Maroon Elephant said:

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AvidAggie said:

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Kamala Harris just took the lead in Nevada. pic.twitter.com/HpLnBWoUAW

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 5, 2024

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This is concerning to say the least. Trump had a massive lead there.

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This was a reaction to early Clark data. But the reality is, Rs just have to keep it close there to win the state. The odds have already moved back to Trump.

Gigemags382 said:

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will25u said:

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For anyone who doesn't know....

NV is the LEAST important of the swing states for either candidate, and won't be needed unless there are some fringe Electoral College combinations.

Trump's easiest path to victory is to win GA, NC and PA.
Harris' easiest path to victory is to win WI, MI and PA.

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But to be fair, at this point aren't we just trying to get indicators about trends anywhere we can find them? Nevada seems to be a bad indicator for Trump, just like Florida seems to be a positive indicator. Even though neither of the states are particularly important in and of themselves.

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when is the last time a Republican won Nevada?

please let us know.

Busses still picking up union workers to go vote

Maroon Elephant said:

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AvidAggie said:

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Kamala Harris just took the lead in Nevada. pic.twitter.com/HpLnBWoUAW

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 5, 2024

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This is concerning to say the least. Trump had a massive lead there.

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Betting odds mean very little...

txags92 said:

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Ag with kids said:

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txags92 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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#New Total vote by party - New Mexico

🔵 Democrats 50%
🔴 Republicans 37%
🟡 Other 16%

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 5, 2024

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Where did the extra 3% come from?

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Those are the illegals...

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No, those get counted as democrats by default. I think the extra 3% came from the Roswell area.

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Those are aliens, too.

Ag with kids said:

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txags92 said:

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Ag with kids said:

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txags92 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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#New Total vote by party - New Mexico

🔵 Democrats 50%
🔴 Republicans 37%
🟡 Other 16%

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 5, 2024

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Where did the extra 3% come from?

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Those are the illegals...

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No, those get counted as democrats by default. I think the extra 3% came from the Roswell area.

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Those are aliens, too.

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But not explicitly "illegal".

GWB in 2004...

He was also the last R candidate in the Oval office prior to Trump...

Maroon Elephant said:

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AvidAggie said:

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Kamala Harris just took the lead in Nevada. pic.twitter.com/HpLnBWoUAW

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 5, 2024

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This is concerning to say the least. Trump had a massive lead there.

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I don't think people understand how massive a 40K Republican lead in early voting is for Nevada. That's a swing of ~60K from 2022 which was a good year for GOP. Nevada drop will provide a full snapshot. https://t.co/4FEUJbqCDh

— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) November 5, 2024

FireAg said:

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GWB in 2004...

He was also the last R candidate in the Oval office prior to Trump...

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so we have someone on here stating that because Republicans have not won Nevada in literally TWENTY YEARS and are now in a 50/50 race

that "this is a very bad sign for Trump"

Maroon Elephant said:

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AvidAggie said:

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Kamala Harris just took the lead in Nevada. pic.twitter.com/HpLnBWoUAW

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 5, 2024

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This is concerning to say the least. Trump had a massive lead there.

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It's an over-reaction (amplified by Vegas being there and Ralston's flag waiving for the hammer and sickle). Unfortunate for the senate candidate (Brown) but Trump probably won't win by as much as hoped. Clark County did well for the CCP early, but it's been pretty steady since, today.

Another quick NV update: that R just under D trend is holding. Others are doing their thing...not sure if there is a difference between in person Indies vs Mail Indies but if so that could help one party or the other.

Also, I normally am able to comment back to you all but today… https://t.co/i3NlwqdRYj

— CA ET Nerd (@earlyvotedata) November 5, 2024

And Trump is ahead again on polymarket, fwiw (which isn't much).

LOL. I'm waiting for Iowa updates with bated breath.

Legal Custodian said:

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Maroon Elephant said:

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AvidAggie said:

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Kamala Harris just took the lead in Nevada. pic.twitter.com/HpLnBWoUAW

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 5, 2024

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This is concerning to say the least. Trump had a massive lead there.

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I just looked at the other battleground states and those have barely changed at all. This is the only state in which this is happening, but yes this paired with the tweets coming out about Clark county, Nevada does not look to be trending for Trump.

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Clark county is a toss up right now. That's the only thing not great for Reps. The rural don't report and are extremely red and anecdotally have crazy lines. We'll see

BREAKING: tabulators are "jamming" in the Michigan counties of Monroe, Wayne, and Oakland, according to Trump campaign legal source.

— Emerald Robinson ✝️ (@EmeraldRobinson) November 5, 2024

yeah. R just has to stay close in Clark co. Will sweep up the rural counties.

Latest Swing State Odds

🟥 Arizona • Trump 78% - Harris 22%
🟥 Georgia • Trump 70% - Harris 30%
🟥 Pennsylvania • Trump 59% - Harris 41%
❔Nevada • Harris 50% - Trump 50%
🟦 Wisconsin • Harris 54% - Trump 46%
🟦 Michigan • Harris 61% - Trump 39%

Polls begin to close… pic.twitter.com/cTg4OG1N3l

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 5, 2024

Corporal Punishment said:

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Trump just retook the lead in NV 51-50.

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Probably lunch crowd getting off work for the hour.

LMCane said:

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FireAg said:

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GWB in 2004...

He was also the last R candidate in the Oval office prior to Trump...

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so we have someone on here stating that because Republicans have not won Nevada in literally TWENTY YEARS and are now in a 50/50 race

that "this is a very bad sign for Trump"

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Yes...it would be better to compare where Trump stood at this point in 2016 and 2020 versus today...(I believe he was down ~20K EVs in 2020)

Neither cycle did he enter election day with an EV lead...

Today, he entered with a 40K EV lead...that's basically a 60K EV swing for him...so if ED voting levels remain consistent with past elections from both parties, Ds would not likely surpass that EV "red wall", so to speak...

It's not impossible, though...NV will be close...

Who?mikejones! said:

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BREAKING: tabulators are "jamming" in the Michigan counties of Monroe, Wayne, and Oakland, according to Trump campaign legal source.

— Emerald Robinson ✝️ (@EmeraldRobinson) November 5, 2024

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Can't say I'm surprised, sadly. OTOH, messing up the tabulation in Detroit and suburbs thereof should have a disproportionate impact on Dem voters. So there's that.

I don't want anyone disenfranchised but as long as these horrible electronic voting systems are in use in their current format, it will continue to happen and never know whose ox can get gored. Your turn, Dems.

The first polls close in just over 5 hours. Donald Trump has a 54% chance of winning the 2024 election according to our latest forecast.

Follow along with our live results tonight:https://t.co/okRRK7zROh pic.twitter.com/6yYv8OGRVH

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 5, 2024

txags92 said:

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Ag with kids said:

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txags92 said:

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Ag with kids said:

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txags92 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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#New Total vote by party - New Mexico

🔵 Democrats 50%
🔴 Republicans 37%
🟡 Other 16%

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 5, 2024

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Where did the extra 3% come from?

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Those are the illegals...

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No, those get counted as democrats by default. I think the extra 3% came from the Roswell area.

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Those are aliens, too.

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But not explicitly "illegal".

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Ah, extraterrestrial!