https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/sites/texaspolitics.utexas.edu/files/202404_poll_topline.pdf

I was actually worried about this one, but it seems to be pretty safe now. Allred is human garbage and much more dangerous than Beto. He's a true believer where Beto is more of a pure grifter.

Still need to work like you are behind.
the other side works very hard.

Owlagdad said:

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Still need to work like you are behind.
the other side works very hard.

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And they can count ballots using the new math

Not in Texas. Abbott and the lege shored a lot of fraud avenues.

I was never conserved about the reality this race, only about the shenanigans the Left will do. Like Rush said, you have to win enough votes outside the cheat zone.

Just wait...Allred is going to roll out a ton of pro-abortion ads that will be complete strawmans and false hoods that will scare the women into voting for him.

Ads showing an empty gurney in a dark operating room telling women that their lives are in danger because of Cruz and the Republicans anti-abortion legislation.

Other ads like Newsom's scaring women into thinking they will be arrested if they go out of state for an abortion or order the at-home pill.

It's going to be ugly, folks. Really, really ugly.

but but f16 tells me Texas is turning blue

me confused

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but but f16 tells me Texas is turning blue

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it is. any day now. "next election"

reminds me of the "Free beer tomorrow" signs

Fortunately for Cruz, this is during a presidential election. But you can bet Lina and company have been working nonstop to try and get "votes" in Harris County. And once they're in, its too late.

BMX Bandit said:

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Quote:

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but but f16 tells me Texas is turning blue

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it is. any day now. "next election"

reminds me of the "Free beer tomorrow" signs

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I guess I, unlike some, am able to see a trend and recognize where it leads to. It's not happening this cycle, but within the decade, statewide races are going to shift from Republican locks to toss ups.

Texas' population is increasingly urbanized (Houston, DFW, SA, Austin). Its urban population is increasingly democrat. And that democrat base is increasingly leftist. Short of a significant black swan event, those trends aren't reversing. What's happened to Harris County in the past 15 years is a foreshadowing of the future of Texas politics.

P.H. Dexippus said:

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BMX Bandit said:

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Quote:

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but but f16 tells me Texas is turning blue

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it is. any day now. "next election"

reminds me of the "Free beer tomorrow" signs

---

I guess I, unlike some, am able to see a trend and recognize where it leads to. It's not happening this cycle, but within the decade, statewide races are going to shift from Republican locks to toss ups.

Texas' population is increasingly urbanized (Houston, DFW, SA, Austin). Its urban population is increasingly democrat. And that democrat base is increasingly leftist. Short of a significant black swan event, those trends aren't reversing. What's happened to Harris County in the past 15 years is a foreshadowing of the future of Texas politics.

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Someone made this exact post 10 years ago. And someone made it again 10 years before then.

Teslag said:

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P.H. Dexippus said:

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BMX Bandit said:

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Quote:

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but but f16 tells me Texas is turning blue

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it is. any day now. "next election"

reminds me of the "Free beer tomorrow" signs

---

I guess I, unlike some, am able to see a trend and recognize where it leads to. It's not happening this cycle, but within the decade, statewide races are going to shift from Republican locks to toss ups.

Texas' population is increasingly urbanized (Houston, DFW, SA, Austin). Its urban population is increasingly democrat. And that democrat base is increasingly leftist. Short of a significant black swan event, those trends aren't reversing. What's happened to Harris County in the past 15 years is a foreshadowing of the future of Texas politics.

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Someone made this exact post 10 years ago. And someone made it again 10 years before then.

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I don't see Texas turning blue anytime soon, but Texas isn't anywhere near as red as it once was either, and likely never will be.

John Armfield said:

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but but f16 tells me Texas is turning blue

me confused

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Demographics and immigration, both illegal across the border as well as influx of blue state residents, make this all but a certainty in time. The question is how long will it take.

Just look at recent elections. Suburbs like Willamson County outside Austin which has been deep red forever, turned blue. The trend is pretty obvious.

No Spin Ag said:

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Teslag said:

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P.H. Dexippus said:

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BMX Bandit said:

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Quote:

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but but f16 tells me Texas is turning blue

---

it is. any day now. "next election"

reminds me of the "Free beer tomorrow" signs

---

I guess I, unlike some, am able to see a trend and recognize where it leads to. It's not happening this cycle, but within the decade, statewide races are going to shift from Republican locks to toss ups.

Texas' population is increasingly urbanized (Houston, DFW, SA, Austin). Its urban population is increasingly democrat. And that democrat base is increasingly leftist. Short of a significant black swan event, those trends aren't reversing. What's happened to Harris County in the past 15 years is a foreshadowing of the future of Texas politics.

---

Someone made this exact post 10 years ago. And someone made it again 10 years before then.

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I don't see Texas turning blue anytime soon, but Texas isn't anywhere near as red as it once was either, and likely never will be.

