https://www.inc.com/kit-eaton/musk-says-a-thousand-tesla-androids-will-be-working-in-his-factories-next-year.html

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We know humanoid robots--androids--are moving from the realm of sci-fi into real- life usefulness. Every tech pundit from Bill Gates to Jeff Bezos seems excited about their promise, and Peter Diamandis, entrepreneur behind the technology-advancing X Prize, even imagines that "millions, then billions" of them are incoming. But will these future visions come true soon?

Elon Musk certainly thinks so. At Tesla's shareholder meeting, the CEO again outlined his plans to make Tesla more of a robot-making company than an EV manufacturer.

…The Optimus robot, which Tesla first revealed as a concept back in late 2021 and has steadily worked to develop since then, may actually become Tesla's key product, Musk thinks. To back up his words, Musk said that Tesla would be using about 1,000 of its own androids next year. The entrepreneur recently said that his company was already trialing two Optimuses on the factory floor.

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Musk does have a way of promising big things, but he gets enough results to keep things going. I find it interesting that he's already planning on diversifying Tesla's products just as the EV backlash builds up momentum.

Oh you don't like EVs? Buy one of our robots.

It has begun. Tesla has 2 of them working on tasks (actual, not made up test tasks) in the factory

Everything he said on Thursday is the same thing he said 3 years ago when the bot program was launched and their vehicle growth was 80% YoY. This isn't a pivot away from EVs, it's a further exploitation of software that was developed for self driving vehicles.

None of this is news.

hph6203 said:

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Everything he said on Thursday is the same thing he said 3 years ago when the bot program was launched and their vehicle growth was 80% YoY. This isn't a pivot away from EVs, it's a further exploitation of software that was developed for self driving vehicles.

None of this is news.

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Except Elon got paid, so expect to see the robot development go into overdrive. He had said before he wasn't comfortable pushing AI at Tesla without a commitment from Tesla including a larger share in Tesla

This is why we need open borders and millions of illegal, unskilled , low IQ humans from Marxist countries. We need more human labor in light of all this automation.

They were already moving fast and Musk had no capacity to slow development while maintaining his compensation, job or the ability to create a competing or related product elsewhere. He would get sued into oblivion if he acted on that threat.

There’s a new bot in town 🤖

Check this out (until the very end)!https://t.co/duFdhwNe3K pic.twitter.com/8pbhwW0WNc

— Tesla Optimus (@Tesla_Optimus) December 13, 2023

hph6203 said:

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Everything he said on Thursday is the same thing he said 3 years ago when the bot program was launched and their vehicle growth was 80% YoY. This isn't a pivot away from EVs, it's a further exploitation of software that was developed for self driving vehicles.

None of this is news.

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Musk never said three years ago that robots would become Tesla's key product. No one claimed he is pivoting away from EVs. Strawman.

Yes, Musk did. And yes the OP did.

hph6203 said:

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Yes, Musk did. And yes the OP did.

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Neither did. Reading comprehension.

He has been saying it since it was announced.

Quote:

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk says the company's robot, named Optimus, will be "worth more than the car business, worth more than FSD."

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techno-ag said:

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I find it interesting that he's already planning on diversifying Tesla's products just as the EV backlash builds up momentum.

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African-Americans!!!!1

hph6203 said:

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He has been saying it since it was announced.

Quote:

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk says the company's robot, named Optimus, will be "worth more than the car business, worth more than FSD."

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techno-ag said:

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I find it interesting that he's already planning on diversifying Tesla's products just as the EV backlash builds up momentum.

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Where does he say it will become Tesla's key product?

So diversifying now means pivoting away from? No. Again, words. Reading comprehension.

Logos Stick said:

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hph6203 said:

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Everything he said on Thursday is the same thing he said 3 years ago when the bot program was launched and their vehicle growth was 80% YoY. This isn't a pivot away from EVs, it's a further exploitation of software that was developed for self driving vehicles.

None of this is news.

