NH Exit Poll: Voters 47% GOP…53% Non-GOP

13,862 Views | 179 Replies | Last: 11 mo ago by ClickClack
richardag
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President Trump may not have been the most conservative President, that said:
  • Signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act the largest tax reform package in history.
  • More than 6 million American workers received wage increases, bonuses, and increased benefits thanks to the tax cuts.
  • A typical family of four earning $75,000 received an income tax cut of more than $2,000 slashing their tax bill in half.
  • Doubled the standard deduction making the first $24,000 earned by a married couple completely tax-free.
  • Instead of 2-for-1, we eliminated 8 old regulations for every 1 new regulation adopted.
  • Provided the average American household an extra $3,100 every year.
  • Reduced the direct cost of regulatory compliance by $50 billion, and will reduce costs by an additional $50 billion in FY 2020 alone.
  • Removed nearly 25,000 pages from the Federal Register more than any other president. The previous administration added over 16,000 pages.
  • Established the Governors' Initiative on Regulatory Innovation to reduce outdated regulations at the state, local, and tribal levels.
  • Rescinded the previous administration's Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing (AFFH) rule, which would have abolished zoning for single-family housing to build low-income, federally subsidized apartments.

Just a few of what most people would consider conservative policies.

Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
We fixed the keg
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AG
Makes you wonder what the "real" numbers were. For Trump to win by ~10% with so much big money pouring in...Dem's posing as independent, the never-trump crowd, and even true independents banding together and falling short.

Don't know how much of it is true, but expected it to be closer if even partially true.
eric76
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AG
Wes97 said:

There is a long strain of conservative populism thought going back to the founding of this country. From Hamilton, to Lincoln, to the southern agrarian philosophical movement, to Russell Kirk, George Wallace, Pat Buchanan…..

But if your conservative thought begins and ends with Ronald Reagan then you have a pretty small damn tent.
It doesn't.
1836er
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AG
K2-HMFIC said:



Will we see "The Revenge of the CM" in the general?
No.

First, NH is a tiny, quirky state when it comes to its political culture that is not very reflective of the rest of the country; especially the places that matter most in determining the outcomes of presidential elections.

Second, the large majority of self-identified and/or registered independents in NH, which are officially classified as "undeclared" voters, are behavioral Democrats (in terms of their voting patterns) who generally conform to the voter characteristic profiles (used in voter preference inference models) of behavioral Democrats.

They may call themselves independents and they may register as "undeclared" but they are basically just Democrats.

Third, the second largest (although noticably smaller) group of "undeclared" voters in NH are basically just behavioral Republicans. Trump did very well with them... as evidenced by the margins he won by in townships like Manchester... not to mention the fact that he just turned out the largest primary vote of any candidate from either party in the history of NH Primaries, both in terms of raw numbers (173,414 and rising) and even more impressively as a percentage of the state's eligible voter population (12% and rising)

There is, or course, a very small segment of "undeclared" voters in NH that occasionally bounce back and forth between parties... but they are such a small part of the electorate by comparison that they are not worth chasing when those resources could be more effectively used turning out each side's own already identified lower propensity voters.

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EDIT:

Regarding the quoted table from the previous post, the Haley campaign spent upward of $30 million, in coordination with Democrat get out the vote operatives, to actively recruit many thousands of registered "undeclared" voters that happen to be behavioral Democrats that have never voted in a Republican primary before, will never vote in a Republican primary again, and will not vote for Haley in the general election even if she were the Republican nominee.

From an electioneering standpoint you kind of have to give them credit, for what they pulled off in a short period of time was really quite remarkable; a testament to the quality of Democrat data, big money, and get out the vote operation sophistication. What they pulled off was a cotemporary version of Rush Limbaugh's Operation Chaos from 2008. It probably added anywhere from 5,000-10,000 (maybe more) votes to her total and kept her from getting smacked by 20%.
ClickClack
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AG
K2-HMFIC said:



Will we see "The Revenge of the CM" in the general?


Yes and it will be another loss by Trump. Who could've predicted that.

I don't understand why this guy can't just walk away. THAT is what is best for America at this point. And I voted for him twice. But it's clear that it's about him now, not America.
 
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