There will be peace in Ukraine/Russia by Jan 20 and Biden will try to take the credit.

AgLA06 said:

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titan said:

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MB19 said:

---

Teslag said:

---

By the time he takes office I'm betting there's a ceasefire largely along current lines in Ukraine and by next summer there will be a peace deal in place with Ukraine joining NATO and formally ceding Crimea and other areas in the east to Russia.

---

Ukraine into NATO is an absolute red line that Russia will not accept.

---

Well, look at it their way. Would we accept Mexico or Canada joining a Chinese military alliance?

Its a fact can work with if have firm but sensible rather than belligerent policy.

---

That' rediculous.

It would be like saying we wouldn't be happy with Canada, Mexico, and Puerto Rico joining a defense alliance after we lost our grasp from a horrible invasion, dictator controlled extermination, and socialism for decades. Oh and we've taken back over the bahamas and Guam who just like them escaped, but weren't allowed to join.

---

You are adding elements. The problem with any analogy is they are usually only seeking to illustrate a psychological reality, not a literal or direct one. If they rebutted on details their point is missed.

Let it be rephrased.

What it is like is if Mexico was coming increasingly into the orbit of a Chinese military alliance, with a China currently recognized as rather hostilely disposed toward us agreed. Its right on our border. Since we are not a weak power, we wouldn't be happy with it. If you continued to destabilize the situation, there are US admins that might have invaded. If they did, the invasion would not be *all* Washington's fault -- but also a bit of China's.

That is the ONLY point making. It is purely a psychological comparison. Russia views NATO as a military alliance. Its expansion was threat to them.

This is not about justifications and rights and wrongs, but understanding the other perspective which is the foundation for any diplomacy that can work.

You can always choose conflict, and that's fine when you have set upon it. This is just about understanding a bit of what is going on.

Wabs said:

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PanzerAggie06 said:

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Wabs said:

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Ukrainian people are probably happier than anyone. Maybe now they can stop dying in an endless war.

---

Americans lecturing anyone about endless wars. That's rich. Sometimes our sense of self awareness is frighteningly out of touch. And to think the Ukrainians are going to be happy at the prospect of having to hand over vast swaths of their territory is another example of being frighteningly out of touch.

---

I'm a veteran of two wars, so I feel I can "lecture" on how horrific endless wars are. I am NOT "pro Russia". I want the killing to stop and both sides need to come to the table to figure out a damn solution.

---

I'm also a veteran of war so I suppose I also can "lecture" about such things.

This is the type of war Americans should get behind. Using a proxy to take on, and in this case ***** slap, a major adversary is the exact type of conflict we need to engage in when needed. It's costing us supplies and checks. No American boys are being blown to shreds in some far off land. We get to watch on TV.

Now, should are checks be of the size they are? Nope. While I believe we should send some aid to Ukraine the overwhelming vast majority of it should come from the coffers of European nations. This is their back yard not ours.

The only solution here is Vlad leaving Ukraine with no territorial gains. History supports standing up to these types of dirtbags.

The Dnipro-Donetsk region in Ukraine is a large basin of natural gas and oil. Also Crimea. That is largely what this has always been about RE Russia's motivations. They are land grabbing a large regional source of oil and gas reserves. The 'ethnic Russians' and 'nazi Ukrainians' and protecting border from NATO stuff is more cover story. Russia wouldn't be going through this massive cost if it wasn't for all that natural gas and oil to grab.

I am not convinced Trump administration is going to simply abandon Ukraine because this is very complicated and also depends on Russia as well as U.S. allies and a number of other actors. Besides Ukraine itself. At some point probably get to a North/South Korea sort of stalemate but we'll see how long it takes to eventually get there.

MB19 said:

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Teslag said:

---

By the time he takes office I'm betting there's a ceasefire largely along current lines in Ukraine and by next summer there will be a peace deal in place with Ukraine joining NATO and formally ceding Crimea and other areas in the east to Russia.

---

Ukraine into NATO is an absolute red line that Russia will not accept.

---

What exactly will Vlad do about it? Invade Ukraine? Oh, wait....