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Musk never said three years ago that robots would become Tesla's key product. No one claimed he is pivoting away from EVs. Strawman.

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Yup. It's true he's had irons in the fire. But I think it's great that he can trot out another product right as one is starting to lag in the marketplace and begin falling out of favor.

When he frames it as EVs are failing yes, that's a claim of a pivot. Reading comprehension. Context. The OP has a history of posts. Understanding that history also provides context.

Musk has been saying that energy would be bigger than auto for 5 years or more, he has said self driving will be bigger than cars for just as long, he has said Optimus will be larger than both.

Sounds about right for autonomous cars.

Optimus will greatly exceed this. The economy will be as big as people want it to be.

There will be no scarcity, except that which is artificially created.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 27, 2022

Logos Stick said:

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hph6203 said:

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He has been saying it since it was announced.

Quote:

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk says the company's robot, named Optimus, will be "worth more than the car business, worth more than FSD."

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techno-ag said:

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I find it interesting that he's already planning on diversifying Tesla's products just as the EV backlash builds up momentum.

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Where does he say it will become Tesla's key product?

So diversifying now means pivoting away from? No. Again, words. Reading comprehension.

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He doesn't say that. However, reading the words in the article, it's not hard to comprehend that he may think it.
10MM robots sales per year at 10Kin GP each would far surpass his EVs if it came to be.

People get so emotional over Elon. He's just a highly skilled and successful businessman. Give him kudos and move on, nothing to get worked up about here.

hph6203 said:

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They were already moving fast and Musk had no capacity to slow development while maintaining his compensation, job or the ability to create a competing or related product elsewhere. He would get sued into oblivion if he acted on that threat.

There’s a new bot in town 🤖

Check this out (until the very end)!https://t.co/duFdhwNe3K pic.twitter.com/8pbhwW0WNc

— Tesla Optimus (@Tesla_Optimus) December 13, 2023

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Tesla began as a car company. With the economy as it is now, no one would blame him for focusing Tesla on their fundamentals.

He/Tesla is being sued right now for the mere threat of slow rolling AI at Tesla as well as the creation of a side company, xAI, that exists in a related avenue.

If he actually acted on that threat he would lose his job as Tesla's CEO, would get sued, would lose, would lose his ability to proceed with xAI and the penalties associated with it would threaten his other businesses.

It was not an actionable statement.

hph6203 said:

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He/Tesla is being sued right now for the mere threat of slow rolling AI at Tesla as well as the creation of a side company, xAI, that exists in a related avenue.

If he actually acted on that threat he would lose his job as Tesla's CEO, would get sued, would lose, would lose his ability to proceed with xAI and the penalties associated with it would threaten his other businesses.

It was not an actionable statement.

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Nah. The investment required for AI is quite significant. He could easily hold off on accelerating Tesla's AI, especially concerning Optimus, and "get away with it". Meanwhile, xAI is already planning a ~$10 billion data center. There's considerable inefficiency in the R&D of various AI strategies, and I don't believe it would constitute a breach of his duties if he decided that Tesla should avoid those risks and instead collaborate with xAI on more advanced projects.

You are confused. Tesla's present multiple is dependent upon their development of AI, if they reverted to a vehicle focused business or slow rolled their development of autonomous systems their multiple would be dramatically impacted.

What you're saying is in direct contradiction to what Musk himself just said at their investor meeting on Thursday. That being first to market is extremely important and he said that in reference to their Optimus bot program, which is dependent upon their involvement in AI developments. "Slow rolling" AI being beneficial to Tesla investors is in direct contradiction to what Musk himself said.

The $10 billion figure you're quoting was not stated in reference to xAI, it was stated in reference to Tesla's spend on AI this year. Derived from a combination of their spend on Nvidia H100's (training), Dojo computer (Tesla developed training compute), and Tesla Hardware 4 computers in their vehicles.

Tesla will spend around $10B this year in combined training and inference AI, the latter being primarily in car.

