I do think AZ, MI, and WI will flip to GOP, and am cautiously optimistic about NV. Wildcard is the weather on Tuesday, which I think looks pretty good but could impact any/many of those races. PA I won't make a prediction about.

Fifty six seats puts some pressure on the few Democrats left in remaining Red/Purple states to behave themselves.

Those two idiots in Georgia might want to reconsider remaining attached to Chuckie's rear end.

You can make headway with that number in many different respects.

52-48. OH, WV, MT flips.

Trump will not get 51% of the popular vote. This guy doesn't know what he's talking about

As for the Senate, I think the Republican flip three, maybe four seats

I think we'll do better than that. 54-46. Two scenarios will change that: ED vote was cannibalized and overconfident GOP voters don't turn out at normal rates on Tuesday leads to 52 or 53 GOP Senate seats. GOP did cannibalized but pissed off Trump fans crawl over broken glass to the polls AND Trump does very well with AA communities (12-20% worth depending on the state which is in line with national polling) leads to a blow out and 56 total seats. Outside chance in that second scenario with 57. I honestly think Lake is the hardest pickup.

The AZ senate race is just in a weird place. Lake is polling consistently 5 to 6 points to the left of Trump. Lot of the newest polls and the early vote. Looks like Trump could win Arizona by 5 to 6 points. It will be tight but definitely doable.

I think a lot of you are overly optimistic. At this point I would be thrilled if Trump wins by any margin and we keep the Senate and House. A lot of conflicting info out there and everything is in the margin for error.

So…..we go long on box car futures?






Seriously, how many out there have actually found people in the wild convinced Trump will ship them off to camps?

SwigAg11 said:

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The AZ senate race is just in a weird place. Lake is polling consistently 5 to 6 points to the left of Trump. Lot of the newest polls and the early vote. Looks like Trump could win Arizona by 5 to 6 points. It will be tight but definitely doable.

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Maybe Lake fatigue?

She has been omnipresent for a while. Maybe if she had just appeared recently on the scene it might be closer?

I do not think Trump will win the popular vote. He has to win one of the following states: WI, MI, or PA. Without one of those, I don't see a path unless there is a complete shocker in a state like VA (unlikely) or NY (very unlikely). I want Trump to win with a passion, but the pessimist in me says he will not. I think Kamala very narrowly takes all 3 "blue wall" states and wins 272-268.

Yes, there certainly is a lot of conflicting info out there but I thought this was interesting from chatGPT:

ChatGPT 4o

You said:
what is the probability that Trump wins the election?
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
As of November 1, 2024, the U.S. presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is highly competitive, with various forecasts and betting markets offering differing probabilities for a Trump victory:

FiveThirtyEight: This forecasting model currently assigns Trump a 53.1% chance of winning the election.
New York Post

270toWin: Their simulations indicate a 51.2% probability for a Trump win, with a median projection of 271 electoral votes for Trump.
270toWin

Betting Markets: Platforms like BetMGM UK list Trump as the favorite with odds of -192, translating to an implied probability of approximately 62.2%.
Benzinga

Interactive Brokers' ForecastTrader: This platform has observed a recent increase in Harris's odds, rising from 38% to 44%, suggesting a tightening race.

Squadron7 said:

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SwigAg11 said:

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The AZ senate race is just in a weird place. Lake is polling consistently 5 to 6 points to the left of Trump. Lot of the newest polls and the early vote. Looks like Trump could win Arizona by 5 to 6 points. It will be tight but definitely doable.

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Maybe Lake fatigue?

She has been omnipresent for a while. Maybe if she had just appeared recently on the scene it might be closer?

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I think the opposite. Shy Lake voters. She has been so demonized and vilified (for not very good reasons) that people aren't admitting they are voting for her.

aggiehawg said:

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Squadron7 said:

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SwigAg11 said:

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The AZ senate race is just in a weird place. Lake is polling consistently 5 to 6 points to the left of Trump. Lot of the newest polls and the early vote. Looks like Trump could win Arizona by 5 to 6 points. It will be tight but definitely doable.

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Maybe Lake fatigue?

She has been omnipresent for a while. Maybe if she had just appeared recently on the scene it might be closer?

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I think the opposite. Shy Lake voters. She has been so demonized and vilified (for not very good reasons) that people aren't admitting they are voting for her.

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That makes sense also. The lawfare against Trump has done more damage to the Dems than they will admit.

I don't disagree with anything said in that article. It could easily go that direction, but just as easily end up 51 seats.

As I said in the polling thread. The polling is all moving toward GOP senate candidates. Some of it just might be too little too late and a cash flow problem with the GOP campaign coffers because of the fractured nature of the Trump vs Blue Blood Republicans.

