Allan Litchman `

Tswizsle

Joined: Jul 29, 2024

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Predicted 9 out of 10 elections and predicated a Trump win in 2016.

Who is this guy? This has made me a bit worried.

Historian who correctly predicted 9 of last 10 presidential elections picks Harris, still

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BlueTaze

Joined: Jan 9, 2021

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3:29p, 11/1/24

He will be forgotten after this election.

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PA24

Joined: Oct 10, 1999

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3:32p, 11/1/24

AG

From the article:

Lichtman's son Sam interviewed his father during the 90-minute live video, where the election prognosticator argued that democracy itself is at stake in this year's White House race.
Before every election, Lichtman said he gets butterflies, but this year is different.
"I have a flock of crows in my stomach," he said.

Anytime you read "democracy is at stake", take it with a grain of salt.

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Cooksville

Joined: Dec 10, 2018

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3:33p, 11/1/24

Seriously, how hard would it have been to predict 9 of the last 10 correctly? Almost all of them went as predicted, except 2016. That doesn't make this guy some Nostradamus.

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C@LAg

Joined: Nov 24, 2018

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3:33p, 11/1/24

it is not WHAT you posted.

it is THAT you posted.

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Rapier108

Joined: Jan 24, 2012

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3:36p, 11/1/24

1984- Reagan
1988- Bush
1992- Clinton
1996- Clinton
2000- Bush (Missed this one, and we all know how close it was.)
2004- Bush
2008- Obama
2012- Obama
2016- Trump
2020- Biden

On the closer races, 2004, 2016, and 2020, he picked the candidate who had the better chance of winning and/or had momentum near the end. The rest were forgone conclusions well before election day.

"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill

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Philip J Fry

Joined: Oct 4, 2004

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3:39p, 11/1/24

AG

Isnt this the genius who uses true/false scores for his pick and isn't following his own rules to get to this conclusion?

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Drahknor03

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In reply to Philip J Fry • 3:41p, 11/1/24

AG

Yeah. One of his keys is that Harris is more charismatic that Trump. Another is that there has been no foreign policy scandal. Oh, also that both the short and long term economy are good. If he was honest about those four keys, Trump would be his pick.

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