Heineken-Ashi said:

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LOYAL AG said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

LOYAL AG said:

---

pfo said:

---

Washington DC has spent, borrowed and printed America into a very dangerous fiscal situation. No currency has survived a 120% debt to GDP without a major debasement. Add in the fact America has used the SWIFT System to punish our adversaries and now we have the BRICs central banks on an 18 month gold buying spree to back their currencies to replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency. The dollar is facing a historic collapse and the jack wagons in Congress aren't even talking about reducing spending and ending their economic malfeasance. The loss of world's reserve currency status means inflation in America will go way up!

America has enjoyed 40 years of declining interest rates so the debt service didn't balloon as congress kept adding debt. So now cheap debt is getting rolled over at higher interest rates therefore debt service is going up. Where is that money coming from to pay for that? Borrowing and printing! The dollar is doomed and the people running this country are doing it on purpose under the partial illusion of incompetence.

Own gold, bitcoin, real estate, oil and gas minerals, possibly stocks in the strongest companies and other things of real value that will maintain value as the dollar becomes more and more worthless.

Maybe the gov will use another trick to keep the illusion of prosperity going a little longer. Like putting the debt on the Fed's balance sheet and stopping paying interest. Maybe something else. But at some point, the chickens are coming home to roost.

---

Most of this makes sense but the idea that BRICS nations are buying gold to supplant the dollar with an asset based currency is absurd. None of those nations are even remotely fiscally responsible now so why on earth would they implement a new currency that's backed by gold? The notion is ridiculous.

If the dollar collapses it all collapses at which point gold and stocks and dollars are all worthless. Guns, ammo, food and a reliable water source is what's going to matter. There isn't a scenario where the dollar collapses and chaos isn't the result. Wealth preservation isn't going to matter. Food and physical security is what we'll all be worried about.

---

Why would gold be worthless? It's the longest historical store of value that has been used as a currency historically (land being the more historical store of value - but not used as currency). If the point you are trying to make is that people wont be able to afford buying it with useless US$, I can get on board with that. But gold will continue to have value whether the dollar is a thing or not.

---

My point is that currency is going to be meaningless for a decent period of time. This isn't going to be a smooth transition to anything we think of as currency. The collapse of the only relevant currency in the world is going to result in a dysfunctional economy. The dollar cannot be replaced by any other currency in existence today. This is much closer to Mad Max than to a world where even gold would matter. Lead will matter more than gold. Yes gold will matter on the other side of the collapse but are you going to live long enough to see that day?

---

I don't disagree about the painfulness. But Gold won't just stop being valuable. It will hold it's value like it always has. People might not have access to it, and it might not be easily storeable, protectable, and useable, but it wont be any less valuable. If you think it will, you will need to explain why it didn;t lose it's value when Rome collapsed.

---

I think we're talking different timelines. Yes gold will have value. No you and I aren't going to be able to use it for anything meaningful. I just don't think wealth preservation is going to be what any of us focuses on. Food, shelter and security are what we're going to need. Currency is a very distant concern. Can you eat and can you defend yourself and your family from people who are looking for food once HEB runs out? Wealth preservation requires economic stability and we aren't going to have that for awhile.

BTKAG97 said:

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CDUB98 said:

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Shutting down gov't spending immediately would absolutely cause an economic catastrophe. It would be instant recession, if not depression, to remove that much of the GDP instantly.

---

There is historical evidence after WW2 that disproves this. Understandably it's not an apples to apples comparison.

---

Can you explain? Genuinely curious.

WWII was the only other time in history we were at these debt to GDP levels. The debt ballooned due to New deal spending and war spending. Once the spending was halted, the economy didnt' collapse because it had already bottomed before the war and we entered a revolutionary period of industrial innovation and productivity growth that outpaced the deflationary effects of less spending. The dollar was also tied to a stable store of value. Once we left the gold standard, we entered into a multi decade period of war-like ever increasing deficit spending and debt growth in a relative time of peace. We devalued and depressed our currency which in turn kept asset prices inflating. We are now at WWII levels of debt and entering a likely period of turmoil and potential war with no levers to pull to increase spending without cratering the dollar.

