I will answer my own question. I'd say 5%. Play it out 20 times it happens. once.

The thing to keep in mind with Russia and China is much of what they do militarily is about optics and bravado, their hard power is very limited.

This is about trying to show strength and mess with us, it's certainly not about some real threat.

agsalaska said:

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I will answer my own question. I'd say 5%. Play it out 20 times it happens. once.

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Odds jump to 80% in the next four years if Biden wins in November.

Sid Farkas said:

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agsalaska said:

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I will answer my own question. I'd say 5%. Play it out 20 times it happens. once.

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Odds jump to 80% in the next four years if Biden wins in November.

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I don't know about that. But i do believe in the gradually than suddenly theory. My guess is that most people will not suspect it to happen until a few weeks before it does.

Turns out ships can go where they want in international waters. They've sailed to Cuba and/or Venezuela many many times.

agsalaska said:

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So I am 47. Lets say I live to 87.

In the next 40 years what are the odds I either live through or witness a nuclear war?

Your best guess.

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0% you live through it and if it strikes close enough, you may not witness it.

Livetosmoke said:

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Turns out ships can go where they want in international waters. They've sailed to Cuba and/or Venezuela many many times.

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...but without MSM coverage and fear mongering.

Didn't seem to stop all those old Afghan dudes from entering with their wife and two "daughters."

Slicer97 said:

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akm91 said:

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Don't forget RV's

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The polygamy might cause some issues with the visa status though.

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I'm sure they're scared ****less of biden.

agsalaska said:

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I will answer my own question. I'd say 5%. Play it out 20 times it happens. once.

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Good evening Dr. Falken, would you like to play a game?

Should be an interesting week for our Navy in the Atlantic and Caribbean.

https://news.usni.org/2024/06/12/russian-naval-group-arrives-in-cuba-u-s-increasing-atlantic-naval-presence

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Russian Naval Group Arrives in Cuba, U.S. Increasing Atlantic Naval Presence
SAM LAGRONE US Naval Institute NewsJUNE 12, 2024 6:30 PM

The four-ship Russian Navy action group arrived in Havana on Wednesday for a five-day port visit, local media reported.

Guided-missile submarine Kazan, guided-missile frigate Admiral Gorshkov, salvage tug Nikolai Chiker and fleet oiler kademik Pashin pulled in on Wednesday as part of the Russian Ministry of Defense's planned series of exercises in the western Atlantic and the Caribbean.

Gorshkov and Kazan are among the most advanced ships in the Russian Navy and can be armed with a variety of anti-ship and land attack missiles, USNI News reported earlier this week.

Following the port visit, the ships plan to hold joint air and naval drills in the region, Russian military officials have said.

"During the exercise, the crews of the frigate and the nuclear-powered submarine have been practicing the use of high-precision missile weapons by means of computer modelling against sea targets, which indicate ship groups of the conditional enemy and are located at a distance of more than 600 kilometers," said head of the Russian Navy, Adm. Alexander Moiseyev, according to Euro News....

....

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Livetosmoke said:

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Turns out ships can go where they want in international waters. They've sailed to Cuba and/or Venezuela many many times.

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Thank you.
Captain Obvious.

This is no coincidence, I'm sure.

Any chance to listen and observe whatever Ivan is doing, we'll take it.

Why is it that Russia's almost always ahead of us militarily?

They have hypersonics, and we don't. They made thrust vectoring in jet fighters a thing long before we did. They exploded a device almost 4X what our biggest bomb ever yielded, so we quit testing.

And we keep kicking them in the shins begging them to obliterate us?

Oh, and they have Poseidon nuclear torpedos ready to destroy the east coast, west coast, Gulf coast, and Britain/France/etc. tomorrow?

If you didn't think libs and RINOs were suicidal freaks, you need to rethink your stance.

Actually we were developing thrust vectoring before the Soviets and later Russians were doing it. They simply added it to an existing design (SU-27 family) where we built it into the next generation of fighters.

As for the Tsar Bomba, it was a militarily useless weapon. The Soviets basically built it because they wanted to tell the world they had the biggest nuke.

We could have built one too, or even bigger as theoretically there is no upper limit for a nuclear bomb, but what would be the point?

And we did not stop testing because of the Tsar Bomba. The US and Soviet Union both agreed to stop all but underground nuclear testing and signed the Limited Test Ban Treaty. US nuclear testing continued until 1992.