MB19 said:

---

Teslag said:

---

By the time he takes office I'm betting there's a ceasefire largely along current lines in Ukraine and by next summer there will be a peace deal in place with Ukraine joining NATO and formally ceding Crimea and other areas in the east to Russia.

---

Ukraine into NATO is an absolute red line that Russia will not accept.

---

Ukraine not in NATO just kicks the next invasion down the road a few years.

Ukraine in NATO ends any chance of another invasion.

HTownAg98 said:

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The problem I see with all of this if Russia gets to keep everything they've won, what's to stop them from trying again in another 5-10 years? Unlike Yeltsin, Putin is a bully, and no one has been willing to punch him in the nose. It seems like the west had fairly decent relations with Yeltsin and when Putin first came into power.

---

Ukraine being in NATO.

That ends this bull***** No more invasions.

HTownAg98 said:

---

The problem I see with all of this if Russia gets to keep everything they've won, what's to stop them from trying again in another 5-10 years? Unlike Yeltsin, Putin is a bully, and no one has been willing to punch him in the nose. It seems like the west had fairly decent relations with Yeltsin and when Putin first came into power.

---

This will be a very complex problem. You are correct. You can't let them keep everything. You are going to have to figure out something in between. Its not something can solve even theoretically in a few posts. Crimea is a little easier if you know the full history behind that -- where its going to get tricky is the 2022 war to present.

What we need to be aware of though, is what can only make it worse. Its why the failure to use real leverage is so severe, but that ineptitude and double-messaging admin is who had been installed after 2020.

She'll find a new gig, sooner or later.

Russian libs are in shambles today, as Navalny's daughter Darya has lost her job as well.

These sell-outs have never been for Russia. The alphabet agency assets in pure form. pic.twitter.com/mWR5254pNE

— Olga Bazova (@OlgaBazova) November 6, 2024

This stuff all ties together.

Ag with kids said:

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HTownAg98 said:

---

The problem I see with all of this if Russia gets to keep everything they've won, what's to stop them from trying again in another 5-10 years? Unlike Yeltsin, Putin is a bully, and no one has been willing to punch him in the nose. It seems like the west had fairly decent relations with Yeltsin and when Putin first came into power.

---

Ukraine being in NATO.

That ends this bull***** No more invasions.

---

Maybe if the US left NATO in some crazy scenario. NATO itself -- that's an idea. You see the catch-22 is we have insisted on an expansion even after the wrapping of the Cold War. So we currently have a situation were aa power that has chosen to speak as a de-facto belligerent would head a big alliance directly on their border. This from a Russia that unlike us, has nothing but bad experiences with borders, even from their own bad rulers.

Russia has always been something of a scoundrel and bully state --- this behavior is very similar to Tsarist Russia in the Balkans late 19th C and leading into WW I. So its not about them being good, but understanding that they are rational and you can work from that basis as the British Empire did at times in that frame. What they are very irrational about is border threat--- think of the Left on abortion. Its that emotional and thus dangerous for its capacity to make them do something stupid.

titan said:

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Ag with kids said:

---

HTownAg98 said:

---

The problem I see with all of this if Russia gets to keep everything they've won, what's to stop them from trying again in another 5-10 years? Unlike Yeltsin, Putin is a bully, and no one has been willing to punch him in the nose. It seems like the west had fairly decent relations with Yeltsin and when Putin first came into power.

---

Ukraine being in NATO.

That ends this bull***** No more invasions.

---

Maybe if the US left NATO in some crazy scenario. NATO itself -- that's an idea. You see the catch-22 is we have insisted on an expansion even after the wrapping of the Cold War. So we currently have a situation were aa power that has chosen to speak as a de-facto belligerent would head a big alliance directly on their border. This from a Russia that unlike us, has nothing but bad experiences with borders, even from their own bad rulers.

Russia has always been something of a scoundrel and bully state --- this behavior is very similar to Tsarist Russia in the Balkans late 19th C and leading into WW I. So its not about them being good, but understanding that they are rational and you can work from that basis as the British Empire did at times in that frame. What they are very irrational about is border threat--- think of the Left on abortion. Its that emotional and thus dangerous for its capacity to make them do something stupid.