In simpler terms, WWII and now are apples and oranges.

LOYAL AG said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

---

LOYAL AG said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

LOYAL AG said:

---

pfo said:

---

Washington DC has spent, borrowed and printed America into a very dangerous fiscal situation. No currency has survived a 120% debt to GDP without a major debasement. Add in the fact America has used the SWIFT System to punish our adversaries and now we have the BRICs central banks on an 18 month gold buying spree to back their currencies to replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency. The dollar is facing a historic collapse and the jack wagons in Congress aren't even talking about reducing spending and ending their economic malfeasance. The loss of world's reserve currency status means inflation in America will go way up!

America has enjoyed 40 years of declining interest rates so the debt service didn't balloon as congress kept adding debt. So now cheap debt is getting rolled over at higher interest rates therefore debt service is going up. Where is that money coming from to pay for that? Borrowing and printing! The dollar is doomed and the people running this country are doing it on purpose under the partial illusion of incompetence.

Own gold, bitcoin, real estate, oil and gas minerals, possibly stocks in the strongest companies and other things of real value that will maintain value as the dollar becomes more and more worthless.

Maybe the gov will use another trick to keep the illusion of prosperity going a little longer. Like putting the debt on the Fed's balance sheet and stopping paying interest. Maybe something else. But at some point, the chickens are coming home to roost.

---

Most of this makes sense but the idea that BRICS nations are buying gold to supplant the dollar with an asset based currency is absurd. None of those nations are even remotely fiscally responsible now so why on earth would they implement a new currency that's backed by gold? The notion is ridiculous.

If the dollar collapses it all collapses at which point gold and stocks and dollars are all worthless. Guns, ammo, food and a reliable water source is what's going to matter. There isn't a scenario where the dollar collapses and chaos isn't the result. Wealth preservation isn't going to matter. Food and physical security is what we'll all be worried about.

---

Why would gold be worthless? It's the longest historical store of value that has been used as a currency historically (land being the more historical store of value - but not used as currency). If the point you are trying to make is that people wont be able to afford buying it with useless US$, I can get on board with that. But gold will continue to have value whether the dollar is a thing or not.

---

My point is that currency is going to be meaningless for a decent period of time. This isn't going to be a smooth transition to anything we think of as currency. The collapse of the only relevant currency in the world is going to result in a dysfunctional economy. The dollar cannot be replaced by any other currency in existence today. This is much closer to Mad Max than to a world where even gold would matter. Lead will matter more than gold. Yes gold will matter on the other side of the collapse but are you going to live long enough to see that day?

---

I don't disagree about the painfulness. But Gold won't just stop being valuable. It will hold it's value like it always has. People might not have access to it, and it might not be easily storeable, protectable, and useable, but it wont be any less valuable. If you think it will, you will need to explain why it didn;t lose it's value when Rome collapsed.

---

I think we're talking different timelines. Yes gold will have value. No you and I aren't going to be able to use it for anything meaningful. I just don't think wealth preservation is going to be what any of us focuses on. Food, shelter and security are what we're going to need. Currency is a very distant concern. Can you eat and can you defend yourself and your family from people who are looking for food once HEB runs out? Wealth preservation requires economic stability and we aren't going to have that for awhile.

---

I see your point. I slightly disagree about gold, but not enough to continue arguing. Thank you.

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

LOYAL AG said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

LOYAL AG said:

---

pfo said:

---

Washington DC has spent, borrowed and printed America into a very dangerous fiscal situation. No currency has survived a 120% debt to GDP without a major debasement. Add in the fact America has used the SWIFT System to punish our adversaries and now we have the BRICs central banks on an 18 month gold buying spree to back their currencies to replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency. The dollar is facing a historic collapse and the jack wagons in Congress aren't even talking about reducing spending and ending their economic malfeasance. The loss of world's reserve currency status means inflation in America will go way up!

America has enjoyed 40 years of declining interest rates so the debt service didn't balloon as congress kept adding debt. So now cheap debt is getting rolled over at higher interest rates therefore debt service is going up. Where is that money coming from to pay for that? Borrowing and printing! The dollar is doomed and the people running this country are doing it on purpose under the partial illusion of incompetence.

