Below are the results from the 2016 Caucus. How do you think these voting blocks align in 2024 for Trump, DeSantis, Haley, Vivek, and Christie. Include Binkley and Hutchison if you want but they're in Jim Gilmore territory.

Ted Cruz 51,666 27.6%
Donald Trump 45,427 24.3
Marco Rubio 43,165 23.1
Ben Carson 17,395 9.3
Rand Paul 8,481 4.5
Jeb Bush 5,238 2.8
Carly Fiorina 3,485 1.9
John Kasich 3,474 1.9
Mike Huckabee 3,345 1.8
Chris Christie 3,284 1.8
Rick Santorum 1,783 1.0
Jim Gilmore 12 0.0
Other 119 0.1

Trump probably retains his share and probably splits the Huckabee and Santorum share. Most of Carson's share probably goes to Trump. How much of the Rubio and Cruz blocks has he converted?

I see DeSantis as picking up the Cruz block and part of the Rand Paul block. Vivek is probably pulling the most from Paul and is squeezing a portion from the Cruz and Trump blocks. If Vivek wasn't around I see the Rand's share going to DeSantis.

Haley is aiming for the Rubio block and drawing from Bush, Fiorina, and Kasich. Can she organize them enough to turn them out for her or will they move to DeSantis or Trump? The word from Iowa door knocking seems like they don't really like her and her support is half of what is polled.

Christie probably retains his block and takes a portion of the Bush, Fiorina, and Kasich block.

Looks like a tight race if the voter attitudes are similar.

TRM said:

---

Below are the results from the 2016 Caucus. How do you think these voting blocks align in 2024 for Trump, DeSantis, Haley, Vivek, and Christie. Include Binkley and Hutchison if you want but they're in Jim Gilmore territory.

Ted Cruz 51,666 27.6%
Donald Trump 45,427 24.3
Marco Rubio 43,165 23.1
Ben Carson 17,395 9.3
Rand Paul 8,481 4.5
Jeb Bush 5,238 2.8
Carly Fiorina 3,485 1.9
John Kasich 3,474 1.9
Mike Huckabee 3,345 1.8
Chris Christie 3,284 1.8
Rick Santorum 1,783 1.0
Jim Gilmore 12 0.0
Other 119 0.1

Trump probably retains his share and probably splits the Huckabee and Santorum share. Most of Carson's share probably goes to Trump. How much of the Rubio and Cruz blocks has he converted?

I see DeSantis as picking up the Cruz block and part of the Rand Paul block. Vivek is probably pulling the most from Paul and is squeezing a portion from the Cruz and Trump blocks. If Vivek wasn't around I see the Rand's share going to DeSantis.

Haley is aiming for the Rubio block and drawing from Bush, Fiorina, and Kasich. Can she organize them enough to turn them out for her or will they move to DeSantis or Trump? The word from Iowa door knocking seems like they don't really like her and her support is half of what is polled.

Christie probably retains his block and takes a portion of the Bush, Fiorina, and Kasich block.

Looks like a tight race if the voter attitudes are similar.

---

Caucused for Cruz in 2016.

Wonder if Trump's campaign has actually studied the rules. In 2016, they hadn't. Bunch of bumble**** tards. The speaker got booed.

I'm really interested in how this goes. I think your breakdown is probably about right.

It's really wild how this has all played out.

2024 will be one for the ages no matter what happens. Not sure that's a good thing for any of us.

policywonk98 said:

---

I'm really interested in how this goes. I think your breakdown is probably about right.

It's really wild how this has all played out.

2024 will be one for the ages no matter what happens. Not sure that's a good thing for any of us.

---

Throw out conventional wisdom on this one. Has enough been done by state legislators to bolster confidence in this election?

In my view, not enough in AZ, GA, PA, MI nor WI but this time add NV, NC to the list.