---

I disagree.

The countries that spent 50+ years being subjugated by the USSR sought out NATO membership because they knew it would prevent Russia from invading them again.

They had suffered enough and didn't want to do it again.

When Sweden and Finland saw Russia invade Ukraine yet again, even THEY decided it would be better than going alone as they have done for years.

That is true. But what are you disagreeing with? That Russia sees it that way? That's the only point.

This century we have generally acted like 1991 didn't happen. You even routinely hear them called communist when if anything the Bidenites were more in that direction of late. So its created a situation where too much has been left just to wither and regress.

As said, now that Russia has invaded Ukraine --THEY have created a problem for themselves like we did with anti-proliferation - where one's own actions undermine one's desire or even security. Yes, they have created a situation where it makes it seem only NATO membership can keep one safe. Yet there can be no peace with that because it is too much a redline.

The out of the box approach might be to bring them in also, where you act as enforcer of ALL borders. But I suspect there might be right wing opposition to that. So no easy answers here. Just knowing what won't work is where must begin.

Fortunately, if any can thread that needle it might be an admin with such diverse background as has just been elected and not so tied to directly benefiting from conflict.

Ag with kids said:

---

MB19 said:

---

Teslag said:

---

By the time he takes office I'm betting there's a ceasefire largely along current lines in Ukraine and by next summer there will be a peace deal in place with Ukraine joining NATO and formally ceding Crimea and other areas in the east to Russia.

---

Ukraine into NATO is an absolute red line that Russia will not accept.

---

Ukraine not in NATO just kicks the next invasion down the road a few years.

Ukraine in NATO ends any chance of another invasion.

---

Can't be. We've been assured by the Russian apologists that they only invaded Ukraine because they might join NATO. Surely Russia would go to all out war instead of a special military operation if they were to join.

titan said:

---

That is true. But what are you disagreeing with? That Russia sees it that way? That's the only point.

This century we have generally acted like 1991 didn't happen. You even routinely hear them called communist when if anything the Bidenites were more in that direction of late. So its created a situation where too much has been left just to wither and regress.

As said, now that Russia has invaded Ukraine --THEY have created a problem for themselves like we did with anti-proliferation - where one's own actions undermine one's desire or even security. Yes, they have created a situation where it makes it seem only NATO membership can keep one safe. Yet there can be no peace with that because it is too much a redline.

The out of the box approach might be to bring them in also, where you act as enforcer of ALL borders. But I suspect there might be right wing opposition to that. So no easy answers here. Just knowing what won't work is where must begin.

Fortunately, if any can thread that needle it might be an admin with such diverse background as has just been elected and not so tied to directly benefiting from conflict.

---

I just don't see Putin giving up anything, as that will be viewed as a sign of weakness. And if there's one thing autocrats really hate, it's appearing weak. I just don't see a way out for him, short of a soft coup where he and his cronies get to go live somewhere in exile. But the destabilizing effects that would have within Russia would be hard to fathom.

Flavius Agximus said:

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AgLA06 said:

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No Spin Ag said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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Trump is not isolationist. He just doesn't like fighting stupid pointless forever wars that don't need to be fought out of weakness and indecisiveness.

He's already said that hostilities will have to cease and serious negotiations take place to end the war in pragmatic terms. Ukraine will have to be willing to bargain territory and Russia will have to be serious or Trump might actually give Ukraine a flood of resources they can begin to win decisively with.

No more just feeding cash and men into a pointless waste. I hope he follows through and forces a real decisive end to it.

---

This is how I see it going as well.

Fact is the war is at a point where it's a standstill for both sides, even with the North Koreans thrown in as fodder. Putin won't get Ukraine, and Zalensky won't get back what Putin has taken, but it will be over.

Plus, once it's over and done with, the American companies can swoop into Ukraine and get wealthy beyond belief with all the rebuilding that will be done.

I can see Ukraine looking amazing compared to how it was even before the invasion. As a plus, I think Ukraine will be let into NATO, and in the end, while Putin did take some land, he also helped Ukraine rebuild itself into something better and helped it get into NATO.