As for hypersonics, we could have had them decades ago (starting with the Skybolt missile) but it was canceled due to cost and some technical problems, as well as the success of the Polaris SLBM.

peacedude said:

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Why is it that Russia's almost always ahead of us militarily?

They have hypersonics, and we don't. They made thrust vectoring in jet fighters a thing long before we did. They exploded a device almost 4X what our biggest bomb ever yielded, so we quit testing.

And we keep kicking them in the shins begging them to obliterate us?

Oh, and they have Poseidon nuclear torpedos ready to destroy the east coast, west coast, Gulf coast, and Britain/France/etc. tomorrow?

If you didn't think libs and RINOs were suicidal freaks, you need to rethink your stance.

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Rapier addressed the specifics, but if you actually think Russia is ahead of us militarily, after being more or less stalemated by a country 3x smaller using our hand me down weapons, you should probably rethink your sources and examine the motivation of wherever you're reading that.

They won't attack us because they know it will result in their immediate destruction. Putin is a lot of things but he's not suicidal.

1) They put thrust vectoring into action long before we did. It was our idea in the 50's, but we waited 50 years to adopt the technology: https://jalopnik.com/the-a-6-intruder-was-originally-designed-with-thrust-ve-1560922846

2) Above ground tests were curtailed after Tsar Bomba, but we (and they) obviously continued under ground. No above ground tests in well over 50 years.

3) Hypersonics? We still don't have any, and have stooped so low that our ICBM tests are now considered "hypersonic" missile tests: https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/21/asia/us-tests-hypersonic-missile-pacific-guam-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

Quote:

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1) They put thrust vectoring into action long before we did. It was our idea in the 50's, but we waited 50 years to adopt the technology: https://jalopnik.com/the-a-6-intruder-was-originally-designed-with-thrust-ve-1560922846

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And the Russians came up with stealth and didn't do anything with it, even allowed the information to be made public.

It doesn't matter if they slapped it onto a SU-27. It wasn't because we couldn't have put it into a F-15 or F-16, but decided it wasn't worth it at the time. All 5th generation fighters have it, as will the upcoming 6th generation.

Quote:

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2) Above ground tests were curtailed after Tsar Bomba, but we (and they) obviously continued under ground. No above ground tests in well over 50 years.

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The negotiations for the Limited Test Ban Treaty were already underway well before the Tsar Bomba. It had little to do with the ending of atmospheric nuclear testing by the US and Soviets, except perhaps to convince both sides it was a good idea.

As for the hypersonics, as I said, we chose not to proceed with development of them 50 years ago. We could have done it if we had wanted to, but most likely, the tech just wasn't ready at that time.

I feel like I'm reading about the "bomber gap" and "missile gap" hysteria all over again. And for the record, there was never a bomber or missile gap with the Soviets. We were always ahead of them.

Slicer97 said:

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I wonder if their XO has a fondness for plump females, bunnies, and underpopulated mountainous states.

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Hice Hunt for Red October reference.

Putin is your friend, he means no harm, go back to sleep america

Hypersonics was all the "gotta have" buzz a few years ago, along with AI.

Turns out the thinking on hypersonics has cooled to "meh". They're super easy to track and not too hard to counter due to the incredible heat signature.

Mother Russia ain't got isht.

This isn't the video I was looking for, but it's decent.

When they make the movie The Cuban Missile Crisis Part Two they need to get Tom Hanks to play biden. He can use his Forrest Gump character but make it Dark Gump and dumb him down a little.

Florida man

Here you have it, DOD doesn't regard the Russian naval fleet arrival as a threat to the U.S.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense/3045858/us-submarine-arrives-cuba-day-after-russian-navy-docked-havana/

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US submarine arrives in Cuba a day after Russian navy docked in Havana
By Mike Brest June 14, 2024 3:58 pm

A U.S. Navy submarine arrived in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, on Thursday, a day after Russian naval vessels arrived in the area for drills with the island nation.

"The fast-attack submarine USS Helena is in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, as part of a routine port visit as it transits the U.S. Southern Command geographic area of responsibility while conducting its global maritime security and national defense mission," U.S. Southern Command said.

The Navy rarely announces specific movements of its submarines, indicating U.S. defense officials wanted the world to know the location of the USS Helena.

The Department of Defense said it doesn't view the Russian naval fleet arrival as a threat to the United States.

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