Trump has made a nice turnaround in the Polymarket which has about a billion dollars being placed.

PredictIt has always had a Harris bias but that is basically 50/50.

The Nate Silver betting model still has Harris the favorite 51-47

🚨 BREAKING: Trump just SOARED to an all-time high against Kamala Harris with a 13.5-point lead in this morning's Polymarket. pic.twitter.com/RtSi3E2ogv

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 15, 2024

I placed $2,000 on Harris in PredictIt a few months ago.

Normally I would cash out now and invest it in the stock market.

but back in 2016 I placed $2,000 on Clinton and we won so being superstitious should I just keep the money invested in Harris to hopefully lose.

would be worth it. on the other hand it's $2000.

LMCane said:

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I placed $2,000 on Harris in PredictIt a few months ago.

Normally I would cash out now and invest it in the stock market.

but back in 2016 I placed $2,000 on Clinton and we won so being superstitious should I just keep the money invested in Harris to hopefully lose.

would be worth it. on the other hand it's $2000.

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Consider it an investment to get Trump back in the White House. You'll make up for the $2000 loss with less inflation, less taxes, and a healthy stock market and overall economy.

LMCane said:

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I placed $2,000 on Harris in PredictIt a few months ago.

Normally I would cash out now and invest it in the stock market.

but back in 2016 I placed $2,000 on Clinton and we won so being superstitious should I just keep the money invested in Harris to hopefully lose.

would be worth it. on the other hand it's $2000.

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all i know is i like your commitment to the cause.

GigEmMortis said:

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LMCane said:

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I placed $2,000 on Harris in PredictIt a few months ago.

Normally I would cash out now and invest it in the stock market.

but back in 2016 I placed $2,000 on Clinton and we won so being superstitious should I just keep the money invested in Harris to hopefully lose.

would be worth it. on the other hand it's $2000.

---

Consider it an investment to get Trump back in the White House. You'll make up for the $2000 loss with less inflation, less taxes, and a healthy stock market and overall economy.

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correct!

that is why for superstitious purposes I'm willing to just bite the loss (hopefully)

LMCane said:

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GigEmMortis said:

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LMCane said:

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I placed $2,000 on Harris in PredictIt a few months ago.

Normally I would cash out now and invest it in the stock market.

but back in 2016 I placed $2,000 on Clinton and we won so being superstitious should I just keep the money invested in Harris to hopefully lose.

would be worth it. on the other hand it's $2000.

---

Consider it an investment to get Trump back in the White House. You'll make up for the $2000 loss with less inflation, less taxes, and a healthy stock market and overall economy.

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correct!

that is why for superstitious purposes I'm willing to just bite the loss (hopefully)

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Hardest working man in oil out there taking one for the people.

I'll take $2k if you don't want it. Would be nice with a kid on the way.

It's an emotional hedge bet. I do it all the time when the Ags are favored. Bet on the other team then if the Ags lose, it's not as hard to take because I made some money. But if the Ags win, I'm happy and don't care about the money I lost.

Your $2,000 isn't changing the fact the Trump is gonna beat this imbecile comfortably. So, cash out now. Save it, and then stimulate the economy with it after January 20, 2025!

Hungry Ojos said:

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It's an emotional hedge bet. I do it all the time when the Ags are favored. Bet on the other team then if the Ags lose, it's not as hard to take because I made some money. But if the Ags win, I'm happy and don't care about the money I lost.

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PredictI October 15, 2024

Trump 53
Harris 49

Agreed! I do the same with the Hurricanes. but that is just for $200 not $2000

at any rate, based on the advice here I will just keep it on PredictIt

and hope the hex works again as it did in 2016.

Do these betting markets ever end up being accurate?

I appreciate superstition but what does your gut say right now? He's even up in the gambling market in Michigan now. I don't think the 4 day pause in 'results' in PA will even matter if the current trends hold up.