Own gold, bitcoin, real estate, oil and gas minerals, possibly stocks in the strongest companies and other things of real value that will maintain value as the dollar becomes more and more worthless.

Maybe the gov will use another trick to keep the illusion of prosperity going a little longer. Like putting the debt on the Fed's balance sheet and stopping paying interest. Maybe something else. But at some point, the chickens are coming home to roost.

---

Most of this makes sense but the idea that BRICS nations are buying gold to supplant the dollar with an asset based currency is absurd. None of those nations are even remotely fiscally responsible now so why on earth would they implement a new currency that's backed by gold? The notion is ridiculous.

If the dollar collapses it all collapses at which point gold and stocks and dollars are all worthless. Guns, ammo, food and a reliable water source is what's going to matter. There isn't a scenario where the dollar collapses and chaos isn't the result. Wealth preservation isn't going to matter. Food and physical security is what we'll all be worried about.

---

Why would gold be worthless? It's the longest historical store of value that has been used as a currency historically (land being the more historical store of value - but not used as currency). If the point you are trying to make is that people wont be able to afford buying it with useless US$, I can get on board with that. But gold will continue to have value whether the dollar is a thing or not.

---

My point is that currency is going to be meaningless for a decent period of time. This isn't going to be a smooth transition to anything we think of as currency. The collapse of the only relevant currency in the world is going to result in a dysfunctional economy. The dollar cannot be replaced by any other currency in existence today. This is much closer to Mad Max than to a world where even gold would matter. Lead will matter more than gold. Yes gold will matter on the other side of the collapse but are you going to live long enough to see that day?

---

I don't disagree about the painfulness. But Gold won't just stop being valuable. It will hold it's value like it always has. People might not have access to it, and it might not be easily storeable, protectable, and useable, but it wont be any less valuable. If you think it will, you will need to explain why it didn;t lose it's value when Rome collapsed.

---

The world Rome collapsed into didn't acknowledge the existence of things which can't be seen and touched as having real intrinsic value. The idea was simply inconceivable to them.

The one thing I will say about this, and I've made this point before, is that the BRICS countries will continue to grow, because over time we have outsourced our recessions onto developing countries due to their dependence on the dollar. When we see weakness, they see devastation. They won't go to war with us and try to end the dollar because they feel like they can do better. They will do so because they have no other choice. Continuing to let the Us manipulate their economies and currencies, crushing them for our our kick the can gain, has depressed them to the point where their backs are against a wall. Yes, it will depress them further to leave the dollar standard. But they feel like they have no choice which is why you are starting to see the boldened moves and cracks forming around the world. WWIII will happen, not because anyone thinks they have a shot or can do better, but because they feel they can't live like they have been any longer.

LOYAL AG said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

LOYAL AG said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

LOYAL AG said:

---

pfo said:

---

Washington DC has spent, borrowed and printed America into a very dangerous fiscal situation. No currency has survived a 120% debt to GDP without a major debasement. Add in the fact America has used the SWIFT System to punish our adversaries and now we have the BRICs central banks on an 18 month gold buying spree to back their currencies to replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency. The dollar is facing a historic collapse and the jack wagons in Congress aren't even talking about reducing spending and ending their economic malfeasance. The loss of world's reserve currency status means inflation in America will go way up!

America has enjoyed 40 years of declining interest rates so the debt service didn't balloon as congress kept adding debt. So now cheap debt is getting rolled over at higher interest rates therefore debt service is going up. Where is that money coming from to pay for that? Borrowing and printing! The dollar is doomed and the people running this country are doing it on purpose under the partial illusion of incompetence.

Own gold, bitcoin, real estate, oil and gas minerals, possibly stocks in the strongest companies and other things of real value that will maintain value as the dollar becomes more and more worthless.

Maybe the gov will use another trick to keep the illusion of prosperity going a little longer. Like putting the debt on the Fed's balance sheet and stopping paying interest. Maybe something else. But at some point, the chickens are coming home to roost.

---

Most of this makes sense but the idea that BRICS nations are buying gold to supplant the dollar with an asset based currency is absurd. None of those nations are even remotely fiscally responsible now so why on earth would they implement a new currency that's backed by gold? The notion is ridiculous.

