Polls close in most of Indiana in 17 min
— Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn) November 5, 2024
Keep an eye on Hamilton County — lots of college grads (61%), suburban, affluent, left tending area (R+34 in 2012, R+19 in 2016, R+7 in 2020)
If Harris looks like she’s doing better than R+7, might be a good sign for her in similar areas
So far what we can glean from Indiana and Kentucky (and it's admittedly limited)...
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) November 5, 2024
We are going to outperform 2020 in those states by a few points, and rural are holding steady even while turnout in urban centers seems down nationwide.
If rural continue performing on par with…
redcrayon said:This feels like my mom showed up to my Senior Prom.Moderator said:
Just a friendly reminder here as the election night news and commentary starts to fire up, please be civil in your engagement with each other. The mod team has no interest in keeping users from contributing to the discussion tonight or the remainder of the week. Do your best to respond to each other in good faith, regardless of viewpoints. We are fine with negative commentary toward political/public figures parties, and movements, do not let negative commentary carry over to personal attacks toward users on the thread. Also, please be considerate to all readers and contributors with X posts, be selective in what X posts you add to the thread and do not spam the thread with multiple X posts at a time. They need to contribute substantive information from credible sources to the current flow of the thread discussion. If you have issues with a user that needs review, flag a post or email us, do not derail the thread from actual election night commentary or with moderation commentary. Our preference tonight is that this post is all you ever read from us. Happy election night posting to you. Thanks and Gig Em!
JK Staff. Don't ban me!
--Staff First votes to report in are usually mail in ballots, which will favor dems.Gigemags382 said:Rapier108 said:Very common for weird results with the first vote drops.Gigemags382 said:
For a few rural counties reporting in Indiana that I've checked, Trump is trailing how he did in those counties in 2020 by 2-3%. Maybe doesn't mean anything. But it's the data available so far.
When the first votes from Texas come in, Harris will be ahead, perhaps as much as 70-30 because the first county to report is always Travis, Bexar, or Dallas.
That's why I looked at individual counties. For the same county, Trump was underperforming in 2024 compared to 2020.
Please continue to look for more "bad signs" for Trump. We know you are incapable of finding anything good for the man.BoydCrowder13 said:
Hamilton County doesn't look good either. Underperforming by 9% compared to 2020.
Meanwhile, the rest of the state is OUTPERFORMING for Trump as a whole...Who?mikejones! said:Polls close in most of Indiana in 17 min
— Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn) November 5, 2024
Keep an eye on Hamilton County — lots of college grads (61%), suburban, affluent, left tending area (R+34 in 2012, R+19 in 2016, R+7 in 2020)
If Harris looks like she’s doing better than R+7, might be a good sign for her in similar areas
Looks like a county with a bunch of imported liberals
IIRC, Baris saw a respected poll that focused solely on the indies in NV. It was a public opinion type, not a strict how-will-you-vote poll. Probing what issues were important to them, how they had voted in the past, wrong track right track kind of stuff. They trended R.Quote:
Based on affiliations alone, I don't think NV has enough in Clark to overcome the EV R lead + heavy rural participation...
But I want to see indies...
redcrayon said:This feels like my mom showed up to my Senior Prom.Moderator said:
Just a friendly reminder here as the election night news and commentary starts to fire up, please be civil in your engagement with each other. The mod team has no interest in keeping users from contributing to the discussion tonight or the remainder of the week. Do your best to respond to each other in good faith, regardless of viewpoints. We are fine with negative commentary toward political/public figures parties, and movements, do not let negative commentary carry over to personal attacks toward users on the thread. Also, please be considerate to all readers and contributors with X posts, be selective in what X posts you add to the thread and do not spam the thread with multiple X posts at a time. They need to contribute substantive information from credible sources to the current flow of the thread discussion. If you have issues with a user that needs review, flag a post or email us, do not derail the thread from actual election night commentary or with moderation commentary. Our preference tonight is that this post is all you ever read from us. Happy election night posting to you. Thanks and Gig Em!
JK Staff. Don't ban me!
🚨 Something INSANE is happening right now. Republicans are DOMINATING Major Democrat Strongholds Across the US.
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) November 5, 2024
Here are some examples…
PIMA is Arizona’s most liberal county:
🔴 REP - 31K
🟡 IND - 29K
🔵 DEM - 19K
—
MORRIS, NJ— One of most densely populated counties in New…
Who?mikejones! said:
That's what I mean. Kinda like Williamson county here.
Bunch of left voting population moved up from Austin and our voting trends looks similar to this Hamilton county. I don't that it says anything other than people moving out of a city
TxAgPreacher said:
Trump 2024!
Make America Godly Again!
