Argentina "poverty rate soaring"

5,861 Views | 53 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by Burdizzo
Ciboag96
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https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/extreme-poverty-soars-to-affect-six-million-in-argentina-study-shows.phtml

I keep seeing this referenced by the never-honest mainstream media. Always the same articles, same wording. "Poverty rate soaring" or "extreme poverty growing" in Argentina.

So what's the real story.
ts5641
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When Argentina turns to civil war they'll want us to send troops and aid.
Stmichael
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AG
Milei cut a ****load of government spending on welfare government jobs and has gotten inflation under control. So basically he's in the recession segment of the Reagan economy, and we all know how that one went.
lead
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That article is hard to make sense of. Try this: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/can-milei-defuse-argentinas-economic-time-bomb-2024-11-04/
Bunk Moreland
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You can't make sweeping reforms to government bloat without undergoing a painful period while people have to recondition themselves that it's up to them to earn money, provide shelter and safety and feed their families.

This is unfortunately the part where I'm not sure Trump has the appetite. He wants a legacy more than anything else. I hope like hell he can withstand the downside of what truly reforming this country will have to take. Because it'd make him or anyone truly willing to do it the greatest president in history.
Dill-Ag13
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AG
Trump needs 8 years for what he wants to do, he's got 4
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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The story is this is what runaway inflation for years does to the middle class. This is where we are heading if we don't reign in our federal bureaucracy.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Agree. The longer we kick the can down the road, the more it will hurt the lower half when we do.
Prosperdick
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AG
Dill-Ag13 said:

Trump needs 8 years for what he wants to do, he's got 4

Fortunately he has Elon on his side who has shown an incredible knack to expedite processes.
aggie93
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AG
I really hope Trump reaches out to DeSantis and Reynolds, they need people that actually know how to implement this stuff and make it work and have learned the lessons. It takes more than having folks talk about burning it down you have to know how to rebuild it and the reality is you have 3 million Federal employees and you need to know how to untangle that web.

In terms of the economy I think it will be all about how much growth Trump can get through deregulation and tax cuts to offset the reduced government spending that props up the numbers. Also he needs to make sure he gets someone in quickly who can do an accurate accounting, most of the numbers we get from the Feds are cooked, that's why we see "Oh, actually we said they created 800k jobs that they didn't. Sorry about that but we are still the experts and should not be questioned."
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan
halfastros81
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When the numbers are revised downward quietly month after month after month people see thru it.

I absolutely believe this admin needs to demand real numbers be published and they need to point out that yes America … you have been getting lied to so you can't compare past lies to real numbers.
YouBet
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AG
Bunk Moreland said:

You can't make sweeping reforms to government bloat without undergoing a painful period while people have to recondition themselves that it's up to them to earn money, provide shelter and safety and feed their families.

This is unfortunately the part where I'm not sure Trump has the appetite. He wants a legacy more than anything else. I hope like hell he can withstand the downside of what truly reforming this country will have to take. Because it'd make him or anyone truly willing to do it the greatest president in history.


I'm not sure if it's Trump that won't have the appetite. I don't think the American people will have the appetite. Our culture wants all of the upside without having to deal with any downside.
heavens11
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I happened to have been in Argentina this week on business. While I stay away from politics in general the employees I was meeting with indicated that at least their hyper inflation that was killing them for many years appears under control. they said their currency is now stable relative to the US $
10andBOUNCE
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Based on his handling of covid, I have a hard time seeing Trump see this one through. However he is surrounded by better people already, so that would be his saving Grace going forward.
Helicopter Ben
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The people crying about this and pushing these narratives are almost certainly the ones leeching on the govt largesse. They would rather keep their gravy train rolling and have hyperinflation that would 100% guarantee extreme poverty rates for the vast majority of Argentinians. If they spent even a fraction of their time trying to make themselves useful for a change, their pain would already be over. If Milei can hold course for a bit longer Argentina will be one of the most desirable places to live in the world. I'm keeping a close eye on them and I think they're a great case study for what seems likely to happen here. I also fear trump and the American people won't have the stomach to take the short term pain long enough to emerge on the other side. Do we knee jerk back to the left?
Heineken-Ashi
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Also, during a deleveraging, money in assets falls in value while money in cash rises in value. I'd be willingly to bet the people with cash are finding their purchasing power growing daily. But it's likely that the people in question were on the government nipple with no assets and no savings. And it's hard to blame them for not saving when holding cash was like lighting money on fire.
YouBet
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AG
10andBOUNCE said:

Based on his handling of covid, I have a hard time seeing Trump see this one through. However he is surrounded by better people already, so that would be his saving Grace going forward.