If the dollar collapses it all collapses at which point gold and stocks and dollars are all worthless. Guns, ammo, food and a reliable water source is what's going to matter. There isn't a scenario where the dollar collapses and chaos isn't the result. Wealth preservation isn't going to matter. Food and physical security is what we'll all be worried about.

---

Why would gold be worthless? It's the longest historical store of value that has been used as a currency historically (land being the more historical store of value - but not used as currency). If the point you are trying to make is that people wont be able to afford buying it with useless US$, I can get on board with that. But gold will continue to have value whether the dollar is a thing or not.

---

My point is that currency is going to be meaningless for a decent period of time. This isn't going to be a smooth transition to anything we think of as currency. The collapse of the only relevant currency in the world is going to result in a dysfunctional economy. The dollar cannot be replaced by any other currency in existence today. This is much closer to Mad Max than to a world where even gold would matter. Lead will matter more than gold. Yes gold will matter on the other side of the collapse but are you going to live long enough to see that day?

---

I don't disagree about the painfulness. But Gold won't just stop being valuable. It will hold it's value like it always has. People might not have access to it, and it might not be easily storeable, protectable, and useable, but it wont be any less valuable. If you think it will, you will need to explain why it didn;t lose it's value when Rome collapsed.

---

I think we're talking different timelines. Yes gold will have value. No you and I aren't going to be able to use it for anything meaningful. I just don't think wealth preservation is going to be what any of us focuses on. Food, shelter and security are what we're going to need. Currency is a very distant concern. Can you eat and can you defend yourself and your family from people who are looking for food once HEB runs out? Wealth preservation requires economic stability and we aren't going to have that for awhile.

---

"Wealthy" industrialized economies have collapsed to varying degrees many times on the basis of inflation since the start of the Industrial Revolution, but you have to go back to a time before the Second World War when such a nation did so to the point where it devolved into anything like the Mad Max sort of scenario you seem to be imagining. This idea that America will soon be a land where people are fighting to the death over the last loaf of bread is just survivalist fantasy porn.

CDUB98 said:

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Shutting down gov't spending immediately would absolutely cause an economic catastrophe. It would be instant recession, if not depression, to remove that much of the GDP instantly.

It took decades for this mess to build, it will take decades to get out. Smart policy is what is needed, but smarts is exactly what gov't lacks.

---

So, just keep spending? We are in a recession (and have been for a good minute) headed for a depression. We just need to rip the band aid off and say GO TO WORK.

That won't get anyone elected in America today, so we are back at square one. Country is lost.

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

The one thing I will say about this, and I've made this point before, is that the BRICS countries will continue to grow, because over time we have outsourced our recessions onto developing countries due to their dependence on the dollar. When we see weakness, they see devastation. They won't go to war with us and try to end the dollar because they feel like they can do better. They will do so because they have no other choice. Continuing to let the Us manipulate their economies and currencies, crushing them for our our kick the can gain, has depressed them to the point where their backs are against a wall. Yes, it will depress them further to leave the dollar standard. But they feel like they have no choice which is why you are starting to see the boldened moves and cracks forming around the world. WWIII will happen, not because anyone thinks they have a shot or can do better, but because they feel they can't live like they have been any longer.

---

But none of the economies that matter enough to really make this happen are willing to go all in on it. And certainly not enough of them to ACTUALLY cause the status quo to change.

OneProudAg said:

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CDUB98 said:

---

Shutting down gov't spending immediately would absolutely cause an economic catastrophe. It would be instant recession, if not depression, to remove that much of the GDP instantly.

It took decades for this mess to build, it will take decades to get out. Smart policy is what is needed, but smarts is exactly what gov't lacks.

---

So, just keep spending? We are in a recession (and have been for a good minute) headed for a depression. We just need to rip the band aid off and say GO TO WORK.

That won't get anyone elected in America today, so we are back at square one. Country is lost.

---

Nah, we'll continue to suffer through an inflationary period for the next decade or so while our manufacturing base shifts back to this hemisphere and we deal with the fallout of the impending demographic and economic collapses of Russia and China respectively. But by 2040 we'll be even more dominant relative to the rest of the world than we are now, and Mexico will probably be the fastest growing economy in human history to boot.

