Do we know if the already counted ~60% includes IPEV? I was assuming it did, and all that are left are ED ballots.

the most cool guy said:

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2023NCAggies said:

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fc2112 said:

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the most cool guy said:

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FTAG 2000 said:

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CNN has called PA for McCormick.

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That is great news!

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Which is where i think it ends.

Maybe NV comes through, but 53 vs 54 is just fine.

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Lake has a great shot

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Yeah that's not happening

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Noted, now lets see how it turns out

FbgTxAg said:

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Apologies if already posted.

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Already posted and already debunked.

I went to the Maricopa County website and they don't have a set schedule for releasing ballot totals.

Apparently the in-person election day vote is already in. They estimate only 10 to 15% of total ballots will be in person voting.

However. people who filled out a mail-in ballot had the option of coming in person to drop it off at a voting center on election day and those have yet to be processed. In general these are going to be more high propensity GOP voters.

What's already been posted are the ballots on election day combined with the mail ballots they were able to canvas and process on election day.

The opening, verification, adjucation process is time-consuming and each ballot has to be seen by multiple people and representatives from each party before it can be put into the tabulator machine.

I wish they could give us an update and tell us how far along they are in the process, do regular releases of ballot counts, etc.

And yeah, they are expecting this to take up to 13 days.

Should be noted the GOP was encouraging early voting and vote by mail this cycle. So should not expect wildly high swings for the Democrats when the vote totals start coming in.

It looks like there are still thousands of outstanding ballots in Cambria county, PA with only 37% in. The county so far has been 57-40 for McCormick. He should add a few thousand margin if that split holds.

AtticusMatlock said:

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I went to the Maricopa County website and they don't have a set schedule for releasing ballot totals.

Apparently the in-person election day vote is already in. They estimate only 10 to 15% of total ballots will be in person voting.

However. people who filled out a mail-in ballot had the option of coming in person to drop it off at a voting center on election day and those have yet to be processed. In general these are going to be more high propensity GOP voters.

What's already been posted are the ballots on election day combined with the mail ballots they were able to canvas and process on election day.

The opening, verification, adjucation process is time-consuming and each ballot has to be seen by multiple people and representatives from each party before it can be put into the tabulator machine.

I wish they could give us an update and tell us how far along they are in the process, do regular releases of ballot counts, etc.

And yeah, they are expecting this to take up to 13 days.

Should be noted the GOP was encouraging early voting and vote by mail this cycle. So should not expect wildly high swings for the Democrats when the vote totals start coming in.

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Is there an estimated split on these ballots?

AtticusMatlock said:

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I went to the Maricopa County website and they don't have a set schedule for releasing ballot totals.

Apparently the in-person election day vote is already in. They estimate only 10 to 15% of total ballots will be in person voting.

However. people who filled out a mail-in ballot had the option of coming in person to drop it off at a voting center on election day and those have yet to be processed. In general these are going to be more high propensity GOP voters.

What's already been posted are the ballots on election day combined with the mail ballots they were able to canvas and process on election day.

The opening, verification, adjucation process is time-consuming and each ballot has to be seen by multiple people and representatives from each party before it can be put into the tabulator machine.

I wish they could give us an update and tell us how far along they are in the process, do regular releases of ballot counts, etc.

And yeah, they are expecting this to take up to 13 days.

Should be noted the GOP was encouraging early voting and vote by mail this cycle. So should not expect wildly high swings for the Democrats when the vote totals start coming in.

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Seems like the big question for AZ ballots is which way the Is broke? Anybody seen any info on that yet? Might give a hint on what to expect in remaining ballots with Inds being around 1/3 of the electorate.

I have no idea. The problem with Maricopa County is that it's always so opaque. We don't know how many ballots are out. They have been radio silent as far as I can tell. I'll try to peruse some local news sites to see if anyone has said anything about the ballot count or for expecting an update tonight. I know in 2020 and 2022 they would try to drop in regular intervals but right now I haven't seen anything that indicates their intentions.

Quote:

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I went to the Maricopa County website and they don't have a set schedule for releasing ballot totals.

Apparently the in-person election day vote is already in. They estimate only 10 to 15% of total ballots will be in person voting.

