The stock market is 100% driven by liquidity right now. Has nothing to do with the economy.

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/report-finds-austin-had-unusually-high-mass-layoffs-during-2023/

Austin got disproportionally blasted this time around. WARN warnings, 20% of layoffs in the state occurred in Austin.

Between 2012-2019, this number was 5.7%. I mean, It could be that O&G is more evenly distributed throughout the state so the numbers dont skew so badly when O&G is struggling. Most of tech industry is obviously located in Austin.

But looking for a job here is really really tough.

Interest rates are high so companies are getting leaner -- reqs are not getting approved/pushed out/eliminated -- supply of jobs low.

The glut of talent due to layoffs is very high -- more competition. It especially sucks for new grads with fewer than 2-3 years of experience because highly experienced people are resorted to lowering their salary requirements and are competing against them.

The job market is an absolute disaster unless you are in healthcare, hospitality, or service industry.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/emmylucas/2023/12/14/the-fastest-growing-demographic-in-the-workforce-people-over-age-75/?sh=548911291fcf

The Fastest Growing Demographic In The Workforce? People Over Age 75

A new analysis by Pew Research Center finds that the share of older Americans who are working has nearly doubled since 1987.

Old McDonald said:

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samurai_science said:

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Americans' credit card debt hits a record $1 trillion


https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinancecouncil/2023/10/24/americans-now-have-1-trillion-in-credit-card-debt-heres-why/?sh=1fd47a4d65a1


Credit card debt has grown to an all-time high, recently surpassing then-record levels observed before the Covid-19 pandemic. In the latest numbers from the New York Federal Reserve, total consumer credit debt exceeded $1.03 trillion, compared to $806 billion pre-pandemic. Consumers today are navigating inflation, rising interest rates, an end to pandemic-related stimulus checks and lenders taking a more risk-averse approach to personal and small-business loans.

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the total may be at an all time high (because inflation + population growth), but debt payments as a percent of people's disposable income is pretty normal compared to the last 40 years

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LOL, nice try.

Unity Software lays off 25% of workforce

Job cuts will affect 1,800 employees


https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/unity-software-lays-off-25-of-workforce


2024 is going to get ugly

WE know....


https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/us-farmers-warn-bidens-economy-destruction-2024-iowa-caucuses

US farmers warn Biden's economy spells 'destruction'

Quote:

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WASHINGTON (AP) After an extended period of gloom, Americans are starting to feel better about inflation and the economy a trend that could sustain consumer spending, fuel economic growth and potentially affect President Joe Biden's political fortunes.

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Joe just needs to win one more election and he can get all of these things fixed…

And yet the Republicans will fail to hammer this message along with the border invasion during the election. Id run non stop messages with images on every possible platform possible and speak it every time the cameras are on. But we will crap the bed and get into debates on things that matter little to folks that the dems and media will deem critical.

Has anyone ever lost an election with the market at all time highs?

No Spin Ag said:

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Gas prices are cheaper and prices of some groceries, particular chips and eggs, are back to where they were before they sky rocketed a couple of years ago. Seeing more coupons for things people actually eat as well.

That being said, the drop in some groceries may be just as tied to the increasing amount of people getting on Ozempic and don't eat anywhere near as much as before, as it has to do with anything the administration has done. And honestly, I don't see that the administration has done anything.

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Groceries are still high. I just got a small bag of Ruffles chips priced for over $5. It had a .75 cent coupon and it dropped to around $4.90. Not a party size bag. Back in the old days a party sized bag was over $5.

Yesterday, a whataburger/patty melt/large fry/4 jalapenos -- $20.75
3yrs ago that was about $14

And this as well. Add in the likely rate cuts and the economic message isn't going to float for Trump.

well, at least Trump can attack Biden on backing Covid vaccines.... oh yeah- he can't do that either.

The U.S. economy grew at a 3.3% pace in the fourth quarter, much better than expected
PUBLISHED THU, JAN 25 20248:30 AM ESTUPDATED 7 MIN AGO

The U.S. economy grew at a 3.3% pace in the fourth quarter, much better than expected
The economy grew at a much more rapid pace than expected in the final three months of 2023, as the U.S. easily skirted a recession that many forecasters had thought was inevitable, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced, increased at a 3.3% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to data adjusted seasonally and for inflation.

That compared to the Wall Street consensus estimate for a gain of 2% in the final three months of the year. The third quarter grew at a 4.9% pace.

The U.S. economy for all of 2023 accelerated at a 2.5% annualized pace, well ahead of the Wall Street outlook at the beginning of the year for few if any gains.

tremble said:

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And this as well. Add in the likely rate cuts and the economic message isn't going to float for Trump.

