TexAgs91 said:

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Catag94 said:

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Your $2,000 isn't changing the fact the Trump is gonna beat this imbecile comfortably. So, cash out now. Save it, and then stimulate the economy with it after January 20, 2025!

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It's not guaranteed yet. Remember the dems will cheat

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nortex97 said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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Sportsbooks don't adjust lines to try and get even money.

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Not sure if serious. The line moves 100 percent as a consequence of where folks are placing wagers (and events, like injuries, akin to something in politics like Kamala talking off script in an interview). This isn't a real big mystery:

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Except that's not how it works in the real world. It's the economy equivalent of thinking if you don't buy gas on Monday the prices will have to come down.

Most Vegas lines move off of an odds screen (eg. Don Best back in the day, but nowadays there's a variety of them). You walking up and putting $1000 down or $10000 down isn't going to move a line significantly, because sportsbooks above all else do not want to have a rogue/bad line -- because that is when a sharp/whale can actually impact your bottom line.

Think about it - you think all the sportsbooks you see at 6/6.5 on a given week are all getting even action right at that number?

Books take a side on just about every game outside the major events that have enough volume to really hurt them (Super Bowl, college title game to an extent, a few others). Otherwise they just make sure their number doesn't expose them to too much action. No real need to balance books when the majority of people laying down money don't understand the game they are playing and definitely don't understand any kind of real money management.

Anyone who has ever laid a sports wager down that doesn't know the value of a half point in that sport, or what the implied probability of say a shift from 4.5 -> 5 represents -- meaning roughly 95% of the people who lay sports wagers down -- is playing a game they don't even understand. That is why all those beautiful casinos exist.

As for the odds predicting outcomes -- it's been a minute since I've pulled the numbers, but the average closing line of a football game is something like two touchdowns off of the actual result.

Sports spreads aren't accurate, they are just a lot more accurate than most people.

LMCane said:

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I placed $2,000 on Harris in PredictIt a few months ago.

Normally I would cash out now and invest it in the stock market.

but back in 2016 I placed $2,000 on Clinton and we won so being superstitious should I just keep the money invested in Harris to hopefully lose.

would be worth it. on the other hand it's $2000.

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Consider it a win tax!!

Definitely Not A Cop said:

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Do you guys think the betting markets are affected by the demographics of people that gamble? I would assume most people betting on politics are white college-educated men.

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That's a great point. Probably a lot of those white college educated middle/upper middle class white men "voting" with their heart not necessarily their mind.

Interactive Brokers allows trading in the contracts. So I put a little investment on Harris (PRESH symbol). The quotes indicate Trump as a slight favorite.

I bet there will be some fascinating studies of the wagering/trading markets after the election.

Kamala’s interview with @BretBaier might have ended her campaign

She dropped again and is now down 16 points across major betting sites pic.twitter.com/xqwG7ZMMOr

— Nathan Hughes (@rallynate) October 17, 2024

If she did that interview with an objective to reach more voters and show undecideds that she is a safer vote vs. Trump, I think it was an unmitigated failure.

GOP very steady on Predictit;


Their spread as to EC margin is sort of interesting to see where the money is:

There seems to be a theory of market manipulation tilting the markets toward Trump for various reasons. If you believe that, Harris contracts may be vastly underpriced.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/betting-election-pro-trump-ad74aa71?st=U1Cumv&reflink=article_copyURL_share

Good piece on the betting market (and an allegation someone/4 folks put 30 million on trump to win to influence Polymarket specifically):

Quote:

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One reason to take this with a grain of salt: Polymarket didn't actually become an outlier. RCP includes Polymarket in its aggregation of seven betting markets, and they have all moved in Trump's direction, and on the same scale. Here are the current odds that each market has produced based on the betting taking place within each (as of 2:30 ET or so):

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My personal position is that the markets net are a good reflection of probability, yet also subject to manipulation by large donors/believers, so I found this interesting. FWIW, they have Trump up to 62.3 this am:

I think her hitting the mid-30's (net in the markets) reflects a real 'death spiral' but of course that's just a personal opinion.

LMCane said:

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I placed $2,000 on Harris in PredictIt a few months ago.

Normally I would cash out now and invest it in the stock market.

but back in 2016 I placed $2,000 on Clinton and we won so being superstitious should I just keep the money invested in Harris to hopefully lose.

would be worth it. on the other hand it's $2000.

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If it works, start a go fund me and I'm sure we'll all make it up fo you.