However. people who filled out a mail-in ballot had the option of coming in person to drop it off at a voting center on election day and those have yet to be processed. In general these are going to be more high propensity GOP voters.

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You know who knows how many mail in ballots are outstanding?

Runbeck. They assign a barcode to each voter on the outside envelope, retrieve (and I use that term lightly) from drop boxes and the Main Post Office, scan every single one and compare the two lists.

Runbeck just refuses to tell election supervisors what that number is. They did that in 2020 in Maricopa County and continued to deliver "mail in ballots" for at least ten days after the election.

FireAg said:

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Don't you have a Covid booster to go jab somewhere?

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No

SwigAg11 said:

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AtticusMatlock said:

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I went to the Maricopa County website and they don't have a set schedule for releasing ballot totals.

Apparently the in-person election day vote is already in. They estimate only 10 to 15% of total ballots will be in person voting.

However. people who filled out a mail-in ballot had the option of coming in person to drop it off at a voting center on election day and those have yet to be processed. In general these are going to be more high propensity GOP voters.

What's already been posted are the ballots on election day combined with the mail ballots they were able to canvas and process on election day.

The opening, verification, adjucation process is time-consuming and each ballot has to be seen by multiple people and representatives from each party before it can be put into the tabulator machine.

I wish they could give us an update and tell us how far along they are in the process, do regular releases of ballot counts, etc.

And yeah, they are expecting this to take up to 13 days.

Should be noted the GOP was encouraging early voting and vote by mail this cycle. So should not expect wildly high swings for the Democrats when the vote totals start coming in.

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Is there an estimated split on these ballots?

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it's mail-in, probably won't be GOP friendly

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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I went to the Maricopa County website and they don't have a set schedule for releasing ballot totals.

Apparently the in-person election day vote is already in. They estimate only 10 to 15% of total ballots will be in person voting.

However. people who filled out a mail-in ballot had the option of coming in person to drop it off at a voting center on election day and those have yet to be processed. In general these are going to be more high propensity GOP voters.

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You know who knows how many mail in ballots are outstanding?

Runbeck. They assign a barcode to each voter on the outside envelope, retrieve (and I use that term lightly) from drop boxes and the Main Post Office, scan every single one and compare the two lists.

Runbeck just refuses to tell election supervisors what that number is. They did that in 2020 in Maricopa County and continued to deliver "mail in ballots" for at least ten days after the election.

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Are observers allowed at their facility to supervise what they are doing? If not it seems like a glaring hole in ballot security for them to be in charge of both printing and scanning ballots and to be the only ones who know the actual numbers.

Pinal County just updated. GOP incumbent has taken a tiny lead.

SwigAg11 said:

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It looks like there are still thousands of outstanding ballots in Cambria county, PA with only 37% in. The county so far has been 57-40 for McCormick. He should add a few thousand margin if that split holds.

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WTH is up with Cambria County

The GOP and Dem election workers scan the ballot envelope and open the envelopes at a table. They examine the ballot together to look for deficiencies. Then it gets put into the tabulator. If there are deficiencies it will go to another room where more bipartisan workers look at it to determine what the issues are and how to resolve them.

Cambria County, PA had a ballot counter machine error early on election day and are counting everything by hand.

https://www.tribdem.com/news/election-2024-cambria-county-still-tallying-votes-no-winner-yet-in-72nd-legislative-district-race/article_f15e6250-9c56-11ef-a20a-ab5d2356121b.html

This is the county that extended hours to 10pm on election night.

Quote:

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Are observers allowed at their facility to supervise what they are doing? If not it seems like a glaring hole in ballot security for them to be in charge of both printing and scanning ballots and to be the only ones who know the actual numbers.

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Not really. Huge warehouse. Two observers allowed. Plus as a private company, Runbeck is not subject to state open records requests. They have zero transparency despite having on their website they are fully auditable, they don't allow audits, by anyone. Not even the state election officials.

Oh, and Cambria County's state legislative race will also determine the majority in the Pennsylvania House.

Everyone in the state is watching them.

The problem is there was a slight misprint on the in-person ballots which made them unreadable by the machine. The mail in ballots were apparently not affected.

