose value and acceptance faster as the government prints more money.
• Hyperbitcoinization refers to an event of rapid replacement of weak currencies by superior bitcoin.
• Hyperbitcoinization refers to an event where bitcoin rapidly replace weaker currencies as the dominant currency.
• Hyperbitcoinization is a chaotic and confusing process.

short and sweet, we could hyperbitcoinize and it could be extremely painful, or we could perform it overnight like updating your payment software or an update on your phone.

Appropriate distribution of Bitcoin or representation of said bitcoin would be necessary (since so few people listened ahead of time) and that's of immense interest to me. Crypto Czar might need to have that perspective. This is where UBI will rear it's head as well as Proof of Identity. We might be headed towards a Universal ID system, lot of really important decisions heading our way as we transition.

Maybe all of it is moot if Poles flip or sun wipes us out or nukes or any other apocolyptic scenario, or the Aggies win the National Championship, or aliens exist or some other thing that likely will happen in our lifespans the way things are going.

A bitcoin reserve would be worthless.

1) there is no reason to get bitcoin in the first place.
2) there is no reason to sell something you believe will increase in value.
3) there is no reason to pay for something you can only get rid of because someone else thinks it will increase in value.

ac04 said:

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ultimately i think the choices for treasury secretary, fed chair, and SEC chair are probably more important than the reserve in the short term anyway.

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bessent nominated for treasury secretary

Trump's Secretary of Treasury nominee Scott Bessent:

"I think everything is on the table with Bitcoin."pic.twitter.com/IuQZIIdtaz https://t.co/hkf3eyXzmS

— Pledditor (@Pledditor) November 22, 2024

TexasRebel said:

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A bitcoin reserve would be worthless.

1) there is no reason to get bitcoin in the first place.
2) there is no reason to sell something you believe will increase in value.
3) there is no reason to pay for something you can only get rid of because someone else thinks it will increase in value.

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I was wondering when you'd show up.
You never establish what Bitcoin gains in value against, only claiming that it's deflationary so it has no value because people only want to horde it.

Because dollars and effort will increasingly continue towards mining and securing the network, more value will be added in terms of what people are willing to trade to secure one bitcoin. This is the value that gets traded down and it's why it appears to be deflationary. The Bitcoin itself isn't actually deflationary. In fact, it inflates at a constant rate set by the reward the minors get for their time & effort. It will continue to do so for about 120 more years. However this means that supply isn't increasing at the same rate as the increasing demand, and it is not responsive to that demand. The supply will never increase beyond the rate that it is set regardless of demand, only the time and effort people are willing to put into mining one coin because they are all chasing the higher value.

Please note that I really believe that there will be diminishing returns in the coming decades as there is an ideal saturation point of value in terms of market cap, but a coin itself will be worth millions by then. Honestly there is a lot of value in a perfectly transmutable currency and it definitely has it's place in the digital world we now live in.

(don't feed the troll)

The "supply" comes to a screeching halt when there are no transactions.

If a single party controls all bitcoin, what incentive does anyone else have to acquire one?

TexasRebel said:

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A bitcoin reserve would be worthless.

1) there is no reason to get bitcoin in the first place.
2) there is no reason to sell something you believe will increase in value.
3) there is no reason to pay for something you can only get rid of because someone else thinks it will increase in value.

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LOL, unless maybe you want to build wealth? I considered not posting this because it's the internet and only as good as what you take it for, but I want to give people an insight to what's possible right now with Bitcoin in the early stages of growth and adoption by governments and financial institutions.
I've made roughly 250k this month on Bitcoin and it's proxies.

Keep telling yourself there's no reason to buy any. I'm no financial advisor and this is not financial advice, but if I could tell anyone anything about Bitcoin and where it's very likely heading, buy yourself $25, $50, $100 a month and let it sit just like a savings account. Some of the numbers being thrown around by very intelligent people of where the value of Bitcoin is going to be in 5 - 10 years are stunning.

Texas is already the home of crypto mining.

This session Texas should become the crypto capital.#Bitcoin #crypto

wears the crown as the bitcoin mining capital of the world https://t.co/a3paG1kamX

— Greg Abbott (@GregAbbott_TX) November 8, 2024

PSA: there are much easier ways to buy bitcoin than from an ATM.

What'd you say about Enron in '00?

TexasRebel said:

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What'd you say about Enron in '00?

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Wtf does Enron have to do with this?
Were states and countries creating Enron Strategic Reserves? Do what you feel is right for yourself and I'll do the same.