Michigan winning chances - Via Polymarket

🔴 Trump 54%
🔵 Harris 47%https://t.co/RyxUg3J9tE

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 15, 2024

Do you guys think the betting markets are affected by the demographics of people that gamble? I would assume most people betting on politics are white college-educated men.

100 percent. The history and modern litigation around betting markets in American politics is strangely humorous and fascinating alike, imho:

Quote:

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And this cautious approach isn't reflected in other betting markets. Polymarket, which can't legally operate stateside (but has plenty of American users via VPNs), is most famous for its presidential election contract, on which nearly $950 million is at stake. While its founders tout it as "the future of news," with Polymarket charts having been integrated into reports from Bloomberg Terminal and CNN, there are traders raising doubts about how predictive it really can be, especially for a high-stakes electoral showdown.

One crypto tracker on X who goes by @Dumpster_DAO pointed out on Sept. 6 that a bunch of accounts on Polymarket banded together to manipulate the odds presented in the real-time president-election contract … because they had set up another market where they bet on who was leading the Polymarket forecast by a particular day. A month before that, British economist Frank Muci wrote a Substack post on how ill-equipped Polymarket's system was to handle the highly contested Venezuelan election, when incumbent dictator Nicolas Maduro disputed public voting tallies in order to claim victory for himself.

The crypto-based resolution program known as UMA, which employs specific stakeholders to help settle and decide disputed outcomes, followed the Venezuelan government line to reward bettors who'd predicted Maduro would "win" reelection, but was overwhelmed and persuaded by other traders (many of them Venezuelan) to have it declare his opponent the winner, even though he was blocked from taking power. No matter which way it would have spun, a lot of people would have lost money and decried the unfair nature of UMA's decisionmaking here. (Lest you believe it's just an issue with foreign elections: PredictIt infamously kept pricing in chances of Trump winning the 2020 election long after Biden's victory was confirmed.)

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More at the link, but I still think these markets are at least as valid/useful in terms of trends as overall public LV polls.

RealClearPolitics Betting Average

October 15, 2024

55.0 Trump

43.9 Harris

LMCane said:

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Hungry Ojos said:

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It's an emotional hedge bet. I do it all the time when the Ags are favored. Bet on the other team then if the Ags lose, it's not as hard to take because I made some money. But if the Ags win, I'm happy and don't care about the money I lost.

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PredictI October 15, 2024

Trump 53
Harris 49

Agreed! I do the same with the Hurricanes. but that is just for $200 not $2000

at any rate, based on the advice here I will just keep it on PredictIt

and hope the hex works again as it did in 2016.

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I don't bet on elections but if I did I would bet on Harris. Not because I think she will win but because I always lose at gambling.

if i had to put $$ down, I'd bet on Harris no matter what the betting lines are or what the current polls are indicating.

I'd bet on Harris because there's no way they let Trump win again. They've tried hoaxes and impeachments, they've tried imprisonment, they've tried ballot removals, and they're trying assassinations. they've even laid the groundwork for some Iranian attack that conveniently would also set up the war mongering uniparty with the military industrial complex in response. raskin and other dems have also indicated they'll circle back to some 14th amendment BS about "insurrections" to bar him from taking office if he wins.. we've seen how this works in cuba, venezuela, etc. before. marxist regimes don't just let political opposition to the regime win elections.

oh no said:

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if i had to put $$ down, I'd bet on Harris no matter what the betting lines are or what the current polls are indicating.

I'd bet on Harris because there's no way they let Trump win again. They've tried hoaxes and impeachments, they've tried imprisonment, they've tried ballot removals, and they're trying assassinations. they've even laid the groundwork for some Iranian attack that conveniently would also set up the war mongering uniparty with the military industrial complex in response. raskin and other dems have also indicated they'll circle back to some 14th amendment BS about "insurrections" to bar him from taking office if he wins.. we've seen how this works in cuba, venezuela, etc. before. marxist regimes don't just let political opposition to the regime win elections.

