Put aside dueling polling showing Biden or Trump ahead currently. What's happening on a more granular level?
Not well, it seems, But wait there's more.
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According to an analysis by Salena Zito at the Washington Examiner, Democrats ought to be very concerned about voter registration trends in the Keystone State. Particularly with voters in former coal country who have traditionally been Democrats finally changing their registration to Republican.
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Important to note: These voters have not changed personally, but their parties have done so. Democrats have abandoned their working-class voters for college-educated elites who rarely call the middle of somewhere home.
Officials in both parties in Washington whether they are lawmakers on Capitol Hill or strategists working for one of the alphabet soup campaign arms of the House, Senate, or state legislatures, or a staffer for any of them often struggle with how to appeal to these citizens.
Democrats did appeal to them well for so long … until they didn't. It was an erosion that wasn't all that easily detected because what didn't move in a significant way was the voter registration numbers. Part of why voters who left the Democratic Party did not change their voter registration had to do with local elections and the state's closed primary system.
Because Republicans had been in the wilderness for so long in local mayoral and county row office races Democrats had held control of these seats since the rise of the New Deal Democrat coalition people held on to their Democrat registration because most races were decided in primaries because only Democrats ran.
Bold move Cotton, let's see how that turns out.Quote:
So what changed? Initially, some who disagreed with certain Democratic policies still kept their party registration. But after economic issues like burdensome regulations and higher taxes started to really cause financial pain, they felt the need to fully switch sides.
Then, social issues like gender ideology and open borders pushed them even further away. And then there was Gov. Josh Shapiro's (D-Pa.) unilateral move to implement automatic voter registration when getting driver's licenses or ID cards, which was the final straw for many, prompting them to leave the Democratic Party.
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Despite Republican lawmakers bellyaching about Shapiro's move, in the first month alone, 3,194 Democrats, 4,052 independents, and a whopping 7,657 Republicans have registered.
If you are doing the math, as many Republicans registered in the state as Democrats and independents together, and even independent registration outpaced the Democrats by nearly 900.
Not well, it seems, But wait there's more.
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In July of last year, Democrats held a 480,000 voter registration advantage over Republicans, but by Oct. 10, that margin had fallen to 446,467. And the trend has continued in the six months since then.
Indeed, if you go back to the day President Joe Biden won this state in November 2020, Democratic voter registration has gone from over 600,000 voter registration advantage to a 389,000 registration advantage, according to the newest numbers released by the Pennsylvania Department of State.
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There is still quite a bit of time left before the election, and if these trends continue, Democrats in Pennsylvania are going to be in real trouble.