harge57 said:

---

Oil and gas production has increased under every administration democrat and republican. Democrats just make it more expensive.

---

How about from the early 70s to 2012? We were in free fall from 1986 to 2012 which spans both Bushes, the end of Reagan, Clinton and the start of Obama. Then along came the great American capitalism system to commercialize horizontal drilling and modern fracking technology. We have enjoyed an amazing renaissance since then.

I agree that the administrations don't have that much to do with changes in production. They can help and hurt on the margins and definitively affect production costs but at the end of the day, the great American men and women in the oil patch have the greatest impact.

With the Costco discount I paid $3.65 this morning. FJB.

Kansas Kid said:

---

Again, I never said it was the only thing that affects gasoline prices and I said it was an approximation. There are times where gasoline changes dramatically over a short period of time due to things like refinery outages and pipeline disruptions. I was answering the OP question about what has happened for the last 6 weeks or so. For that period, the main reason for the drop is due to the drop in crude because of easing global tensions and concerns about demand from a weakening global economy as shown by your own calculations. If you want to talk about what has happened over the last 10+ years, again the main change has been crude oil but we have also seen major shifts in product flows due to US energy exports, higher refinery utilizations, changes in regulations, etc.

If you want to get into detailed discussions about refinery operations, product margins, etc, I am happy to do it. I have essentially my entire career in the business. I am not trying to be difficult, I was just answering the OP question for what has happened in the last few months.

---

Okay. More smoke from you. Let's get back to your original BS.

Quote:

---

Quote:

---

Quote:

---

Kansas Kid said:

Oil dropped about $.20/gal as concerns about Middle East escalation have gone down and global inventories are up. Concerns about the Chinese and American economies aren't helping.

---

---

I did the conversion from bbls for the poster when he said it was down about $.25/gal. Here is the chart of WTI over the last 6 months. Over the last month and a half, it is down from mid to upper $80s/bbl to $77/bbl which is $.21-.24/gal.

---

Show you work on how you made the conversion from $/bbl crude to $/gal gasoline.

You essentially already showed my work and that the move is gasoline is essentially the same as the move in crude. But since you don't think I know anything, here is the American Petroleum Institute report showing the correlation you seem to think doesn't exist despite the chart above showing a high, but not perfect, correlation.

"Nationwide on a quarterly basis, crude oil prices have explained more than 90% of the variation in gasoline prices since 2020. Moreover, this direct relationship has historically been at its strongest when oil prices have risen than when they have fallen."

Again, I never said the absolute price of gasoline is oil/42 but the change is gasoline is highly correlated the change in oil price/42. I don't see why you somehow think I have an agenda here or why this is such a controversial concept for you but whatever this is Texags so I know common sense is frequently uncommon.

https://www.api.org/oil-and-natural-gas/energy-primers/gas-prices-explained#:~:text=Nationwide%20on%20a%20quarterly%20basis,than%20when%20they%20have%20fallen.

Old McDonald said:

---

techno-ag said:

---

Old McDonald said:

---

backintexas2013 said:

---

Who was locked down at the end of 2020 other than covid Nazis

---

are you suggesting gas prices were not still depressed by pandemic related global demand collapse in late 2020?

---

Trump had a pro oil policy. You can't just hand wave that away. Biden shut the pipelines down FIRST DAY in office.

Try harder.

---

if the $2 gas prices in 2020 were because of trump's pro oil policy and not covid demand collapse, why weren't they $2 before the pandemic?

---

You mean like in Jan of 2019?

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=m

Again, it's beyond comical that anyone could support anything Biden has done related to the economy. He has been an abject failure in that regard.

Kansas Kid said:

---

You essentially already showed my work and that the move is gasoline is essentially the same as the move in crude. But since you don't think I know anything, here is the American Petroleum Institute report showing the correlation you seem to think doesn't exist despite the chart above showing a high, but not perfect, correlation.

"Nationwide on a quarterly basis, crude oil prices have explained more than 90% of the variation in gasoline prices since 2020. Moreover, this direct relationship has historically been at its strongest when oil prices have risen than when they have fallen."

Again, I never said the absolute price of gasoline is oil/42 but the change is gasoline is highly correlated the change in oil price/42. I don't see why you somehow think I have an agenda here or why this is such a controversial concept for you but whatever this is Texags so I know common sense is frequently uncommon.

https://www.api.org/oil-and-natural-gas/energy-primers/gas-prices-explained#:~:text=Nationwide%20on%20a%20quarterly%20basis,than%20when%20they%20have%20fallen.