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As much as I hate to say it, this is not bad logic.

Catag94 said:

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oh no said:

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if i had to put $$ down, I'd bet on Harris no matter what the betting lines are or what the current polls are indicating.

I'd bet on Harris because there's no way they let Trump win again. They've tried hoaxes and impeachments, they've tried imprisonment, they've tried ballot removals, and they're trying assassinations. they've even laid the groundwork for some Iranian attack that conveniently would also set up the war mongering uniparty with the military industrial complex in response. raskin and other dems have also indicated they'll circle back to some 14th amendment BS about "insurrections" to bar him from taking office if he wins.. we've seen how this works in cuba, venezuela, etc. before. marxist regimes don't just let political opposition to the regime win elections.

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As much as I hate to say it, this is not bad logic.

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I also forgot to mention a few other two things the regime has already used to keep him out before and would do again. Censorship via alignment with big tech platform monopolies and propaganda from the intel/security state through their pravda propaganda media arm to hide bad news about their candidate or propagate lies about the opposition and the intentional un-auditability and lack of anti-fraud controls in the election systems and processes that now use massive amounts of mass-mailed out ballots.

Polymarket has been skyrocketing for Trump the past few hours. 58.1% now to 41.9% for Harris.

Gigemags382 said:

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Polymarket has been skyrocketing for Trump the past few hours. 58.1% now to 41.9% for Harris.

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I don't know much about betting, but couldn't this mean they're just trying to draw in more Trump bets, knowing that kamala is the likely winner?

Catag94 said:

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oh no said:

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if i had to put $$ down, I'd bet on Harris no matter what the betting lines are or what the current polls are indicating.

I'd bet on Harris because there's no way they let Trump win again. They've tried hoaxes and impeachments, they've tried imprisonment, they've tried ballot removals, and they're trying assassinations. they've even laid the groundwork for some Iranian attack that conveniently would also set up the war mongering uniparty with the military industrial complex in response. raskin and other dems have also indicated they'll circle back to some 14th amendment BS about "insurrections" to bar him from taking office if he wins.. we've seen how this works in cuba, venezuela, etc. before. marxist regimes don't just let political opposition to the regime win elections.

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As much as I hate to say it, this is not bad logic.

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Agreed. At this point, I have no doubt that the Progressives are willing to risk true armed civil conflict because they don't think Americans will respond in any organized manner. They are probably right. We live in an era of the individual before the collective. Zero doubt that if he does win the election, they will kill him.

oh no said:

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if i had to put $$ down, I'd bet on Harris no matter what the betting lines are or what the current polls are indicating.

I'd bet on Harris because there's no way they let Trump win again. They've tried hoaxes and impeachments, they've tried imprisonment, they've tried ballot removals, and they're trying assassinations. they've even laid the groundwork for some Iranian attack that conveniently would also set up the war mongering uniparty with the military industrial complex in response. raskin and other dems have also indicated they'll circle back to some 14th amendment BS about "insurrections" to bar him from taking office if he wins.. we've seen how this works in cuba, venezuela, etc. before. marxist regimes don't just let political opposition to the regime win elections.

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Sorry not buying your defeatism. Like we are powerless. We just are not properly led and yet there are some great young and very capable rising stars out there. Musk, DeSantis, Vivick, Vance come to mind right off the bat.

We are not beat by a long shot we just need to nut up and take care of business should the left try to tear up the constitution.

misterguinness said:

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Catag94 said:

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oh no said:

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if i had to put $$ down, I'd bet on Harris no matter what the betting lines are or what the current polls are indicating.

I'd bet on Harris because there's no way they let Trump win again. They've tried hoaxes and impeachments, they've tried imprisonment, they've tried ballot removals, and they're trying assassinations. they've even laid the groundwork for some Iranian attack that conveniently would also set up the war mongering uniparty with the military industrial complex in response. raskin and other dems have also indicated they'll circle back to some 14th amendment BS about "insurrections" to bar him from taking office if he wins.. we've seen how this works in cuba, venezuela, etc. before. marxist regimes don't just let political opposition to the regime win elections.

