GOP / DEM Approval by Demographic... What is going on with 18-24 Year Olds?!

1,597 Views | 16 Replies | Last: 9 mo ago by texagbeliever
texagbeliever
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You will need to go to the poll, unless another poster wants to post pictures of the relevant pages in the thread.
Link to the Poll

On slides 13 & 14: Approval for GOP vs DEM
GOP: 18-24 year olds: 55%, 25-44 55%, 45-55: 45%, 56+ 35%.
DEM: 18-24 year olds: 45%, 25-44 55%, 45-55: 45%, 56+ 35%
The only difference in approval by age is that 18-24 year olds are +10 more positive to GOP then DEM.

Implications I can think of:
1. People 45+ think everyone is screwing them over. To a degree inflation should have the biggest impact on these individuals.
2. People 25-44 are a weird group. I wonder if this group is the least impacted by policies directly.
3. 18-24 is very interesting. People whine about young people being dumb, blah blah but apparently they have better political acumen then every other age group.


Other thing worth noting:
White people are the only group positive to GOP 52%, while Hispanic 47%, Asian 48%, Black 43%.
Opposite is true for DEM: White people are 39% , Asians 50%.



Who?mikejones!
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The dems are the Man now
TexAgs91
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AG
That's good about the 18-24 year olds but that age group usually doesn't turn out to vote in high numbers.
"Freedom is never more than one election away from extinction"
Fight! Fight! Fight!
texagbeliever
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TexAgs91 said:

That's good about the 18-24 year olds but that age group usually doesn't turn out to vote in high numbers.
Kind of true. But let's check the math on this.
GA: 20% of votes cast were by 18-29 year olds. They voted 58% to 39% Biden over Trump. Net +4% for Biden
AZ: 16% of votes cast were by 18-29 year olds. They voted 59% to 37% Biden over Trump. Net +3.5% for Biden
Source Tufts exit poll 2020
Obviously if that group goes 50-50 with Trump vs Biden, Trump wins both of those states.


This is from Tufts exit poll 2012
Quote:

Youth with and without college experience did not differ much in their vote choices. There was a decline in youth support of Obama from 2008 and 2012, but that is represented in all education categories. Sixty percent of youth with college experience voted for Obama, while 37% voted for Romney. Similarly, 60% of youth without college experience voted for Obama, and 36% voted for Romney. In 2008, 32% of youth without college experience and youth with college experience voted for McCain.
Summarized: 60% 18-29 yo voted for Obama over Romney (college degree had no impact). Obama won this group by a bigger margin in 2008
PA24
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AG
Boomers are dwindling in numbers every day……yet we are blamed for DJT!

Wrong!

Rural America will nominate Donald, the majority of boomers will support that pick but we are not driving the train here.

So stop pointing all the blame at grandpa and grandma.
rgag12
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AG
People, especially the very young, are susceptible to having wild swings in thinking in a very short amount of time. They are also very fickle, so they could've supported Dems two years ago, but now are GOP supporters just because they want something different.
bmks270
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AG
Democrats control everything now.
Being conservative is the new progressive.
After 20 years of insane Marxist teachers, the younger generation is beginning to see being conservative as edgy, rebellious, and free thinking.
Who?mikejones!
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I do t think it's a coincidence that a guy like Jordan Peterson blew up the way he did. His main consumer base is younger males
ttu_85
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bmks270 said:

Democrats control everything now.
Being conservative is the new progressive.
After 20 years of insane Marxist teachers, the younger generation is beginning to see being conservative as edgy, rebellious, and free thinking.
Stuff is coming out that they see they are the biggest losers in a woke world. Young men are being marginalized and they are finally getting sick of it. Wasn't much different in 1980 when Reagan came in. The hippies-- older boomers were despised by the younger boomers and we blamed them for much of the ineptitude. Remember Carter was in from '76 to 80 and had the Iran hostage crises hung around his neck.

The youth vote of the time went sharply right. Tech and TAMU both were republican by over 88% by 1984. Lets pray history repeats.
ttu_85
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PA24 said:

Boomers are dwindling in numbers every day……yet we are blamed for DJT!

Wrong!

Rural America will nominate Donald, the majority of boomers will support that pick but we are not driving the train here.

So stop pointing all the blame at grandpa and grandma.
Oh lordy this schiet gets old
aezmvp
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The thing if you talk to young men is they're beginning to realize how screwed over they are. That has a large factor in this.
aggie93
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AG
The interesting part about Gen Z is the break between male and female. Men are strongly GOP, women are strongly Dem. It's far more pronounced than prior generations.

Gen X is still the most heavily Republican.
texagbeliever
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aggie93 said:

The interesting part about Gen Z is the break between male and female. Men are strongly GOP, women are strongly Dem. It's far more pronounced than prior generations.

Gen X is still the most heavily Republican.
The gender split is real, but not really observable in the poll data I saw. Would be interested to any sources that have more data.

Bold is not true according to party affiliation. Link to Party Affiliation

One thing you may have meant is that they might be on a bigger track to being the most conservative.
Muktheduck
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1) The trans issue exploded on the dems last year. There is a very large chunk of that age group that is disgusted by it and tired of having to share locker rooms with the other sex. These people were mostly right of center to begin with, but combined with Elon's takeover of Twitter they're no longer just shutting up and taking it.

2) Palestine. Their political leadership has to support Israel due to the massive amounts of money pumped into the Democrat party by wealthy Jewish donors (oh, and Epstein blackmail), but their ideological ethos demands they attack the wealthier and whiter side in any conflict. The left has lost control of their attack dogs and can't turn the zealotry off when they'd like to, so now they're going to take a political hit rather than lose billions from those aforementioned donors
aggie93
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AG
I know they had a survey here a while back that had voting stats from '22. Boomers were about +3 GOP and Gen X was +14. Everyone else was Dem. I've also seen surveys on Gen Z showing the Conservative/Liberal split among Male/Female. Don't have it off hand though.

That survey you have includes a huge "Moderate" group that could be anything. In the end it's how people vote.
javajaws
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AG
I was actually thinking about this topic broadly speaking last night. Counter culture usually starts with our youth. And for so long now mainstream culture has become more and more leftist oriented that it's only a matter of time before "conservatism" becomes cool again. Just another data point that the pendulum is starting to swing back to the right...
texagbeliever
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exit poll NH

18-29
Trump: 58
Haley: 36

30-44:
Trump: 56
Haley: 42

45-64
Trump: 55
Haley: 43

65+
Trump: 53
Haley: 45

___________

Iowa: DeSantis di the best with 17-29 at 30%. Trump 22% (42%, 54%, & 58% for next 3 age groups outlined above)
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