---

It just so happened that the change in crude price tracked to ~$0.25/gal. Lucky you. You don't have an agenda other than to blow smoke after you got called out for making a mistake.

Also, for somebody in the know and 'so familiar' with the industry you should know better than to make the direct correlation. I doubt your credibility and will take this exchange into consideration when reading your future posts.

bobbranco said:

---

Kansas Kid said:

---

You essentially already showed my work and that the move is gasoline is essentially the same as the move in crude. But since you don't think I know anything, here is the American Petroleum Institute report showing the correlation you seem to think doesn't exist despite the chart above showing a high, but not perfect, correlation.

"Nationwide on a quarterly basis, crude oil prices have explained more than 90% of the variation in gasoline prices since 2020. Moreover, this direct relationship has historically been at its strongest when oil prices have risen than when they have fallen."

Again, I never said the absolute price of gasoline is oil/42 but the change is gasoline is highly correlated the change in oil price/42. I don't see why you somehow think I have an agenda here or why this is such a controversial concept for you but whatever this is Texags so I know common sense is frequently uncommon.

https://www.api.org/oil-and-natural-gas/energy-primers/gas-prices-explained#:~:text=Nationwide%20on%20a%20quarterly%20basis,than%20when%20they%20have%20fallen.

---

It just so happened that the change in crude price tracked to ~$0.25/gal. Lucky you. You don't have an agenda other than to blow smoke after you got called out for making a mistake.

Also, for somebody in the know and 'so familiar' with the industry you should know better than to make the direct correlation. I doubt your credibility and will take this exchange into consideration when reading your future posts.

---

So if you are so smart, what caused the change in gasoline prices if it wasn't mostly due to the change in oil price? Are you also saying API doesn't know anything as well because they say historically 90% of the change in gasoline prices is the change in oil price?
Talk about someone trying to defend themselves when the error in their analysis is pointed out.

PS. If you go read my original post, I said oil dropped ABOUT $.20/gal and the OP was asking why pump prices had dropped $0.25/gal. How you think that means I am saying their is a perfect 1:1 price change is beyond me when if I thought that, I would have said crude dropped $.25/gal.

Kansas Kid said:

---

bobbranco said:

---

Kansas Kid said:

---

You essentially already showed my work and that the move is gasoline is essentially the same as the move in crude. But since you don't think I know anything, here is the American Petroleum Institute report showing the correlation you seem to think doesn't exist despite the chart above showing a high, but not perfect, correlation.

"Nationwide on a quarterly basis, crude oil prices have explained more than 90% of the variation in gasoline prices since 2020. Moreover, this direct relationship has historically been at its strongest when oil prices have risen than when they have fallen."

Again, I never said the absolute price of gasoline is oil/42 but the change is gasoline is highly correlated the change in oil price/42. I don't see why you somehow think I have an agenda here or why this is such a controversial concept for you but whatever this is Texags so I know common sense is frequently uncommon.

https://www.api.org/oil-and-natural-gas/energy-primers/gas-prices-explained#:~:text=Nationwide%20on%20a%20quarterly%20basis,than%20when%20they%20have%20fallen.

---

It just so happened that the change in crude price tracked to ~$0.25/gal. Lucky you. You don't have an agenda other than to blow smoke after you got called out for making a mistake.

Also, for somebody in the know and 'so familiar' with the industry you should know better than to make the direct correlation. I doubt your credibility and will take this exchange into consideration when reading your future posts.

---

So if you are so smart, what caused the change in gasoline prices if it wasn't mostly due to the change in oil price? Are you also saying API doesn't know anything as well because they say historically 90% of the change in gasoline prices is the change in oil price?
Talk about someone trying to defend themselves when the error in their analysis is pointed out.

PS. If you go read my original post, I said oil dropped ABOUT $.20/gal and the OP was asking why pump prices had dropped $0.25/gal. How you think that means I am saying their is a perfect 1:1 price change is beyond me when if I thought that, I would have said crude dropped $.25/gal.

---

If you had ONLY stated that when there is a rise or fall in crude price, gasoline prices fluctuate the same. Nothing more and nothing less and I would not have posted Wut?. No you doubled down and defended the amount and posted a graph that directly contradicts everything you state. You went on to state that the $/bbl for $/gal are easily equated. I showed where that is historically untrue based on the $20/bbl. All on the graph you posted. Blow that smoke salesman.