---

As much as I hate to say it, this is not bad logic.

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Agreed. At this point, I have no doubt that the Progressives are willing to risk true armed civil conflict because they don't think Americans will respond in any organized manner. They are probably right. We live in an era of the individual before the collective. Zero doubt that if he does win the election, they will kill him.

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Sorry but is this defeatism an aggie thing ? Seriously have some hope. My goodness.

ts5641 said:

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Do these betting markets ever end up being accurate?

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just like betting on college football- over time they are accurate but any particular event is no guarantee

obviously, people (other than me) don't like to lose their own money so are going to research the most and place their bet on what seems the most likely

there is also scientific evidence in the "wisdom of crowds" whereby large groups make better decisions than any one individual.

but obviously Clinton on the night of election in 2016 was a high favorite on PredictIt and lost a few hours later.

I would be feeling better if Nate Silver's Betting Tool started to show Trump pulling ahead.

Casino's make money by setting the line somewhere around where they think it will end up splitting the money coming in on both sides. They don't really care if the two teams are Akron State vs. Alabama in football, or how much Alabama wins by, they need to be break even. Sorry if that sounds condescending but to me that's the difference in LV polls vs. markets. The markets are saying a lot more money though is willing to risk losing their wager if Harris wins.

Sportsbooks don't adjust lines to try and get even money.

And Vegas sports betting odds aren't really accurate predictors of outcomes.


These two things are often parroted, but aren't actually true.

Proposition Joe said:

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Sportsbooks don't adjust lines to try and get even money.

And Vegas sports betting odds aren't really accurate predictors of outcomes.


These two things are often parroted, but aren't actually true.

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Which is why we see 50% of them going bankrupt every year? [/sarcasm]

Oh my

Polling is starting to look like Kamala's legs https://t.co/80RAmwvKR1

— Annie (@AnnettePrestia) October 15, 2024

Bovada Trump -145/ clown +125, gained 5 cents in the line since last night at -140/120

Proposition Joe said:

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Sportsbooks don't adjust lines to try and get even money.

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Not sure if serious. The line moves 100 percent as a consequence of where folks are placing wagers (and events, like injuries, akin to something in politics like Kamala talking off script in an interview). This isn't a real big mystery:

Quote:

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One Thing Hasn't Changed: The Goal of Oddsmakers

One thing that hasn't changed since the early days of sports betting is the ultimate aim set by the sportsbooks: balance the action on both sides of a wager.

If you've read our guide on reading and understanding odds, you'll know that you can calculate the implied probability of an event happening simply by performing a few simple calculations.

However, betting lines aren't designed to reflect the real and accurate probability of either outcome. After all, one of the best strategies to getting an edge over your sportsbook is making a wager when you think there's a discrepancy between the real probability of an event and the implied probability determined from a betting line.

How Are Odds Determined?

Odds are engineered to attract equal action on both sides of a betting line. In a perfect world, a sportsbook receives equal betting volume on both sides of a wager then, win or lose, they'll make 5-10% on the juice (or 'vig').

As such, it's integral to understand that the chief function of oddsmakers isn't to create an accurate (and probable) picture of realityit's to mitigate your sportsbook's risk. Think of contemporary oddsmakers as risk management professionals, as well as expert sports predictors.

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neither will the Economic Club of Chicago interview, or the Pennsylvania rally where he stood swaying for 39 minutes. He's locked in.

you should go all in. what could go wrong in the next 20 days?

Value in the line is gone now. The time to do it was about a month ago when he was about +120 or so.

Catag94 said:

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Your $2,000 isn't changing the fact the Trump is gonna beat this imbecile comfortably. So, cash out now. Save it, and then stimulate the economy with it after January 20, 2025!

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It's not guaranteed yet. Remember the dems will cheat