Infection_Ag11 said:

---

OneProudAg said:

---

CDUB98 said:

---

Shutting down gov't spending immediately would absolutely cause an economic catastrophe. It would be instant recession, if not depression, to remove that much of the GDP instantly.

It took decades for this mess to build, it will take decades to get out. Smart policy is what is needed, but smarts is exactly what gov't lacks.

---

So, just keep spending? We are in a recession (and have been for a good minute) headed for a depression. We just need to rip the band aid off and say GO TO WORK.

That won't get anyone elected in America today, so we are back at square one. Country is lost.

---

Nah, we'll continue to suffer through an inflationary period for the next decade or so while our manufacturing base shifts back to this hemisphere and we deal with the fallout of the impending demographic and economic collapses of Russia and China respectively. But by 2040 we'll be even more dominant relative to the rest of the world than we are now, and Mexico will probably be the fastest growing economy in human history to boot.

---

By 2040 our deficit will be over 100% of our discretionary spending.

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

The one thing I will say about this, and I've made this point before, is that the BRICS countries will continue to grow, because over time we have outsourced our recessions onto developing countries due to their dependence on the dollar. When we see weakness, they see devastation. They won't go to war with us and try to end the dollar because they feel like they can do better. They will do so because they have no other choice. Continuing to let the Us manipulate their economies and currencies, crushing them for our our kick the can gain, has depressed them to the point where their backs are against a wall. Yes, it will depress them further to leave the dollar standard. But they feel like they have no choice which is why you are starting to see the boldened moves and cracks forming around the world. WWIII will happen, not because anyone thinks they have a shot or can do better, but because they feel they can't live like they have been any longer.

---

This I completely agree with. People will want to abandon the U.S. backed system as it becomes too painful to stay in.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Infection_Ag11 said:

---

OneProudAg said:

---

CDUB98 said:

---

Shutting down gov't spending immediately would absolutely cause an economic catastrophe. It would be instant recession, if not depression, to remove that much of the GDP instantly.

It took decades for this mess to build, it will take decades to get out. Smart policy is what is needed, but smarts is exactly what gov't lacks.

---

So, just keep spending? We are in a recession (and have been for a good minute) headed for a depression. We just need to rip the band aid off and say GO TO WORK.

That won't get anyone elected in America today, so we are back at square one. Country is lost.

---

Nah, we'll continue to suffer through an inflationary period for the next decade or so while our manufacturing base shifts back to this hemisphere and we deal with the fallout of the impending demographic and economic collapses of Russia and China respectively. But by 2040 we'll be even more dominant relative to the rest of the world than we are now, and Mexico will probably be the fastest growing economy in human history to boot.

---

By 2040 our deficit will be over 100% of our discretionary spending.

---

Not likely, as the rules of the game will have fundamentally changed by then.

But even if they didn't, this would still only matter to the extent you seem to think in a reality that can't happen as long as the desire for self preservation in humans remains the same.

Infection_Ag11 said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

Infection_Ag11 said:

---

OneProudAg said:

---

CDUB98 said:

---

Shutting down gov't spending immediately would absolutely cause an economic catastrophe. It would be instant recession, if not depression, to remove that much of the GDP instantly.

It took decades for this mess to build, it will take decades to get out. Smart policy is what is needed, but smarts is exactly what gov't lacks.

---

So, just keep spending? We are in a recession (and have been for a good minute) headed for a depression. We just need to rip the band aid off and say GO TO WORK.

That won't get anyone elected in America today, so we are back at square one. Country is lost.

---

Nah, we'll continue to suffer through an inflationary period for the next decade or so while our manufacturing base shifts back to this hemisphere and we deal with the fallout of the impending demographic and economic collapses of Russia and China respectively. But by 2040 we'll be even more dominant relative to the rest of the world than we are now, and Mexico will probably be the fastest growing economy in human history to boot.

---

By 2040 our deficit will be over 100% of our discretionary spending.

---

Not likely, as the rules of the game will have fundamentally changed by then.