No Spin Ag said:

---

2004FIGHTINTXAG said:

---

Remember when it was sub $2 at the end of 2020.

---

I do. I also remember that nearly all of the country was basically closed for business then, so there was a significant drop in the need for people to buy gas.

---

I also remember when it was sub $2 at the end of 2018

Dan Scott said:

---

The American O&G industry was near collapse in 2020. Mass layoffs, cash flow negative, huge debt, and halted projects. That's what $2 gas gets you.

Today the American O&G industry is as strong as ever. $75-$85 oil is good medium for industry and consumer. That's about $3 gas.

The average car has a gas tank of about 15 gallons. Consumers are ok filling the tank for <$50. When it goes above the $50 psychological level is when people get mad.

---

I guess I'm above average.

I only get mad when I have to run my card twice to fill up the tank.

I remember those limits in California at $50, $75 and $100.

In Texas now, I rarely spend more than $60 at the pump.

Elect Trump for energy independence.

Kansas Kid said:

---

You essentially already showed my work and that the move is gasoline is essentially the same as the move in crude. But since you don't think I know anything, here is the American Petroleum Institute report showing the correlation you seem to think doesn't exist despite the chart above showing a high, but not perfect, correlation.

"Nationwide on a quarterly basis, crude oil prices have explained more than 90% of the variation in gasoline prices since 2020. Moreover, this direct relationship has historically been at its strongest when oil prices have risen than when they have fallen."

Again, I never said the absolute price of gasoline is oil/42 but the change is gasoline is highly correlated the change in oil price/42. I don't see why you somehow think I have an agenda here or why this is such a controversial concept for you but whatever this is Texags so I know common sense is frequently uncommon.

https://www.api.org/oil-and-natural-gas/energy-primers/gas-prices-explained#:~:text=Nationwide%20on%20a%20quarterly%20basis,than%20when%20they%20have%20fallen.

---

No use arguing with those that deny that gasoline prices are highly correlated with crude price.

Most taxes on gasoline, which are significant, are in $/gallon, so that portion does not correlate at all. Transportation and refining costs are somewhat correlated with oil price, but not linear (energy costs for refining relate more to natural gas and electricity, not crude, for example, and labor costs are not at all correlated with crude).

Agreed. We could have a real fun discussion about how gasoline prices are better correlated to Brent crude than WCS crude is correlated to Brent but I didn't think that was worth trying to explain.

Quote:

---

No use arguing with those that deny that gasoline prices are highly correlated with crude price.

---

Never made any such claim. Some people do not comprehend the English language to this day. And reading is fundamental.

Sorry for not reading 3 pages of post before posting

Biden's handlers released more from the strategic oil reserve a few days ago.

Quote:

---

In an effort to reduce gasoline prices this summer, the Biden administration is releasing approximately one million barrels of reserve gasoline supplies. The gasoline will be released in 100,000-barrel increments from reserves in Maine and New Jersey created after Superstorm Sandy.

Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm described the move as a strategic release between Memorial Day and July 4th to ensure sufficient supply for the tri-state and northeast regions during a period of high demand.

"The Biden-Harris Administration is laser-focused on lowering prices at the pump for American families, especially as drivers hit the road for summer driving season," Granholm stated.

---

Elect Trump for energy independence.

Throw out the buns who are manipulating our economy for their own power and who are taking bribes from all over the world.

Since this thread got bumped, what was with that nearly 50c increase last week?

Overnight it shot up over 15%... is that because the weak tropical storm gave them a reason to gouge consumers?

This gas price see saw has been going on for several years. Gas goes up 30 cents a gallon to say $3.19 and stays there for 2 weeks or so then starts creeping back down until it's $2.75 a gallon. Then overnight it goes up to $3.29/gal and stays for a couple weeks then creeps back down to $2.83/gal for a day or 2 then jumps to $3.39/gal for 3 weeks and the cycle continues .........it's a game the suppliers are playing to gradually get the gas price up.
It's like the frog in the pot of water.........if you increase the heat gradually the frog doesn't even notice he's being cooked until it's too late. I'm surprised none of ya'll have figured this out yet .....it's been happening for at least 2 years.

Not Coach Jimbo said:

---

Since this thread got bumped, what was with that nearly 50c increase last week?

