Well that's a decent explanation of the polymarket flip back to Trump...will25u said:NEVADA VOTE SPLIT
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) November 5, 2024
(Early Vote) β 1.089M
π΄ 37.6% (+3.9)
π΅ 33.8%
π‘ 28.5%
Votes Remaining β 335K
π΅ 26.9% (+1.7)
π΄ 25.2%
π‘ 47.8%
EXPECTED 2024 ELECTORATE: π΄+2.5
2020 ELECTORATE
π΅+0.6
Washoe 10 AM update - UNOFFICIAL
— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) November 5, 2024
π΄ R: 3106
π΅ D: 2331
π‘ I: 2408
And on that note, I'm getting a nap for real.
Newcomers.rab79 said:txags92 said:But not explicitly "illegal".Ag with kids said:Those are aliens, too.txags92 said:No, those get counted as democrats by default. I think the extra 3% came from the Roswell area.Ag with kids said:Those are the illegals...txags92 said:Where did the extra 3% come from?Captn_Ag05 said:#New Total vote by party - New Mexico
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 5, 2024
π΅ Democrats 50%
π΄ Republicans 37%
π‘ Other 16%
Ah, extraterrestrial!
will25u said:The first polls close in just over 5 hours. Donald Trump has a 54% chance of winning the 2024 election according to our latest forecast.
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 5, 2024
Follow along with our live results tonight:https://t.co/okRRK7zROh pic.twitter.com/6yYv8OGRVH
11am Maricopa County Update:
— Sam Almy (@sfalmy) November 5, 2024
Independent voters might be the story of the day. They have matched GOP check ins the last two hours in Maricopa.
Last Hour: 18.5k
π΅: 3.7kπ΄: 7.4kβ«: 7.3k
All Day Total: 94k
π΅:19kπ΄:39kβ«:36k
All Day % of ballots
π΅: 20.2% π΄: 41.6% β«:38.2% pic.twitter.com/V3JLzNDJ1W
anchorman gif + htmlCynic said:will25u said:The first polls close in just over 5 hours. Donald Trump has a 54% chance of winning the 2024 election according to our latest forecast.
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 5, 2024
Follow along with our live results tonight:https://t.co/okRRK7zROh pic.twitter.com/6yYv8OGRVH
And there's a 50% chance of the 54% chance being correct
How did indies break there in 2020? What are your thoughts on the indie break there today?will25u said:11am Maricopa County Update:
— Sam Almy (@sfalmy) November 5, 2024
Independent voters might be the story of the day. They have matched GOP check ins the last two hours in Maricopa.
Last Hour: 18.5k
π΅: 3.7kπ΄: 7.4kβ«: 7.3k
All Day Total: 94k
π΅:19kπ΄:39kβ«:36k
All Day % of ballots
π΅: 20.2% π΄: 41.6% β«:38.2% pic.twitter.com/V3JLzNDJ1W
aggiedata said:
Well thatβs not too great from a dem perspective
— Data Analyst CK (@TheDataGooroo) November 5, 2024
Letβs see how the rest of the day goes https://t.co/2xNk6QC0Ag
I am not sure. But usually there is a shift towards the party with enthusiasm. So if I had to guess, whatever it was in 2020 should shift right.FireAg said:How did indies break there in 2020? What are your thoughts on the indie break there today?will25u said:11am Maricopa County Update:
— Sam Almy (@sfalmy) November 5, 2024
Independent voters might be the story of the day. They have matched GOP check ins the last two hours in Maricopa.
Last Hour: 18.5k
π΅: 3.7kπ΄: 7.4kβ«: 7.3k
All Day Total: 94k
π΅:19kπ΄:39kβ«:36k
All Day % of ballots
π΅: 20.2% π΄: 41.6% β«:38.2% pic.twitter.com/V3JLzNDJ1W
More: https://t.co/mw4omqcALX pic.twitter.com/TrIH0ztfqi
— RealClearPolitics (@RCPolitics) November 5, 2024
Votes remaining? There were 2.4 million registered voters in NV in October per the SoS website.will25u said:NEVADA VOTE SPLIT
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) November 5, 2024
(Early Vote) β 1.089M
π΄ 37.6% (+3.9)
π΅ 33.8%
π‘ 28.5%
Votes Remaining β 335K
π΅ 26.9% (+1.7)
π΄ 25.2%
π‘ 47.8%
EXPECTED 2024 ELECTORATE: π΄+2.5
2020 ELECTORATE
π΅+0.6
Lyon:
— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) November 5, 2024
π΄ R: 694
π΅ D: 153
π‘ I: 344
I guarantee these independents aren't voting Harris.
Kari Lake is about to be on Clay and Buck, I'm listening so if she gives any input on indies (FWIW) I'll advise.will25u said:I am not sure. But usually there is a shift towards the party with enthusiasm. So if I had to guess, whatever it was in 2020 should shift right.FireAg said:How did indies break there in 2020? What are your thoughts on the indie break there today?will25u said:11am Maricopa County Update:
— Sam Almy (@sfalmy) November 5, 2024
Independent voters might be the story of the day. They have matched GOP check ins the last two hours in Maricopa.