But even if they didn't, this would still only matter to the extent you seem to think in a reality that can't happen as long as the desire for self preservation in humans remains the same.

---

Pretty much everything you have stated on this thread uses assumptions that things will ultimately work out because we're America and things just work out for us. I hope you're right, but I'm leaning towards history and economics.

Until the fed govt adopts zero-based budgeting, this has no chance of being fixed. Even then there's much to be done, but this is the first step.

I never hear politicians talking about zero-based budgeting.

Infection_Ag11 said:

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OneProudAg said:

---

CDUB98 said:

---

Shutting down gov't spending immediately would absolutely cause an economic catastrophe. It would be instant recession, if not depression, to remove that much of the GDP instantly.

It took decades for this mess to build, it will take decades to get out. Smart policy is what is needed, but smarts is exactly what gov't lacks.

---

So, just keep spending? We are in a recession (and have been for a good minute) headed for a depression. We just need to rip the band aid off and say GO TO WORK.

That won't get anyone elected in America today, so we are back at square one. Country is lost.

---

Nah, we'll continue to suffer through an inflationary period for the next decade or so while our manufacturing base shifts back to this hemisphere and we deal with the fallout of the impending demographic and economic collapses of Russia and China respectively. But by 2040 we'll be even more dominant relative to the rest of the world than we are now, and Mexico will probably be the fastest growing economy in human history to boot.

---

Wow. SMH.

China is nowhere near the US as far as productivity via technology. They use humans for everything now. That will change radically - it has too - and will more than make up for the loss of human beings in China. No, they are not going to collapse.

You seem to think we will be in better shape because we are importing illegals to make up for population decline, versus Russia and China. Just plug and play, right? LOL. Do you see the humans we are importing into this country? They are low IQ dregs (not their fault, but simply the truth). The people who run the countries they come from, the business leaders, academics, politicians, doctors, etc..., you know, the people with higher IQ, skills and capability are not coming here. We will be supporting all these illegals because we live in the age of AI and automation. They will be a huge drag on growth. We don't need more people pushing lawn mowers or picking lettuce. IQ is largely heritable. We will not be creating wealth going forward like we have in the past. It's utter nonsense to believe we will.

Mexico is still a 3rd world ****hole yet has been right next to the most advanced country and economy to ever grace the earth for 200 years. We've exported manufacturing and capability to them and they are still stuck in the 19th century. They vote for full blown socialists to run their country. The corruption is so thick you can cut it with a knife. Their people risk their lives coming here! China could lose 50% of their population and they would still be five times larger than Mexico! Yet they will become an economic powerhouse by 2040 because you think we will source from there. No.

The interest on our debt at year end will be 40% of the total revenue we take in. Every penny of discretionary spending will have to be borrowed at the point. Most of the mandatory spending will have to be borrowed at that point. We are in a doom loop. Your take is so far away from reality its frightening.

None of us know with any precision how this will play out. What we do know is that the USD is on the path to collapse. That is a mathematically certainty unless some majorly disruptive actions are taken. We all know that won't happen, so that means USD will collapse.

OneProudAg said:

---

So, just keep spending? We are in a recession (and have been for a good minute) headed for a depression. We just need to rip the band aid off and say GO TO WORK.

That won't get anyone elected in America today, so we are back at square one. Country is lost.

---

Correct. That is what we should do but won't. I think most people underestimate how quickly prosperity would reemerge if we returned to freedom, limited government, and sound money/economics.

No one wants cut to entitlements, defense, and tax increases…but that's what it would take.

LOYAL AG said:

---

pfo said:

---

Washington DC has spent, borrowed and printed America into a very dangerous fiscal situation. No currency has survived a 120% debt to GDP without a major debasement. Add in the fact America has used the SWIFT System to punish our adversaries and now we have the BRICs central banks on an 18 month gold buying spree to back their currencies to replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency. The dollar is facing a historic collapse and the jack wagons in Congress aren't even talking about reducing spending and ending their economic malfeasance. The loss of world's reserve currency status means inflation in America will go way up!

America has enjoyed 40 years of declining interest rates so the debt service didn't balloon as congress kept adding debt. So now cheap debt is getting rolled over at higher interest rates therefore debt service is going up. Where is that money coming from to pay for that? Borrowing and printing! The dollar is doomed and the people running this country are doing it on purpose under the partial illusion of incompetence.

