Any way to find those on Election Day 2020?

Or 2016?

Widened from 2020 to 2024!

How accurate have these been in the past?

Trump was never really close in 2020 after September
2020 voting odds

They missed big in 2016. I think they had Hillary over 70% on Election Day morning. I don't remember 2020

Putting down another $500 on Trump with a credit card advance. Who wants join me?

DanielDay said:

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Putting down another $500 on Trump with a credit card advance. Who wants join me?

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Just took out a 401k loan to place my bet!!

No wonder you are a lib. I bet you really can't wait for Kamala to stick to the "rich"

DanielDay said:

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Putting down another $500 on Trump with a credit card advance. Who wants join me?

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Genius, Trump wins you get a payout, Dems win and you just wait for them to cancel debt

Also there was a thread where I explained a better emotional hedge for those saying they wanted to do that. I am not an emotional hedge guy

You can place a bet or just buy Trump Media stock DJT. Went from around 15 to 50 when odds started moving in Trump's favor. It's up 10% this morning!

P.U.T.U said:

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Trump was never really close in 2020 after September
2020 voting odds

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He was on election night. I went to bed with him -300 or so. Woke up and that had flipped.

Right, but I don't think he was ever up before Election Day.

Ag13 said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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Trump was never really close in 2020 after September
2020 voting odds

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He was on election night. I went to bed with him -300 or so. Woke up and that had flipped.

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Biden got as high as +700 on election night if I'm remembering right and I almost went big on him as a hedge. Only didn't because it was throwing money away if Trump won. Ready to do it tonight if that happens with Harris.

Ag13 said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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Trump was never really close in 2020 after September
2020 voting odds

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He was on election night. I went to bed with him -300 or so. Woke up and that had flipped.

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On Predictit and others he briefly went up to about 80% the evening of 2020 election right before Fox News and others started making the claims about not being able to call Arizona.

B-1 83 said:

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Any way to find those on Election Day 2020?

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Trump was like an 85% (-500) favorite around 9:00 election night in 2020 on Bovada. Then the steal set in. I remember, because I was closely monitoring it.

Beerosch said:

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B-1 83 said:

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Any way to find those on Election Day 2020?

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Trump was like an 85% (-500) favorite around 9:00 election night in 2020 on Bovada. Then the steal set in. I remember, because I was closely monitoring it.

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That doesn't really jive with this at all…

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/

Before the polls closed, Biden was a 65%-35% favorite over Trump.

Hillary was like a 80%-20% favorite over Trump.

B-1 83 said:

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Beerosch said:

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B-1 83 said:

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Any way to find those on Election Day 2020?

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Trump was like an 85% (-500) favorite around 9:00 election night in 2020 on Bovada. Then the steal set in. I remember, because I was closely monitoring it.

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That doesn't really jive with this at all…

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/

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It's absolutely what happened. This is part of what made what happened over night so crazy for a lot of people. It wasn't that Trump was close, he was a gigantic favorite.

Announcement:

Donald Trump has moved all the way up to being the -600 favorite (85.71% implied odds) at Bovada to win the 2020 US Presidential Election. #ElectionNight #Elections2020

Updated odds:

Donald Trump -600
Joe Biden +375

— Odds Shark (@OddsShark) November 4, 2020

Who knows what time of day those odds you have were. I know what I said is correct.

I think when comparing this year to 2016 is comes down to if there are "hidden voters" on either side that have not shown up in polling data. Obviously there were hidden trump voters in 2016 and the markets didn't reflect them because the entire data industry had no idea Trump was connecting to traditional nonvoters.

So 8 years and 3 campaign cycle later the question becomes what is likely, 1) No Hidden voters 2) Hidden Harris Voters 3) Hidden Trump Voters

It seems like Harris campaign is counting on Republican women and young people to outperform in the way Trump's nonvoters did in 2016.

The Trump campaign is counting on an even deeper cultivation of the traditional male non-voter coupled with winning back white college educated males with enough minority male crossover and women that like men being men and babies being born.


Appears the betting markets think Harris doesn't have the hidden voters Trump had in 2016.

If I remember, the Yen was dropping too, and then I remember staying up until about 1 wondering why swing states counts weren't moving or updating. I woke up at 5, and well, we know.

00 said:

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If I remember, the Yen was dropping too, and then I remember staying up until about 1 wondering why swing states counts weren't moving or updating. I woke up at 5, and well, we know.

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Yes, there were posts updating the Chinese markets well into the night that were indicating a Trump win.

This is correct. I went to my text message history with a friend I was going back and forth with, and I have the betting odds from around 9:00. The next text was a tweet (that has since been deleted) of the yuan tanking around the same time.

We need this one!

Watching the Robinhood brokerage app...

On Sunday afternoon,
$33 mil "invested" in picking Trump to win
$34 mil on Harris


As of right now:
$68 mil "invested" in picking Trump to win
$53 mil in Harris

yall are reminding me how absurd the cheating was in 2020. an absolute trainwreck where people just smiled at you while they were cheating. like they pitied how stupid you were to believe you belonged.

somewhat like this.




I may just quit my job in oil and gas today so they dont fire me next week.

Flying Crowbar said:

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Or 2016?

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the NY Times betting tool showed in 2016 election night

Clinton 92
Trump 8

GE said:

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Ag13 said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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Trump was never really close in 2020 after September
2020 voting odds

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He was on election night. I went to bed with him -300 or so. Woke up and that had flipped.

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Biden got as high as +700 on election night if I'm remembering right and I almost went big on him as a hedge. Only didn't because it was throwing money away if Trump won. Ready to do it tonight if that happens with Harris.

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If you want an emotional hedge, makes sense to go in on Harris now, right? Its only going to get worse from here on out.

How much money are you willing to put down on Harris, and actually still want Trump to win? :-)