Last Hour: 18.5k
π΅: 3.7kπ΄: 7.4kβ«: 7.3k
All Day Total: 94k
π΅:19kπ΄:39kβ«:36k
All Day % of ballots
π΅: 20.2% π΄: 41.6% β«:38.2% pic.twitter.com/V3JLzNDJ1W
From what I'm seeing, GA/AZ trends of being off the table look very real. That puts Harris with a map where she magically has to be the first Democrat in a century to win by less than 10 EVs.
— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) November 5, 2024
It's 10 30 in Nevada it's way early. You have the whole rest of the state Clark County's got to make up the 40k deficit and beat Statewide Rep Electiion day vote.
— Dogturd troll shreader (@dave987612488) November 5, 2024
At my polling station in Clark County, Nevada.
— HoneybadgerLAππ#HarrisWalz2024ππ#KHiveπΊπ¦π¬πͺ (@HoneybadgerLA) November 5, 2024
No lines at all; itβs clear a lot of folks voted early.
Thereβs even a guy on the corner playing amazing music, so itβs like dance party out here!π
To top it off, the Thunderbirds are practicingβweβre getting an airshow, too!πΊπΈ
If that is true, and these leads hold...that sure seems like it would be enough to get Lake across the finish line too...will25u said:I am not sure. But usually there is a shift towards the party with enthusiasm. So if I had to guess, whatever it was in 2020 should shift right.FireAg said:How did indies break there in 2020? What are your thoughts on the indie break there today?will25u said:11am Maricopa County Update:
— Sam Almy (@sfalmy) November 5, 2024
Independent voters might be the story of the day. They have matched GOP check ins the last two hours in Maricopa.
Last Hour: 18.5k
π΅: 3.7kπ΄: 7.4kβ«: 7.3k
All Day Total: 94k
π΅:19kπ΄:39kβ«:36k
All Day % of ballots
π΅: 20.2% π΄: 41.6% β«:38.2% pic.twitter.com/V3JLzNDJ1W
The early morning hours of voting in Nevada are NOT producing what the Harris needs it to produce.
— Shipwreckedcrew (@shipwreckedcrew) November 5, 2024
There is a sentiment online that because Dems are voting in higher numbers than GOP in Clark County that it means Harris might pull off a comeback from being down by more thanβ¦
Quote:
The early morning hours of voting in Nevada are NOT producing what the Harris needs it to produce.
There is a sentiment online that because Dems are voting in higher numbers than GOP in Clark County that it means Harris might pull off a comeback from being down by more than 40,000 votes in mail-in and early ballots.
But it has always been expected that Dems would vote in higher numbers than GOP in Clark on election day.
1. The GOP has a far bigger number of early and mail-in votes in Clark than it has ever had before so there are fewer GOP votes remaining for the GOP in Clark today.
2. The opposite is true of Dems -- so there are MORE votes remaining for Dems in Clark today than has ever been the case before.
But, most significantly, there are 92,000 more registered Dems in Clark than GOP voters.
The early vote shows Dems make up 31.8%. They make up 32% of all registered voters in Clark.
But the early vote of the GOP is 30%
That is 4% above their registration of 26%.
That is a rate of voting that is 15% higher than registration.
Early voting in Clark is NOT accomplishing what the Dems need to accomplish -- at least not with registered Dems in Clark County.
Remember -- the vaunted Harry Reid Machine and a superior GOTV effort was supposed to fix the issue of having fewer mail-in ballots than was expected.
Well, those Dem voters were not standing in line before the polls opened this morning.
yes, but I don't trust PA's counting processes.fc2112 said:
Give NC to Harris and this is how i think it breaks.
stantheman01 said:
So what is the best network to watch tonight for election results?
And I'm a MAGA
indies in 2020 may not be a good indicator at all. four years ago, single issues like baby killing weren't on the ballot but also, Biden/Harris hadn't massively spent to devalue our currency or opened the border completely wide open yet either.FireAg said:How did indies break there in 2020? What are your thoughts on the indie break there today?will25u said:11am Maricopa County Update:
— Sam Almy (@sfalmy) November 5, 2024
Independent voters might be the story of the day. They have matched GOP check ins the last two hours in Maricopa.
Last Hour: 18.5k
π΅: 3.7kπ΄: 7.4kβ«: 7.3k
All Day Total: 94k
π΅:19kπ΄:39kβ«:36k
All Day % of ballots
π΅: 20.2% π΄: 41.6% β«:38.2% pic.twitter.com/V3JLzNDJ1W
Just In: Trump campaign recognizes election will likely not be called this evening, per @CNN
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) November 5, 2024
It is the rest of the CNN crew that make CNN unwatchable while he is on.McInnis 03 said:stantheman01 said:
So what is the best network to watch tonight for election results?
And I'm a MAGA
It's hard to beat John King on the video board on CNN
Captn_Ag05 said:Just In: Trump campaign recognizes election will likely not be called this evening, per @CNN
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) November 5, 2024
I'm certain my wife will have Newsmax on TV when I get home...stantheman01 said:
So what is the best network to watch tonight for election results?
And I'm a MAGA