Vote and Pray! Encourage your friends to vote!
will25u said:Digging into Iowa AB/EV numbers. GOP was short of Dems 18% in 2016 and short by 12% in 2020. This year we are up 1%. Includes being up 8% among 0/4 voters and up 3% among 1/4 voters. GOP outperforming Dems among low prop. Unless there is a turnout bomb coming from Dems on…
— David Kochel (@ddkochel) November 5, 2024
zero and low propensity voters.BiochemAg97 said:will25u said:Digging into Iowa AB/EV numbers. GOP was short of Dems 18% in 2016 and short by 12% in 2020. This year we are up 1%. Includes being up 8% among 0/4 voters and up 3% among 1/4 voters. GOP outperforming Dems among low prop. Unless there is a turnout bomb coming from Dems on…
— David Kochel (@ddkochel) November 5, 2024
What are 0/4 and 1/4 voters? Are these people who have not voted or only voted once in the last 4 elections?
And just like Williamson County being due north of Austin, Hamilton county is due north of Indianapolis.Who?mikejones! said:
That's what I mean. Kinda like Williamson county here.
Bunch of left voting population moved up from Austin and our voting trends looks similar to this Hamilton county. I don't that it says anything other than people moving out of a city
Who?mikejones! said:Polls close in most of Indiana in 17 min
— Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn) November 5, 2024
Keep an eye on Hamilton County — lots of college grads (61%), suburban, affluent, left tending area (R+34 in 2012, R+19 in 2016, R+7 in 2020)
If Harris looks like she’s doing better than R+7, might be a good sign for her in similar areas
Looks like a county with a bunch of imported liberals
He was nervous in the first couple of minutes, he's more chill now about itQuo Vadis? said:
Who said Kirk was blackpilling?So far what we can glean from Indiana and Kentucky (and it's admittedly limited)...
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) November 5, 2024
We are going to outperform 2020 in those states by a few points, and rural are holding steady even while turnout in urban centers seems down nationwide.
If rural continue performing on par with…
BD88 said:🚨 Something INSANE is happening right now. Republicans are DOMINATING Major Democrat Strongholds Across the US.
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) November 5, 2024
Here are some examples…
PIMA is Arizona’s most liberal county:
🔴 REP - 31K
🟡 IND - 29K
🔵 DEM - 19K
—
MORRIS, NJ— One of most densely populated counties in New…
the most cool guy said:Who?mikejones! said:Polls close in most of Indiana in 17 min
— Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn) November 5, 2024
Keep an eye on Hamilton County — lots of college grads (61%), suburban, affluent, left tending area (R+34 in 2012, R+19 in 2016, R+7 in 2020)
If Harris looks like she’s doing better than R+7, might be a good sign for her in similar areas
Looks like a county with a bunch of imported liberals
And the Rs moved out to the surrounding areas and will still vote just as strong for Trump. This doesn't seem like it matters.
BD88 said:🚨 Something INSANE is happening right now. Republicans are DOMINATING Major Democrat Strongholds Across the US.
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) November 5, 2024
Here are some examples…
PIMA is Arizona’s most liberal county:
🔴 REP - 31K
🟡 IND - 29K
🔵 DEM - 19K
—
MORRIS, NJ— One of most densely populated counties in New…
I believe a lot of these early votes are from the early vote which has historically gone to D's. This year is weird because R's got out early, but historically speaking they haven't.Who?mikejones! said:🚨🇺🇸 NEW: Hamilton County, Indiana
— Politics Global (@PolitlcsGlobal) November 5, 2024
🔵 Kamala Harris - 49.7%
🔴 Donald Trump - 48.6%
57.9% votes counted
Trump had won this county by 7 points in 2020 #Election2024 pic.twitter.com/CE2FyVxAeZ
More bomb threats reported👇 pic.twitter.com/pMDjl3B6i2
— Defiant L’s (@DefiantLs) November 5, 2024
WilCo was deep red when we lived there in the 80s before the tech boom. Damn shame.Rapier108 said:And just like Williamson County being due north of Austin, Hamilton county is due north of Indianapolis.Who?mikejones! said:
That's what I mean. Kinda like Williamson county here.
Bunch of left voting population moved up from Austin and our voting trends looks similar to this Hamilton county. I don't that it says anything other than people moving out of a city
Libs escaping the ****hole they created and moving to infest a new area.
CNN: A judge in Fayette County, Pennsylvania, has ordered a poll official in Washington Township to allow votes to be sent to the county election bureau for tabulation when voting ends “without a hand count or manual tabulation of the votes cast for any office.”
— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) November 5, 2024
Russia, Russia, Russia!Who?mikejones! said:More bomb threats reported👇 pic.twitter.com/pMDjl3B6i2
— Defiant L’s (@DefiantLs) November 5, 2024
JUST IN: Four more Arizona polling locations have received "unsubstantiated" bomb threats originating from Russia, officials say
— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) November 5, 2024