---

Dummies and LIVs think that somehow 'the economy' will sink Biden.

when in 2022 the economy was MUCH WORSE and Biden candidates crushed Trump candidates in New Hampshire, Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Michigan.

but sure, the Stock Markets hitting ALL TIME HIGHS,

inflation easing,

and the economy growing are going to make people support Trump now.

when they didn't back Trump in 2022.

LMCane said:

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well, at least Trump can attack Biden on backing Covid vaccines.... oh yeah- he can't do that either.

The U.S. economy grew at a 3.3% pace in the fourth quarter, much better than expected
PUBLISHED THU, JAN 25 20248:30 AM ESTUPDATED 7 MIN AGO

The U.S. economy grew at a 3.3% pace in the fourth quarter, much better than expected
The economy grew at a much more rapid pace than expected in the final three months of 2023, as the U.S. easily skirted a recession that many forecasters had thought was inevitable, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced, increased at a 3.3% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to data adjusted seasonally and for inflation.

That compared to the Wall Street consensus estimate for a gain of 2% in the final three months of the year. The third quarter grew at a 4.9% pace.

The U.S. economy for all of 2023 accelerated at a 2.5% annualized pace, well ahead of the Wall Street outlook at the beginning of the year for few if any gains.

---

We all know that will be adjusted down late some Saturday night when know one is paying attention and after the lie has served it purpose.

LMCane said:

---

tremble said:

---

And this as well. Add in the likely rate cuts and the economic message isn't going to float for Trump.

---

Dummies and LIVs think that somehow 'the economy' will sink Biden.

when in 2022 the economy was MUCH WORSE and Biden candidates crushed Trump candidates in New Hampshire, Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Michigan.

but sure, the Stock Markets hitting ALL TIME HIGHS,

inflation easing,

and the economy growing are going to make people support Trump now.

when they didn't back Trump in 2022.

---

It's the old aphorism about insanity and doing the same thing over, and over, and over. And then they have the gall to yell at the rest of us who told them to stop shooting themselves.

The Fed doesn't even have to cut interest rates now but any cuts they do are going to add rocket fuel to the economy. The economic argument is a non-starter right now for Trump.

LMCane said:

---

tremble said:

---

And this as well. Add in the likely rate cuts and the economic message isn't going to float for Trump.

---

Dummies and LIVs think that somehow 'the economy' will sink Biden.

when in 2022 the economy was MUCH WORSE and Biden candidates crushed Trump candidates in New Hampshire, Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Michigan.

but sure, the Stock Markets hitting ALL TIME HIGHS,

inflation easing,

and the economy growing are going to make people support Trump now.

when they didn't back Trump in 2022.

---

Have to agree with you here. "It's the economy, stupid," is dead...or at least has been pushed out of the room.

It's going to take market forces and not political forces to change our fiscal and monetary paths. Social security and Medicare are already insolvent. They talk about 2040 and 2050 being the year but those assumptions don't include any recessions really rosy economic assumptions.

We'll probably have some wake up calls like the Brits had in their Gilt market where pensions were nearly destroyed overnight.

Our unfunded liabilities are an easy math fix but the populace doesn't have the guts to try. Just look at the idiots in France...you try to raise the retirement age 2 years and you have 19 & 20 year olds rioting in the street. People, generally, have no economic sense.

it's just amazing to me that Trump has a ripping economy for 3 years then it just gets destroyed in his re-election year...and Biden has a trash economy for 3 years and then just starts to rip in his re-election campaign...just can't quite figure that out

BadMoonRisin said:

---

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/report-finds-austin-had-unusually-high-mass-layoffs-during-2023/

Austin got disproportionally blasted this time around. WARN warnings, 20% of layoffs in the state occurred in Austin.

Between 2012-2019, this number was 5.7%. I mean, It could be that O&G is more evenly distributed throughout the state so the numbers dont skew so badly when O&G is struggling. Most of tech industry is obviously located in Austin.

But looking for a job here is really really tough.

Interest rates are high so companies are getting leaner -- reqs are not getting approved/pushed out/eliminated -- supply of jobs low.

The glut of talent due to layoffs is very high -- more competition. It especially sucks for new grads with fewer than 2-3 years of experience because highly experienced people are resorted to lowering their salary requirements and are competing against them.

The job market is an absolute disaster unless you are in healthcare, hospitality, or service industry.

---

Here's a tip:

don't live in Austin.

there are actually 49 other states and 300 other cities in Texas.

Florida today has a unemployment rate of 2.9%

if you can't find a job- that's on you.

cypress-ag said:

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And yet the Republicans will fail to hammer this message along with the border invasion during the election. Id run non stop messages with images on every possible platform possible and speak it every time the cameras are on. But we will crap the bed and get into debates on things that matter little to folks that the dems and media will deem critical.

---

The problem is that the GOP will have to be spending half their time defending Trump just from attacks on all his current issues. They will also be spending lots of money doing this.

And this will allow Biden's record to not be highlighted as it should be.