Fair enough for me,

---

Just one problem with that. The parts Russia now controls are the parts of Ukraine that are vitally important to the USA and Europe for a wide variety of natural resources. Giving that control to Russia is like giving Iraq or Saudi oil to Iran. And people chearlead it without a clue.

---

That's just propaganda. The only resources Ukraine has that are vitally important to the US are its ability to launder money for our political class.

---

Perfect example of tinfoil hat fantasy by the far right that makes intelligent conversation impossible.

titan said:

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AgLA06 said:

---

titan said:

---

MB19 said:

---

Teslag said:

---

By the time he takes office I'm betting there's a ceasefire largely along current lines in Ukraine and by next summer there will be a peace deal in place with Ukraine joining NATO and formally ceding Crimea and other areas in the east to Russia.

---

Ukraine into NATO is an absolute red line that Russia will not accept.

---

Well, look at it their way. Would we accept Mexico or Canada joining a Chinese military alliance?

Its a fact can work with if have firm but sensible rather than belligerent policy.

---

That' rediculous.

It would be like saying we wouldn't be happy with Canada, Mexico, and Puerto Rico joining a defense alliance after we lost our grasp from a horrible invasion, dictator controlled extermination, and socialism for decades. Oh and we've taken back over the bahamas and Guam who just like them escaped, but weren't allowed to join.

---

You are adding elements. The problem with any analogy is they are usually only seeking to illustrate a psychological reality, not a literal or direct one. If they rebutted on details their point is missed.

Let it be rephrased.

What it is like is if Mexico was coming increasingly into the orbit of a Chinese military alliance, with a China currently recognized as rather hostilely disposed toward us agreed. Its right on our border. Since we are not a weak power, we wouldn't be happy with it. If you continued to destabilize the situation, there are US admins that might have invaded. If they did, the invasion would not be *all* Washington's fault -- but also a bit of China's.

That is the ONLY point making. It is purely a psychological comparison. Russia views NATO as a military alliance. Its expansion was threat to them.

This is not about justifications and rights and wrongs, but understanding the other perspective which is the foundation for any diplomacy that can work.

You can always choose conflict, and that's fine when you have set upon it. This is just about understanding a bit of what is going on.

---

Just BS justification to invade a sovereign country we have a defense agreement to specifically stop. It doesn't matter why.

No one cares why a murderer justified their crime. They still get the death penalty.

AgLA06 said:

---

Flavius Agximus said:

---

AgLA06 said:

---

No Spin Ag said:

---

MouthBQ98 said:

---

Trump is not isolationist. He just doesn't like fighting stupid pointless forever wars that don't need to be fought out of weakness and indecisiveness.

He's already said that hostilities will have to cease and serious negotiations take place to end the war in pragmatic terms. Ukraine will have to be willing to bargain territory and Russia will have to be serious or Trump might actually give Ukraine a flood of resources they can begin to win decisively with.

No more just feeding cash and men into a pointless waste. I hope he follows through and forces a real decisive end to it.

---

This is how I see it going as well.

Fact is the war is at a point where it's a standstill for both sides, even with the North Koreans thrown in as fodder. Putin won't get Ukraine, and Zalensky won't get back what Putin has taken, but it will be over.

Plus, once it's over and done with, the American companies can swoop into Ukraine and get wealthy beyond belief with all the rebuilding that will be done.

I can see Ukraine looking amazing compared to how it was even before the invasion. As a plus, I think Ukraine will be let into NATO, and in the end, while Putin did take some land, he also helped Ukraine rebuild itself into something better and helped it get into NATO.

Fair enough for me,

---

Just one problem with that. The parts Russia now controls are the parts of Ukraine that are vitally important to the USA and Europe for a wide variety of natural resources. Giving that control to Russia is like giving Iraq or Saudi oil to Iran. And people chearlead it without a clue.

---

That's just propaganda. The only resources Ukraine has that are vitally important to the US are its ability to launder money for our political class.

---

Perfect example of tinfoil hat fantasy by the far right that makes intelligent conversation impossible.

---

You make a provably false statement about resources in the Ukraine being of vital importance to the US, and I'm the tinfoil hat conspiracist? Fight your forever war with someone else's money, neocon.