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I would argue the state legislature is redder than it ever has been by far.

BMX Bandit said:

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Quote:

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but but f16 tells me Texas is turning blue

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it is. any day now. "next election"

reminds me of the "Free beer tomorrow" signs

---

I see this mockery a lot around here and don't understand it. It's simply a matter of math. The fact that it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean it's not in progress and inevitable. It's like if you mocked the idea 20 years ago that we were on the path to have more Hispanics than whites in Texas. Well, that happened last year.

And if Hispanics vote in Texas 2-1 for Democrats, and every year the percentage of Hispanics goes up, the flip is a mathematical certainty. It's the deniers that should be mocked.



According to survey data, Trump was more popular amongst white voters, 65% of white voters supported Trump while 35% of white voters supported Biden.

Biden connected with Black and Latino voters, survey data indicates that 89% of Black voters and 67% of Latino voters supported the Democratic nominee.

Here's how Texans voted in the 2020 election by age, race and more, according to AP's VoteCast (ksat.com)

Joes said:

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BMX Bandit said:

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Quote:

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but but f16 tells me Texas is turning blue

---

it is. any day now. "next election"

reminds me of the "Free beer tomorrow" signs

---

I see this mockery a lot around here and don't understand it. It's simply a matter of math. The fact that it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean it's not in progress and inevitable. It's like if you mocked the idea 20 years ago that we were on the path to have more Hispanics than whites in Texas. Well, that happened last year.

And if Hispanics vote in Texas 2-1 for Democrats, and every year the percentage of Hispanics goes up, the flip is a mathematical certainty. It's the deniers that should be mocked.



According to survey data, Trump was more popular amongst white voters, 65% of white voters supported Trump while 35% of white voters supported Biden.

Biden connected with Black and Latino voters, survey data indicates that 89% of Black voters and 67% of Latino voters supported the Democratic nominee.

Here's how Texans voted in the 2020 election by age, race and more, according to AP's VoteCast (ksat.com)

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Again, this same post was posted 10 years ago. And 20 years ago. And you can't apply a linear progression with hispanics since many of them are now trending conservative so your curves with diverge.

And someone offered your opinion on California in the 1980s. It still flipped from solidly Republican.

Artorias said:

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John Armfield said:

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but but f16 tells me Texas is turning blue

me confused

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Demographics and immigration, both illegal across the border as well as influx of blue state residents, make this all but a certainty in time. The question is how long will it take.

Just look at recent elections. Suburbs like Willamson County outside Austin which has been deep red forever, turned blue. The trend is pretty obvious.

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But, then go look at the RGV.

It used to be DARK blue. It's now light blue with some red areas...

The fact that the hispanic vote is note going all in on Dems is definitely helping to keep TX red.

And Texas' rural counties are now all deep red when 20 years ago many of them were blue because of Reagan democrats. But those are all dying off now.

If Rs are trading rural counties for suburbs of major cities, that is a losing proposition.

And gaining Hispanics.

Teslag said:

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And gaining Hispanics.

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Don't get me wrong, I hope you all are right and TX stays Red forever.

Polling registered likely eligible human voters is a good indicator for how people are leaning. Unfortunately, you can't poll all the mass-mailed out ballots that will be harvested, nor all the new registrations that don't require proof of citizenship or ID, rendering the polls useless.

Quote:

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But, then go look at the RGV.

It used to be DARK blue. It's now light blue with some red areas...

The fact that the hispanic vote is note going all in on Dems is definitely helping to keep TX red.

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Great point!

Texas very well may turn Blue one day. Nothing stays the same forever.

But the "Texas is purple! SQWAK! Texas is purple!" we have heard for last 20 years is a bunchy of baloney.

oh no said:

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Polling registered likely eligible human voters is a good indicator for how people are leaning. Unfortunately, you can't poll all the mass-mailed out ballots that will be harvested, nor all the new registrations that don't require proof of citizenship or ID, rendering the polls useless.

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There are no mass mailout ballots in Texas.

Artorias said:

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If Rs are trading rural counties for suburbs of major cities, that is a losing proposition.

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Some of it is that Rs are moving out of the cities and to the rural counties...this leaves the cities darker blue...

Texas has been turning blue for 20 years according to Libs despite Abortion Barbie, Beto, biker chick and now Allred getting their teeth kicked in every election.

Teslag said:

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Joes said:

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BMX Bandit said:

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Quote:

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but but f16 tells me Texas is turning blue

---

it is. any day now. "next election"

reminds me of the "Free beer tomorrow" signs

---

I see this mockery a lot around here and don't understand it. It's simply a matter of math. The fact that it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean it's not in progress and inevitable. It's like if you mocked the idea 20 years ago that we were on the path to have more Hispanics than whites in Texas. Well, that happened last year.