With stronger candidate selections and Trump not talking down voting during the run off elections in 2020, 2022, and 2024 could have easily had GOP trying to achieve close to 60 seats. Both seats in GA and AZ should already be in GOP hands. Had 2022 gone better and if things break mostly GOP way in this election, the GOP could easily have had both seats in PA and NV as well.

Also, totally agree with him about Sam Brown. I think superficial voters won't vote for someone with as much scaring on their face as Brown has. Which is sad, he's a super smart and capable guy.

nortex97 said:

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I do think AZ, MI, and WI will flip to GOP, and am cautiously optimistic about NV. Wildcard is the weather on Tuesday, which I think looks pretty good but could impact any/many of those races. PA I won't make a prediction about.

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Georgia?

Neither of the GA senators are up for re-election this term.

Wabs said:

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I do not think Trump will win the popular vote. He has to win one of the following states: WI, MI, or PA. Without one of those, I don't see a path unless there is a complete shocker in a state like VA (unlikely) or NY (very unlikely). I want Trump to win with a passion, but the pessimist in me says he will not. I think Kamala very narrowly takes all 3 "blue wall" states and wins 272-268.

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God forbid!!!

Captain Pablo said:

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Trump will not get 51% of the popular vote. This guy doesn't know what he's talking about

As for the Senate, I think the Republican flip three, maybe four seats

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I think it's possible.

policywonk98 said:

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I don't disagree with anything said in that article. It could easily go that direction, but just as easily end up 51 seats.

As I said in the polling thread. The polling is all moving toward GOP senate candidates. Some of it just might be too little too late and a cash flow problem with the GOP campaign coffers because of the fractured nature of the Trump vs Blue Blood Republicans.

With stronger candidate selections and Trump not talking down voting during the run off elections in 2020, 2022, and 2024 could have easily had GOP trying to achieve close to 60 seats. Both seats in GA and AZ should already be in GOP hands. Had 2022 gone better and if things break mostly GOP way in this election, the GOP could easily have had both seats in PA and NV as well.

Also, totally agree with him about Sam Brown. I think superficial voters won't vote for someone with as much scaring on their face as Brown has. Which is sad, he's a super smart and capable guy.

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Not to put the cart before the horse, but I'm curious as to your initial impression of who is in the driver's seat for Majority Leader.

I know Cornyn REALLY wants the job, and likely has McConnell's support. But I'm hoping we can move on from another Mini-Mitch.

56 seats and a 5 point Trump win in the popular vote? That's one of the nuttiest predictions I've seen this entire cycle. Absolutely zero percent chance that happens.

Senate GOP has been lagging behind all cycle. 51-49 gop is most likely outcome at this point.

Where is Legal Drug Pusher? Shouldn't he have some good inside polling data on how Kari Lake is really doing?

valvemonkey91 said:

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Where is Legal Drug Pusher? Shouldn't he have some good inside polling data on how Kari Lake is really doing?

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She's cooked.

valvemonkey91 said:

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Where is Legal Drug Pusher? Shouldn't he have some good inside polling data on how Kari Lake is really doing?

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Most recent poll, by the top rated Atlas group, has her up 1. Early voting in AZ has been going absolutely great for the GOP. Most of the credible polls that are public actually have Trump ahead on the national vote, such as the one below.

AZ RETURN UPDATE 11/1:

Rs increased their lead by about 12K (!!) from yesterday's second update. R's now have the turnout advantage and I don't see them losing it through the election.

In Maricopa County alone, Rs have a 109K (8.2%) lead. There may be another AZ update later… https://t.co/lRjxagcrOU

— CA ET Nerd (@earlyvotedata) November 1, 2024

Our last national survey of the cycle. It's a wrap! pic.twitter.com/w0QhTgwZn3

— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) November 1, 2024

Only 1 challenger has won when markets were within 5% of all time highs. JFK.

We are not in a time of serious economic crisis

And yet KAMala is campaigning as the 'change' candidate and something like 74 percent of the country says it's on the wrong track/are not satisfied with the way things are going (depending how it's polled).

Bidenflation also means those stock market gains tracked in absolute dollars are illusory, and people know the Biden-Harris economic claims, like jobs are just lies. HTH.

LuoJi said:

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Only 1 challenger has won when markets were within 5% of all time highs. JFK.

We are not in a time of serious economic crisis

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Debt
Interest rates
Home sales stagnant
Cost of living



And finally


The job market is the biggest indicator of the economy, not the market. Only 12,000 jobs created last month….not good.

This, and "the market" is diverging more from "the economy" given there are 100s of millions of 401k funds continually dumped into it, it seems almost impossible to crash and burn now.