I had an excellent call with President @realDonaldTrump and congratulated him on his historic landslide victory—his tremendous campaign made this result possible. I praised his family and team for their great work.

We agreed to maintain close dialogue and advance our…

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 6, 2024

AgLA06 said:

---

Just BS justification to invade a sovereign country we have a defense agreement to specifically stop. It doesn't matter why.

No one cares why a murderer justified their crime. They still get the death penalty.

---

If you're talking about Ukraine, there is no defense agreement that provides security guarantees, merely security assurance, and the agreement itself is unclear whether it's even applicable in a non-nuclear conflict.

Teslag said:

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Trump was the first to authorize lethal aid for Ukraine. He also gave Speaker Johnson the green light on the latest aid package. Trump also loves american businesses, which includes the MIC.

Zelensky will be fine and well funded going forward.

---

Remember when Trump was president and he worked with Zelenskyy on a few things and the left called him a horrible human being and that Trump was working with a bad guy. Then all of a sudden he became a hero with the left.

I remember it.

It's funny how some of the left targets become heroes when they go against Trump or the Republicans.

annie88 said:

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Teslag said:

---

Trump was the first to authorize lethal aid for Ukraine. He also gave Speaker Johnson the green light on the latest aid package. Trump also loves american businesses, which includes the MIC.

Zelensky will be fine and well funded going forward.

---

Remember when Trump was president and he worked with Zelenskyy on a few things and the left called him a horrible human being and that Trump was working with a bad guy. Then all of a sudden he became a hero with the left.

I remember it.

It's funny how some of the left targets become heroes when they go against Trump or the Republicans.

---

The left is nothing if not logically inconsistent and incapable of pragmatism.

The war has to come to a close. And both sides might not be happy. Ukraine will give up some land, but in return they will have a defense pact with NATO without becoming a member of NATO. Russia won't like the defense pact, but they will gain territory which is occupied mostly by Russians.

titan said:

---

That is true. But what are you disagreeing with? That Russia sees it that way? That's the only point.

This century we have generally acted like 1991 didn't happen. You even routinely hear them called communist when if anything the Bidenites were more in that direction of late. So its created a situation where too much has been left just to wither and regress.

As said, now that Russia has invaded Ukraine --THEY have created a problem for themselves like we did with anti-proliferation - where one's own actions undermine one's desire or even security. Yes, they have created a situation where it makes it seem only NATO membership can keep one safe. Yet there can be no peace with that because it is too much a redline.

The out of the box approach might be to bring them in also, where you act as enforcer of ALL borders. But I suspect there might be right wing opposition to that. So no easy answers here. Just knowing what won't work is where must begin.

Fortunately, if any can thread that needle it might be an admin with such diverse background as has just been elected and not so tied to directly benefiting from conflict.

---

That we have insisted on expansion.

It's not the US or NATO going out and looking to get new members.

It's countries that fear Russia that come to NATO looking to join.

I think it's a very important distinction.

And I doubt Russia under Putin would actually join NATO because he wouldn't accept the limitations it would put on him..

BTW, Putin uses that trope of NATO expanding as his propaganda reason to do things he wanted to do anyways. It's just a convenient thing for him to put the blame on NATO...

Russia has bussed a lot of people in from Russia proper and most folks who don't want to be there and are able have moved west. So demographics have already pretty much taken care of themselves.

The biggest question is whether Russia is allowed to take possession of the land they've claimed is theirs but don't militarily control. That's one of the largest sticking points.

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

Ag with kids said:

---

MB19 said:

---

Teslag said:

---

By the time he takes office I'm betting there's a ceasefire largely along current lines in Ukraine and by next summer there will be a peace deal in place with Ukraine joining NATO and formally ceding Crimea and other areas in the east to Russia.

---

Ukraine into NATO is an absolute red line that Russia will not accept.

---

Ukraine not in NATO just kicks the next invasion down the road a few years.

Ukraine in NATO ends any chance of another invasion.

---

Can't be. We've been assured by the Russian apologists that they only invaded Ukraine because they might join NATO. Surely Russia would go to all out war instead of a special military operation if they were to join.