Any company not spending at this level, and doing so efficiently, cannot compete.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 28, 2024

techno-ag said:

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Logos Stick said:

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hph6203 said:

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Everything he said on Thursday is the same thing he said 3 years ago when the bot program was launched and their vehicle growth was 80% YoY. This isn't a pivot away from EVs, it's a further exploitation of software that was developed for self driving vehicles.

None of this is news.

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Musk never said three years ago that robots would become Tesla's key product. No one claimed he is pivoting away from EVs. Strawman.

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Yup. It's true he's had irons in the fire. But I think it's great that he can trot out another product right as one is starting to lag in the marketplace and begin falling out of favor.

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What the hell y'all talking about "starting to lag"?

Perhaps BEV's in general are lagging but TESLA model Y again became the most sold car worldwide.

TESLA isn't hurting as the rest of the automobile manufacturers, including ICE vehicles. We're in a high interest rate recessionary economy, car sales are supposed to be down. Even the used car bubble is popping.

VitruvianAg said:

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techno-ag said:

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Logos Stick said:

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hph6203 said:

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Everything he said on Thursday is the same thing he said 3 years ago when the bot program was launched and their vehicle growth was 80% YoY. This isn't a pivot away from EVs, it's a further exploitation of software that was developed for self driving vehicles.

None of this is news.

---

Musk never said three years ago that robots would become Tesla's key product. No one claimed he is pivoting away from EVs. Strawman.

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Yup. It's true he's had irons in the fire. But I think it's great that he can trot out another product right as one is starting to lag in the marketplace and begin falling out of favor.

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What the hell y'all talking about "starting to lag"?

Perhaps BEV's in general are lagging but TESLA model Y again became the most sold car worldwide.

TESLA isn't hurting as the rest of the automobile manufacturers, including ICE vehicles. We're in a high interest rate recessionary economy, car sales are supposed to be down. Even the used car bubble is popping.

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https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/04/02/business/tesla-sales

Quote:

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Tesla posted its first annual drop in sales since the first year of the pandemic, as increased electric vehicle competition from Chinese and Western automakers ate into demand.

CEO Elon Musk's electric car company reported it built 433,000 vehicles but delivered only 387,000. That's down from the 484,507 cars it delivered in the final three months of 2023, and it's also down from the 422,875 vehicle sales in the first quarter of last year.

Tesla has responded to increased competition by cutting prices. Although Tesla is more profitable than traditional automakers, the price cuts have been squeezing the profit margins that helped boost the stock. Investors' expectations that the company would grow sales in the future had also been supporting Tesla's lofty stock price, which made it the world's most valuable automaker.

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hph6203 said:

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When he frames it as EVs are failing yes, that's a claim of a pivot. Reading comprehension. Context. The OP has a history of posts. Understanding that history also provides context.

Musk has been saying that energy would be bigger than auto for 5 years or more, he has said self driving will be bigger than cars for just as long, he has said Optimus will be larger than both.

Sounds about right for autonomous cars.

Optimus will greatly exceed this. The economy will be as big as people want it to be.

There will be no scarcity, except that which is artificially created.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 27, 2022

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Would like to have more context on Elon's comments here. I have huge respect for the guy and largely stay out of the Elon arguments.

However, robots will not solve scarcity. Until we have unlimited resources via an as yet invented technology and/or efficient access to space resources scarcity will never be solved.

hph6203 said:

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You are confused. Tesla's present multiple is dependent upon their development of AI, if they reverted to a vehicle focused business or slow rolled their development of autonomous systems their multiple would be dramatically impacted.

What you're saying is in direct contradiction to what Musk himself just said at their investor meeting on Thursday. That being first to market is extremely important and he said that in reference to their Optimus bot program, which is dependent upon their involvement in AI developments. "Slow rolling" AI being beneficial to Tesla investors is in direct contradiction to what Musk himself said.