I still think this is an unfair characterization. In the beginning, it was total fog of war and no one knew what the hell was happening. In hindsight, he also had people with very bad intentions who were trying to sabotage him. He pretty much reversed course after the initial round of spend and once we started realizing what the reality was.

The Democrats were the ones that ran with the ball and decided to 1984 it.
IslanderAg04
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Funny how they talk about this, but not how the EU is in a massive GDP colapse.
Fightin_Aggie
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And deport the low age workers suppressing wages.

Every delivery driver I see for Urber right now in Round Rock barely or does not speak English.
The world needs mean tweets

My Pronouns Ultra and MAGA

Trump 2024
olarmy96
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It seems to me that hyperinflation makes everyone poor, except the very wealthy who own assets valued in a stable currency.

Looking only within Argentina, maybe you don't appear or feel poor, but you are poor.

Glad to see Milei making some good progress.
FTAggies
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Been watching this as well, from a government perspective it's incredible, inflation all the way down to 2%, budget surplus, killed their "IRS", I'll be thrilled when the people can benefit as much
Gig'em
rocky the dog
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AG




Elections are when people find out what politicians stand for, and politicians find out what people will fall for.
BadMoonRisin
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AFUERA!
wannaggie
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Bunk Moreland said:

You can't make sweeping reforms to government bloat without undergoing a painful period while people have to recondition themselves that it's up to them to earn money, provide shelter and safety and feed their families.

This is unfortunately the part where I'm not sure Trump has the appetite. He wants a legacy more than anything else. I hope like hell he can withstand the downside of what truly reforming this country will have to take. Because it'd make him or anyone truly willing to do it the greatest president in history.
To me this issue is at the core of one of the biggest paradoxes of American politics. America's structure was set up for long term stability by ensuring a frequent turnover and peaceful transfer of power that is flexible and responsive to the electorate.

GOOD:
Congress significantly resets every 2 years. Presidency significantly resets every 4 years. So it's harder for evil factions to permanently capture governance. (Hence the rise of the bureaucratic deep state and TLAs as the source of evil acting unilaterally outside the will of the people.)

BAD:
When serious reforms are truly needed - i.e. the bureaucratic deep state and TLAs - there is no hope for sustained momentum from Congress/POTUS because every second of their terms is now spent exclusively on strategic positioning for the next election cycle.

I have always been conflicted about term limits, because I see merit in arguments on both sides and I don't think there's a conclusive winning argument. Ultimately it always comes back to who we elect. When our servants are good we want them to stay, when they're bad we want to eject them, but the bad ones have a tendency to become entrenched so are harder to eject without some baked in limits. On the other hand, the bad ones also have an easier time defeating the good ones in an election, because elections are inherently slanted against anyone who declines to use every trick available.

In the meantime, the instant the nation as a whole starts experiencing withdrawal from the bad policies, any reform momentum stops at the next election and we recycle back.

I do not see any way that our electoral system will permit serious reform of a $7 trillion deficit-spending deep state. The tumor has infiltrated the entire economy. The founders tried to protect us from this, but their great grandchildren failed. Once government becomes enormous AND a major sector of the economy, you cannot remove the tumor without cutting out a lot of the surrounding tissue. In a nation of 350,000,000 people vying for their share of $7,000,000,000,000, there is no human surgeon who can get good margins to separate the cancerous growth from the healthy organs.
techno-ag
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Helicopter Ben said:

The people crying about this and pushing these narratives are almost certainly the ones leeching on the govt largesse.

I've been told not to cry for Argentina.
Trump will fix it.
YouBet
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wannaggie said:

Bunk Moreland said:

You can't make sweeping reforms to government bloat without undergoing a painful period while people have to recondition themselves that it's up to them to earn money, provide shelter and safety and feed their families.

This is unfortunately the part where I'm not sure Trump has the appetite. He wants a legacy more than anything else. I hope like hell he can withstand the downside of what truly reforming this country will have to take. Because it'd make him or anyone truly willing to do it the greatest president in history.
To me this issue is at the core of one of the biggest paradoxes of American politics. America's structure was set up for long term stability by ensuring a frequent turnover and peaceful transfer of power that is flexible and responsive to the electorate.

GOOD:
Congress significantly resets every 2 years. Presidency significantly resets every 4 years. So it's harder for evil factions to permanently capture governance. (Hence the rise of the bureaucratic deep state and TLAs as the source of evil acting unilaterally outside the will of the people.)

BAD:
When serious reforms are truly needed - i.e. the bureaucratic deep state and TLAs - there is no hope for sustained momentum from Congress/POTUS because every second of their terms is now spent exclusively on strategic positioning for the next election cycle.