Overnight it shot up over 15%... is that because the weak tropical storm gave them a reason to gouge consumers?

---

July 4 driving season. 70 million Americans expected to hit the road.

techno-ag said:

---

Not Coach Jimbo said:

---

Since this thread got bumped, what was with that nearly 50c increase last week?

Overnight it shot up over 15%... is that because the weak tropical storm gave them a reason to gouge consumers?

---

July 4 driving season. 70 million Americans expected to hit the road.

---

That makes sense. However I did see a news story the other day talking about how airline tickets are lower this year than they were last year.


Is there a chance ticket prices will go up with this recent bump?

Old McDonald said:

---

deep state pulling strings to make biden look good, don't fall for it

---

I know you are being sarcastic and don't believe a word of your post.

techno-ag said:

---

Not Coach Jimbo said:

---

Since this thread got bumped, what was with that nearly 50c increase last week?

Overnight it shot up over 15%... is that because the weak tropical storm gave them a reason to gouge consumers?

---

July 4 driving season. 70 million Americans expected to hit the road.

---

Doubt it, gas prices are already headed back down (down 13c) from the high on Thursday.

The overall trend has mostly been headed down, lower lows, lower highs. Iirc memorial day weekend was a dud on traveling.

Interesting data regarding oil imports and exports.
Oil and petroleum products explained Oil imports and exports
The interactive chart lets you select which parameters to display.
Without President Biden's EOs attacking the Oil/Gas industry along with the EPAs interference wonder what the results could have been.
Maybe the effects of the this Administration's assault on the natural gas industry have had greater effect.

Rattler12 said:

---

This gas price see saw has been going on for several years. Gas goes up 30 cents a gallon to say $3.19 and stays there for 2 weeks or so then starts creeping back down until it's $2.75 a gallon. Then overnight it goes up to $3.29/gal and stays for a couple weeks then creeps back down to $2.83/gal for a day or 2 then jumps to $3.39/gal for 3 weeks and the cycle continues .........it's a game the suppliers are playing to gradually get the gas price up.
It's like the frog in the pot of water.........if you increase the heat gradually the frog doesn't even notice he's being cooked until it's too late. I'm surprised none of ya'll have figured this out yet .....it's been happening for at least 2 years.

---

What hasn't happened before is a puppet Chinese president emptying our strategic reserves for political theater.

Love Gun said:

---

Memorial Day weekend has passed and less people are traveling. Besides, they need to appease the alphabet mafia this month.

---

fewer

Never dropped below 3.15
What this dude smokin

No Spin Ag said:

---

I've seen gas as low as $2.74 a gallon, which is a twenty-five-cent drop over the past few weeks. Many on here said the SPR release was only going to account for a few cents drop and not something like this.

Do any of you in O&G know why this drop when we're all used to prices jumping in the beginning of summer?

---

Because gas is volatile.

MookieBlaylock said:

---

Never dropped below 3.15
What this dude smokin

---

It was below $3 for quite awhile in Corpus...

Of course, living next to the refineries is helpful.

Rattler12 said:

---

This gas price see saw has been going on for several years. Gas goes up 30 cents a gallon to say $3.19 and stays there for 2 weeks or so then starts creeping back down until it's $2.75 a gallon. Then overnight it goes up to $3.29/gal and stays for a couple weeks then creeps back down to $2.83/gal for a day or 2 then jumps to $3.39/gal for 3 weeks and the cycle continues .........it's a game the suppliers are playing to gradually get the gas price up.
It's like the frog in the pot of water.........if you increase the heat gradually the frog doesn't even notice he's being cooked until it's too late. I'm surprised none of ya'll have figured this out yet .....it's been happening for at least 2 years.

---

Not as sinister as you make it. The gas station pays for the product at today's prices for supply he receives in a couple weeks. In those couple weeks prices decline so his competition buys product cheaper and sells it cheaper. This forces the gas station operator to sell his gas at a loss to stay competitive with market.

But when it comes time to pay for the next supply, the operator buys low. Then prices increase. The operator to prepare for his next supply order needs to up the price so he has the cash to purchase the next order. At the same time needs to make up the losses from his last supply purchase. Therefore prices will always go up fast. The operator will only reduce prices to keep up with the competition and because everybody tries to sell for the most they can get away with, prices come down slowly.

$2.75 today in Beaumont