The $10 billion figure you're quoting was not stated in reference to xAI, it was stated in reference to Tesla's spend on AI this year. Derived from a combination of their spend on Nvidia H100's (training), Dojo computer (Tesla developed training compute), and Tesla Hardware 4 computers in their vehicles.

Tesla will spend around $10B this year in combined training and inference AI, the latter being primarily in car.

Any company not spending at this level, and doing so efficiently, cannot compete.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 28, 2024

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I'm not confused. The figure in your post also includes inference which of course Tesla needs to spend a lot on. I am also aware that they spend a lot on training too, as they need to for their FSD, and I wasn't insinuating at all that they will be slowing down efforts related to that. I just dont' think Tesla will build any SOTA LLM's (or whatever architecture suplants LLM's) for Optimus. The $10B I saw was actually a mutliple year commitment from xAI to Oracle, but they are working to having one of the largest AI datacenters sometime next year.

Extremely bullish on xAI.

Maybe Yann’s just jealous of the incoming “gigafactory of compute”, which will be 4x larger than Meta’s. xAI is adding some major firepower.

“Nvidia's expensive and coveted GPUs are essential for AI firms to train their large language models, and it… pic.twitter.com/BeH2Zy1yic

— Kiri (@Kyrannio) May 29, 2024

BREAKING: Elon Musk has said:

I am uncomfortable growing Tesla, $TSLA, to be a leader in AI & robotics without having ~25% voting control.

Unless that is the case, I would prefer to build products outside of Tesla.

Note: He currently holds a 12.95% stake, per Nasdaq.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) January 15, 2024

Given the pace of technology improvement, it’s not worth sinking 1GW of power into H100s.

The @xAI 100k H100 liquid-cooled training cluster will be online in a few months.

Next big step would probably be ~300k B200s with CX8 networking next summer.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 2, 2024

Bunch of ppl here don't understand venture, Product dev, and pivots

He is already being sued over the 25% comment. He is being sued over the conflict of interest between xAI and Tesla and his poaching of employees from Tesla to xAI. His willingness to say something and his ability to actually execute on it are two entirely different things.

He has a somewhat defensible position if xAI remains in the realm of LLMs/solving math problems, if he extends that into robotics/vision, he is going to lose rapidly, because he has said those are key drivers of value for Tesla in the past. The largest drivers of value in his opinion. Absent his involvement with xAI he might be able to justify slowing development of AI systems, with the existence of xAI as a conflict of interest he has no basis to do that. Not based upon his desire to have more control of the company.

The interpretation of his slowing of development would be anti-competitive behavior between the two companies he leads and his desire to control more of the technology/own more of the technology rather than an actual business case for slowing development. It would be perceived as robbing value from one company to feed his own control/asset increases.


It was a non-actionable threat.

I don't really care about someone suing him, that doesn't mean much. I am sure he would still be getting sued if he stated he wanted to transform Tesla into being the leader of AI instead of focusing on becoming the next GM.

It wasn't non-actionable. The whole jump-off point for Optimus was because of Tesla's advanced vision/autonomy/ world-interaction AI abilities. I am sure they will fully develop those aspects. The "actionable" part of the threat lies in how complex of task Optimus will be able to do without collaboration from xAI. I don't really consider it a "threat". There are a lot of emergent properties you get when developing AI, some are relevant for Tesla and some aren't. So, why should he be obligated to go all out on AI under the Tesla umbrella.

Because he has described it as a value driver of the company. He cannot simultaneously say its a main driver of the value of the company and then roll that value driver into another company that he owns more of. He has previously stated that if an investor does not believe that Tesla will solve autonomous driving, then they should not be a shareholder in the company.

Musk's own comments sink his base argument. As it stands he has the capacity to say that he was merely discussing robotization/autonomous driving as a value creator of Tesla. If he stops production on that and proceeds with AI development elsewhere he is at risk of the perception of favoring his own value generation rather than the shareholders he is beholden to. If he proceeds with what is perceived as urgency on the development of robotics/autonomous driving he has a defensible position, because he has never discussed the development of LLMs with respect to Tesla.

