Several weeks from now (with VBM states fronting the Pacific Coast accounting for most of the 9.6M), I expect the final % ages to be 50-48%, with a Trump eventual lead of 3-3.5M.
(2/2)

— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) November 7, 2024

NV should be called - 50k gap at 92% in with only 116k outstanding votes

It will happen today. Ralston eating crow is satisfying.

What the hell happenedwith Ellis county?

Ag In Ok said:

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What the hell happenedwith Ellis county?

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Well it is still quite red (65%) but yeah the slight shift left when everything else went right is odd.... my only explanation is bleeding from southern Dallas county into Ellis.

Zombie Jon Snow said:

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Ag In Ok said:

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What the hell happenedwith Ellis county?

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Well it is still quite red (65%) but yeah the slight shift left when everything else went right is odd.... my only explanation is bleeding from southern Dallas county into Ellis.

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Tons and tons of new growth. If you drive through old neighborhoods it's 10:1 Trump signs in every yard. New neighborhoods have less political signs but are 3:1 Harris I'd estimate.

Jack Ruby said:

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I'll be flipping back and forth between Colbert and Kimmel soon to soak in some delicious copium.

And I never watch late night garbage.

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I made a point to stay up to watch Kimmel. I stopped watching him in 2017. He made a comment about "hate-watching" (tuning in just to see his lamentations) and that some viewers might be disappointing. I was. He still isn't very funny.

And people still don't call him on his bad parody of Mexicans

I' grew up in Red Oak. A lot of new growth and demographics have changed quite a bit.

Zombie Jon Snow said:

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Been telling people for years that Hispanics would shift right and keep Texas Red.

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Got Tarrant back! Is Tarrant still the largest R county in the nation?

What is taking so long in PA senate race

In regard to Lake and Arizona:

BCG Disciple said:

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Zombie Jon Snow said:

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Been telling people for years that Hispanics would shift right and keep Texas Red.

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Got Tarrant back! Is Tarrant still the largest R county in the nation?

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Yes.

Interestingly despite going Red in the presidential results Tarrant narrowly went for Allred over Cruz by 1200 votes 400K to 399K in the Senate race. Probably just the Cruz ice trip debacle costing him compared to Trump.

DonHenley said:

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What is taking so long in PA senate race

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There is one county that had a ballot misprint. People who voted in person filled out their ballots but the machines weren't taking them because they weren't properly aligned on the scanner. They are doing a manual process for those ballots. It looks like that's a relatively red county so it should only help him. They are manually counting something like 35,000 ballots. It's a small county so it's just taking a lot of time.

It's also the last Pennsylvania legislature seat outstanding and whoever wins that race will determine who controls the Pennsylvania House.

AtticusMatlock said:

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DonHenley said:

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What is taking so long in PA senate race

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There is one county that had a ballot misprint. People who voted in person filled out their ballots but the machines weren't taking them because they weren't properly aligned on the scanner. They are doing a manual process for those ballots. It looks like that's a relatively red county so it should only help him. They are manually counting something like 35,000 ballots. It's a small county so it's just taking a lot of time.

It's also the last Pennsylvania legislature seat outstanding and whoever wins that race will determine who controls the Pennsylvania House.

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House Update:



Morning update: Nothing new in terms of calls yet but just going over some things on the trends.

CA races are trending almost exactly like 2022. There was a mini red wave out there in the last election and it looks like it is holding up, and even growing in some areas. Young Kim (GOP Rep in CA 40) is trending 3 points better than in 2022 when she won by 10 points. The gerrymandered red areas of CA seem to be getting redder.

The designed "competitive" districts in CA are trending red as well.

CA 47 is a competitive district and potential flip opportunity with Dem Katie Porter not running for reelection. The GOP candidate Baugh is running slightly ahead.

Remember in CA there are a lot of mail ballots that will take forever to count but the GOP is pushing mail there too, so as they come in and get counted there are not necessarily going to be wild swings.

Nebraska 2 needs to be called. Big hold for GOP in an area the Dems spent a lot of money trying to flip.

MD 6 is a blue district but agonizingly close. The Dem looks like she will squeak out the win as more ballots come in.

222-213 seems like the most probable outcome, but with an upset in CA47 we could see 223-212.

NV Senate called for Rosen.

will25u said:

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NV Senate called for Rosen.

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Damn it.

When does PA get called? at 98.4%, does Casey have a chance to catch McCormick?

Looks like Lake has gained a little bit on Gallego since last night, but AZ is still at only 68.88%.

McCormick looks relatively safe IMO.

Lake may be a coin flip. She's still in the running.

rocky the dog said:

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People,

Zoom in on the driver if you need to. This may be the best one I've seen in a while!!!!

Ag In Ok said:

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What the hell happenedwith Ellis county?

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We live right at the intersection of Tarrant/Johnson/Ellis counties. There has been a ton of white flight to Ellis from Dallas and Ft. Worth, many who work in one of the big medical systems (Methodist has a big hospital just north of there in Mansfield and a smaller one in Midlothian, and Baylor has a hospital in Waxahachie). Mansfield, Midlothian and Waxahachie are all exploding. It's also a really popular place for coastal transplants looking to live on the fringes of DFW.

chills- even from an Air Force officer!

let's gooooo!!

From the barracks at the Virginia Military Institute this morning when it was announced that ⁦@realDonaldTrump⁩ was re-elected to the WH. pic.twitter.com/3zfALoVm66

— Ned Ryun (@nedryun) November 6, 2024

Looks like the Dem House incumbent is going to hold on in Maine 2 despite Trump winning the district. Was a hopeful GOP flip. Not going to change the math. Still looking at a likely 222-213 majority.