They are being counted by hand but also duplicated by hand by bipartisan teams to run them through the machines.

On top of that, the late arriving voters were given provisional ballots which have to be processed differently than the regular ballots.

It's going to take time.

https://penncapital-star.com/election-2024/pennsylvania-house-majority-hangs-on-cambria-county-district-where-votes-are-still-being-counted/

Quote:

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The GOP and Dem election workers scan the ballot envelope and open the envelopes at a table. They examine the ballot together to look for deficiencies. Then it gets put into the tabulator. If there are deficiencies it will go to another room where more bipartisan workers look at it to determine what the issues are and how to resolve them.

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In theory, only.

This is at the tabulation center. There are tons of poll watchers there.

txags92 said:

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AtticusMatlock said:

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I went to the Maricopa County website and they don't have a set schedule for releasing ballot totals.

Apparently the in-person election day vote is already in. They estimate only 10 to 15% of total ballots will be in person voting.

However. people who filled out a mail-in ballot had the option of coming in person to drop it off at a voting center on election day and those have yet to be processed. In general these are going to be more high propensity GOP voters.

What's already been posted are the ballots on election day combined with the mail ballots they were able to canvas and process on election day.

The opening, verification, adjucation process is time-consuming and each ballot has to be seen by multiple people and representatives from each party before it can be put into the tabulator machine.

I wish they could give us an update and tell us how far along they are in the process, do regular releases of ballot counts, etc.

And yeah, they are expecting this to take up to 13 days.

Should be noted the GOP was encouraging early voting and vote by mail this cycle. So should not expect wildly high swings for the Democrats when the vote totals start coming in.

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Seems like the big question for AZ ballots is which way the Is broke? Anybody seen any info on that yet? Might give a hint on what to expect in remaining ballots with Inds being around 1/3 of the electorate.

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This guy handles Arizona elections:

https://x.com/Garrett_Archer

Let's not forget that Trump had a NEGATIVE 98 PERCENT media reporting.

That's widespread, constant and thorough propaganda against a candidate. If this coordinated assault has been and continues to occur, it really isn't out of their reach to have coordinated a cheat in 2020

TAMUallen said:

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Let's not forget that Trump had a NEGATIVE 98 PERCENT media reporting.

That's widespread, constant and thorough propaganda against a candidate. If this coordinated assault has been and continues to occur, it really isn't out of their reach to have coordinated a cheat in 2020

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At some point…it all becomes noise and folks stop paying attention…

AtticusMatlock said:

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This is at the tabulation center. There are tons of poll watchers there.

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Hawg can correct me if I am wrong, but I thought the ballots went to Runbeck's location first to be scanned, then went to the tabulation center? I don't think tha ballot envelope is opened for the first time at the tabulation center is it?

According to Maricopa County the envelopes are first opened at the counting center.

txags92 said:

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AtticusMatlock said:

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This is at the tabulation center. There are tons of poll watchers there.

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Hawg can correct me if I am wrong, but I thought the ballots went to Runbeck's location first to be scanned, then went to the tabulation center? I don't think tha ballot envelope is opened for the first time at the tabulation center is it?

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That is correct but Runbeck doesn't open them, that happens at the counting center.

But they don't need to open them/ They have the entire voting history for each voter. Where they live, which primaries they voted in previously, etc. They have a 90%+ probability of guessing correctly. Why there was a heat map of Republican districts on at Maricopa County election office walls. Where did that oriiginate?

Runbeck. They generate that info if and when they want to.

I find it absurd that a private entity can be inserted into the chain of custody and essentially not be auditable.

Can't go to X logged in from work computer. Found this NBC exit poll though:

National Exit Polls: Election 2024 Results

According to their polling about how unaffiliated voters typically think of themselves, it was R51/D45. Suggests those 39% unaffiliated votes might skew ~6 pts towards R.

SwigAg11 said:

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I find it absurd that a private entity can be inserted into the chain of custody and essentially not be auditable.

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Should be made illegal at the federal level. States can run their own elections, but they should be forbidden from having any contractor in the chain that is not subject to the same FOIA and oversight requirements as any other election process. Make Dominion and Runbeck subject to FOIA and their code must be open and auditable by outside parties.