I have always been conflicted about term limits, because I see merit in arguments on both sides and I don't think there's a conclusive winning argument. Ultimately it always comes back to who we elect. When our servants are good we want them to stay, when they're bad we want to eject them, but the bad ones have a tendency to become entrenched so are harder to eject without some baked in limits. On the other hand, the bad ones also have an easier time defeating the good ones in an election, because elections are inherently slanted against anyone who declines to use every trick available.

In the meantime, the instant the nation as a whole starts experiencing withdrawal from the bad policies, any reform momentum stops at the next election and we recycle back.

I do not see any way that our electoral system will permit serious reform of a $7 trillion deficit-spending deep state. The tumor has infiltrated the entire economy. The founders tried to protect us from this, but their great grandchildren failed. Once government becomes enormous AND a major sector of the economy, you cannot remove the tumor without cutting out a lot of the surrounding tissue. In a nation of 350,000,000 people vying for their share of $7,000,000,000,000, there is no human surgeon who can get good margins to separate the cancerous growth from the healthy organs.


Correct on all points.
aTmAg
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Recessions are corrections to past mistakes. Those mistakes pushed people into non-viable jobs in non-viable firms and industries. Those firms need to go under, and those jobs moved to viable firms. Those people will be unemployed in the interim, but will be far better off in the long term.

The same thing happened with Reagan in the early 80s. That recession wasn't his fault, that was the correction to all the mistakes of the 70s. If Reagan hadn't done the right thing, then those mistakes would have continued and the correction would have been even MORE painful as more jobs and firms would have needed to be corrected.
AggieVictor10
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Dill-Ag13 said:

Trump needs 8 years for what he wants to do, he's got 4


Not if he just stays in office.
hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. good times create weak men. and weak men create hard times.

less virtue signaling, more vice signaling.

Birds aren’t real
Lol,lmao
Ags4DaWin
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The good news for Trump is that 90% of the people in those worthless government jobs or jobs that were government teet adjacent or depemdent on government handouts voted for Kamala and Biden.

The forward momentum can be continued.

You just have to continue to motivate the producers to go back to the polls in 4 years.
evan_aggie
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I got back from Buenos Aires a couple of weeks ago. Went to Mendoza as well.


It's interesting what you read here vs see or observe.

Food was cheaper and especially eating out, but a coffee was still $3 as opposed to $5-6 here.

Bottled water $0.75-$1.00.

Appliances were insanely expensive if everyone is poor.

Only thing that seemed cheap were the Ubers, leather goods, and beef.
BuddysBud
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When Poland rooted out socialism they knew that it would be difficult but they got through it and ended up with a much better economy.
doubledog
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In every society and form of government there are winners and losers. The key is to promote freedom so that the people can determine their own destiny.
aTmAg
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In this video, Milei explains it:



What happened is that before prices were strictly controlled and that price ceilings existed everywhere. Meaning that equilibrium prices were ABOVE what the controlled prices were. So for example, a hot dog should cost $1 based on supply and demand, but the government set the price at $0.75.

So when they calculated the "poverty line" they added up expected expenses at poverty level, but they used the CONTROLLED prices, not the equilibrium prices. So on paper the poverty rate was 41%. Because 59% of the people made more than that poverty level. However, as we economically literate TexAgers know, price ceilings cause shortages. So even though you could theoretically buy a hot dog at $0.75, there were not enough hot dogs. So only say the first 75% of people could get the hot dogs and the remaining 25% got none.

When Milei eliminated price controls, the price of everything shot up to their equilibrium price. That made the poverty levels shoot up to 57%. That doesn't mean that 16% more people suddenly became poor, just that the stats became honest. Poverty levels really were that high all along. Sure enough Milei's policies have made that true poverty level fall to 46% since January. 11% fewer people are below poverty line in only 11 months.

So the notion that Milei "raised poverty level" is flat out wrong. Milei LOWERED them. The "increase" is the state moving up from it's false value to it's real value.
captkirk
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Quote:

hellBanger
@Bangershell11

ARGENTINA SOARS: JP Morgan Revises Forecast, Predicting 8.5% Annual GDP Growth
Muy
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YouBet said:

10andBOUNCE said:

Based on his handling of covid, I have a hard time seeing Trump see this one through. However he is surrounded by better people already, so that would be his saving Grace going forward.


I still think this is an unfair characterization. In the beginning, it was total fog of war and no one knew what the hell was happening. In hindsight, he also had people with very bad intentions who were trying to sabotage him. He pretty much reversed course after the initial round of spend and once we started realizing what the reality was.

The Democrats were the ones that ran with the ball and decided to 1984 it.


Exactly. Nobody can revise history that happened just 4 years ago.
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