And if Hispanics vote in Texas 2-1 for Democrats, and every year the percentage of Hispanics goes up, the flip is a mathematical certainty. It's the deniers that should be mocked.



According to survey data, Trump was more popular amongst white voters, 65% of white voters supported Trump while 35% of white voters supported Biden.

Biden connected with Black and Latino voters, survey data indicates that 89% of Black voters and 67% of Latino voters supported the Democratic nominee.

Here's how Texans voted in the 2020 election by age, race and more, according to AP's VoteCast (ksat.com)

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Again, this same post was posted 10 years ago. And 20 years ago. And you can't apply a linear progression with hispanics since many of them are now trending conservative so your curves with diverge.

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You're telling me my trend doesn't count because it hasn't happened yet, but then you immediately say "the hard demonstrable voting patterns don't matter because they will trend away from that in the future."

Math is 100% on my side, only hope is on yours. I've heard that for decades too, that "Hispanics are inherently conservative and will trend red" but it's never happened. The demographic changes are happening though.

Quote:

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It's not happening this cycle, but within the decade, statewide races are going to shift from Republican locks to toss ups.

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you have been around long enough to remember in 2008 when people said the exact same thing on this board.

thankfully, we are protected from seeing any pre-2020 posts, otherwise I'd bump one


like others, I'm not saying it will never happen.

BMX Bandit said:

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Quote:

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It's not happening this cycle, but within the decade, statewide races are going to shift from Republican locks to toss ups.

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you have been around long enough to remember in 2008 when people said the exact same thing on this board.

thankfully, we are protected from seeing any pre-2020 posts, otherwise I'd bump one


like others, I'm not saying it will never happen.

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But this isn't something that either will happen or not happen at an instant as some random event. It IS happening, it's demonstrable data.

It's just weird to me that people don't see it.

It's like I've pushed a bowling ball down a 12 foot slide, we can see and measure the descent, and yet someone is at the side saying "They claim it's on the way to hit the ground but they said that at 2 feet down and then 4 feet down and then 6 feet down and it still hasn't happened so obviously they're wrong."

Allred has my phone number as my daughter's. My answers to his campaign texts are not likely what he wants to hear.

Joes said:

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BMX Bandit said:

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Quote:

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It's not happening this cycle, but within the decade, statewide races are going to shift from Republican locks to toss ups.

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you have been around long enough to remember in 2008 when people said the exact same thing on this board.

thankfully, we are protected from seeing any pre-2020 posts, otherwise I'd bump one


like others, I'm not saying it will never happen.

---

But this isn't something that either will happen or not happen at an instant as some random event. It IS happening, it's demonstrable data.

It's just weird to me that people don't see it.

It's like I've pushed a bowling ball down a 12 foot slide, we can see and measure the descent, and yet someone is at the side saying "They claim it's on the way to hit the ground but they said that at 2 feet down and then 4 feet down and then 6 feet down and it still hasn't happened so obviously they're wrong."

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Yep.

Collin Allred winning Congressional District 32 should have been the canary in the coal mine for everyone paying attention.

That district was solid red since it was created in 2000. It not only elected Allred in 2018, it re-elected him in 2022 when there should have been a red wave that didn't materialize.

Pay attention to Denton, Collin, and Williamson counties over the next two election cycles.

i'm paying close attention. I even have a thread tracking this trend with results from 2016, 2018, 2020 and 2022. I will update it in november:

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3090786/replies/55876397

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it re-elected him in 2022

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in a redrawn district to protect him. same thing with fletcher in houston

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it re-elected him in 2022 when there should have been a red wave that didn't materialize.

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District 32 was re-drawn prior to the 2022 election to purposely concentrate democrat voters.

As others have mentioned, the main reason Texas isn't trending more Democrat is because Hispanic voters are trending more Republican, which actually bodes well for the GOP's future prospects.

In general, the profile of Hispanic voters in Texas is increasingly looking more like that of the white, non-Hispanic portion of the electorate, and if current trends persist these two groups will eventually become largely indistinguishable. As a side note, these voters, as they increasingly move the GOP, are actually more likely to self-identify as MAGA and/or conservative than their white counterparts.

If the Democrats want to reestablish their dominance with Hispanic voters, the most likely way they can do so is through mass illegal immigration, and either waiting for the new arrival to become citizens and legal voters, or more likely just registering them to vote illegally like they do already.

Results from the two latest polls on the presidential race in Texas amongst Hispanic voters:

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/sites/texaspolitics.utexas.edu/files/202404_poll_crosstabs.pdf

Trump +13 (5 way race)
Trump +12 (head to head w/Biden)

https://www.txhpf.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/TXHPFPresidentSenateApr2024.pdf

Trump +4 (5 way race, note: TXHPF is a left-leaning organization)