Demosthenes81 said:
Biden is a dangerous fool. The only correct response is "The future of Taiwan is to be determined by the people of Taiwan"
Actually the FAR more dangerous move is to say something like that. If you are ready to provoke a war with China over Taiwan that's how you get there.
The biggest mistake people make when looking at Chinese policy is to look at it through American eyes. China is simply different and always will be. For instance the most important thing to remember when thinking about any type of negotiation or conflict with China (or Japan) is Face. You better not put them in a position to lose Face unless you are ready to go all the way. We got there with Japan, it only took an incredibly nasty war and a couple of nuclear bombs.
So how does this work? China knows that Taiwan is Independent and Taiwan is effectively Independent in every way that matters. Still saying they are Independent would be a massive loss of Face to China. Remember that to them Taiwan is still the last remnants of the old government that sits in land that has historically been part of China. It technically is a rebel province to them. To say that Taiwan is Independent would be to admit they will never get it back and that would be a massive loss of Face, especially because China is far more powerful than Taiwan. In their culture if you lose Face you are disgraced and removed from power. You are unfit. So the CCP cannot allow that to ever be the case publicly.
Remember that the ROC (which is now just Taiwan) WAS China up until Nixon. They held the Permanent Security Council Seat until 1971 even though the PR was clearly "China". We basically didn't have a real relationship with China during that time and we were basically at war with them in Korea and to an extent in Vietnam by being a massive pain in the ass for us. That opened everything else up. Any movement back on that means it shuts back down otherwise China loses Face. On a massive and unacceptable scale for them.
That's why we have this weird set of word games that make no sense. Taiwan is independent but it isn't. It allows the CCP to bluster and keep the perception (even if it isn't realistic) that they will take Taiwan back and they haven't lost Face. If the US supported Independence then China would have no choice but to react in an extremely aggressive manner and cut off relations with us (or invade Taiwan). Otherwise they would lose Face.
So we play these games and try to run out the clock on the CCP imploding at some point.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."
Ronald Reagan