Even so he is on shaky ground, because he has previously made public statements about the conflict of interest between Tesla and OpenAI competing for the same talent. A very constrained pool of talent.

In 2019, when I asked Elon what was the conflict of interest between OpenAI and Tesla, he said it was because Tesla and OpenAI were going after the same talent.
In 2023, he started xAI and personally recruited people from Tesla on top of competing for the same outside talent.… https://t.co/KUDF06vp4N pic.twitter.com/iDZmUkTHaN

— Fred Lambert (@FredericLambert) June 14, 2024

hph6203 said:

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He has previously stated that if an investor does not believe that Tesla will solve autonomous driving, then they should not be a shareholder in the company.

Musk's own comments sink his base argument. As it stands he has the capacity to say that he was merely discussing robotization/autonomous driving as a value creator of Tesla. If he stops production on that and proceeds with AI development elsewhere he is at risk of the perception of favoring his own value generation rather than the shareholders he is beholden to. If he proceeds with what is perceived as urgency on the development of robotics/autonomous driving he has a defensible position, because he has never discussed the development of LLMs with respect to Tesla.

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I feel like you are agreeing with what I'm saying, but your wording makes it seem like a dispute.

Mr President Elect said:

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It wasn't non-actionable. The whole jump-off point for Optimus was because of Tesla's advanced vision/autonomy/ world-interaction AI abilities. I am sure they will fully develop those aspects.

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The impetus of this back and forth was a poster stating that now that Elon has "gotten paid" (he didn't actually get paid with the recent vote) that Tesla is going to go into overdrive into development of Optimus. That is not accurate, because if he held up development of Optimus with respect to the yes/no vote on his compensation package he would be subject to serious legal issues.

As it stands he has some basis of argument for the existence of xAI in parallel with Tesla's AI development, because they are in related, but not the exact same fields. He is under potential legal problems because they are in related fields. Like if he decided to create an electric boat company while heading development of electric motor systems under Tesla. Does it mean he absolutely would lose that lawsuit? No, but he would have to justify that there's enough differentiation between the two for the two companies to exist, and he is going to have to make that defense with respect to xAI.


So what I'm doing is agreeing with you that it's possible that xAI can exist independently from Tesla, but that is not a certainty, and that the yes/no vote on his compensation could have absolutely zero impact on the development of Optimus. If it did he would be in legal trouble.


ETA: With respect to xAI operating independently of Tesla and it not being a conflict of interest, he's going to run into further dispute of it not being anti-competitive when Tesla integrates xAI's LLM into the voice control systems of Tesla's vehicles and Optimus.

YouBet said:

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hph6203 said:

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When he frames it as EVs are failing yes, that's a claim of a pivot. Reading comprehension. Context. The OP has a history of posts. Understanding that history also provides context.

Musk has been saying that energy would be bigger than auto for 5 years or more, he has said self driving will be bigger than cars for just as long, he has said Optimus will be larger than both.

Sounds about right for autonomous cars.

Optimus will greatly exceed this. The economy will be as big as people want it to be.

There will be no scarcity, except that which is artificially created.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 27, 2022

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Would like to have more context on Elon's comments here. I have huge respect for the guy and largely stay out of the Elon arguments.

However, robots will not solve scarcity. Until we have unlimited resources via an as yet invented technology and/or efficient access to space resources scarcity will never be solved.

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Depends on the source of the scarcity. If the scarcity exists, because of a lack of material in the ground it doesn't have an impact, if it's a surface level demand issue due to cost then it does.

Obviously all material is scarce in its existence, but most material is scarce due to our lack of ability to cost effectively extract it. That's where robots drive down costs and reduce prices resulting in more demand/increased production. Even then if you extract materials into scarcity below ground, you have reworkable materials above ground, which has cost reductions from automation as well.