Own gold, bitcoin, real estate, oil and gas minerals, possibly stocks in the strongest companies and other things of real value that will maintain value as the dollar becomes more and more worthless.

Maybe the gov will use another trick to keep the illusion of prosperity going a little longer. Like putting the debt on the Fed's balance sheet and stopping paying interest. Maybe something else. But at some point, the chickens are coming home to roost.

---

Most of this makes sense but the idea that BRICS nations are buying gold to supplant the dollar with an asset based currency is absurd. None of those nations are even remotely fiscally responsible now so why on earth would they implement a new currency that's backed by gold? The notion is ridiculous.

If the dollar collapses it all collapses at which point gold and stocks and dollars are all worthless. Guns, ammo, food and a reliable water source is what's going to matter. There isn't a scenario where the dollar collapses and chaos isn't the result. Wealth preservation isn't going to matter. Food and physical security is what we'll all be worried about.

---

This.

It cracks my up that people think physical gold/silver is going to have value in a complete collapse of society. If I've got something you want in that situation, NFW am I taking your word that the 'gold' you have to trade is not only real, but I have an accurate way to weigh it. Now, if you have some canned goods, ammo, a firearm, water, a skill to trade, we can talk. But I can't see a scenario in a situation like that where I care how much gold you will give me. It has zero value as far as I'm concerned in that situation.

K2-HMFIC said:

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No one wants cut to entitlements, defense, and tax increases…but that's what it would take.

---

Cuts? How about simply freezing the spend at current levels for the next 5 years? They won't even do that.

it means the age of social security returns will be raised

exactly when I am about to start taking disbursements

Of course. Just like a stock drops the minute we buy it.

agracer said:

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This.

It cracks my up that people think physical gold/silver is going to have value in a complete collapse of society. If I've got something you want in that situation, NFW am I taking your word that the 'gold' you have to trade is not only real, but I have an accurate way to weigh it. Now, if you have some canned goods, ammo, a firearm, water, a skill to trade, we can talk. But I can't see a scenario in a situation like that where I care how much gold you will give me. It has zero value as far as I'm concerned in that situation.

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The disconnect here is because we don't think it'll be Mad Max style complete collapse. Im not aware of that ever happening from prior examples of currency collapse. Could it happen? Sure. And that's why we all probably agree to have at least some of those things. But even if it did, I would expect some form of civilization to reemerge. When that happens, we will need something better to facilitate trade than the barter system. Thousands of years of history and countless examples of currency collapse says PMs are the best choice for that. I don't know how much wealth you have, but for a lot of us, it would be an unreasonable amount of the things you mentioned to store.

If the IMF is saying it now, you know we are screwed.

Too bad we've been screaming from the hill top for decades to no avail.

Helicopter Ben said:

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agracer said:

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This.

It cracks my up that people think physical gold/silver is going to have value in a complete collapse of society. If I've got something you want in that situation, NFW am I taking your word that the 'gold' you have to trade is not only real, but I have an accurate way to weigh it. Now, if you have some canned goods, ammo, a firearm, water, a skill to trade, we can talk. But I can't see a scenario in a situation like that where I care how much gold you will give me. It has zero value as far as I'm concerned in that situation.

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The disconnect here is because we don't think it'll be Mad Max style complete collapse. Im not aware of that ever happening from prior examples of currency collapse. Could it happen? Sure. And that's why we all probably agree to have at least some of those things. But even if it did, I would expect some form of civilization to reemerge. When that happens, we will need something better to facilitate trade than the barter system. Thousands of years of history and countless examples of currency collapse says PMs are the best choice for that. I don't know how much wealth you have, but for a lot of us, it would be an unreasonable amount of the things you mentioned to store.

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I think your perspective on the disconnect in visions is correct. Personally I see Mad Max because I don't think we can rely on history for the other side of the collapse of the dollar. This isn't a scenario like any other where currency A supplants currency B as the reserve and the overall world keeps functioning. That is history but it's not the present day. In the colonial days we saw rival nations with largely segregated trade systems operating on their own currencies and the nation with the largest navy and strongest economy had the reserve currency. At any given time there were 4+ such systems and currencies so capital could move laterally from A to B to preserve wealth as B weakened.