---

Hahaha...true...

They might huff and puff but that's it.

Putin likes being a billionaire. He won't **** that up by using nukes against NATO.

And he's seen his military get kicked in the balls by little Ukraine. He knows that NATO would decimate it in days.

HTownAg98 said:

---

titan said:

---

That is true. But what are you disagreeing with? That Russia sees it that way? That's the only point.

This century we have generally acted like 1991 didn't happen. You even routinely hear them called communist when if anything the Bidenites were more in that direction of late. So its created a situation where too much has been left just to wither and regress.

As said, now that Russia has invaded Ukraine --THEY have created a problem for themselves like we did with anti-proliferation - where one's own actions undermine one's desire or even security. Yes, they have created a situation where it makes it seem only NATO membership can keep one safe. Yet there can be no peace with that because it is too much a redline.

The out of the box approach might be to bring them in also, where you act as enforcer of ALL borders. But I suspect there might be right wing opposition to that. So no easy answers here. Just knowing what won't work is where must begin.

Fortunately, if any can thread that needle it might be an admin with such diverse background as has just been elected and not so tied to directly benefiting from conflict.

---

I just don't see Putin giving up anything, as that will be viewed as a sign of weakness. And if there's one thing autocrats really hate, it's appearing weak. I just don't see a way out for him, short of a soft coup where he and his cronies get to go live somewhere in exile. But the destabilizing effects that would have within Russia would be hard to fathom.

---

He's going to have to give up something. Otherwise Ukraine will keep their chunk of Russian soil.

That little chunk will be valuable enough to get a much bigger chunk of eastern Ukraine back.

AtticusMatlock said:

---

I had an excellent call with President @realDonaldTrump and congratulated him on his historic landslide victory—his tremendous campaign made this result possible. I praised his family and team for their great work.

We agreed to maintain close dialogue and advance our…

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 6, 2024

---

Uh oh...

3...2...1...Democrats calling for Trump to be investigated and prosecuted for meddling in foreign policy as a private citizen.

Redassag94 said:

---

The war has to come to a close. And both sides might not be happy. Ukraine will give up some land, but in return they will have a defense pact with NATO without becoming a member of NATO. Russia won't like the defense pact, but they will gain territory which is occupied mostly by Russians.

---

That may be the diplomatic and pragmatic way to do it.

Not in NATO for the politics, but effectively in NATO for the defense...

Not another dime to Ukraine. We need decades of fiscal correction to put Americans first.

Ag with kids said:

---

AtticusMatlock said:

---

I had an excellent call with President @realDonaldTrump and congratulated him on his historic landslide victory—his tremendous campaign made this result possible. I praised his family and team for their great work.

We agreed to maintain close dialogue and advance our…

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 6, 2024

---

Uh oh...

3...2...1...Democrats calling for Trump to be investigated and prosecuted for meddling in foreign policy as a private citizen.

---

Yep, and just like that, Zelenskyy is a bad guy again.

RAB87 said:

---

Not another dime to Ukraine. We need decades of fiscal correction to put Americans first.

---

On the flip side, with a favorable deal that keeps the right resources in Ukrainian hands, we could recover what has been spent and reap significant future rewards participating in developing the energy reserves off the Ukrainian coast. Those could greatly benefit the US long term if kept out of Russian hands. Not to mention other venues for economic investment and redevelopment. Just a thought.

As long as you can keep the political class's grubby mitts out of most of it on both sides, of course.

They need to figure out where the donbas line needs to be drawn and end this nonsense

RAB87 said:

---

Not another dime to Ukraine. We need decades of fiscal correction to put Americans first.

---

Should we not fund Israel either? They've been hated it seems for an eternity. Should it just be their own problem to deal with?

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZP8LY4Byc/

Redassag94 said:

---

The war has to come to a close. And both sides might not be happy. Ukraine will give up some land, but in return they will have a defense pact with NATO without becoming a member of NATO. Russia won't like the defense pact, but they will gain territory which is occupied mostly by Russians.

---

Why?

Why do you care if Russians and Ukrainians want to kill each other?