That is nothing like what we have today. The entire world revolves around the dollar. Everything. It has no rival currency and there is no rival system to take over the world as it exists today. In those historical times everyone protected their own trade vessels, today we protect everyone's. In the old days trade largely happened within a closed colonial system with the benefits funneled back to the home country. Today everyone trades with everyone else and they keep their own profits.

I just don't think we have really anything to compare this to. Maybe the fall of Rome which wasn't pretty but even then the rest of the world continued to function since their systems were not engaged with Rome. Today everything revolves around the US so if we fall we take the entire world with us. Nobody really knows what to expect but that's why those of us thinking catastrophic get their perspective from.

I got 2 words for you, dawg:

Election

Year

Based on what's being hopped up in 2024, 2025 will be a hellacious year, no matter who wins in November.

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China is nowhere near the US as far as productivity via technology. They use humans for everything now. That will change radically - it has too - and will more than make up for the loss of human beings in China. No, they are not going to collapse.

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Yeah this isn't happening. China is a communist system run by one person. The innovation you think can save the day will not happen it's simply not how their type of system works. They would be the first communist system in history to turn to innovation to make their system more efficient.

There is information everywhere discussing the collapse of the Chinese economy. Multiple analysts covering this story, it's no longer just Zeihan saying it based on demographic changes. Go watch some Joe Blogs or any number of others. China is in very real trouble. Worse still this thread is about the collapse of the dollar and China is in real trouble in that scenario. They import WAY over half of their food and energy and way over half of their fertilizer for the food they do produce. A collapse of the American system may cause famine in China. Please don't think they're capable of doing this on their own, they aren't. They have been the biggest beneficiary of the current U.S. centric system but they haven't gotten anywhere close to being able to function without us leading the way.

AgGrad99 said:

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"The exceptional recent performance of the United States is certainly impressive and a major driver of global growth, but it reflects strong demand factors as well, including a fiscal stance that is out of line with long-term fiscal sustainability," the IMF wrote in its latest World Economic Outlook.

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That's a nice way of saying, 'we realize you're spending to prop up the economy, and it looks good now, but will be disastrous soon'.

Everyone knows it. Those in charge either dont care, or are doing it on purpose.

Problem is, neither Trump nor Biden are fiscally conservative. We've never needed fiscal austerity more, and we've got two big spenders running for POTUS.

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Those "in charge" will be dead by the time it all catches up to the country.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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BTKAG97 said:

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CDUB98 said:

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Shutting down gov't spending immediately would absolutely cause an economic catastrophe. It would be instant recession, if not depression, to remove that much of the GDP instantly.

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There is historical evidence after WW2 that disproves this. Understandably it's not an apples to apples comparison.

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Can you explain? Genuinely curious.

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https://www.cato.org/policy-report/may/june-2010/stimulus-spending-cuts-lessons-1946

THE DEPRESSION OF 1946

Historically minded readers may be saying, "There was a Depression in 1946? I never heard about that." You never heard of it because it never happened. However, the "Depression of 1946" may be one of the most widely predicted events that never happened in American history. As the war was winding down, leading Keynesian economists of the day argued, as Alvin Hansen did, that "the government cannot just disband the Army, close down munitions factories, stop building ships, and remove all economic controls." After all, the belief was that the only thing that finally ended the Great Depression of the 1930s was the dramatic increase in government involvement in the economy. In fact, Hansen's advice went unheeded. Government canceled war contracts, and its spending fell from $84 billion in 1945 to under $30 billion in 1946. By 1947, the government was paying back its massive wartime debts by running a budget surplus of close to 6 percent of GDP. The military released around 10 million Americans back into civilian life. Most economic controls were lifted, and all were gone less than a year after VJ Day. In short, the economy underwent what the historian Jack Stokes Ballard refers to as the "shock of peace." From the economy's perspective, it was the "shock of destimulus."

What percentage of GDP was that government spending?

CDUB98 said:

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What percentage of GDP was that government spending?

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